Description: The eruption of Mt. Tambora in 1815 was the largest volcanic eruption of the past 500 years. The eruption had significant climatic impacts, leading to the 1816 "year without a summer", and remains a valuable event from which to understand the climatic effects of large stratospheric volcanic sulfur dioxide injections. The eruption also resulted in one of the strongest and most easily identifiable volcanic sulfate signals in polar ice cores, which are widely used to reconstruct the timing and atmospheric sulfate loading of past eruptions. As part of the Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP), five state-of-the-art global aerosol models simulated this eruption. We analyse both simulated background (no Tambora) and volcanic (with Tambora) sulfate deposition to polar regions and compare to ice core records. The models simulate overall similar patterns of background sulfate deposition, al-though there are differences in regional details and magnitude. However, the volcanic sulfate deposition varies considerably between the models with differences in timing, spatial pattern and magnitude. Mean simulated deposited sulfate on Antarctica ranges from 19 to 264 kgkm-2 and on Greenland from 31 to 194 kgkm-2, as compared to the mean ice-corederived estimates of roughly 50 kgkm-2 for both Greenland and Antarctica. The ratio of the hemispheric atmospheric sulfate aerosol burden after the eruption to the average ice sheet deposited sulfate varies between models by up to a factor of 15. Sources of this inter-model variability include differences in both the formation and the transport of sulfate aerosol. Our results suggest that deriving relationships between sulfate deposited on ice sheets and atmospheric sulfate burdens from model simulations may be associated with greater uncertainties than previously thought.

Description: We describe the main differences in simulations of stratospheric climate and variability by models within the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) that have a model top above the stratopause and relatively fine stratospheric vertical resolution (high-top), and those that have a model top below the stratopause (low-top). Although the simulation of mean stratospheric climate by the two model ensembles is similar, the low-top model ensemble has very weak stratospheric variability on daily and interannual time scales. The frequency of major sudden stratospheric warming events is strongly underestimated by the low-top models with less than half the frequency of events observed in the reanalysis data and high-top models. The lack of stratospheric variability in the low-top models affects their stratosphere-troposphere coupling, resulting in short-lived anomalies in the Northern Annular Mode, which do not produce long-lasting tropospheric impacts, as seen in observations. The lack of stratospheric variability, however, does not appear to have any impact on the ability of the low-top models to reproduce past stratospheric temperature trends. We find little improvement in the simulation of decadal variability for the high-top models compared to the low-top, which is likely related to the fact that neither ensemble produces a realistic dynamical response to volcanic eruptions

Description: Climatologies of atmospheric observations are often produced by binning measurements according to latitude, and calculating zonal means. The uncertainty in these climatological means is characterized by the standard error of the mean (SEM). However, the usual estimator of the SEM, i.e. the sample standard deviation divided by the square root of the sample size, holds only for uncorrelated randomly sampled measurements. Measurements of the atmospheric state along a satellite orbit cannot always be considered as independent because (a) the time-space interval between two nearest observations is often smaller than the typical scale of variations in the atmospheric state, and (b) the regular time-space sampling pattern of a satellite instrument strongly deviates from random sampling. We have developed an experiment where global chemical fields from a chemistry climate model are sampled according to real sampling patterns of satellite-borne instruments. As case studies, sampling patterns of the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) and Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier-Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) satellite instruments are used to iteratively subsample the model O3 fields and produce empirical estimates of the standard error of monthly mean zonal mean model O3 in 5° latitude bins. We find that generally the classic SEM estimator is a conservative estimate of the SEM, i.e. the empirical SEM is often less than the classic estimate. Exceptions occur in instances where the zonal sampling distribution shows non-uniformity with a similar zonal structure as variations in the sampled field, leading to maximum sensitivity to arbitrary phase shifts between the sample distribution and sampled field. The occurrence of such instances is thus very sensitive to slight changes in the sampling distribution, and to the variations in the measured field. This study highlights the need for caution in the interpretation of the oft-used classically computed SEM, and outlines a relatively simple methodology that can be used to assess one component of the uncertainty in monthly mean zonal mean climatologies produced from measurements from satellite-borne instruments

Description: Reconstructions of the atmospheric sulfate aerosol burdens resulting from past volcanic eruptions are based on ice core-derived estimates of volcanic sulfate deposition and the assumption that the two quantities are directly proportional. We test this assumption within simulations of tropical volcanic stratospheric sulfur injections with the MAECHAM5-HAM aerosol-climate model. An ensemble of 70 simulations is analyzed, with SO2 injections ranging from 8.5 to 700 Tg, with eruptions in January and July. Modeled sulfate deposition flux to Antarctica shows excellent spatial correlation with ice core-derived estimates for Pinatubo and Tambora, although the comparison suggests the modeled flux to the ice sheets is 4–5 times too large. We find that Greenland and Antarctic deposition efficiencies (the ratio of sulfate flux to each ice sheet to the maximum hemispheric stratospheric sulfate aerosol burden) vary as a function of the magnitude and season of stratospheric sulfur injection. Changes in simulated sulfate deposition for large SO2 injections are connected to increases in aerosol particle size, which impact aerosol sedimentation velocity and radiative properties, the latter leading to strong dynamical changes including strengthening of the winter polar vortices, which inhibits the transport of stratospheric aerosols to high latitudes. The resulting relationship between Antarctic and Greenland volcanic sulfate deposition is nonlinear for very large eruptions, with significantly less sulfate deposition to Antarctica than to Greenland. These model results suggest that variability of deposition efficiency may be an important consideration in the interpretation of ice core sulfate signals for eruptions of Tambora-magnitude and larger.

Description: Observations and simple theoretical arguments suggest that the Northern Hemisphere (NH) stratospheric polar vortex is stronger in winters following major volcanic eruptions. However, recent studies show that climate models forced by prescribed volcanic aerosol fields fail to reproduce this effect. We investigate the impact of volcanic aerosol forcing on stratospheric dynamics, including the strength of the NH polar vortex, in ensemble simulations with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model. The model is forced by four different prescribed forcing sets representing the radiative properties of stratospheric aerosol following the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo: two forcing sets are based on observations, and are commonly used in climate model simulations, and two forcing sets are constructed based on coupled aerosol–climate model simulations. For all forcings, we find that simulated temperature and zonal wind anomalies in the NH high latitudes are not directly impacted by anomalous volcanic aerosol heating. Instead, high-latitude effects result from enhancements in stratospheric residual circulation, which in turn result, at least in part, from enhanced stratospheric wave activity. High-latitude effects are therefore much less robust than would be expected if they were the direct result of aerosol heating. Both observation-based forcing sets result in insignificant changes in vortex strength. For the model-based forcing sets, the vortex response is found to be sensitive to the structure of the forcing, with one forcing set leading to significant strengthening of the polar vortex in rough agreement with observation-based expectations. Differences in the dynamical response to the forcing sets imply that reproducing the polar vortex responses to past eruptions, or predicting the response to future eruptions, depends on accurate representation of the space–time structure of the volcanic aerosol forcing.

Description: A comprehensive quality assessment of the ozone products from 18 limb-viewing satellite instruments is provided by means of a detailed inter-comparison. The ozone climatologies in the form of monthly zonal mean time series covering the upper troposphere to lower mesosphere are obtained from LIMS, SAGE I, SAGE II, UARS-MLS, HALOE, POAM II, POAM III, SMR, OSIRIS, SAGE III, MIPAS, GOMOS, SCIAMACHY, ACE-FTS, ACE-MAESTRO, Aura-MLS, HIRDLS, and SMILES within 1978-2010. The inter-comparisons focus on mean biases based on monthly and annual zonal mean fields, on inter-annual variability and on seasonal cycles. Additionally, the physical consistency of the data sets is tested through diagnostics of the quasi-biennial oscillation and the Antarctic ozone hole. The comprehensive evaluations reveal that the uncertainty in our knowledge of the atmospheric ozone mean state is smallest in the tropical middle stratosphere and in the midlatitude lower/middle stratosphere, where we find a 1σ multi-instrument spread of less than ±5%. While the overall agreement among the climatological data sets is very good for large parts of the stratosphere, individual discrepancies have been identified including unrealistic month-to-month fluctuations, large biases in particular atmospheric regions, or inconsistencies in the seasonal cycle. Notable differences between the data sets exist in the tropical lower stratosphere and at high latitudes, with a multi-instrument spread of ±30% at the tropical tropopause and ±15% at polar latitudes. In particular, large relative differences are identified in the Antarctic polar cap during the time of the ozone hole, with a spread between the monthly zonal mean fields of ±50%. Differences between the climatological data sets are suggested to be partially related to inter-instrumental differences in vertical resolution and geographical sampling. The evaluations as a whole provide guidance on what data sets are the most reliable for applications such as studies of ozone variability, model-measurement comparisons and detection of long-term trends. A detailed comparison versus SAGE II data is presented, which can help identify suitable candidates for long-term data merging studies.

Description: We present the first comprehensive intercomparison of currently available satellite ozone climatologies in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UTLS) (300-70hPa) as part of the Stratosphere-troposphere Processes and their Role in Climate (SPARC) Data Initiative. The Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) instrument is the only nadir-viewing instrument in this initiative, as well as the only instrument with a focus on tropospheric composition. We apply the TES observational operator to ozone climatologies from the more highly vertically resolved limb-viewing instruments. This minimizes the impact of differences in vertical resolution among the instruments and allows identification of systematic differences in the large-scale structure and variability of UTLS ozone. We find that the climatologies from most of the limb-viewing instruments show positive differences (ranging from 5 to 75%) with respect to TES in the tropical UTLS, and comparison to a zonal mean ozonesonde climatology indicates that these differences likely represent a positive bias for p100hPa. In the extratropics, there is good agreement among the climatologies regarding the timing and magnitude of the ozone seasonal cycle (differences in the peak-to-peak amplitude of 〈15%) when the TES observational operator is applied, as well as very consistent midlatitude interannual variability. The discrepancies in ozone temporal variability are larger in the tropics, with differences between the data sets of up to 55% in the seasonal cycle amplitude. However, the differences among the climatologies are everywhere much smaller than the range produced by current chemistry-climate models, indicating that the multiple-instrument ensemble is useful for quantitatively evaluating these models.

Description: Using an Earth System Model, we investigate the potential Southern Hemisphere (SH) climate response to an extremely large volcanic eruption. The volcanic radiative forcing is calculated offline with a global aerosol model taken into account the formation and development of the volcanic aerosol size distribution from an initial stratospheric injection of 700 Mt SO2 corresponding to that estimated for the VEI〉7 volcanic eruption of Los Chocoyos in Guatemala 84 ka BP. Due to the extremely large volcanic radiative forcing, the surface cools over almost the entire SH. A significant positive phase of the Southern Annual Mode (SAM), persisting for at least 12 months, characterizes the simulated posteruption SH atmospheric circulation. Significant changes of surface temperature, precipitation and wind fields result from a distinct increase in magnitude and poleward movement in position of the SH westerlies. This is associated with temporary modifications in the upper ocean circulation in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current region. Due to the propagation of the forced anomalies into the deep ocean layers, the anomalous oceanic state persists well beyond the atmospheric response timescale. Significant negative temperature anomalies in the SH ocean propagate down to ~2000 m during the first ~20-50 post-eruption years, and persist for the entire simulated 200 years. A multicentennial anomaly in the SH ocean heat content represents the longest lived volcanically-forced signal detectable in the simulated climate.

Description: aerosol microphysics are used to assess the influence of season of eruption on the aerosol evolution and radiative impacts at the Earth's surface (Toohey et al., 2011). This analysis is presented for eruptions with SO2 injection magnitudes of 17 and 700 Tg, the former consistent with estimates of the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption, the later with estimates of the Los Chocoyos eruption of 84 ka BP from modern-day Guatemala. For each eruption magnitude, simulations are performed with eruptions at the location of the Los Chocoyos eruption site (15° N, 91° W) at four equally spaced times of year. Sensitivity to eruption season of aerosol optical depth (AOD), clear-sky and all-sky shortwave (SW) radiative flux is quantified based on the difference between the maximum and minimum response from the four eruption seasons. Eruption season has a significant influence on AOD and clear-sky SW radiative flux anomalies for both eruption magnitudes, reaching maximum values of ~75 %. All-sky SW anomalies are found to be sensitive to season of eruption for the Los Chocoyos eruption magnitude, but insensitive to season of eruption for the Pinatubo-magnitude eruption experiment. Our estimates of sensitivity to eruption season are larger than previously reported estimates: implications regarding volcanic AOD timeseries reconstructions and their use in climate models are discussed.