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  • 1
    Book
    Book
    Positive feedback of the carbon cycle on future climate change (2000)
    Details Availability
    Type of Medium: Book
    Pages: 16 S , graph. Darst
    Series Statement: Notes du Pole de Modelisation 19
    Language: English
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  • 2
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    How uncertainties in future climate change predictions translate into future terrestrial carbon fluxes (2005)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Science Ltd
    Global change biology 11 (2005), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1365-2486
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: We forced a global terrestrial carbon cycle model by climate fields of 14 ocean and atmosphere general circulation models (OAGCMs) to simulate the response of terrestrial carbon pools and fluxes to climate change over the next century. These models participated in the second phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP2), where a 1% per year increase of atmospheric CO2 was prescribed. We obtain a reduction in net land uptake because of climate change ranging between 1.4 and 5.7 Gt C yr−1 at the time of atmospheric CO2 doubling. Such a reduction in terrestrial carbon sinks is largely dominated by the response of tropical ecosystems, where soil water stress occurs. The uncertainty in the simulated land carbon cycle response is the consequence of discrepancies in land temperature and precipitation changes simulated by the OAGCMs. We use a statistical approach to assess the coherence of the land carbon fluxes response to climate change. The biospheric carbon fluxes and pools changes have a coherent response in the tropics, in the Mediterranean region and in high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. This is because of a good coherence of soil water content change in the first two regions and of temperature change in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.Then we evaluate the carbon uptake uncertainties to the assumptions on plant productivity sensitivity to atmospheric CO2 and on decomposition rate sensitivity to temperature. We show that these uncertainties are on the same order of magnitude than the uncertainty because of climate change. Finally, we find that the OAGCMs having the largest climate sensitivities to CO2 are the ones with the largest soil drying in the tropics, and therefore with the largest reduction of carbon uptake.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.00957.x
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    Paper (German National Licenses)
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  • 3
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Comparing and evaluating process-based ecosystem model predictions of carbon and water fluxes in major European forest biomes (2005)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Science Ltd
    Global change biology 11 (2005), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1365-2486
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Process-based models can be classified into: (a) terrestrial biogeochemical models (TBMs), which simulate fluxes of carbon, water and nitrogen coupled within terrestrial ecosystems, and (b) dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), which further couple these processes interactively with changes in slow ecosystem processes depending on resource competition, establishment, growth and mortality of different vegetation types. In this study, four models – RHESSys, GOTILWA+, LPJ-GUESS and ORCHIDEE – representing both modelling approaches were compared and evaluated against benchmarks provided by eddy-covariance measurements of carbon and water fluxes at 15 forest sites within the EUROFLUX project. Overall, model-measurement agreement varied greatly among sites. Both modelling approaches have somewhat different strengths, but there was no model among those tested that universally performed well on the two variables evaluated. Small biases and errors suggest that ORCHIDEE and GOTILWA+ performed better in simulating carbon fluxes while LPJ-GUESS and RHESSys did a better job in simulating water fluxes. In general, the models can be considered as useful tools for studies of climate change impacts on carbon and water cycling in forests. However, the various sources of variation among models simulations and between models simulations and observed data described in this study place some constraints on the results and to some extent reduce their reliability. For example, at most sites in the Mediterranean region all models generally performed poorly most likely because of problems in the representation of water stress effects on both carbon uptake by photosynthesis and carbon release by heterotrophic respiration (Rh).The use of flux data as a means of assessing key processes in models of this type is an important approach to improving model performance. Our results show that the models have value but that further model development is necessary with regard to the representation of the some of the key ecosystem processes.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.01036.x
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  • 4
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    The impact of high altitude aircraft on the ozone layer in the stratosphere (1994)
    Springer
    Journal of atmospheric chemistry 18 (1994), S. 103-128 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-0662
    Keywords: High altitude aircraft ; stratospheric ozone layer ; aerosol effect ; heterogeneous chemistry
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The paper discusses the potential effects on the ozone layer of gases released by the engines of proposed high altitude supersonic aircraft. The major problem arises from the emissions of nitrogen oxides which have the potential to destroy significant quantities of ozone in the stratosphere. The magnitude of the perturbation is highly dependent on the cruise altitude of the aircraft. Furthermore, the depletion of ozone is substantially reduced when heterogeneous conversion of nitrogen oxides into nitric acid on sulfate aerosol particles is taken into account in the calculation. The sensitivity of the aerosol load on stratospheric ozone is investigated. First, the model indicates that the aerosol load induced by the SO2 released by aircraft is increased by about 10–20% above the background aerosols at mid-high latitude of the Northern Hemisphere at 15 km for the NASA emission scenario A (the NASA emission scenarios are explained in Tables I to III). This increase in aerosol has small effects on stratospheric ozone. Second, when the aerosol load is increased following a volcanic eruption similar to the eruption of El Chichon (Mexico, April 1982), the ozone column in spring increases by as much as 9% in response to the injection of NO x from the aircraft with the NASA emission scenario A. Finally, the modeled suggests that significant ozone depletion could result from the formation of additional polar stratospheric clouds produced by the injection of H2O and HNO3 by the aircraft engines.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00696810
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  • 5
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    Do Emergent Constraints on Carbon Cycle Feedbacks Hold in CMIP6? (2022)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-21
    Description: Emergent constraints on carbon cycle feedbacks in response to warming and increasing atmospheric CO〈sub〉2 〈/sub〉 concentration have previously been identified in Earth system models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phase 5. Here, we examine whether two of these emergent constraints also hold for CMIP6. The spread of the sensitivity of tropical land carbon uptake to tropical warming in an idealized simulation with a 1% per year increase of atmospheric CO〈sub〉2 〈/sub〉 shows only a slight decrease in CMIP6 (−52 ± 35 GtC/K) compared to CMIP5 (−49 ± 40 GtC/K). For both model generations, the observed interannual variability in the growth rate of atmospheric CO〈sub〉2 〈/sub〉 yields a consistent emergent constraint on the sensitivity of tropical land carbon uptake with a constrained range of −37 ± 14 GtC/K for the combined ensemble (i.e., a reduction of ∼30% in the best estimate and 60% in the uncertainty range relative to the multimodel mean of the combined ensemble). A further emergent constraint is based on a relationship between CO〈sub〉2 〈/sub〉 fertilization and the historical increase in the CO〈sub〉2 〈/sub〉 seasonal cycle amplitude in high latitudes. However, this emergent constraint is not evident in CMIP6. This is in part because the historical increase in the amplitude of the CO〈sub〉2 〈/sub〉 seasonal cycle is more accurately simulated in CMIP6, such that the models are all now close to the observational constraint.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: The statistical model of so‐called emergent constraints help to better understand the sensitivity of Earth system processes in a changing climate. Here, we analyze the robustness of two previously found emergent constraints on carbon cycle feedbacks, using models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) of Phases 5 and 6. First the decrease of carbon storage in the tropics due to increasing near‐surface air temperatures, which is found to be robust on the choise of model ensemble. Giving a constraint estimate of −52 ± 35 GtC/K for CMIP6 models, being within the range of uncertainty for the previously estimated result for CMIP5. Second, the increase of carbon storage in high latitudes due to CO〈sub〉2 〈/sub〉 fertilization effect, which is found to be not evident among CMIP6 models. This is in part because the historical increase in the amplitude of the CO〈sub〉2 〈/sub〉 seasonal cycle is more accurately simulated in CMIP6, such that the models are all now close to the observational constraint.
    Description: Key Points: An emergent constraint on the sensitivity of tropical land carbon to global warming, originally derived from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), also holds for CMIP6. The combined CMIP5 + CMIP6 ensemble gives an emergent constraint on the sensitivity of tropical land carbon to global warming of −37 ± 14 GtC/K. An emergent constraint on the fertilization feedback due to rising CO〈sub〉2 〈/sub〉 levels, previously derived, is not evident in CMIP6.
    Description: Horizon 2020 Framework Programme http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100010661
    Description: ERC
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6900341
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3387139
    Description: https://github.com/ESMValGroup
    Description: https://docs.esmvaltool.org/
    Keywords: ddc:551 ; carbon cycle ; emergent constraint ; CMIP5 ; CMIP6 ; fertilization effect ; temperature warming
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:article
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    CITATION GEO-LEO
  • 6
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    Charcoal records of two sediment cores off SW Africa (2012)
    PANGAEA
    In:  Supplement to: Daniau, Anne-Laure; Bartlein, Patrick J; Harrison, S P; Prentice, Iain Colin; Brewer, Simon; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Harrison-Prentice, T I; Inoue, J; Izumi, K; Marlon, Jennifer R; Mooney, Scott D; Power, Mitchell J; Stevenson, J; Tinner, Willy; Andric, M; Atanassova, J; Behling, Hermann; Black, M; Blarquez, O; Brown, K J; Carcaillet, C; Colhoun, Eric A; Colombaroli, Daniele; Davis, Basil A S; D'Costa, D; Dodson, John; Dupont, Lydie M; Eshetu, Z; Gavin, D G; Genries, A; Haberle, Simon G; Hallett, D J; Hope, Geoffrey; Horn, S P; Kassa, T G; Katamura, F; Kennedy, L M; Kershaw, A Peter; Krivonogov, S; Long, C; Magri, Donatella; Marinova, E; McKenzie, G Merna; Moreno, P I; Moss, Patrick T; Neumann, F H; Norstrom, E; Paitre, C; Rius, D; Roberts, Neil; Robinson, G S; Sasaki, N; Scott, Louis; Takahara, H; Terwilliger, V; Thevenon, Florian; Turner, R; Valsecchi, V G; Vannière, Boris; Walsh, M; Williams, N; Zhang, Yancheng (2012): Predictability of biomass burning in response to climate changes. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 26(4), https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GB004249
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-01-13
    Description: We analyze sedimentary charcoal records to show that the changes in fire regime over the past 21,000 yrs are predictable from changes in regional climates. Analyses of paleo- fire data show that fire increases monotonically with changes in temperature and peaks at intermediate moisture levels, and that temperature is quantitatively the most important driver of changes in biomass burning over the past 21,000 yrs. Given that a similar relationship between climate drivers and fire emerges from analyses of the interannual variability in biomass burning shown by remote-sensing observations of month-by-month burnt area between 1996 and 2008, our results signal a serious cause for concern in the face of continuing global warming.
    Keywords: Center for Marine Environmental Sciences; MARUM
    Type: Dataset
    Format: application/zip, 2 datasets
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    DATA PANGAEA
  • 7
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    Estimated future permafrost maps constrained by observed relationships, with link to model result files in NetCDF format (2017)
    PANGAEA
    In:  Supplement to: Chadburn, Sarah; Burke, Eleanor J; Cox, Peter; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hugelius, Gustaf; Westermann, Sebastian (2017): An observation-based constraint on permafrost loss as a function of global warming. Nature Climate Change, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3262
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-01-27
    Description: A globally applicable relationship between air temperature and permafrost areal fraction was derived using reanalysis air temperatures and the historical IPA permafrost map. This relationship defines a maximum, minimum and mean permafrost fraction at a given air temperature. Future air temperatures were estimated for a particular global mean warming, using the observed Arctic amplification and a pattern-scaling approach with the 1986-2005 mean air temperatures as the baseline. Here we show the estimated permafrost map, using our method, from the time of the IPA map ('historical' = 1960-1990), along with the estimated future permafrost maps using pattern-scaled air temperatures, for a range of global stabilisation temperatures (between 1 and 6 degree C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900)). For each global mean air temperature there is a maximum, minimum and mean permafrost extent according to our permafrost-air temperature relationships. The file naming is as follows: map_〈deg〉〈type〉.nc, where 〈deg〉 is degrees of warming above pre-industrial climate, and 〈type〉 is one of max, min, or mean, indicating maximum, minimum or mean permafrost extent. The maps are global at 0.5 degree resolution.
    Type: Dataset
    Format: application/zip, 4.1 MBytes
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    DATA PANGAEA
  • 8
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    Global Carbon Budget 2018 (2018)
    Copernicus Publications (EGU)
    In:  Earth System Science Data, 10 (4). pp. 2141-2194.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-02-08
    Description: Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land use and land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2008–2017), EFF was 9.4±0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC 1.5±0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.7±0.02 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.4±0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.2±0.8 GtC yr−1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.5 GtC yr−1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For the year 2017 alone, the growth in EFF was about 1.6 % and emissions increased to 9.9±0.5 GtC yr−1. Also for 2017, ELUC was 1.4±0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM was 4.6±0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.5±0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.8±0.8 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 405.0±0.1 ppm averaged over 2017. For 2018, preliminary data for the first 6–9 months indicate a renewed growth in EFF of +2.7 % (range of 1.8 % to 3.7 %) based on national emission projections for China, the US, the EU, and India and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. The analysis presented here shows that the mean and trend in the five components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period of 1959–2017, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. A detailed comparison among individual estimates and the introduction of a broad range of observations show (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land-use change emissions, (2) a persistent low agreement among the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent underestimation of the CO2 variability by ocean models, originating outside the tropics. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2018, 2016, 2015a, b, 2014, 2013)
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    DOI: 10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018
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  • 9
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    Global Carbon Budget 2017 (2018)
    Copernicus Publications (EGU)
    In:  Earth System Science Data, 10 (1). pp. 405-448.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-02-08
    Description: Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the "global carbon budget" – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land-cover change data and bookkeeping models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2007–2016), EFF was 9.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.7 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.6 GtC yr−1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For year 2016 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1. Also for 2016, ELUC was 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM was 6.1 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 2.7 ± 1.0 GtC yr−1, with a small BIM of −0.3 GtC. GATM continued to be higher in 2016 compared to the past decade (2007–2016), reflecting in part the high fossil emissions and the small SLAND consistent with El Niño conditions. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 402.8 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2016. For 2017, preliminary data for the first 6–9 months indicate a renewed growth in EFF of +2.0 % (range of 0.8 to 3.0 %) based on national emissions projections for China, USA, and India, and projections of gross domestic product (GDP) corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). All results presented here can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2017 (GCP, 2017).
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    DOI: 10.5194/essd-10-405-2018
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 10
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    Anthropogenic perturbation of the carbon fluxes from land to ocean (2013)
    Nature Publishing Group
    In:  Nature Geoscience, 6 (8). pp. 597-607.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-09-23
    Description: A substantial amount of the atmospheric carbon taken up on land through photosynthesis and chemical weathering is transported laterally along the aquatic continuum from upland terrestrial ecosystems to the ocean. So far, global carbon budget estimates have implicitly assumed that the transformation and lateral transport of carbon along this aquatic continuum has remained unchanged since pre-industrial times. A synthesis of published work reveals the magnitude of present-day lateral carbon fluxes from land to ocean, and the extent to which human activities have altered these fluxes. We show that anthropogenic perturbation may have increased the flux of carbon to inland waters by as much as 1.0 Pg C yr−1 since pre-industrial times, mainly owing to enhanced carbon export from soils. Most of this additional carbon input to upstream rivers is either emitted back to the atmosphere as carbon dioxide (~0.4 Pg C yr−1) or sequestered in sediments (~0.5 Pg C yr−1) along the continuum of freshwater bodies, estuaries and coastal waters, leaving only a perturbation carbon input of ~0.1 Pg C yr−1 to the open ocean. According to our analysis, terrestrial ecosystems store ~0.9 Pg C yr−1 at present, which is in agreement with results from forest inventories but significantly differs from the figure of 1.5 Pg C yr−1 previously estimated when ignoring changes in lateral carbon fluxes. We suggest that carbon fluxes along the land–ocean aquatic continuum need to be included in global carbon dioxide budgets.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: text
    Format: text
    DOI: 10.1038/ngeo1830
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