Description: The Amazon forests are one of the largest ecosystem carbon pools on Earth. Although more frequent and prolonged future droughts have been predicted, the impacts have remained largely uncertain, as most land surface models (LSMs) fail to capture the vegetation drought responses. In this study, the ability of the LSM JSBACH to simulate the drought responses of leaf area index (LAI) and leaf litter production in the Amazon forests is evaluated against artificial drought experiments. Based on the evaluation, improvements are implemented, including a dependency of leaf growth on leaf carbon allocation and a better representation of drought-dependent leaf shedding. The modified JSBACH is shown to capture the drought responses at two sites and across different regions of the basin. It is then coupled with an atmospheric model to simulate the carbon and biogeophysical feedbacks of drought under future climate. We separate the drought impacts into (a) the direct effect, resulting from drier soil and stomatal closure, which does not involve a change in canopy structure, and (b) the LAI effect, resulting from leaf shedding and involving canopy response. We show that the latter accounts for 35% of reduced land carbon uptake (9 ± 10 vs. 26 ± 7 g/m2/yr; mean ± 1 sd) and 12% of surface warming (0.09 ± 0.03 vs. 0.7 ± 0.07 K) during the late 21st century. A north-south dipole of precipitation change is found, which is largely attributable to the direct effect. The results highlight the importance of incorporating drought deciduousness of tropical rainforests in LSMs to better simulate land-atmosphere interactions in the future.

Description: A natural carbon dioxide (CO2) seep was discovered during an expedition to the southern German North Sea (October 2008). Elevated CO2 levels of ∼10–20 times above background were detected in seawater above a natural salt dome ∼30 km north of the East-Frisian Island Juist. A single elevated value 53 times higher than background was measured, indicating a possible CO2 point source from the seafloor. Measured pH values of around 6.8 support modeled pH values for the observed high CO2 concentration. These results are presented in the context of CO2 seepage detection, in light of proposed subsurface CO2 sequestering and growing concern of ocean acidification. We explore the boundary conditions of CO2 bubble and plume seepage and potential flux paths to the atmosphere. Shallow bubble release experiments conducted in a lake combined with discrete-bubble modeling suggest that shallow CO2 outgassing will be difficult to detect as bubbles dissolve very rapidly (within meters). Bubble-plume modeling further shows that a CO2 plume will lose buoyancy quickly because of rapid bubble dissolution while the newly CO2-enriched water tends to sink toward the seabed. Results suggest that released CO2 will tend to stay near the bottom in shallow systems (〈200 m) and will vent to the atmosphere only during deep water convection (water column turnover). While isotope signatures point to a biogenic source, the exact origin is inconclusive because of dilution. This site could serve as a natural laboratory to further study the effects of carbon sequestration below the seafloor.

Description: The main physical and biological processes that control the seasonal cycle of the plankton dynamics over the Western Black Sea were explored by means of a three‐dimensional, 7‐compartment, on‐line coupled biophysical model that was developed for this study. Adopting high frequency forcing in terms of air‐sea interaction and Danube river inputs, we performed a simulation of the coupled model during the 2002–2003 period. A series of 8‐day Chl‐a SeaWiFS images provided a validation tool that guided us, along with available in situ measurements, to the improvement of model parameterizations and the calibration of the biological parameters. The simulation of the seasonal phytoplankton variability over the entire Western Black Sea, extending from the highly eutrophic river influenced area to the open sea area, was a major challenge that made necessary the representation of both the spatial and time variability of several processes. Despite the model simplicity, the simulated Chl‐a patterns presented a good agreement as compared to the SeaWiFS and in situ data. During winter, phytoplankton in coastal areas was shown to be limited by light availability, primarily due to the increased particulate matter concentrations, as a result of resuspension from the sediment and the increased river loads. During summer, the primary production was mostly sustained by riverine nutrients and regeneration processes and thus was strongly linked to the evolution of the Danube plume. The limiting nutrients showed deviations from the observed concentrations, indicating the necessity for a more realistic phytoplankton growth model.

Description: A major surface circulation feature of the Arctic Ocean is the Transpolar Drift (TPD), a current that transports river‐influenced shelf water from the Laptev and East Siberian Seas toward the center of the basin and Fram Strait. In 2015, the international GEOTRACES program included a high‐resolution pan‐Arctic survey of carbon, nutrients, and a suite of trace elements and isotopes (TEIs). The cruises bisected the TPD at two locations in the central basin, which were defined by maxima in meteoric water and dissolved organic carbon concentrations that spanned 600 km horizontally and ~25‐50 m vertically. Dissolved TEIs such as Fe, Co, Ni, Cu, Hg, Nd, and Th, which are generally particle‐reactive but can be complexed by organic matter, were observed at concentrations much higher than expected for the open ocean setting. Other trace element concentrations such as Al, V, Ga, and Pb were lower than expected due to scavenging over the productive East Siberian and Laptev shelf seas. Using a combination of radionuclide tracers and ice drift modeling, the transport rate for the core of the TPD was estimated at 0.9 ± 0.4 Sv (106 m3 s‐1). This rate was used to derive the mass flux for TEIs that were enriched in the TPD, revealing the importance of lateral transport in supplying materials beneath the ice to the central Arctic Ocean and potentially to the North Atlantic Ocean via Fram Strait. Continued intensification of the Arctic hydrologic cycle and permafrost degradation will likely lead to an increase in the flux of TEIs into the Arctic Ocean.

Description: A bottom-simulating reflector (BSR) occurs west of Svalbard in water depths exceeding 600 m, indicating that gas hydrate occurrence in marine sediments is more widespread in this region than anywhere else on the eastern North Atlantic margin. Regional BSR mapping shows the presence of hydrate and free gas in several areas, with the largest area located north of the Knipovich Ridge, a slow-spreading ridge segment of the Mid Atlantic Ridge system. Here, heat flow is high (up to 330 mW m-2), increasing towards the ridge axis. The coinciding maxima in across-margin BSR width and heat flow suggest that the Knipovich Ridge influenced methane generation in this area. This is supported by recent finds of thermogenic methane at cold seeps north of the ridge termination. To evaluate the source rock potential on the western Svalbard margin, we applied 1D petroleum system modeling at three sites. The modeling shows that temperature and burial conditions near the ridge were sufficient to produce hydrocarbons. The bulk petroleum mass produced since the Eocene is at least 5 kt and could be as high as ~0.2 Mt. Most likely, source rocks are Miocene organic-rich sediments and a potential Eocene source rock that may exist in the area if early rifting created sufficiently deep depocenters. Thermogenic methane production could thus explain the more widespread presence of gas hydrates north of the Knipovich Ridge. The presence of microbial methane on the upper continental slope and shelf indicates that the origin of methane on the Svalbard margin varies spatially.

Description: This study proposes a new process‐based framework to characterize and classify runoff events of various magnitudes occurring in a wide range of catchments. The framework uses dimensionless indicators that characterize space–time dynamics of precipitation events and their spatial interaction with antecedent catchment states, described as snow cover, distribution of frozen soils, and soil moisture content. A rigorous uncertainty analysis showed that the developed indicators are robust and regionally consistent. Relying on covariance‐ and ratio‐based indicators leads to reduced classification uncertainty compared to commonly used (event‐based) indicators based on absolute values of metrics such as duration, volume, and intensity of precipitation events. The event typology derived from the proposed framework is able to stratify events that exhibit distinct hydrograph dynamics even if streamflow is not directly used for classification. The derived typology is therefore able to capture first‐order controls of event runoff response in a wide variety of catchments. Application of this typology to about 180,000 runoff events observed in 392 German catchments revealed six distinct regions with homogeneous event type frequency that match well regions with similar behavior in terms of runoff response identified in Germany. The detected seasonal pattern of event type occurrence is regionally consistent and agrees well with the seasonality of hydroclimatic conditions. The proposed framework can be a useful tool for comparative analyses of regional differences and similarities of runoff generation processes at catchment scale and their possible spatial and temporal evolution.

Description: The Svalbard margin represents one of the northernmost gas hydrate provinces worldwide. Vestnesa Ridge (VR) and Svyatogor Ridge (SR) west of Svalbard are two prominent sediment drifts showing abundant pockmarks and sites of seismic chimney structures. Some of these sites at VR are associated with active gas venting and were the focus of drilling and coring with the seafloor‐deployed MARUM‐MeBo70 rig. Understanding the nature of fluid migration and gas hydrate distribution requires (amongst other parameters) knowledge of the thermal regime and in situ gas and pore‐fluid composition. In situ temperature data were obtained downhole at a reference site at VR defining a geothermal gradient of ~78 mK m‐1 (heat flow ~95 mW m‐2). Additional heat‐probe data were obtained to describe the thermal regime of the pockmarks. The highest heat flow values were systematically seen within pockmark depressions and were uncorrelated to gas venting occurrences. Heat flow within pockmarks is typically ~20 mW m‐2 higher than outside pockmarks. Using the downhole temperature data and gas compositions from drilling we model the regional base of the gas hydrate stability zone (BGHSZ). Thermal modeling including topographic effects suggest a BGHSZ up to 40 m deeper than estimated from seismic data. Uncertainties in sediment properties (velocity and thermal conductivity) are only partially explaining the mismatch. Capillary effects due to small sediment grain sizes may shift the free gas occurrence above the equilibrium BGHSZ. Changes in gas composition or pore fluid salinity at greater depth may also explain the discrepancy in observed and modeled BGHSZ.

Description: This study traces dissolved organic matter (DOM) in different water masses of the Arctic Ocean and its effect on the distributions of trace elements (TEs; Fe, Cu, Mn, Ni, Zn, Cd) using fluorescent properties of DOM and the terrigenous biomarker lignin. The Nansen, Amundsen, and Makarov Basins were characterized by the influence of Atlantic water and the fluvial discharge of the Siberian rivers with high concentrations of terrigenous DOM (tDOM). The Canada Basin and the Chukchi Sea were characterized by Pacific water, modified through contact with productive shelf sediments with elevated levels of marine DOM. Within the surface layer of the Beaufort Gyre, meteoric water (river water and precipitation) was characterized by low concentrations of lignin and terrigenous DOM fluorescence proxies as DOM is removed during freezing. High-resolution in situ fluorescence profiles revealed that DOM distribution closely followed isopycnals, indicating the strong influence of sea-ice formation and melt, which was also reflected in strong correlations between DOM fluorescence and brine contributions. The relationship of DOM and hydrography to TEs showed that terrigenous and marine DOM were likely carriers of dissolved Fe, Ni, Cu from the Eurasian shelves into the central Arctic Ocean. Chukchi shelf sediments were important sources of dCd, dZn, and dNi, as well as marine ligands that bind and carry these TEs offshore within the upper halocline (UHC) in the Canada Basin. Our data suggest that tDOM components represent stronger ligands relative to marine DOM components, potentially facilitating the long-range transport of TE to the North Atlantic. Key Points Dissolved Organic Matter (DOM) distribution in the Arctic Ocean is largely controlled by sea ice formation and melt processes DOM distribution in the Arctic Ocean reveals its potential as a tracer for halocline formation and freshwater source assignments Terrigenous and marine DOM are carriers of trace elements from shelves to the open Arctic Ocean, but terrigenous DOM represent stronger ligands

Description: The Weddell Gyre (WG) is one of the main oceanographic features of the Southern Ocean south of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current which plays an influential role in global ocean circulation as well as gas exchange with the atmosphere. We review the state‐of‐the art knowledge concerning the WG from an interdisciplinary perspective, uncovering critical aspects needed to understand this system's role in shaping the future evolution of oceanic heat and carbon uptake over the next decades. The main limitations in our knowledge are related to the conditions in this extreme and remote environment, where the polar night, very low air temperatures, and presence of sea ice year‐round hamper field and remotely sensed measurements. We highlight the importance of winter and under‐ice conditions in the southern WG, the role that new technology will play to overcome present‐day sampling limitations, the importance of the WG connectivity to the low‐latitude oceans and atmosphere, and the expected intensification of the WG circulation as the westerly winds intensify. Greater international cooperation is needed to define key sampling locations that can be visited by any research vessel in the region. Existing transects sampled since the 1980s along the Prime Meridian and along an East‐West section at ~62°S should be maintained with regularity to provide answers to the relevant questions. This approach will provide long‐term data to determine trends and will improve representation of processes for regional, Antarctic‐wide, and global modeling efforts—thereby enhancing predictions of the WG in global ocean circulation and climate.

Description: The potential of Coastal Ocean Alkalinization (COA), a carbon dioxide removal (CDR) climate engineering strategy that chemically increases ocean carbon uptake and storage, is investigated with an Earth system model of intermediate complexity. The CDR potential and possible environmental side effects are estimated for various COA deployment scenarios, assuming olivine as the alkalinity source in ice-free coastal waters (about 8.6% of the global ocean's surface area), with dissolution rates being a function of grain size, ambient seawater temperature and pH. Our results indicate that for a large-enough olivine deployment of small-enough grain sizes (10 μm), atmospheric CO2 could be reduced by more than 800 GtC by the year 2100. However, COA with coarse olivine grains (1000 μm) has little CO2 sequestration potential on this time scale. Ambitious CDR with fine olivine grains would increase coastal aragonite saturation Ω to levels well beyond those that are currently observed. When imposing upper limits for aragonite saturation levels (Ωlim) in the grid boxes subject to COA (Ωlim = 3.4 and 9 chosen as examples), COA still has the potential to reduce atmospheric CO2 by 265 GtC (Ωlim=3.4) to 790 GtC (Ωlim=9) and increase ocean carbon storage by 290 Gt (Ωlim=3.4) to 913 Gt (Ωlim=9) by year 2100.