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  • 1
    Keywords: Forschungsbericht ; Pleistozän ; Paläoklima ; Modell ; Simulation ; Meer ; Kohlenstoffkreislauf
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (17 Seiten, 234,62 KB)
    Language: German
    Note: Paralleltitel dem englischen Berichtsblatt entnommen , Förderkennzeichen BMBF 01LP1505A-G , Verbundnummer 01161825 , Unterschiede zwischen dem gedruckten Dokument und der elektronischen Ressource können nicht ausgeschlossen werden , Sprache der Zusammenfassung: Deutsch, Englisch
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  • 2
    ISSN: 1476-4687
    Source: Nature Archives 1869 - 2009
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Notes: [Auszug] In the context of gradual Cenozoic cooling, the timing of the onset of significant Northern Hemisphere glaciation 2.7 million years ago is consistent with Milankovitch's orbital theory, which posited that ice sheets grow when polar summertime insolation and temperature are low. However, the ...
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 3
    ISSN: 1476-4687
    Source: Nature Archives 1869 - 2009
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Notes: [Auszug] Many palaeoclimate records from the North Atlantic region show a pattern of rapid climate oscillations, the so-called Dansgaard–Oeschger events, with a quasi-periodicity of ∼1,470 years for the late glacial period. Various hypotheses have been suggested to explain these rapid ...
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 4
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    [s.l.] : Macmillian Magazines Ltd.
    Nature 409 (2001), S. 153-158 
    ISSN: 1476-4687
    Source: Nature Archives 1869 - 2009
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Notes: [Auszug] Abrupt changes in climate, termed Dansgaard–Oeschger and Heinrich events, have punctuated the last glacial period (∼100–10 kyr ago) but not the Holocene (the past 10 kyr). Here we use an intermediate-complexity climate model to investigate the stability of glacial ...
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 5
    ISSN: 1476-4687
    Source: Nature Archives 1869 - 2009
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Notes: [Auszug] A global coupled ocean–atmosphere model of intermediate complexity is used to simulate the equilibrium climate of both today and the Last Glacial Maximum, around 21,000 years ago. The model successfully predicts the atmospheric and oceanic circulations, temperature distribution, hydrological ...
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 6
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Climatic change 43 (1999), S. 353-367 
    ISSN: 1573-1480
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract We present global warming scenarios computed with an intermediate-complexity atmosphere-ocean-sea ice model which has been extensively validated for a range of past climates (e.g., the Last Glacial Maximum). Our simulations extend to the year 3000, beyond the expected peak of CO2 concentrations. The thermohaline ocean circulation declines strongly in all our scenarios over the next 50 years due to a thermal effect. Changes in the hydrological cycle determine whether the circulation recovers or collapses in the long run. Both outcomes are possible within present uncertainty limits. In case of a collapse, a substantial long-lasting cooling over the North Atlantic and a drying of Europe is simulated.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 7
    ISSN: 1573-1480
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract This paper describes a methodology that combines the outputs of (1) the Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE Version 1.0) of the Netherlands National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection (RIVM) (given a greenhouse gas emission policy, this model can estimate the effects such as global mean surface air temperature change for a wide variety of policies) and (2) ECHAM-1/LSG, the Global Circulation Model (GCM) of the Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany. The combination enables one to calculate grid point surface air temperature changes for different scenarios with a turnaround time that is much quicker than that for a GCM. The methodology is based upon a geographical pattern of the ratio of grid point temperature change to global mean values during a certain period of the simulation, as calculated by ECHAM-1/LSG for the 1990 Scenarios A and D of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). A procedure, based upon signal-to noise ratios in the outputs, enabled us to estimate where we have confidence in the methodology; this is at about 23% to 83% of the total of 2,048 grid points, depending upon the scenario and the decade in the simulation. It was found that the methodology enabled IMAGE to provide useful estimates of the GCM-predicted grid point temperature changes. These estimates were within 0.5K (0.25K) throughout the 100 years of a given simulation for at least 79% (74%) of the grid points where we are confident in applying the methodology. The temperature ratio pattern from Scenario A enabled IMAGE to provide useful estimates of temperature change within 0.5K (0.25K) in Scenario D for at least 88% (68%) of the grid points where we have confidence; indicating that the methodology is transferable to other scenarios. Tests with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory GCM indicated, however, that a temperature ratio pattern may have to be developed for each GCM. The methodology, using a temperature ratio pattern from the 1990 IPCC Scenario A and involving IMAGE, gave gridded surface air temperature patterns for the 1992 IPCC radiative-forcing Scenarios C and E and the RIVM emission Scenario B; none of these scenarios has been simulated by ECHAM-1/LSG. The simulations reflect the uncertainty range of a future warming.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 8
    ISSN: 1573-2967
    Keywords: climate modelling ; climate system ; system analysis ; climate system modelling ; Earth system modelling
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract We present a new reduced-form model for climate system analysis. This model, called CLIMBER-2 (for CLIMate and BiosphERe, level 2), fills the current gap between simple, highly parameterized climate models and computationally expensive coupled models of global atmospheric and oceanic circulation. We outline the basic assumptions implicit in CLIMBER-2 and we present examples of climate system analysis including a study of atmosphere–ocean interaction during the last glacial maximum, an analysis of synergism between various components of the climate system during the mid-Holocene around 6000 years ago, and a transient simulation of climate change during the last 8000 years. These studies demonstrate the feasibility of a computationally efficient analysis of climate system dynamics which is a prerequisite for future climate impact research and, more generally, Earth system analysis, i.e., the analysis of feedbacks between our environment and human activities.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2020-02-06
    Description: Establishing whether past millennial-scale climate change affected the stability of marine methane hydrate is important for our understanding of climatic change and determining the fate of marine hydrates in a future warmer world. We show, using three-dimensional seismic data offshore of Mauritania, that episodic, millennial-scale shifts of the base of the hydrate stability zone can be imaged below the ocean floor. Process modeling suggests that the base of the hydrate stability zone should have shallowed and deepened in response to climate change over the past ∼150,000 yr. Specifically, there is seismic evidence for millennial-scale shifts during the Holocene (∼11,700 yr ago to present) at a temporal resolution that has previously been unrealized. This is the first evidence that millennial-scale climatic cycles caused hydrate formation and dissociation and that hydrate instability should be expected in a warming world.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2020-02-06
    Description: In spite of significant progress in paleoclimate reconstructions and modelling of different aspects of the past glacial cycles, the mechanisms which transform regional and seasonal variations in solar insolation into long-term and global-scale glacial–interglacial cycles are still not fully understood – in particular, in relation to CO2 variability. Here using the Earth system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-2 we performed simulations of the co-evolution of climate, ice sheets, and carbon cycle over the last 400000 years using the orbital forcing as the only external forcing. The model simulates temporal dynamics of CO2, global ice volume, and other climate system characteristics in good agreement with paleoclimate reconstructions. These results provide strong support for the idea that long and strongly asymmetric glacial cycles of the late Quaternary represent a direct but strongly nonlinear response of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets to orbital forcing. This response is strongly amplified and globalised by the carbon cycle feedbacks. Using simulations performed with the model in different configurations, we also analyse the role of individual processes and sensitivity to the choice of model parameters. While many features of simulated glacial cycles are rather robust, some details of CO2 evolution, especially during glacial terminations, are sensitive to the choice of model parameters. Specifically, we found two major regimes of CO2 changes during terminations: in the first one, when the recovery of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) occurs only at the end of the termination, a pronounced overshoot in CO2 concentration occurs at the beginning of the interglacial and CO2 remains almost constant during the interglacial or even declines towards the end, resembling Eemian CO2 dynamics. However, if the recovery of the AMOC occurs in the middle of the glacial termination, CO2 concentration continues to rise during the interglacial, similar to the Holocene. We also discuss the potential contribution of the brine rejection mechanism for the CO2 and carbon isotopes in the atmosphere and the ocean during the past glacial termination.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
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