Description: Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize datasets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (E-FOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (E-LUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (G(ATM)) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (S-OCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (S-LAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (B-IM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as +/- 1 sigma. For the first time, an approach is shown to reconcile the difference in our E-LUC estimate with the one from national greenhouse gas inventories, supporting the assessment of collective countries' climate progress. For the year 2020, E-FOS declined by 5.4 % relative to 2019, with fossil emissions at 9.5 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1) (9.3 +/- 0.5 GtC yr(-1) when the cement carbonation sink is included), and E-LUC was 0.9 +/- 0.7 GtC yr(-1), for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission of 10.2 +/- 0.8 GtC yr(-1) (37.4 +/- 2.9 GtCO(2)). Also, for 2020, G(ATM) was 5.0 +/- 0.2 GtC yr-1 (2.4 +/- 0.1 ppm yr(-1)), S-OCEAN was 3.0 +/- 0.4 GtC yr(-1), and S-LAND was 2.9 +/- 1 GtC yr(-1), with a B-IM of -0.8 GtC yr(-1). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2020 reached 412.45 +/- 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2021 suggest a rebound in E-FOS relative to 2020 of +4.8 % (4.2 % to 5.4 %) globally. Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959-2020, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr(-1) persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use changes emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and datasets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this dataset (Friedlingstein et al., 2020, 2019; Le Quere et al., 2018b, a, 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). The data presented in this work are available at (Friedlingstein et al., 2021).

Description: Planktonic food webs were studied contemporaneously in a mesoscale cyclonic (upwelling, ∼ 13 months old) and an anticyclonic (downwelling, ∼ 2 months old) eddy as well as in an uninfluenced background situation in the oligotrophic southeastern Mediterranean Sea (SEMS) during late summer 2018. We show that integrated nutrient concentrations were higher in the cyclone compared to the anticyclone or the background stations by 2–13-fold. Concurrently, Synechococcus and Prochlorococcus were the dominant autotrophs abundance-wise in the oligotrophic anticyclone (∼ 300 × 1010 cells m−2). In the cyclone, functional groups such as dinoflagellates, Prymnesiophyceae and Ochrophyta contributed substantially to the total phytoplankton abundance (∼ 14 × 1010 cells m−2), which was ∼ 65 % lower at the anticyclone and background stations (∼ 5 × 1010 cells m−2). Primary production was highest in the cyclonic eddy (191 ) and 2–5-fold lower outside the eddy area. Heterotrophic prokaryotic cell-specific activity was highest in the cyclone (∼ 10 ), while the least productive cells were found in the anticyclone (4 ). Total zooplankton biomass in the upper 300 m was 10-fold higher in the cyclone compared with the anticyclone or background stations (1337 vs. 112–133 mg C m−2, respectively). Copepod diversity was much higher in the cyclone (44 species), compared to the anticyclone (6 small-size species). Our results highlight that cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies show significantly different community structure and food-web dynamics in oligotrophic environments, with cyclones representing productive oases in the marine desert of the SEMS.

Description: In engineering, machines are typically built after a careful conception and design process: All components of a system, their roles and the interaction between them is well understood, and often even digital models of the system exist before the actual hardware is built. This enables simulations and even feedback loops between the real-world system and a digital model, leading to a digital twin that allows better testing, prediction and understanding of complex effects. On the contrary, in Earth sciences, and particularly in ocean sciences, models exist only for certain aspects of the real world, of certain processes and of some interactions and dependencies between different “components” of the ocean. These individual models cover large temporal (seconds to millions of years) and spatial (millimetres to thousands of kilometres) scales, a variety of field data underpin them, and their results are represented in many different ways. A key to enabling digital twins in the oceans is fusion at different levels, in particular, fusion of data sources and modalities, fusion over different scales and fusion of differing representations. We outline these challenges and exemplify different envisioned digital twins employed in the oceans involving remote sensing, underwater photogrammetry and computer vision, focusing on optical aspects of the digital twinning process. In particular, we look at the holistic sensing scenarios of optical properties in coastal waters as well as seafloor dynamics at volcanic slopes and discuss road blockers for digital twins as well as potential solutions to increase and widen the use of digital twins.

Description: Plastic debris is the most common and exponentially increasing human pollutant in the world's ocean. The distribution and impact of plastic in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans have been the subject of many publications but not so the Indian Ocean (IO). Some of the IO rim countries have the highest population densities globally and mismanagement of plastic waste is of concern in many of these rim states. Some of the most plastic-polluted rivers empty into the IO, with all this suggesting that the IO receives a tremendous amount of plastic debris each year. However, the concentration, distribution, and impacts of plastics in the IO are poorly understood as the region is under-sampled compared to other oceans. In this review, we discuss sources and sinks, which are specific to the IO. We also discuss unique atmospheric, oceanographic, and topographic features of the IO that control plastic distribution, such as reversing wind directions due to the monsoon, fronts, and upwelling regions. We identify hotspots of possible plastic accumulation in the IO, which differ between the two hemispheres. In the southern IO, plastics accumulate in a garbage patch in the subtropical gyre. However, this garbage patch is not well defined, and plastics may leak into the southern Atlantic or the Pacific Ocean. There is no subtropical gyre and associated garbage in the northern IO due to the presence of landmasses. Instead, the majority of buoyant plastics most likely end up on coastlines. Finally, we identify the vast knowledge gaps concerning plastics in the IO and point to the most pressing topics for future investigation.

Description: The incorporation of water isotopologues into the hydrology of general circulation models (GCMs) facilitates the comparison between modeled and measured proxy data in paleoclimate archives. However, the variability and drivers of measured and modeled water isotopologues, as well as the diversity of their representation in different models, are not well constrained. Improving our understanding of this variability in past and present climates will help to better constrain future climate change projections and decrease their range of uncertainty. Speleothems are a precisely datable terrestrial paleoclimate archives and provide well-preserved (semi-)continuous multivariate isotope time series in the lower latitudes and mid-latitudes and are therefore well suited to assess climate and isotope variability on decadal and longer timescales. However, the relationships of speleothem oxygen and carbon isotopes to climate variables are influenced by site-specific parameters, and their comparison to GCMs is not always straightforward. Here we compare speleothem oxygen and carbon isotopic signatures from the Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and Analysis database version 2 (SISALv2) to the output of five different water-isotope-enabled GCMs (ECHAM5-wiso, GISS-E2-R, iCESM, iHadCM3, and isoGSM) over the last millennium (850–1850 CE). We systematically evaluate differences and commonalities between the standardized model simulation outputs. The goal is to distinguish climatic drivers of variability for modeled isotopes and compare them to those of measured isotopes. We find strong regional differences in the oxygen isotope signatures between models that can partly be attributed to differences in modeled surface temperature. At low latitudes, precipitation amount is the dominant driver for stable water isotope variability; however, at cave locations the agreement between modeled temperature variability is higher than for precipitation variability. While modeled isotopic signatures at cave locations exhibited extreme events coinciding with changes in volcanic and solar forcing, such fingerprints are not apparent in the speleothem isotopes. This may be attributed to the lower temporal resolution of speleothem records compared to the events that are to be detected. Using spectral analysis, we can show that all models underestimate decadal and longer variability compared to speleothems (albeit to varying extents). We found that no model excels in all analyzed comparisons, although some perform better than the others in either mean or variability. Therefore, we advise a multi-model approach whenever comparing proxy data to modeled data. Considering karst and cave internal processes, e.g., through isotope-enabled karst models, may alter the variability in speleothem isotopes and play an important role in determining the most appropriate model. By exploring new ways of analyzing the relationship between the oxygen and carbon isotopes, their variability, and co-variability across timescales, we provide methods that may serve as a baseline for future studies with different models using, e.g., different isotopes, different climate archives, or different time periods.

Description: Canals provide wide-ranging economic benefits, while also serving as corridors for the introduction and spread of aquatic alien species, potentially leading to negative ecological and economic impacts. However, to date, no comprehensive quantifications of the reported economic costs of these species have been done. Here, we used the InvaCost database on the monetary impact of invasive alien species to identify the costs of those facilitated by three major canal systems: the European Inland Canals, Suez Canal, and Panama Canal. While we identified a staggering number of species having spread via these systems, monetary costs have been reported only for a few. A total of $33.6 million in costs have been reported from species linked to European Inland Canals (the fishhook waterflea Cercopagis pengoi and the zebra mussel Dreissena polymorpha) and $8.6 million linked to the Suez Canal (the silver-cheeked toadfish Lagocephalus sceleratus, the lionfish Pterois miles, and the nomad jellyfish Rhopilema nomadica), but no recorded costs were found for species facilitated by the Panama Canal. We thus identified a pervasive lack of information on the monetary costs of invasions facilitated by canals and highlighted the uneven distribution of costs.

Description: Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in Earth System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge of the effects of global warming on past and future changes in climate of the Baltic Sea region is summarised and assessed. The study is an update of the Second Assessment of Climate Change (BACC II) published in 2015 and focuses on the atmosphere, land, cryosphere, ocean, sediments, and the terrestrial and marine biosphere. Based on the summaries of the recent knowledge gained in palaeo-, historical, and future regional climate research, we find that the main conclusions from earlier assessments still remain valid. However, new long-term, homogenous observational records, for example, for Scandinavian glacier inventories, sea-level-driven saltwater inflows, so-called Major Baltic Inflows, and phytoplankton species distribution, and new scenario simulations with improved models, for example, for glaciers, lake ice, and marine food web, have become available. In many cases, uncertainties can now be better estimated than before because more models were included in the ensembles, especially for the Baltic Sea. With the help of coupled models, feedbacks between several components of the Earth system have been studied, and multiple driver studies were performed, e.g. projections of the food web that include fisheries, eutrophication, and climate change. New datasets and projections have led to a revised understanding of changes in some variables such as salinity. Furthermore, it has become evident that natural variability, in particular for the ocean on multidecadal timescales, is greater than previously estimated, challenging our ability to detect observed and projected changes in climate. In this context, the first palaeoclimate simulations regionalised for the Baltic Sea region are instructive. Hence, estimated uncertainties for the projections of many variables increased. In addition to the well-known influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation, it was found that also other low-frequency modes of internal variability, such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, have profound effects on the climate of the Baltic Sea region. Challenges were also identified, such as the systematic discrepancy between future cloudiness trends in global and regional models and the difficulty of confidently attributing large observed changes in marine ecosystems to climate change. Finally, we compare our results with other coastal sea assessments, such as the North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment (NOSCCA), and find that the effects of climate change on the Baltic Sea differ from those on the North Sea, since Baltic Sea oceanography and ecosystems are very different from other coastal seas such as the North Sea. While the North Sea dynamics are dominated by tides, the Baltic Sea is characterised by brackish water, a perennial vertical stratification in the southern subbasins, and a seasonal sea ice cover in the northern subbasins.

Description: The Indian Ocean is coupled to atmospheric dynamics and chemical composition via several unique mechanisms, such as the seasonally varying monsoon circulation. During the winter monsoon season, high pollution levels are regularly observed over the entire northern Indian Ocean, while during the summer monsoon, clean air dominates the atmospheric composition, leading to distinct chemical regimes. The changing atmospheric composition over the Indian Ocean can interact with oceanic biogeochemical cycles and impact marine ecosystems, resulting in potential climate feedbacks. Here, we review current progress in detecting and understanding atmospheric gas-phase composition over the Indian Ocean and its local and global impacts. The review considers results from recent Indian Ocean ship campaigns, satellite measurements, station data, and information on continental and oceanic trace gas emissions. The distribution of all major pollutants and greenhouse gases shows pronounced differences between the landmass source regions and the Indian Ocean, with strong gradients over the coastal areas. Surface pollution and ozone are highest during the winter monsoon over the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea coastal waters due to air mass advection from the Indo-Gangetic Plain and continental outflow from Southeast Asia. We observe, however, that unusual types of wind patterns can lead to pronounced deviations of the typical trace gas distributions. For example, the ozone distribution maxima shift to different regions under wind scenarios that differ from the regular seasonal transport patterns. The distribution of greenhouse gases over the Indian Ocean shows many similarities when compared to the pollution fields, but also some differences of the latitudinal and seasonal variations resulting from their long lifetimes and biogenic sources. Mixing ratios of greenhouse gases such as methane show positive trends over the Indian Ocean, but long-term changes in pollution and ozone due to changing emissions and transport patterns require further investigation. Although we know that changing atmospheric composition and perturbations within the Indian Ocean affect each other, the impacts of atmospheric pollution on oceanic biogeochemistry and trace gas cycling are severely understudied. We highlight potential mechanisms, future research topics, and observational requirements that need to be explored in order to fully understand such interactions and feedbacks in the Indian Ocean region.