Description: The Last Interglacial period (LIG) is a period with increased summer insolation at high northern latitudes, which results in strong changes in the terrestrial and marine cryosphere. Understanding the mechanisms for this response via climate modelling and comparing the models' representation of climate reconstructions is one of the objectives set up by the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project for its contribution to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Here we analyse the results from 16 climate models in terms of Arctic sea ice. The multi-model mean reduction in minimum sea ice area from the pre industrial period (PI) to the LIG reaches 50 % (multi-model mean LIG area is 3.20×106 km2, compared to 6.46×106 km2 for the PI). On the other hand, there is little change for the maximum sea ice area (which is 15–16×106 km2 for both the PI and the LIG. To evaluate the model results we synthesise LIG sea ice data from marine cores collected in the Arctic Ocean, Nordic Seas and northern North Atlantic. The reconstructions for the northern North Atlantic show year-round ice-free conditions, and most models yield results in agreement with these reconstructions. Model–data disagreement appear for the sites in the Nordic Seas close to Greenland and at the edge of the Arctic Ocean. The northernmost site with good chronology, for which a sea ice concentration larger than 75 % is reconstructed even in summer, discriminates those models which simulate too little sea ice. However, the remaining models appear to simulate too much sea ice over the two sites south of the northernmost one, for which the reconstructed sea ice cover is seasonal. Hence models either underestimate or overestimate sea ice cover for the LIG, and their bias does not appear to be related to their bias for the pre-industrial period. Drivers for the inter-model differences are different phasing of the up and down short-wave anomalies over the Arctic Ocean, which are associated with differences in model albedo; possible cloud property differences, in terms of optical depth; and LIG ocean circulation changes which occur for some, but not all, LIG simulations. Finally, we note that inter-comparisons between the LIG simulations and simulations for future climate with moderate (1 % yr−1) CO2 increase show a relationship between LIG sea ice and sea ice simulated under CO2 increase around the years of doubling CO2. The LIG may therefore yield insight into likely 21st century Arctic sea ice changes using these LIG simulations.

Description: A compilation of the published literature on dust content in terrestrial and marine sediment cores was synchronized with pollen data and speleothem growth phases on the Greenland Ice Core Chronology 2005 (GICC05) time axis. Aridity patterns for eight key areas of the global climate system have been reconstructed for the last 60 000 years. These records have different time resolutions and different dating methods, i.e. different types of stratigraphy. Nevertheless, all regions analysed in this study show humid conditions during early Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3) and the early Holocene or deglaciation, but not always at the same time. Such discrepancies have been interpreted as regional effects, although stratigraphic uncertainties may affect some of the proposed interpretations. In comparison, most of the MIS2 interval becomes arid in all of the Northern Hemisphere records, but the peak arid conditions of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and Heinrich event 1 differ in duration and intensity among regions. In addition, we also compare the aridity synthesis with modelling results using a global climate model (GCM). Indeed, geological archives and GCMs show agreement on the aridity pattern for the Holocene or deglaciation, for the LGM and for late MIS3.

Description: In the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2), coupled climate models have been used to simulate an interglacial climate during the mid-Piacenzian warm period (mPWP; 3.264 to 3.025 Ma). Here, we compare the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), poleward ocean heat transport and sea surface warming in the Atlantic simulated with these models. In PlioMIP2, all models simulate an intensified mid-Pliocene AMOC. However, there is no consistent response in the simulated Atlantic ocean heat transport nor in the depth of the Atlantic overturning cell. The models show a large spread in the simulated AMOC maximum, the Atlantic ocean heat transport and the surface warming in the North Atlantic. Although a few models simulate a surface warming of ∼ 8–12 ∘C in the North Atlantic, similar to the reconstruction from Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) version 4, most models appear to underestimate this warming. The large model spread and model–data discrepancies in the PlioMIP2 ensemble do not support the hypothesis that an intensification of the AMOC, together with an increase in northward ocean heat transport, is the dominant mechanism for the mid-Pliocene warm climate over the North Atlantic.

Description: We investigate the climate signature of δ18O tree-ring records from sites distributed all over Europe covering the last 400 years. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis reveals two distinct modes of variability on the basis of the existing δ18O tree-ring records. The first mode is associated with anomaly patterns projecting onto the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and reflects a multi-seasonal climatic signal. The ENSO link is pronounced for the last 130 years, but it is found to be weak over the period from 1600 to 1850, suggesting that the relationship between ENSO and the European climate may not be stable over time. The second mode of δ18O variability, which captures a north–south dipole in the European δ18O tree-ring records, is related to a regional summer atmospheric circulation pattern, revealing a pronounced centre over the North Sea. Locally, the δ18O anomalies associated with this mode show the same (opposite) sign with temperature (precipitation). Based on the oxygen isotopic signature derived from tree rings, we argue that the prevailing large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns and the related teleconnections can be analysed beyond instrumental records.

Description: The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼ 21 000 years ago) has been a major focus for evaluating how well state-of-the-art climate models simulate climate changes as large as those expected in the future using paleoclimate reconstructions. A new generation of climate models has been used to generate LGM simulations as part of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) contribution to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Here, we provide a preliminary analysis and evaluation of the results of these LGM experiments (PMIP4, most of which are PMIP4-CMIP6) and compare them with the previous generation of simulations (PMIP3, most of which are PMIP3-CMIP5). We show that the global averages of the PMIP4 simulations span a larger range in terms of mean annual surface air temperature and mean annual precipitation compared to the PMIP3-CMIP5 simulations, with some PMIP4 simulations reaching a globally colder and drier state. However, the multi-model global cooling average is similar for the PMIP4 and PMIP3 ensembles, while the multi-model PMIP4 mean annual precipitation average is drier than the PMIP3 one. There are important differences in both atmospheric and oceanic circulations between the two sets of experiments, with the northern and southern jet streams being more poleward and the changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation being less pronounced in the PMIP4-CMIP6 simulations than in the PMIP3-CMIP5 simulations. Changes in simulated precipitation patterns are influenced by both temperature and circulation changes. Differences in simulated climate between individual models remain large. Therefore, although there are differences in the average behaviour across the two ensembles, the new simulation results are not fundamentally different from the PMIP3-CMIP5 results. Evaluation of large-scale climate features, such as land–sea contrast and polar amplification, confirms that the models capture these well and within the uncertainty of the paleoclimate reconstructions. Nevertheless, regional climate changes are less well simulated: the models underestimate extratropical cooling, particularly in winter, and precipitation changes. These results point to the utility of using paleoclimate simulations to understand the mechanisms of climate change and evaluate model performance.

Description: There is an increasing need to understand the pre-Quaternary warm climates, how climate–vegetation interactions functioned in the past, and how we can use this information to understand the present. Here we report vegetation modelling results for the Late Miocene (11–7 Ma) to study the mechanisms of vegetation dynamics and the role of different forcing factors that influence the spatial patterns of vegetation coverage. One of the key uncertainties is the atmospheric concentration of CO2 during past climates. Estimates for the last 20 million years range from 280 to 500 ppm. We simulated Late Miocene vegetation using two plausible CO2 concentrations, 280 ppm CO2 and 450 ppm CO2, with a dynamic global vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) driven by climate input from a coupled AOGCM (Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model). The simulated vegetation was compared to existing plant fossil data for the whole Northern Hemisphere. For the comparison we developed a novel approach that uses information of the relative dominance of different plant functional types (PFTs) in the palaeobotanical data to provide a quantitative estimate of the agreement between the simulated and reconstructed vegetation. Based on this quantitative assessment we find that pre-industrial CO2 levels are largely consistent with the presence of seasonal temperate forests in Europe (suggested by fossil data) and open vegetation in North America (suggested by multiple lines of evidence). This suggests that during the Late Miocene the CO2 levels have been relatively low, or that other factors that are not included in the models maintained the seasonal temperate forests and open vegetation.

Description: During the Last Interglacial (LIG, ~130–115 kiloyears (kyr) before present (BP)), the northern high latitudes were characterized by higher temperatures than those of the late Holocene and a lower Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS). However, the impact of a reduced GIS on the global climate has not yet been well constrained. In this study, we quantify the contribution of the GIS to LIG warmth by performing various sensitivity studies based on equilibrium simulations, employing the Community Earth System Models (COSMOS), with a focus on height and extent of the GIS. We present the first study on the effects of a reduction in the GIS on the surface temperature (TS) on a global scale and separate the contribution of astronomical forcing and changes in GIS to LIG warmth. The strong Northern Hemisphere summer warming of approximately 2°C (with respect to preindustrial) is mainly caused by increased summer insolation. Reducing the height by ~1300m and the extent of the GIS does not have a strong influence during summer, leading to an additional global warming of only +0.24°C compared to the purely insolation-driven LIG. The effect of a reduction in the GIS is, however, strongest during local winter, with up to +5°C regional warming and with an increase in global average temperature of +0.48°C. In order to evaluate the performance of our LIG simulations, we additionally compare the simulated TS anomalies with marine and terrestrial proxy-based LIG temperature anomalies derived from three different proxy data compilations. Our model results are in good agreement with proxy records with respect to the warming pattern but underestimate the magnitude of temperature change when compared to reconstructions, suggesting a potential misinterpretation of the proxy records or deficits in our model. However, we are able to partly reduce the mismatch between model and data by additionally taking into account the potential seasonal bias of the proxy record and/or the uncertainties in the dating of the proxy records for the LIG thermal maximum. The seasonal bias and the uncertainty of the timing are estimated from new transient model simulations covering the whole LIG. The model–data comparison improves for proxies that represent annual mean temperatures when the GIS is reduced and when we take the local thermal maximum during the LIG (130–120 kyr BP) into account. For proxy data that represent summer temperatures, changes in the GIS are of minor importance for sea surface temperatures. However, the annual mean and summer temperature change over Greenland in the reduced GIS simulations seems to be overestimated as compared to the local ice core data, which could be related to the interpretation of the recorder system and/or the assumptions of GIS reduction. Thus, the question regarding the real size of the GIS during the LIG has yet to be answered.