Description: We have developed a global biogeographic classification of the mesopelagic zone to reflect the regional scales over which the ocean interior varies in terms of biodiversity and function. An integrated approach was necessary, as global gaps in information and variable sampling methods preclude strictly statistical approaches. A panel combining expertise in oceanography, geospatial mapping, and deep-sea biology convened to collate expert opinion on the distributional patterns of pelagic fauna relative to environmental proxies (temperature, salinity, and dissolved oxygen at mesopelagic depths). An iterative Delphi Method integrating additional biological and physical data was used to classify biogeographic ecoregions and to identify the location of ecoregion boundaries or inter-regions gradients. We define 33 global mesopelagic ecoregions. Of these, 20 are oceanic while 13 are ‘distant neritic.’ While each is driven by a complex of controlling factors, the putative primary driver of each ecoregion was identified. While work remains to be done to produce a comprehensive and robust mesopelagic biogeography (i.e., reflecting temporal variation), we believe that the classification set forth in this study will prove to be a useful and timely input to policy planning and management for conservation of deep-pelagic marine resources. In particular, it gives an indication of the spatial scale at which faunal communities are expected to be broadly similar in composition, and hence can inform application of ecosystem-based management approaches, marine spatial planning and the distribution and spacing of networks of representative protected areas

Description: Microbial degradation of organic carbon in marine sediments is a key driver of global element cycles on multiple time scales. However, it is not known to what depth microorganisms alter organic carbon in marine sediments or how microbial rates of organic carbon processing change with depth, and thus time since burial, on a global scale. To better understand the connection between the dynamic carbon cycle and life’s limits in the deep subsurface, we have combined a number of global data sets with a reaction transport model (RTM) describing first, organic carbon degradation in marine sediments deposited throughout the Quaternary Period and second, a bioenergetic model for microbial activity. The RTM is applied globally, recognizing three distinct depositional environments – continental shelf, margin and abyssal zones. The results include the masses of particulate organic carbon, POC, stored in three sediment-depth layers: bioturbated Holocene (1.7 × 10^17 g C), non-bioturbated Holocene (2.6 × 10^18 g C) and Pleistocene (1.4 × 1020 g C) sediments. The global depth-integrated rates of POC degradation have been determined to be 6.8 × 10^13, 1.2 × 10^14 and 1.2 × 10^14 g C yr-1 for the same three layers, respectively. A number of maps depicting the distribution of POC, as well as the fraction that has been degraded have also been generated. Using POC degradation as a proxy for microbial catabolic activity, total heterotrophic processing of POC throughout the Quaternary is estimated to be between 10^-11 – 10^-6 g C cm-3 yr-1, depending on the time since deposition and location. Bioenergetic modeling reveals that laboratory-determined microbial maintenance powers are poor predictors of sediment biomass concentration, but that cell concentrations in marine sediments can be accurately predicted by combining bioenergetic models with the rates of POC degradation determined in this study. Our model can be used to quantitatively describe both the carbon cycle and microbial activity on a global scale for marine sediments less than 2.59 million years old.

Description: The presence of tipping points in ecological systems implies abrupt changes in the dynamics of the ecosystem. In these piecewise-smooth dynamical systems sliding dynamics, i.e., dynamics on the switching boundary, have been reported for population models. However, the question whether or not, and if so under which conditions, sliding dynamics may occur in an optimally controlled system have not yet been studied. We explore this issue in a simple harvesting model with two regimes, and find that optimal sliding may occur if regular steady states do not exist. Hence, sliding dynamics may be part of an optimal policy.

Description: Highlights • Foraminifera responded faster to environmental perturbations than macroorganisms. • Population densities doubled and Asterigerinata mamilla bloomed under stronger flow. • Excess of threshold values and changes to new ecosystems induce acme occurrences. Abstract Benthic foraminifera are deemed sensitive indicators of environmental conditions. Triggers and magnitudes of faunal response to environmental changes are yet poorly constrained. Benthic foraminiferal faunas were monitored annually at Ria Formosa (Algarve, Portugal) coastal lagoon since 2013. Distinct environmental changes were recognised during the monitoring period. The relocation of a tidal inlet in winter 2015 effected faster flushing, higher tidal levels, and stronger currents in the Esteiro do Ancão tidal channel. The epibenthic foraminiferal species Asterigerinata mamilla increased in abundance and the population densities of the whole fauna were double as high as before inlet relocation. Enhanced sediment redeposition was recorded and extensive polychaete colonies successively replaced firmground patches with oysters. The standing stock of the foraminiferal fauna declined in the next year due to food impoverishment, while the high hydraulic energy levels and high percentages of Asterigerinata mamilla maintained. Benthic foraminifera responded much faster to environmental perturbations than macroorganisms identifying them as powerful proxies in environmental studies.

Description: Forecasting and early warning systems are important investments to protect lives, properties and livelihood. While early warning systems are frequently used to predict the magnitude, location and timing of potentially damaging events, these systems rarely provide impact estimates, such as the expected amount and distribution of physical damage, human consequences, disruption of services or financial loss. Complementing early warning systems with impact forecasts has a two‐fold advantage: it would provide decision makers with richer information to take informed decisions about emergency measures, and focus the attention of different disciplines on a common target. This would allow capitalizing on synergies between different disciplines and boosting the development of multi‐hazard early warning systems. This review discusses the state‐of‐the‐art in impact forecasting for a wide range of natural hazards. We outline the added value of impact‐based warnings compared to hazard forecasting for the emergency phase, indicate challenges and pitfalls, and synthesize the review results across hazard types most relevant for Europe. Plain language summary Forecasting and early warning systems are important investments to protect lives, properties and livelihood. While such systems are frequently used to predict the magnitude, location and timing of potentially damaging events, they rarely provide impact estimates, such as the expected physical damage, human consequences, disruption of services or financial loss. Extending hazard forecast systems to include impact estimates promises many benefits for the emergency phase, for instance, for organising evacuations. We review and compare the state‐of‐the‐art of impact forcasting across a wide range of natural hazards, and outline opportunities and key challenges for research and development of impact forecasting.

Description: Accurately predicting future ocean acidification (OA) conditions is crucial for advancing OA research at regional and global scales, and guiding society's mitigation and adaptation efforts. This study presents a new model-data fusion product covering 10 global surface OA indicators based on 14 Earth System Models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), along with three recent observational ocean carbon data products. The indicators include fugacity of carbon dioxide, pH on total scale, total hydrogen ion content, free hydrogen ion content, carbonate ion content, aragonite saturation state, calcite saturation state, Revelle Factor, total dissolved inorganic carbon content, and total alkalinity content. The evolution of these OA indicators is presented on a global surface ocean 1° × 1° grid as decadal averages every 10 years from preindustrial conditions (1750), through historical conditions (1850–2010), and to five future Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (2020–2100): SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5. These OA trajectories represent an improvement over previous OA data products with respect to data quantity, spatial and temporal coverage, diversity of the underlying data and model simulations, and the provided SSPs. The generated data product offers a state-of-the-art research and management tool for the 21st century under the combined stressors of global climate change and ocean acidification. The gridded data product is available in NetCDF at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Information: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/oceans/ncei/ocads/metadata/0259391.html, and global maps of these indicators are available in jpeg at: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/ocean-carbon-acidification-data-system/synthesis/surface-oa-indicators.html. Key Points: - This study presents the evolution of 10 ocean acidification (OA) indicators in the global surface ocean from 1750 to 2100 - By leveraging 14 Earth System Models (ESMs) and the latest observational data, it represents a significant advancement in OA projections - This inter-model comparison effort showcases the overall agreements among different ESMs in projecting surface ocean carbon variables

Description: Highlights • More diverse non-native taxa generally include more economically costly species. • Chordates, nematodes and pathogens are among significantly over-represented taxa. • Monetary cost magnitude links positively to numbers of costly invasive species. • Costs are biased towards a few ‘hyper-costly’ invasive species groups. • Future invasion rates will continue to harbour new economically costly species. Abstract A dominant syndrome of the Anthropocene is the rapid worldwide spread of invasive species with devastating environmental and socio-economic impacts. However, the dynamics underlying the impacts of biological invasions remain contested. A hypothesis posits that the richness of impactful invasive species increases proportionally with the richness of non-native species more generally. A competing hypothesis suggests that certain species features disproportionately enhance the chances of non-native species becoming impactful, causing invasive species to arise disproportionately relative to the numbers of non-native species. We test whether invasive species with reported monetary costs reflect global numbers of established non-native species among phyla, classes, and families. Our results reveal that numbers of invasive species with economic costs largely reflect non-native species richness among taxa (i.e., in 96 % of families). However, a few costly taxa were over- and under-represented, and their composition differed among environments and regions. Chordates, nematodes, and pathogenic groups tended to be the most over-represented phyla with reported monetary costs, with mammals, insects, fungi, roundworms, and medically-important microorganisms being over-represented classes. Numbers of costly invasive species increased significantly with non-native richness per taxon, while monetary cost magnitudes at the family level were also significantly related to costly invasive species richness. Costs were biased towards a few ‘hyper-costly’ taxa (such as termites, mosquitoes, cats, weevils, rodents, ants, and asters). Ordination analysis revealed significant dissimilarity between non-native and costly invasive taxon assemblages. These results highlight taxonomic groups which harbour disproportionately high numbers of costly invasive species and monetary cost magnitudes. Collectively, our findings support prevention of arrival and containment of spread of non-native species as a whole through effective strategies for mitigation of the rapidly amplifying impacts of invasive species. Yet, the hyper- costly taxa identified here should receive greater focus from managers to reduce impacts of current invasive species.

Description: The Copenhagen Diagnosis is a summary of the global warming peer reviewed science since 2007. Produced by a team of 26 scientists led by the University of New South Wales Climate Research Centre, the Diagnosis convincingly proves that the effects of global warming have gotten worse in the last three years. It is a timely update to the UN’s Intercontinental Panel on Climate Change 2007 Fourth Assessment document (IPCC AR4). The report places the blame for the century long temperature increase on human factors and says the turning point ";must come soon";. If we are to limit warming to 2 degrees above pre-industrial values, global emissions must peak by 2020 at the latest and then decline rapidly. The scientists warned that waiting for higher levels of scientific certainty could mean that some tipping points will be crossed before they are recognized. By 2050 we will effectively need to be in a post-carbon economy if we are to avoid unlivable temperatures.

Description: Ocean deoxygenation is a threat to marine ecosystems. We evaluated the potential of two ocean intervention technologies, i.e. “artificial downwelling (AD)” and “artificial upwelling (AU)”, for remedying the expansion of Oxygen Deficient Zones (ODZs). The model‐based assessment simulated AD and AU implementations for 80 years along the eastern Pacific ODZ. When AD was simulated by pumping surface seawater to the 178 ~ 457 m depth range of the ODZ, vertically integrated oxygen increased by up to 4.5% in the deployment region. Pumping water from 457 m depth to the surface (i.e. AU), where it can equilibrate with the atmosphere, increased the vertically integrated oxygen by 1.03%. However, both simulated AD and AU increased biological production via enhanced nutrient supply to the sea surface, resulting in enhanced export production and subsequent aerobic remineralization also outside of the actual implementation region, and an ultimate net decline of global oceanic oxygen.

Description: Over two million leisure boats use the coastal areas of the Baltic Sea for recreational purposes. The majority of these boats are painted with toxic antifouling paints that release biocides into the coastal ecosystems and negatively impact non-targeted species. Regulations concerning the use of antifouling paints differ dramatically between countries bordering the Baltic Sea and most of them lack the support of biological data. In the present study, we collected data on biofouling in 17 marinas along the Baltic Sea coast during three consecutive boating seasons (May–October 2014, 2015 and 2016). In this context, we compared different monitoring strategies and developed a fouling index (FI) to characterise marinas according to the recorded biofouling abundance and type (defined according to the hardness and strength of attachment to the substrate). Lower FI values, i.e. softer and/or less abundant biofouling, were consistently observed in marinas in the northern Baltic Sea. The decrease in FI from the south-western to the northern Baltic Sea was partially explained by the concomitant decrease in salinity. Nevertheless, most of the observed changes in biofouling seemed to be determined by local factors and inter-annual variability, which emphasizes the necessity for systematic monitoring of biofouling by end-users and/or authorities for the effective implementation of non-toxic antifouling alternatives in marinas. Based on the obtained results, we discuss how monitoring programs and other related measures can be used to support adaptive management strategies towards more sustainable antifouling practices in the Baltic Sea.