Description: We reanalyze existing paleodata of global mean surface temperature ΔTg and radiative forcing ΔR of CO2 and land ice albedo for the last 800,000 years to show that a state‐dependency in paleoclimate sensitivity S, as previously suggested, is only found if ΔTg is based on reconstructions, and not when ΔTg is based on model simulations. Furthermore, during times of decreasing obliquity (periods of land‐ice sheet growth and sea level fall) the multi‐millennial component of reconstructed ΔTg diverges from CO2, while in simulations both variables vary more synchronously, suggesting that the differences during these times are due to relatively low rates of simulated land ice growth and associated cooling. To produce a reconstruction‐based extrapolation of S for the future we exclude intervals with strong ΔTg‐CO2 divergence and find that S is less state‐dependent, or even constant (state‐independent), yielding a mean equilibrium warming of 2–4 K for a doubling of CO2.

Description: Using transient climate forcing based on simulations from the Alfred Wegener Institute Earth System Model (AWI-ESM), we simulate the evolution of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) from the last interglacial (125 ka, kiloyear before present) to 2100 AD with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM). The impact of paleoclimate, especially Holocene climate, on the present and future evolution of the GrIS is explored. Our simulations of the past show close agreement with reconstructions with respect to the recent timing of the peaks in ice volume and the climate of Greenland. The maximum and minimum ice volume at around 18–17 ka and 6–5 ka lag the respective extremes in climate by several thousand years, implying that the ice volume response of the GrIS strongly lags climatic changes. Given that Greenland’s climate was getting colder from the Holocene Thermal Maximum (i.e., 8 ka) to the Pre-Industrial era, our simulation implies that the GrIS experienced growth from the mid-Holocene to the industrial era. Due to this background trend, the GrIS still gains mass until the second half of the 20th century, even though anthropogenic warming begins around 1850 AD. This is also in agreement with observational evidence showing mass loss of the GrIS does not begin earlier than the late 20th century. Our results highlight that the present evolution of the GrIS is not only controlled by the recent climate changes, but is also affected by paleoclimate, especially the relatively warm Holocene climate. We propose that the GrIS was not in equilibrium throughout the entire Holocene and that the slow response to Holocene climate needs to be represented in ice sheet simulations in order to predict ice mass loss, and therefore sea level rise, accurately.

Description: Abstract Deglacial transitions of the middle to late Pleistocene (terminations) are linked to gradual changes in insolation accompanied by abrupt shifts in ocean circulation. However, the reason these deglacial abrupt events are so special compared with their sub-glacial-maximum analogues, in particular with respect to the exaggerated warming observed across Antarctica, remains unclear. Here we show that an increase in the relative importance of salt versus temperature stratification in the glacial deep South Atlantic decreases the potential cooling effect of waters that may be upwelled in response to abrupt perturbations in ocean circulation, as compared with sub-glacial-maximum conditions. Using a comprehensive coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model, we then demonstrate that an increase in deep-ocean salinity stratification stabilizes relatively warm waters in the glacial deep ocean, which amplifies the high southern latitude surface ocean temperature response to an abrupt weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during deglaciation. The mechanism can produce a doubling in the net rate of warming across Antarctica on a multicentennial timescale when starting from full glacial conditions (as compared with interglacial or subglacial conditions) and therefore helps to explain the large magnitude and rapidity of glacial terminations during the late Quaternary.

Description: Geological evidence indicates large continental‐scale Antarctic ice volume variations during the early and mid‐Miocene. On million‐year timescales, these variations can largely be explained by equilibrium Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) simulations. In contrast, on shorter orbital timescales, the AIS needs not be in equilibrium with the forcing and ice volume variations may be substantially different. Here, we introduce a conceptual model, based on ice dynamical model results, to investigate the difference between transient variability and equilibrium differences of the Miocene AIS. In our model, an ice sheet will grow (shrink) by a specific rate when it is smaller (larger) than its equilibrium size. We show that phases of concurrent ice volume increase and rising CO2 levels are possible, even though the equilibrium ice volume decreases monotonically with CO2. When the AIS volume is out of equilibrium with the forcing climate, the ice sheet can still be adapting to a relatively large equilibrium size, although CO2 is rising after a phase of decrease. A delayed response of Antarctic ice volume to (covarying) solar insolation and CO2 concentrations can cause discrepancies between Miocene solar insolation and benthic δ18O variability. Increasing forcing frequency leads to a larger disequilibrium and consequently larger CO2‐ice volume phase differences. Furthermore, an amplified forcing amplitude causes larger amplitude ice volume variability, because the growth and decay rates depend on the forcing. It also leads to a reduced average ice volume, resulting from the growth rates generally being smaller than the decay rates.

Description: Over the last decade, our understanding of cli- mate sensitivity has improved considerably. The climate system shows variability on many timescales, is subject to non-stationary forcing and it is most likely out of equi- librium with the changes in the radiative forcing. Slow and fast feedbacks complicate the interpretation of geolog- ical records as feedback strengths vary over time. In the geological past, the forcing timescales were different than at present, suggesting that the response may have behaved differently. Do these insights constrain the climate sensitiv- ity relevant for the present day? In this paper, we review the progress made in theoretical understanding of climate sensitivity and on the estimation of climate sensitivity from proxy records. Particular focus lies on the background state dependence of feedback processes and on the impact of tipping points on the climate system. We suggest how to further use palaeo data to advance our understanding of the currently ongoing climate change.

Description: The evidence from both data and models indicates that specific equilibrium climate sensitivity S[X]—the global annual mean surface temperature change (ΔTg) as a response to a change in radiative forcing X (ΔR[X])—is state dependent. Such a state dependency implies that the best fit in the scatterplot of ΔTg versus ΔR[X] is not a linear regression but can be some nonlinear or even nonsmooth function. While for the conventional linear case the slope (gradient) of the regression is correctly interpreted as the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity S[X], the interpretation is not straightforward in the nonlinear case. We here explain how such a state-dependent scatterplot needs to be interpreted and provide a theoretical understanding—or generalization—how to quantify S[X] in the nonlinear case. Finally, from data covering the last 2.1 Myr we show that—due to state dependency—the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity which considers radiative forcing of CO2 and land ice sheet (LI) albedo, math formula, is larger during interglacial states than during glacial conditions by more than a factor 2.

Description: We reanalyze existing paleodata of global mean surface temperature ΔTg and radiative forcing ΔR of CO2 and land ice albedo for the last 800,000 years to show that a state‐dependency in paleoclimate sensitivity S, as previously suggested, is only found if ΔTg is based on reconstructions, and not when ΔTg is based on model simulations. Furthermore, during times of decreasing obliquity (periods of land ice sheet growth and sea level fall) the multimillennial component of reconstructed ΔTg diverges from CO2, while in simulations both variables vary more synchronously, suggesting that the differences during these times are due to relatively low rates of simulated land ice growth and associated cooling. To produce a reconstruction‐based extrapolation of S for the future, we exclude intervals with strong ΔTg‐CO2 divergence and find that S is less state‐dependent, or even constant state‐independent), yielding a mean equilibrium warming of 2–4 K for a doubling of CO2.

Description: Since the inception of the Antarctic ice sheet at the Eocene–Oligocene transition (∼ 34 Myr ago), land ice has played a crucial role in Earth's climate. Through feedbacks in the climate system, land ice variability modifies atmospheric temperature changes induced by orbital, topographical, and greenhouse gas variations. Quantification of these feedbacks on long timescales has hitherto scarcely been undertaken. In this study, we use a zonally averaged energy balance climate model bidirectionally coupled to a one-dimensional ice sheet model, capturing the ice–albedo and surface–height–temperature feedbacks. Potentially important transient changes in topographic boundary conditions by tectonics and erosion are not taken into account but are briefly discussed. The relative simplicity of the coupled model allows us to perform integrations over the past 38 Myr in a fully transient fashion using a benthic oxygen isotope record as forcing to inversely simulate CO2. Firstly, we find that the results of the simulations over the past 5 Myr are dependent on whether the model run is started at 5 or 38 Myr ago. This is because the relation between CO2 and temperature is subject to hysteresis. When the climate cools from very high CO2 levels, as in the longer transient 38 Myr run, temperatures in the lower CO2 range of the past 5 Myr are higher than when the climate is initialised at low temperatures. Consequently, the modelled CO2 concentrations depend on the initial state. Taking the realistic warm initialisation into account, we come to a best estimate of CO2, temperature, ice-volume-equivalent sea level, and benthic δ18O over the past 38 Myr. Secondly, we study the influence of ice sheets on the evolution of global temperature and polar amplification by comparing runs with ice sheet–climate interaction switched on and off. By passing only albedo or surface height changes to the climate model, we can distinguish the separate effects of the ice–albedo and surface–height–temperature feedbacks. We find that ice volume variability has a strong enhancing effect on atmospheric temperature changes, particularly in the regions where the ice sheets are located. As a result, polar amplification in the Northern Hemisphere decreases towards warmer climates as there is little land ice left to melt. Conversely, decay of the Antarctic ice sheet increases polar amplification in the Southern Hemisphere in the high-CO2 regime. Our results also show that in cooler climates than the pre-industrial, the ice–albedo feedback predominates the surface–height–temperature feedback, while in warmer climates they are more equal in strength.

Description: Deglacial transitions of the middle to late Pleistocene (terminations) are linked to gradual changes in insolation accompanied by abrupt shifts in ocean circulation. However, the reason these deglacial abrupt events are so special compared with their sub-glacial-maximum analogues, in particular with respect to the exaggerated warming observed across Antarctica, remains unclear. Here we show that an increase in the relative importance of salt versus temperature stratification in the glacial deep South Atlantic decreases the potential cooling effect of waters that may be upwelled in response to abrupt perturbations in ocean circulation, as compared with sub-glacial-maximum conditions. Using a comprehensive coupled atmosphere–ocean gen-eral circulation model, we then demonstrate that an increase in deep-ocean salinity stratification stabilizes relatively warm waters in the glacial deep ocean, which amplifies the high southern latitude surface ocean temperature response to an abrupt weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during deglaciation. The mechanism can produce a doubling in the net rate of warming across Antarctica on a multicentennial timescale when starting from full glacial conditions (as compared with interglacial or subglacial conditions) and therefore helps to explain the large magnitude and rapidity of glacial termina-tions during the late Quaternary.