Description: The incorporation of water isotopologues into the hydrology of general circulation models (GCMs) facilitates the comparison between modeled and measured proxy data in paleoclimate archives. However, the variability and drivers of measured and modeled water isotopologues, as well as the diversity of their representation in different models, are not well constrained. Improving our understanding of this variability in past and present climates will help to better constrain future climate change projections and decrease their range of uncertainty. Speleothems are a precisely datable terrestrial paleoclimate archives and provide well-preserved (semi-)continuous multivariate isotope time series in the lower latitudes and mid-latitudes and are therefore well suited to assess climate and isotope variability on decadal and longer timescales. However, the relationships of speleothem oxygen and carbon isotopes to climate variables are influenced by site-specific parameters, and their comparison to GCMs is not always straightforward. Here we compare speleothem oxygen and carbon isotopic signatures from the Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and Analysis database version 2 (SISALv2) to the output of five different water-isotope-enabled GCMs (ECHAM5-wiso, GISS-E2-R, iCESM, iHadCM3, and isoGSM) over the last millennium (850–1850 CE). We systematically evaluate differences and commonalities between the standardized model simulation outputs. The goal is to distinguish climatic drivers of variability for modeled isotopes and compare them to those of measured isotopes. We find strong regional differences in the oxygen isotope signatures between models that can partly be attributed to differences in modeled surface temperature. At low latitudes, precipitation amount is the dominant driver for stable water isotope variability; however, at cave locations the agreement between modeled temperature variability is higher than for precipitation variability. While modeled isotopic signatures at cave locations exhibited extreme events coinciding with changes in volcanic and solar forcing, such fingerprints are not apparent in the speleothem isotopes. This may be attributed to the lower temporal resolution of speleothem records compared to the events that are to be detected. Using spectral analysis, we can show that all models underestimate decadal and longer variability compared to speleothems (albeit to varying extents). We found that no model excels in all analyzed comparisons, although some perform better than the others in either mean or variability. Therefore, we advise a multi-model approach whenever comparing proxy data to modeled data. Considering karst and cave internal processes, e.g., through isotope-enabled karst models, may alter the variability in speleothem isotopes and play an important role in determining the most appropriate model. By exploring new ways of analyzing the relationship between the oxygen and carbon isotopes, their variability, and co-variability across timescales, we provide methods that may serve as a baseline for future studies with different models using, e.g., different isotopes, different climate archives, or different time periods.

Description: The North Atlantic Oscillation is the dominant atmospheric pressure mode in the North Atlantic region and affects winter temperature and precipitation in the Mediterranean, northwest Europe, Greenland, and Asia1. The index that describes the sea-level pressure difference between Iceland and the Azores is correlated with a dipole precipitation pattern over northwest Europe and northwest Africa. How the North Atlantic Oscillation will develop as the Greenland ice sheet melts is unclear. A potential past analogue is the early Holocene, during which melting ice sheets around the North Atlantic, freshened surface waters, affecting the strength of the meridional overturning circulation. Here we present a Holocene rainfall record from northwest Africa based on speleothem δ18O and compare it against a speleothem-based rainfall record from Europe. The two records are positively correlated during the early Holocene, followed by a shift to an anti-correlation, similar to the modern record, during the mid-Holocene. On the basis of our simulations with an Earth system model, we suggest the shift to the anti-correlation reflects a large-scale atmospheric and oceanic reorganization in response to the demise of the Laurentide ice sheet and a strong reduction of meltwater flux to the North Atlantic, pointing to a potential sensitivity of the North Atlantic Oscillation to the melting of ice sheets.

Description: The North Atlantic Oscillation is the dominant atmospheric pressure mode in the North Atlantic region and affects winter temperature and precipitation in the Mediterranean, northwest Europe, Greenland, and Asia1. The index1 that describes the sea-level pressure difference between Iceland and the Azores is correlated with a dipole precipitation pattern over northwest Europe and northwest Africa. How the North Atlantic Oscillation will develop as the Greenland ice sheet melts is unclear2. A potential past analogue is the early Holocene, during which melting ice sheets around the North Atlantic3, 4 freshened surface waters, affecting the strength of the meridional overturning circulation5. Here we present a Holocene rainfall record from northwest Africa based on speleothem δ18O and compare it against a speleothem-based rainfall record from Europe6. The two records are positively correlated during the early Holocene, followed by a shift to an anti-correlation, similar to the modern record, during the mid-Holocene. On the basis of our simulations with an Earth system model, we suggest the shift to the anti-correlation reflects a large-scale atmospheric and oceanic reorganization in response to the demise of the Laurentide ice sheet and a strong reduction of meltwater flux to the North Atlantic, pointing to a potential sensitivity of the North Atlantic Oscillation to the melting of ice sheets.

Description: The incorporation of water isotopologues into the hydrology of general circulation models (GCMs) facilitates the comparison between modeled and measured proxy data in paleoclimate archives. However, the variability and drivers of measured and modeled water isotopologues, as well as the diversity of their representation in different models, are not well constrained. Improving our understanding of this variability in past and present climates will help to better constrain future climate change projections and decrease their range of uncertainty. Speleothems are a precisely datable terrestrial paleoclimate archives and provide well-preserved (semi-)continuous multivariate isotope time series in the lower latitudes and mid-latitudes and are therefore well suited to assess climate and isotope variability on decadal and longer timescales. However, the relationships of speleothem oxygen and carbon isotopes to climate variables are influenced by site-specific parameters, and their comparison to GCMs is not always straightforward. Here we compare speleothem oxygen and carbon isotopic signatures from the Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and Analysis database version 2 (SISALv2) to the output of five different water-isotope-enabled GCMs (ECHAM5-wiso, GISSE2-R, iCESM, iHadCM3, and isoGSM) over the last millennium (850–1850 CE). We systematically evaluate differences and commonalities between the standardized model simulation outputs. The goal is to distinguish climatic drivers of variability for modeled isotopes and compare them to those of measured isotopes. We find strong regional differences in the oxygen isotope signatures between models that can partly be attributed to differences in modeled surface temperature. At low latitudes, precipitation amount is the dominant driver for stable water isotope variability; however, at cave locations the agreement between modeled temperature variability is higher than for precipitation variability. While modeled isotopic signatures at cave locations exhibited extreme events coinciding with changes in volcanic and solar forcing, such fingerprints are not apparent in the speleothem isotopes. This may be attributed to the lower temporal resolution of speleothem records compared to the events that are to be detected. Using spectral analysis, we can show that all models underestimate decadal and longer variability compared to speleothems (albeit to varying extents). We found that no model excels in all analyzed comparisons, although some perform better than the others in either mean or variability. Therefore, we advise a multi-model approach whenever comparing proxy data to modeled data. Considering karst and cave internal processes, e.g., through isotope-enabled karst models, may alter the variability in speleothem isotopes and play an important role in determining the most appropriate model. By exploring new ways of analyzing the relationship between the oxygen and carbon isotopes, their variability, and co-variability across timescales, we provide methods that may serve as a baseline for future studies with different models using, e.g., different isotopes, different climate archives, or different time periods.

Description: We present the first high-resolution trace element (Mg/Ca, Sr/Ca, Ba/Ca) record from a stalagmite in southwestern Romania covering the last 3.6 ka, which provides the potential for quantitative climate reconstruction. Precise age control is based on three independent dating methods, in particular for the last 250 yr, where chemical lamina counting is combined with the identification of the 20th century radiocarbon bomb peak and 230Th/U dating. Long-term cave monitoring and model simulations of drip water and speleothem elemental variability indicate that precipitation-related processes are the main drivers of speleothem Mg/Ca ratios. Calibration against instrumental climate data shows a significant anti-correlation of speleothem Mg/Ca ratios with autumn/winter (October to March) precipitation (r = −0.61, p 〈 0.01), which is statistically robust when considering age uncertainties and auto-correlation. This relationship is used to develop a quantitative reconstruction of autumn/winter precipitation. During the late Holocene, our data suggest a heterogeneous pattern of past regional winter hydroclimate in the Carpathian/Balkan realm, along with intermittent weakening of the dominant influence of North Atlantic forcing. In agreement with other regional paleo-hydrological reconstructions, the observed variability reveals periodically occurring strong NW-SE hydro-climate gradients. We hypothesize, that this pattern is caused by shifts of the eastern edge of the area of influence of the NAO across central-eastern Europe due to the confluence of North Atlantic forcing, and other climatic features such as the East Atlantic/Western Russia (EAWR) pattern.

Description: In this study, the dead carbon fraction (DCF) variations in stalagmite M1-5 from Socotra Island in the western Arabian Sea were investigated through a new set of high-precision U-series and radiocarbon (14C) dates. The data reveal an extreme case of very high and also climate dependent DCF values. For M1-5 an average DCF of 56.2 ± 3.4 % is observed between 27 and 18 kyr BP. Such high DCF values indicate a high influence of aged soil organic matter (SOM) and nearly completely closed system carbonate dissolution conditions. Towards the end of the last glacial period decreasing Mg/Ca ratios suggest an increase in precipitation which caused a marked change in the soil carbon cycling as indicated by sharply decreasing DCF. This is in contrast to the relation of soil infiltration and reservoir age observed in stalagmites from temperate zones. For Socotra Island, which is influenced by the East African-Indian monsoon, we propose that more humid conditions and enhanced net-infiltration after the LGM led to denser vegetation and thus lowered the DCF by increased 14CO2 input into the soil zone. The onset of the Younger Dryas (YD) is represented in the record by the end of DCF decrease with a sudden change to much higher and extremely variable reservoir ages. Our study highlights the dramatic variability of soil carbon cycling processes and vegetation feedback on Socotra Island manifested in stalagmite reservoir ages on both long-term trends and sub-centennial timescales, thus providing evidence for climate influence on stalagmite radiocarbon. This is of particular importance for studies focussing on 14C calibration and atmospheric reconstruction through stalagmites which relies on largely climate independent soil carbon cycling above the cave.