Description: The climate of the Sahara and Arabian deserts during the Little Ice Age is not well known, due to a lack of annually resolved natural and documentary archives. We present an annual reconstruction of temperature and aridity derived from Sr/Ca and oxygen isotopes in a coral of the desert-surrounded northern Red Sea. Our data indicate that the eastern Sahara and Arabian Desert did not experience pronounced cooling during the late Little Ice Age (~1750-1850), but suggest an even more arid mean climate than in the following ~150 years. The mild temperatures are broadly in line with predominantly negative phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation during the Little Ice Age. The more arid climate is best explained by meridional advection of dry continental air from Eurasia. We find evidence for an abrupt termination of the more arid climate after 1850, coincident with a reorganization of the atmospheric circulation over Europe.

Description: High temporal resolution (three hours) records of temperature, wind speed and sea level pressure recorded at Antarctic research station Neumayer (70°S, 8°W) during 1982–2011 are analysed to identify oscillations from daily to intraseasonal timescales. The diurnal cycle dominates the three-hourly time series of temperature during the Antarctic summer and is almost absent during winter. In contrast, the three-hourly time series of wind speed and sea level pressure show a weak diurnal cycle. The dominant pattern of the intraseasonal variability of these quantities, which captures the out-of-phase variation of temperature and wind speed with sea level pressure, shows enhanced variability at timescales of ~ 40 days and ~ 80 days, respectively. Correlation and composite analysis reveal that these oscillations may be related to tropical intraseasonal oscillations via large-scale eastward propagating atmospheric circulation wave-trains. The second pattern of intraseasonal variability, which captures in-phase variations of temperature, wind and sea level pressure, shows enhanced variability at timescales of ~ 35, ~ 60 and ~ 120 days. These oscillations are attributed to the Southern Annular Mode/Antarctic Oscillation (SAM/AAO) which shows enhanced variability at these timescales. We argue that intraseasonal oscillations of tropical climate and SAM/AAO are related to distinct patterns of climate variables measured at Neumayer.

Description: Monthly time series of temperature, wind speed and sea level pressure recorded at Neumayer polar research station (70°39'S, 8°15'W) during the last 30 years are analysed in order to identify the climate oscillations and associated teleconnection patterns at time scales from half-year to decades. Oscillations with periods of six months (semi-annual) and one year (annual) were identified in all records. Both annual and semi-annual oscillations are non-stationary in time. The dominant pattern of interannual to decadal variability, which captures the out of phase variations of temperature and wind speed with sea level pressure, shows a persistent 2-3 years oscillation. This oscillation is related with a wave-train atmospheric circulation pattern similar to the Pacific South American (PSA) modes. This suggests a tropical origin of this oscillation. The second pattern of interannual to decadal variability, which captures in-phase variations of these variables, shows enhanced variability at 5-6 year time scales. This oscillation is induced by the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) which shows enhanced variability at these time scales. Analysis of the variability of high resolution stable isotope time series from four ice cores from Neumayer region reveals similar oscillations. This suggests that ice core data from the region could be used to reconstruct the phase and amplitude of atmospheric circulation patterns associated to these oscillations during past periods.

Description: High temporal resolution (three hours) records of temperature, wind speed and sea level pressure recorded at Antarctic research station Neumayer (708S, 88W) during 1982–2011 are analysed to identify oscillations from daily to intraseasonal timescales. The diurnal cycle dominates the three-hourly time series of temperature during the Antarctic summer and is almost absent during winter. In contrast, the three-hourly time series of wind speed and sea level pressure show a weak diurnal cycle. The dominant pattern of the intraseasonal variability of these quantities, which captures the out-of-phase variation of temperature and wind speed with sea level pressure, shows enhanced variability at timescales of , 40 days and , 80 days, respectively. Correlation and composite analysis reveal that these oscillations may be related to tropical intraseasonal oscillations via large-scale eastward propagating atmospheric circulation wave-trains. The second pattern of intraseasonal variability, which captures in-phase variations of temperature, wind and sea level pressure, shows enhanced variability at timescales of , 35, , 60 and , 120 days. These oscillations are attributed to the Southern Annular Mode/Antarctic Oscillation (SAM/AAO) which shows enhanced variability at these timescales. We argue that intraseasonal oscillations of tropical climate and SAM/AAO are related to distinct patterns of climate variables measured at Neumayer.

Description: The aim of this study was to compare the climatic responses of three tree rings proxies: tree ring width (TRW), maximum latewood density (MXD), and blue intensity (BI). For this study, 20 cores of Pinus sylvestris covering the period 1886–2015 were extracted from living non-damaged trees from the Eastern Carpathian Mountains (Romania). Each chronology was compared to monthly and daily climate data. All tree ring proxies had a stronger correlation with the daily climate data compared to monthly data. The highest correlation coefficient was obtained between the MXD chronology and daily maximum temperature over the period beginning with the end of July and ending in the middle of September (r = 0.64). The optimal intervals for the temperature signature were 01 Aug – 24 Sept for the MXD chronology, 05 Aug – 25 Aug for the BI chronology, and both 16 Nov of the previous year – 16 March of the current year and 15 Apr – 05 May for the TRW chronology. The results from our study indicate that MXD can be used as a proxy indicator for summer maximum temperature, while TRW can be used as a proxy indicator for just March maximum temperature. The weak and unstable relationship between BI and maximum temperature indicates that BI is not a good proxy indicator for climate reconstructions over the analysed region.

Description: We present the first annual oxygen isotope record (1900–2016) from the latewood (LW) cellulose of oak trees (Quercus robur) from NW Romania. As expected, the results correlate negatively with summer relative humidity, sunshine duration and precipitation and positively with summer maximum temperature. Spatial correlation analysis reveals a clear signal reflecting drought conditions at a European scale. Interannual variability is influenced by large-scale atmospheric circulation and by surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea. There is considerable potential to produce long and well-replicated oak tree ring stable isotope chronologies in Romania which would allow reconstructions of both regional drought and large-scale circulation variability over southern and central Europe.

Description: Currently there is a scarcity of paleo-records related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), particularly in East-Central Europe (ECE). Here we report δ15N analysis of guano from a cave in NW Romania with the intent of reconstructing past variation in ECE hydroclimate and examine NAO impacts on winter precipitation. We argue that the δ15N values of guano indicate that the nitrogen cycle is hydrologically controlled and the δ15N values likely reflect winter precipitation related to nitrogen mineralization prior to the growing season. Drier conditions indicated by δ15N values at AD 1848–1852 and AD 1880–1930 correspond to the positive phase of the NAO. The increased frequency of negative phases of the NAO between AD 1940–1975 is contemporaneous with higher δ15N values (wetter conditions). A 4‰ decrease in δ15N values at the end of the 1970’s corresponds to a strong reduction in precipitation associated with a shift from negative to positive phase of the NAO. Using the relationship between NAO index and δ15N values in guano for the instrumental period, we reconstructed NAO-like phases back to AD 1650. Our results advocate that δ15N values of guano offer a proxy of the NAO conditions in the more distant past, helping assess its predictability.

Description: The Arctic has warmed more than twice as fast as the global average since the mid 20th century, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification (AA). These profound changes to the Arctic system have coincided with a period of ostensibly more frequent events of extreme weather across the Northern Hemisphere (NH) mid-latitudes, including extreme heat and rainfall events and recent severe winters. Though winter temperatures have generally warmed since 1960 over mid-to-high latitudes, the acceleration in the rate of warming at high-latitudes, relative to the rest of the NH, started approximately in 1990. Trends since 1990 show cooling over the NH continents, especially in Northern Eurasia. The possible link between Arctic change and mid-latitude climate and weather has spurred a rush of new observational and modeling studies. A number of workshops held during 2013-2014 have helped frame the problem and have called for continuing and enhancing efforts for improving our understanding of Arctic-mid-latitude linkages and its attribution to the occurrence of extreme climate and weather events. Although these workshops have outlined some of the major challenges and provided broad recommendations, further efforts are needed to synthesize the diversified research results to identify where community consensus and gaps exist. Building upon findings and recommendations of the previous workshops, the US CLIVAR Working Group on Arctic Change and Possible Influence on Mid-latitude Climate and Weather convened an international workshop at Georgetown University in Washington, DC, on February 1-3, 2017. Experts in the fields of atmosphere, ocean, and cryosphere sciences assembled to assess the rapidly evolving state of understanding, identify consensus on knowledge and gaps in research, and develop specific actions to accelerate progress within the research community. With more than 100 participants, the workshop was the largest and most comprehensive gathering of climate scientists to address the topic to date. In this white paper, we synthesize and discuss outcomes from this workshop and activities involving many of the working group members.