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  • 1
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    Global Surface Ocean Acidification Indicators From 1750 to 2100 (2023)
    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: Accurately predicting future ocean acidification (OA) conditions is crucial for advancing OA research at regional and global scales, and guiding society's mitigation and adaptation efforts. This study presents a new model-data fusion product covering 10 global surface OA indicators based on 14 Earth System Models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), along with three recent observational ocean carbon data products. The indicators include fugacity of carbon dioxide, pH on total scale, total hydrogen ion content, free hydrogen ion content, carbonate ion content, aragonite saturation state, calcite saturation state, Revelle Factor, total dissolved inorganic carbon content, and total alkalinity content. The evolution of these OA indicators is presented on a global surface ocean 1° × 1° grid as decadal averages every 10 years from preindustrial conditions (1750), through historical conditions (1850–2010), and to five future Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (2020–2100): SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5. These OA trajectories represent an improvement over previous OA data products with respect to data quantity, spatial and temporal coverage, diversity of the underlying data and model simulations, and the provided SSPs. The generated data product offers a state-of-the-art research and management tool for the 21st century under the combined stressors of global climate change and ocean acidification. The gridded data product is available in NetCDF at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Information: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/oceans/ncei/ocads/metadata/0259391.html, and global maps of these indicators are available in jpeg at: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/ocean-carbon-acidification-data-system/synthesis/surface-oa-indicators.html. Key Points: - This study presents the evolution of 10 ocean acidification (OA) indicators in the global surface ocean from 1750 to 2100 - By leveraging 14 Earth System Models (ESMs) and the latest observational data, it represents a significant advancement in OA projections - This inter-model comparison effort showcases the overall agreements among different ESMs in projecting surface ocean carbon variables
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 2
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    Impact Forecasting to Support Emergency Management of Natural Hazards (2020)
    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-02-08
    Description: Forecasting and early warning systems are important investments to protect lives, properties and livelihood. While early warning systems are frequently used to predict the magnitude, location and timing of potentially damaging events, these systems rarely provide impact estimates, such as the expected amount and distribution of physical damage, human consequences, disruption of services or financial loss. Complementing early warning systems with impact forecasts has a two‐fold advantage: it would provide decision makers with richer information to take informed decisions about emergency measures, and focus the attention of different disciplines on a common target. This would allow capitalizing on synergies between different disciplines and boosting the development of multi‐hazard early warning systems. This review discusses the state‐of‐the‐art in impact forecasting for a wide range of natural hazards. We outline the added value of impact‐based warnings compared to hazard forecasting for the emergency phase, indicate challenges and pitfalls, and synthesize the review results across hazard types most relevant for Europe. Plain language summary Forecasting and early warning systems are important investments to protect lives, properties and livelihood. While such systems are frequently used to predict the magnitude, location and timing of potentially damaging events, they rarely provide impact estimates, such as the expected physical damage, human consequences, disruption of services or financial loss. Extending hazard forecast systems to include impact estimates promises many benefits for the emergency phase, for instance, for organising evacuations. We review and compare the state‐of‐the‐art of impact forcasting across a wide range of natural hazards, and outline opportunities and key challenges for research and development of impact forecasting.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 3
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    Geoengineered ocean vertical water exchange can accelerate global deoxygenation (2020)
    Wiley | AGU (American Geophysical Union)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-02-08
    Description: Ocean deoxygenation is a threat to marine ecosystems. We evaluated the potential of two ocean intervention technologies, i.e. “artificial downwelling (AD)” and “artificial upwelling (AU)”, for remedying the expansion of Oxygen Deficient Zones (ODZs). The model‐based assessment simulated AD and AU implementations for 80 years along the eastern Pacific ODZ. When AD was simulated by pumping surface seawater to the 178 ~ 457 m depth range of the ODZ, vertically integrated oxygen increased by up to 4.5% in the deployment region. Pumping water from 457 m depth to the surface (i.e. AU), where it can equilibrate with the atmosphere, increased the vertically integrated oxygen by 1.03%. However, both simulated AD and AU increased biological production via enhanced nutrient supply to the sea surface, resulting in enhanced export production and subsequent aerobic remineralization also outside of the actual implementation region, and an ultimate net decline of global oceanic oxygen.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 4
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    Sinking of Gelatinous Zooplankton Biomass Increases Deep Carbon Transfer Efficiency Globally (2019)
    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    In:  Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 33 (12). pp. 1764-1783.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-01-31
    Description: Gelatinous zooplankton (Cnidaria, Ctenophora, and Urochordata, namely, Thaliacea) are ubiquitous members of plankton communities linking primary production to higher trophic levels and the deep ocean by serving as food and transferring “jelly‐carbon” (jelly‐C) upon bloom collapse. Global biomass within the upper 200 m reaches 0.038 Pg C, which, with a 2–12 months life span, serves as the lower limit for annual jelly‐C production. Using over 90,000 data points from 1934 to 2011 from the Jellyfish Database Initiative as an indication of global biomass (JeDI: http://jedi.nceas.ucsb.edu, http://www.bco‐dmo.org/dataset/526852), upper ocean jelly‐C biomass and production estimates, organism vertical migration, jelly‐C sinking rates, and water column temperature profiles from GLODAPv2, we quantitatively estimate jelly‐C transfer efficiency based on Longhurst Provinces. From the upper 200 m production estimate of 0.038 Pg C year−1, 59–72% reaches 500 m, 46–54% reaches 1,000 m, 43–48% reaches 2,000 m, 32–40% reaches 3,000 m, and 25–33% reaches 4,500 m. This translates into ~0.03, 0.02, 0.01, and 0.01 Pg C year−1, transferred down to 500, 1,000, 2,000, and 4,500 m, respectively. Jelly‐C fluxes and transfer efficiencies can occasionally exceed phytodetrital‐based sediment trap estimates in localized open ocean and continental shelves areas under large gelatinous blooms or jelly‐C mass deposition events, but this remains ephemeral and transient in nature. This transfer of fast and permanently exported carbon reaching the ocean interior via jelly‐C constitutes an important component of the global biological soft‐tissue pump, and should be addressed in ocean biogeochemical models, in particular, at the local and regional scale.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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    DOI: 10.1029/2019GB006265
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 5
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    Isoscape Models of the Southern Ocean: Predicting Spatial and Temporal Variability in Carbon and Nitrogen Isotope Compositions of Particulate Organic Matter (2021)
    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-14
    Description: Polar marine ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Warming temperatures, freshening seawater, and disruption to sea-ice formation potentially all have cascading effects on food webs. New approaches are needed to better understand spatiotemporal interactions among biogeochemical processes at the base of Southern Ocean food webs. In marine systems, isoscapes (models of the spatial variation in the stable isotopic composition) of carbon and nitrogen have proven useful in identifying spatial variation in a range of biogeochemical processes, such as nutrient utilization by phytoplankton. Isoscapes provide a baseline for interpreting stable isotope compositions of higher trophic level animals in movement, migration, and diet research. Here, we produce carbon and nitrogen isoscapes across the entire Southern Ocean (〉40°S) using surface particulate organic matter isotope data, collected over the past 50 years. We use Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation-based approaches to predict mean annual isoscapes and four seasonal isoscapes using a suite of environmental data as predictor variables. Clear spatial gradients in δ13C and δ15N values were predicted across the Southern Ocean, consistent with previous statistical and mechanistic views of isotopic variability in this region. We identify strong seasonal variability in both carbon and nitrogen isoscapes, with key implications for the use of static or annual average isoscape baselines in animal studies attempting to document seasonal migratory or foraging behaviors.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: text
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 6
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    A Seismic Tomography, Gravity, and Flexure Study of the Crust and Upper Mantle Structure of the Emperor Seamounts at Jimmu Guyot (2022)
    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: The intraplate Hawaiian-Emperor Seamount Chain has long been considered a hotspot track generated by the motion of the Pacific plate over a deep mantle plume, and an ideal feature therefore for studies of volcanic structure, magma supply, plume-crust interaction, flexural loading, and upper mantle rheology. Despite their importance as a major component of the chain, the Emperor Seamounts have been relatively little studied. In this paper, we present the results of an active-source wide-angle reflection and refraction experiment conducted along an ocean-bottom-seismograph (OBS) line oriented perpendicular to the seamount chain, crossing Jimmu guyot. The tomographic P wave velocity model, using ∼20,000 travel times from 26 OBSs, suggests that there is a high-velocity (〉6.0 km/s) intrusive core within the edifice, and the extrusive-to-intrusive ratio is estimated to be ∼2.5, indicating that Jimmu was built mainly by extrusive processes. The total volume for magmatic material above the top of the oceanic crust is ∼5.3 × 104 km3, and the related volume flux is ∼0.96 m3/s during the formation of Jimmu. Under volcanic loading, the ∼5.3-km-thick oceanic crust is depressed by ∼3.8 km over a broad region. Using the standard relationships between Vp and density, the velocity model is verified by gravity modeling, and plate flexure modeling indicates an effective elastic thickness (Te) of ∼14 km. Finally, we find no evidence for large-scale magmatic underplating beneath the pre-existing crust.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 7
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    Patterns of spatial and temporal variability of UV transparency in Lake Tahoe, California-Nevada (2009)
    AGU (American Geophysical Union)
    In:  Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 114 . G00D03.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2018-02-06
    Description: Lake Tahoe is an ultra-oligotrophic subalpine lake that is renowned for its clarity. The region experiences little cloud cover and is one of the most UV transparent lakes in the world. As such, it is an ideal environment to study the role of UV radiation in aquatic ecosystems. Long-term trends in Secchi depths showed that water transparency to visible light has decreased in recent decades, but limited data are available on the UV transparency of the lake. Here we examine how ultraviolet radiation varies relative to longer-wavelength photosynthetically active radiation (PAR, 400-700 nm, visible wavelengths) horizontally along inshore-offshore transects in the lake and vertically within the water column as well as temporally throughout 2007. UV transparency was more variable than PAR transparency horizontally across the lake and throughout the year. Seasonal patterns of Secchi transparency differed from both UV and PAR, indicating that different substances may be responsible for controlling transparency to UV, PAR, and Secchi. In surface waters, UVA (380 nm) often attenuated more slowly than PAR, a pattern visible in only exceptionally transparent waters with very low dissolved organic carbon. On many sampling dates, UV transparency decreased progressively with depth suggesting surface photobleaching, reductions in particulate matter, increasing chlorophyll a, or some combination of these increased during summer months. Combining these patterns of UV transparency with data on visible light provides a more comprehensive understanding of ecosystem structure, function, and effects of environmental change in highly transparent alpine and subalpine lakes such as Tahoe.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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    DOI: 10.1029/2008JG000816
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 8
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    Partitioning of the Open Waters of the Gulf of Mexico Based on the Seasonal and Interannual Variability of Chlorophyll Concentration (2018)
    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-09
    Description: The seasonal and interannual variability of chlorophyll in the Gulf of Mexico open waters is studied using a three‐dimensional coupled physical‐biogeochemical model. A 5 years hindcast driven by realistic open‐boundary conditions, atmospheric forcings, and freshwater discharges from rivers is performed. The use of recent in situ observations allowed an in‐depth evaluation of the model nutrient and chlorophyll seasonal distributions, including the chlorophyll vertical structure. We find that different chlorophyll patterns of temporal variability coexist in the deep basin which thereby cannot be considered as a homogeneous region with respect to chlorophyll dynamics. A partitioning of the Gulf of Mexico open waters based on the winter chlorophyll concentration increase is then proposed. This partition is basically explained by the amount of nutrients injected into the euphotic layer which is highly constrained by the dynamic of the winter mixed layer. The seasonal and interannual variability appears to be affected by the variability of atmospheric fluxes and mesoscale dynamics (Loop Current eddies in particular). Finally, estimates of primary production in the deep basin are provided.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 9
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    Simulations of convectively-driven density currents in the Atlas region using a regional model: Impacts on dust emission and sensitivity to horizontal resolution and convection schemes (2009)
    AGU (American Geophysical Union)
    In:  Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 114 . D08127.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2018-02-06
    Description: During the SAMUM field campaign in southern Morocco in May and June 2006 density currents generated by evaporative cooling after convective precipitation were frequently observed at the Sahara side of the Atlas Mountain chain. The associated strong surface cold-air outflow during such events has been observed to lead to dust mobilization in the foothills. Here a regional model system is used to simulate a density current case on 3 June 2006 and the subsequent dust emission. The model studies are performed with different parameterization schemes for convection, and with different horizontal model grid resolutions to examine to which extent the model system can be used for reproducing dust emissions in this region. The effect of increasing the horizontal model grid resolution from 14 km to 2.8 km on the strength on the density currents and thus on dust emission is smaller than the differences due to different convection parameterization schemes in this case study. While the results in reproducing the observed density current at the Atlas Mountain varied with different convection parameterizations, the most realistic representation of the density current is obtained at 2.8 km grid resolution at which no parameterization of deep convection is needed.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    DOI: 10.1029/2008JD010844
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 10
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    Seismic and Acoustic Monitoring of Submarine Landslides: Ongoing Challenges, Recent Successes and Future Opportunities (2023)
    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-26
    Description: Submarine landslides pose a hazard to coastal communities and critical seafloor infrastructure, occurring on all of the world's continental margins, from coastal zones to hadal trenches. Offshore monitoring has been limited by the largely unpredictable occurrence of submarine landslides and the need to cover large regions. Recent subsea monitoring has provided new insights into the preconditioning and run-out of submarine landslides using active geophysical techniques. However, these tools measure a small spatial footprint and are power- and memory-intensive, thus limiting long-duration monitoring. Most landslide events remain unrecorded. In this chapter, we first show how passive acoustic and seismologic techniques can record acoustic emissions and ground motions created by terrestrial landslides. This terrestrial-focused research has catalyzed advances in characterizing submarine landslides using onshore and offshore networks of broadband seismometers, hydrophones, and geophones. We discuss new insights into submarine landslide preconditioning, timing, location, velocity, and down-slope evolution arising from these advances. Finally, we outline challenges, emphasizing the need to calibrate seismic and acoustic signals generated by submarine landslides. Passive seismic and acoustic sensing has a strong potential to enable more complete hazard catalogs to be built and open the door to emerging techniques (such as fiber-optic sensing) to fill key knowledge gaps.
    Type: Book chapter , NonPeerReviewed
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    OceanRep: Book chapter
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