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  • 1
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    Impact Forecasting to Support Emergency Management of Natural Hazards (2020)
    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-02-08
    Description: Forecasting and early warning systems are important investments to protect lives, properties and livelihood. While early warning systems are frequently used to predict the magnitude, location and timing of potentially damaging events, these systems rarely provide impact estimates, such as the expected amount and distribution of physical damage, human consequences, disruption of services or financial loss. Complementing early warning systems with impact forecasts has a two‐fold advantage: it would provide decision makers with richer information to take informed decisions about emergency measures, and focus the attention of different disciplines on a common target. This would allow capitalizing on synergies between different disciplines and boosting the development of multi‐hazard early warning systems. This review discusses the state‐of‐the‐art in impact forecasting for a wide range of natural hazards. We outline the added value of impact‐based warnings compared to hazard forecasting for the emergency phase, indicate challenges and pitfalls, and synthesize the review results across hazard types most relevant for Europe. Plain language summary Forecasting and early warning systems are important investments to protect lives, properties and livelihood. While such systems are frequently used to predict the magnitude, location and timing of potentially damaging events, they rarely provide impact estimates, such as the expected physical damage, human consequences, disruption of services or financial loss. Extending hazard forecast systems to include impact estimates promises many benefits for the emergency phase, for instance, for organising evacuations. We review and compare the state‐of‐the‐art of impact forcasting across a wide range of natural hazards, and outline opportunities and key challenges for research and development of impact forecasting.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: text
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 2
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    A numerical model of dyke propagation in layered elastic media (2020)
    Ras
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-10-16
    Description: We develop a mathematical model describing dyke propagation in proximity of an elastic discontinuity of the embedding medium. The dyke is modelled as a fluid-filled crack in plane strain configuration employing the boundary element method. The pressure gradient along the crack is assumed proportional to the difference between the densities of the host rock and the fluid. Mass conservation is imposed during propagation and fluid compressibility is taken into account. The path followed by the crack is found by maximizing the total energy release, given by the sum of the elastic and gravitational contributions. The mathematical simulations provide a sort of ‘refraction phenomenon’, that is a sudden change in the direction of propagation when the crack crosses the boundary separating different rigidities: if the dyke enters a softer medium, its path deviates towards the vertical, if the dyke enters a harder medium its path deviates away from the vertical and may even become arrested as a horizontal sill along the interface, if the rigidity contrast is large. Gravitational energy plays a major role during propagation; in particular, in proximity of layer boundaries, this role is enhanced by the shift of the centre of mass due to changes of dyke shape. Mathematical results were validated by laboratory experiments performed injecting tilted air-filled cracks through gelatin layers with different rigidities.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1107-1123
    Description: 2V. Struttura e sistema di alimentazione dei vulcani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 3
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    The stress shadow induced by the 1975-1984 Krafla rifting episode (2020)
    Wiley Agu
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-10-16
    Description: It has been posited that the 1975–1984 Krafla rifting episode in northern Iceland was responsible for a significant drop in the rate of earthquakes along the Húsavík-Flatey Fault (HFF), a transform fault that had previously been the source of several magnitude 6–7 earthquakes. This compelling case of the existence of a stress shadow has never been studied in detail, and the implications of such a stress shadow remain an open question. According to rate-state models, intense stress shadows cause tens of years of low seismicity rate followed by a faster recovery phase of rate increase. Here, we compare the long-term predictions from a Coulomb stress model of the rifting episode with seismological observations from the SIL catalog (1995–2011) in northern Iceland. In the analyzed time frame, we find that the rift-induced stress shadow coincides with the eastern half of the fault where the observed seismicity rates are found to be significantly lower than expected, given the historical earthquake activity there. We also find that the seismicity rates on the central part of the HFF increased significantly in the last 17 years, with the seismicity progressively recovering from west to east. Our observations confirm that rate-state theory successfully describes the long-term seismic rate variation during the reloading phase of a fault invested by a negative Coulomb stress. Coincident with this recovery, we find that the b-value of the frequency-magnitude distribution changed significantly over time. We conclude that the rift-induced stress shadow not only decreased the seismic rate on the eastern part of the HFF but also temporarily modified how the system releases seismic energy, with more large magnitude events in proportion to small ones. This behavior is currently being overturned, as rift-induced locking is now being compensated by tectonic forcing.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1109-1121
    Description: 5V. Processi eruttivi e post-eruttivi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 4
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    A quantitative study of the mechanisms governing dike propagation, dike arrest and sill formation (2020)
    Elsevier
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-10-16
    Description: Dikes and sills are the moving building blocks of the plumbing system of volcanoes and play a fundamental role in the accretionary processes of the crust. They nucleate, propagate, halt, resume propagation, and sometimes change trajectory with drastic implications for the outcome of eruptions (Sigmundsson et al., 2010). Their dynamics is still poorly understood, in particular when different external influencing factors are interacting. Here we apply a boundary element model to study dike and sill formation, propagation and arrest in different scenarios. We model dikes as finite batches of compressible fluid magma, propagating quasi-statically in an elastic medium, and calculate their trajectories by maximising the energy release of the magma-rock system. We consider dike propagation in presence of density layering, of density plus rigidity layering, of a weakly welded interface between layers, under the action of an external stress field (of tectonic or topographic origin). Our simulations predict sill formation in several situations: i) when a horizontal weak interface is met by a propagating dike; ii) when a sufficiently high compressive tectonic environment is experienced by the ascending dike and iii) in case a dike, starting below a volcanic edifice, propagates away from the topographic load with a low dip angle. We find that dikes halt and stack when they become negatively buoyant and when they propagate with low overpressure at their upper tip toward a topographic load. Neutral buoyancy by itself cannot induce dikes to turn into sills, as previously suggested.
    Description: Published
    Description: 39-50
    Description: 2V. Struttura e sistema di alimentazione dei vulcani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 5
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    Etnean and Hyblean volcanism shifted away from the Malta Escarpment by crustal stresses (2018)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-05-12
    Description: A fraction of the volcanic activity occurs intraplate, challenging our models of melting and magma transfer to the Earth's surface. A prominent example is Mt. Etna, eastern Sicily, offset from the asthenospheric tear below the Malta Escarpment proposed as its melt source. The nearby Hyblean volcanism, to the south, and the overall northward migration of the eastern Sicilian volcanism are also unexplained. Here we simulate crustal magma pathways beneath eastern Sicily, accounting for regional stresses and decompression due to the increase in the depth of the Malta Escarpment. We find non-vertical magma pathways, with the competition of tectonic and loading stresses controlling the trajectories' curvature and its change in time, causing the observed migration of volcanism. This suggests that the Hyblean and Etnean volcanism have been fed laterally from a melt pooling region below the Malta Escarpment. The case of eastern Sicily shows how the reconstruction of the evolution of magmatic provinces may require not only an assessment of the paleostresses, but also of the contribution of surface loads and their variations; at times, the latter may even prevail. Accounting for these competing stresses may help shed light on the distribution and wandering of intraplate volcanism
    Description: Published
    Description: 15-22
    Description: 1V. Storia eruttiva
    Description: 2V. Struttura e sistema di alimentazione dei vulcani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: intraplate volcanism ; fault scarp ; dike propagation ; Malta Escarpment ; Hyblean volcanism ; Etna ; Mechanical models of magma transfer are used to backtrack the surface volcanism in Eastern Sicily. ; Our models account for regional stresses and decompression due to the deepening of the Malta Escarpment ; Both the Hyblean and Etnean volcanism has been laterally fed by a melt pooling region below the Malta Escarpment ; The Malta Escarpment played an active role in steering the shifting of Etnean and Hyblean volcanism
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 6
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    On the mechanisms governing dike arrest: Insight from the 2000 Miyakejima dike injection (2020)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-10-16
    Description: Magma stored beneath volcanoes is sometimes transported out of the magma chambers by means of laterally propagating dikes, which can lead to fissure eruptions if they intersect the Earth’s surface. The driving force for lateral dike propagation can be a lateral tectonic stress gradient, the stress gradient due to the topographic loads, the overpressure of the magma chamber, or a combination of those forces. The 2000 dike intrusion at Miyakejima volcano, Izu arc, Japan, propagated laterally for about 30 km and stopped in correspondence of a strike-slip system, sub-perpendicular to the dike plane. Then the dike continued to inflate, without further propagation. Abundant seismicity was produced, including five M 〉 6 earthquakes, one of which occurred on the pre-existing fault system close to the tip of the dike, at approximately the time of arrest. It has been proposed that the main cause for the dike arrest was the fault-induced stress. Here we use a boundary element numerical approach to study the interplay between a propagating dike and a pre-stressed strike-slip fault and check the relative role played by dike–fault interaction and topographic loading in arresting the Miyakejima dike. We calibrate the model parameters according to previous estimates of dike opening and fault displacement based on crustal deformation observations. Bycomputing the energy released during the propagation, our model indicates whether the dike will stop at a given location. We find that the stress gradient induced by the topography is needed for an opening distribution along the dike consistent with the observed seismicity, but it cannot explain its arrest at the prescribed location. On the other hand, the interaction of dike with the fault explains the arrest but not the opening distribution. The joint effect of the topographic load and the stress interaction with strike-slip fault is consistent with the observations, provided the pre-existing fault system is pre-loadedwith a significant stress, released gradually during the dike–fault interplay. Our results reveal how the mechanical interaction between dikes and faults may affect the propagation of magmatic intrusions in general. This has implications for our understanding of the geometrical arrangement of rift segments and transform faults in Mid Ocean Ridges, and for the interplay between dikes and dike-induced graben systems.
    Description: Published
    Description: 64-74
    Description: 4V. Processi pre-eruttivi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 7
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    Off-rift volcanism in rift zones determined by crustal unloading (2020)
    Nature P. G.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-10-16
    Description: When continents are stretched over a long period of time, deep elongated rift valleys form at Earth’s surface and zones of ponded magma, centred beneath the rift, form at the crust–mantle boundary 1,2 . Ascending magma sometimes erupts within the rift valley 3,4 or, counterintuitively, at volcanic fields away from the rift valley that are offset by tens of kilometres from the source of magma at depth 5–8 . The controls on the distribution of this off-rift volcanism are unclear. Here we use a numerical model of magmatic dyke propagation during rifting to investigate why some dykes reach the surface outside the rift valley, whereas others are confined to the valley. We find that the location of magmatism is governed by the competition between tectonic stretching and gravitational unloading pressure, caused by crustal thinning and faulting along the rift borders. When gravitational unloading dominates over tectonic stretching forces, dykes ascending from the ponded magma are steered towards the rift sides, eventually causing off-rift eruptions. Our model also predicts the formation of stacked magma sills in the lower crust above the magma-ponding zone, as well as the along-rift propagation of shallow dykes during rifting events, consistent with observations of magmatism and volcanism in rift zones globally. We conclude that rift topography-induced stress changes provide a fundamental control on the transfer of magma from depth to the surface.
    Description: Published
    Description: 2V. Struttura e sistema di alimentazione dei vulcani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 8
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    Aseismic transient driving the swarm-like seismic sequence in the Pollino range, Southern Italy (2020)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-12-15
    Description: This article has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Journal International ©: The Authors 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy.
    Description: ectonic earthquake swarms challenge our understanding of earthquake processes since it is difficult to link observations to the underlying physical mechanisms and to assess the hazard they pose. Transient forcing is thought to initiate and drive the spatio-temporal release of energy during swarms. The nature of the transient forcing may vary across sequences and range from aseismic creeping or transient slip to diffusion of pore pressure pulses to fluid redistribution and migration within the seismogenic crust. Distinguishing between such forcing mechanisms may be critical to reduce epistemic uncertainties in the assessment of hazard due to seismic swarms, because it can provide information on the frequency–magnitude distribution of the earthquakes (often deviating from the assumed Gutenberg–Richter relation) and on the expected source parameters influencing the ground motion (for example the stress drop). Here we study the ongoing Pollino range (Southern Italy) seismic swarm, a long-lasting seismic sequence with more than five thousand events recorded and located since October 2010. The two largest shocks (magnitude M w = 4.2 and M w = 5.1) are among the largest earthquakes ever recorded in an area which represents a seismic gap in the Italian historical earthquake catalogue. We investigate the geometrical, mechanical and statistical characteristics of the largest earthquakes and of the entire swarm. We calculate the focal mechanisms of the M l 〉 3 events in the sequence and the transfer of Coulomb stress on nearby known faults and analyse the statistics of the earthquake catalogue. We find that only 25 per cent of the earthquakes in the sequence can be explained as aftershocks, and the remaining 75 per cent may be attributed to a transient forcing. The b-values change in time throughout the sequence, with low b-values correlated with the period of highest rate of activity and with the occurrence of the largest shock. In the light of recent studies on the palaeoseismic and historical activity in the Pollino area, we identify two scenarios consistent with the observations and our analysis: This and past seismic swarms may have been ‘passive’ features, with small fault patches failing on largely locked faults, or may have been accompanied by an ‘active’, largely aseismic, release of a large portion of the accumulated tectonic strain. Those scenarios have very different implications for the seismic hazard of the area.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1553–1567
    Description: 4T. Sismicità dell'Italia
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 9
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    The NEWTON-g Gravity Imager: Toward New Paradigms for Terrain Gravimetry (2021)
    Frontiers
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-01-07
    Description: Knowledge of the spatio-temporal changes in the characteristics and distribution of subsurface fluids is key to properly addressing important societal issues, including: sustainable management of energy resources (e.g., hydrocarbons and geothermal energy), management of water resources, and assessment of hazard (e.g., volcanic eruptions). Gravimetry is highly attractive because it can detect changes in subsurface mass, thus providing a window into processes that involve deep fluids. However, high cost and operating features associated with current instrumentation seriously limits the practical field use of this geophysical method. The NEWTON-g project proposes a radical change of paradigm for gravimetry through the development of a fieldcompatible measuring system (the gravity imager), able to real-time monitor the evolution of the subsurface mass changes. This system includes an array of lowcosts microelectromechanical systems-based relative gravimeters, anchored on an absolute quantum gravimeter. It will provide imaging of gravity changes, associated with variations in subsurface fluid properties, with unparalleled spatio-temporal resolution. During the final ∼2 years of NEWTON-g, the gravity imager will be field tested in the summit of Mt. Etna volcano (Italy), where frequent gravity fluctuations, easy access to the active structures and the presence of a multiparameter monitoring system (including traditional gravimeters) ensure an excellent natural laboratory for testing the new tools. Insights from the gravity imager will be used to i) improve our knowledge of the causeeffect relationships between volcanic processes and gravity changes observable at the surface and ii) develop strategies to best incorporate the gravity data into hazards assessments and mitigation plans. A successful implementation of NEWTON-g will open new doors for geophysical exploration.
    Description: Published
    Description: 573396
    Description: 1IT. Reti di monitoraggio e sorveglianza
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 10
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    A two-step model for dynamical dike propagation in two dimensions: Application to the July 2001 Etna eruption (2020)
    Wiley Agu
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-10-16
    Description: We developed a hybrid numerical model of dike propagation in two dimensions solving both for the magma trajectory and velocity as a function of the source overpressure, the magma physical properties (density and viscosity), and the crustal density and stress field. This model is used to characterize the influence of surface load changes on magma migration toward the surface. We confirm that surface loading induced by volcanic edifice construction tends both to attract the magma and to reduce its velocity. In contrast, surface unloading, for instance, due to caldera formation, tends to divert the magma to the periphery-retarding eruption. In both cases the deflected magma may remain trapped at depth. Amplitudes of dike deflection and magma velocity variation depend on the ratio between the magma driving pressure (source overpressure as well as buoyancy) and the stress field perturbation. Our model is then applied to the July 2001 eruption of Etna, where the final dike deflection had been previously interpreted as due to the topographic load. We show that the velocity decrease observed during the last stage of the propagation can also be attributed to the local stress field. We use the dike propagation duration to estimate the magma overpressure at the dike bottom to be less than 4 MPa. This approach can be potentially used to forecast if, where, and when propagating magma might reach the surface when having knowledge on the local stress field, magma physical properties, and reservoir overpressure.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1107-1125
    Description: 2V. Struttura e sistema di alimentazione dei vulcani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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