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  • 1
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    Seasonal and interannual oxygen variability on the Washington and Oregon continental shelves (2015)
    John Wiley & Sons
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 120 (2015): 608–633, doi:10.1002/2014JC010254.
    Description: The coastal waters of the northern portion of the California Current System experience a seasonal decline in oxygen concentrations and hypoxia over the summer upwelling season that results in negative impacts on habitat for many organisms. Using a regional model extending from 43°N to 50°N, with an oxygen component developed in this study, drivers of seasonal and regional oxygen variability are identified. The model includes two pools of detritus, which was an essential addition in order to achieve good agreement with the observations. The model was validated using an extensive array of hydrographic and moored observations. The model captures the observed seasonal decline as well as spatial trends in bottom oxygen. Spatially, three regions of high respiration are identified as locations where hypoxia develops each modeled year. Two of the regions are previously identified recirculation regions. The third region is off of the Washington coast. Sediment oxygen demand causes the region on the Washington coast to be susceptible to hypoxia and is correlated to the broad area of shallow shelf (〈60 m) in the region. Respiration and circulation-driven divergence contribute similar (60, 40%, respectively) amounts to the integrated oxygen budget on the Washington coast while respiration dominates the Oregon coast. Divergence, or circulation, contributes to the oxygen dynamics on the shelf in two ways: first, through the generation of retention features, and second, by determining variability.
    Description: This work was supported by a postdoctoral fellowship to Samantha Siedlecki from JISAO and the Program on Climate Change at the University of Washington, and grants from the Coastal Ocean Program of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) (NA09NOS4780180) and the National Science Foundation (NSF) (OCE0942675) as part of the Pacific Northwest Toxins (PNWTOX) project.
    Description: 2015-08-05
    Keywords: Hypoxia ; Oxygen ; Respiration ; Upwelling
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 2
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    Seasonal-to-interannual prediction of North American coastal marine ecosystems: forecast methods, mechanisms of predictability, and priority developments (2020)
    Elsevier
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: © The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Jacox, M. G., Alexander, M. A., Siedlecki, S., Chen, K., Kwon, Y., Brodie, S., Ortiz, I., Tommasi, D., Widlansky, M. J., Barrie, D., Capotondi, A., Cheng, W., Di Lorenzo, E., Edwards, C., Fiechter, J., Fratantoni, P., Hazen, E. L., Hermann, A. J., Kumar, A., Miller, A. J., Pirhalla, D., Buil, M. P., Ray, S., Sheridan, S. C., Subramanian, A., Thompson, P., Thorne, L., Annamalai, H., Aydin, K., Bograd, S. J., Griffis, R. B., Kearney, K., Kim, H., Mariotti, A., Merrifield, M., & Rykaczewski, R. Seasonal-to-interannual prediction of North American coastal marine ecosystems: forecast methods, mechanisms of predictability, and priority developments. Progress in Oceanography, 183, (2020): 102307, doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2020.102307.
    Description: Marine ecosystem forecasting is an area of active research and rapid development. Promise has been shown for skillful prediction of physical, biogeochemical, and ecological variables on a range of timescales, suggesting potential for forecasts to aid in the management of living marine resources and coastal communities. However, the mechanisms underlying forecast skill in marine ecosystems are often poorly understood, and many forecasts, especially for biological variables, rely on empirical statistical relationships developed from historical observations. Here, we review statistical and dynamical marine ecosystem forecasting methods and highlight examples of their application along U.S. coastlines for seasonal-to-interannual (1–24 month) prediction of properties ranging from coastal sea level to marine top predator distributions. We then describe known mechanisms governing marine ecosystem predictability and how they have been used in forecasts to date. These mechanisms include physical atmospheric and oceanic processes, biogeochemical and ecological responses to physical forcing, and intrinsic characteristics of species themselves. In reviewing the state of the knowledge on forecasting techniques and mechanisms underlying marine ecosystem predictability, we aim to facilitate forecast development and uptake by (i) identifying methods and processes that can be exploited for development of skillful regional forecasts, (ii) informing priorities for forecast development and verification, and (iii) improving understanding of conditional forecast skill (i.e., a priori knowledge of whether a forecast is likely to be skillful). While we focus primarily on coastal marine ecosystems surrounding North America (and the U.S. in particular), we detail forecast methods, physical and biological mechanisms, and priority developments that are globally relevant.
    Description: This study was supported by the NOAA Climate Program Office’s Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) program through grants NA17OAR4310108, NA17OAR4310112, NA17OAR4310111, NA17OAR4310110, NA17OAR4310109, NA17OAR4310104, NA17OAR4310106, and NA17OAR4310113. This paper is a product of the NOAA/MAPP Marine Prediction Task Force.
    Keywords: Prediction ; Predictability ; Forecast ; Ecological forecast ; Mechanism ; Seasonal ; Interannual ; Large marine ecosystem
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 3
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    Observational needs supporting marine ecosystems modeling and forecasting: from the global ocean to regional and coastal systems (2019)
    Frontiers Media
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2019. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Capotondi, A., Jacox, M., Bowler, C., Kavanaugh, M., Lehodey, P., Barrie, D., Brodie, S., Chaffron, S., Cheng, W., Dias, D. F., Eveillard, D., Guidi, L., Iudicone, D., Lovenduski, N. S., Nye, J. A., Ortiz, I., Pirhalla, D., Buil, M. P., Saba, V., Sheridan, S., Siedlecki, S., Subramanian, A., de Vargas, C., Di Lorenzo, E., Doney, S. C., Hermann, A. J., Joyce, T., Merrifield, M., Miller, A. J., Not, F., & Pesant, S. Observational needs supporting marine ecosystems modeling and forecasting: from the global ocean to regional and coastal systems. Frontiers in Marine Science, 6, (2019): 623, doi:10.3389/fmars.2019.00623.
    Description: Many coastal areas host rich marine ecosystems and are also centers of economic activities, including fishing, shipping and recreation. Due to the socioeconomic and ecological importance of these areas, predicting relevant indicators of the ecosystem state on sub-seasonal to interannual timescales is gaining increasing attention. Depending on the application, forecasts may be sought for variables and indicators spanning physics (e.g., sea level, temperature, currents), chemistry (e.g., nutrients, oxygen, pH), and biology (from viruses to top predators). Many components of the marine ecosystem are known to be influenced by leading modes of climate variability, which provide a physical basis for predictability. However, prediction capabilities remain limited by the lack of a clear understanding of the physical and biological processes involved, as well as by insufficient observations for forecast initialization and verification. The situation is further complicated by the influence of climate change on ocean conditions along coastal areas, including sea level rise, increased stratification, and shoaling of oxygen minimum zones. Observations are thus vital to all aspects of marine forecasting: statistical and/or dynamical model development, forecast initialization, and forecast validation, each of which has different observational requirements, which may be also specific to the study region. Here, we use examples from United States (U.S.) coastal applications to identify and describe the key requirements for an observational network that is needed to facilitate improved process understanding, as well as for sustaining operational ecosystem forecasting. We also describe new holistic observational approaches, e.g., approaches based on acoustics, inspired by Tara Oceans or by landscape ecology, which have the potential to support and expand ecosystem modeling and forecasting activities by bridging global and local observations.
    Description: This study was supported by the NOAA’s Climate Program Office’s Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) Program through grants NA17OAR4310106, NA17OAR4310104, NA17OAR4310108, NA17OAR4310109, NA17OAR4310110, NA17OAR4310111, NA17OAR4310112, and NA17OAR4310113. This manuscript is a product of the NOAA/MAPP Marine Prediction Task Force. The Tara Oceans consortium acknowledges support from the CNRS Research Federation FR2022 Global Ocean Systems Ecology and Evolution, and OCEANOMICS (grant agreement ‘Investissement d’Avenir’ ANR-11-BTBR-0008). This is article number 95 of the Tara Oceans consortium. MK and SD acknowledge support from NASA grant NNX14AP62A “National Marine Sanctuaries as Sentinel Sites for a Demonstration Marine Biodiversity Observation Network (MBON)” funded under the National Ocean Partnership Program (NOPP RFP NOAA-NOS-IOOS-2014-2003803 in partnership between NOAA, BOEM, and NASA), and the NOAA Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) Program Office. WC, IO, and AH acknowledge partial support from the Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO) under NOAA Cooperative Agreement NA15OAR4320063, Contribution No. 2019-1029. This study received support from the European H2020 International Cooperation project MESOPP (Mesopelagic Southern Ocean Prey and Predators), grant agreement no. 692173.
    Keywords: Marine ecosystems ; Modeling and forecasting ; Seascapes ; Genetics ; Acoustics
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 4
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    A science plan for carbon cycle research in North American coastal waters. Report of the Coastal CARbon Synthesis (CCARS) community workshop, August 19-21, 2014 (2016)
    Ocean Carbon & Biogeochemistry Program
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Workshop held August 19-21, 2014, Woods Hole, MA
    Description: Relative to their surface area, continental margins represent some of the largest carbon fluxes in the global ocean, but sparse and sporadic sampling in space and time makes these systems difficult to characterize and quantify. Recognizing the importance of continental margins to the overall North American carbon budget, terrestrial and marine carbon cycle scientists have been collaborating on a series of synthesis, carbon budgeting, and modeling exercises for coastal regions of North America, which include the Gulf of Mexico, the Laurentian Great Lakes (LGL), and the coastal waters of the Atlantic, Pacific, and Arctic Oceans. The Coastal CARbon Synthesis (CCARS) workshops and research activities have been conducted over the past several years as a partner activity between the Ocean Carbon and Biogeochemistry (OCB) Program and the North American Carbon Program (NACP) to synthesize existing data and improve quantitative assessments of the North American carbon budget.
    Description: The authors of this science plan wish to acknowledge the generous support of NASA (NNX10AU78G) and NSF (OCE-1107285) for all of the CCARS activities, including a kickoff meeting (December 2010), a series of regional workshops (Atlantic coast, Gulf of Mexico, Pacific coast), and the final community workshop (August 2014).
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Working Paper
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  • 5
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    Carbon cycling in the North American coastal ocean: a synthesis (2019)
    European Geosciences Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2019. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in WHOI Fennel, K., Alin, S., Barbero, L., Evans, W., Bourgeois, T., Cooley, S., Dunne, J., Feely, R. A., Martin Hernandez-Ayon, J., Hu, X., Lohrenz, S., Muller-Karger, F., Najjar, R., Robbins, L., Shadwick, E., Siedlecki, S., Steiner, N., Sutton, A., Turk, D., Vlahos, P., & Wang, Z. A. Carbon cycling in the north american coastal ocean: A synthesis. Biogeosciences, 16(6), (2019):1281-1304, doi:10.5194/bg-16-1281-2019.
    Description: A quantification of carbon fluxes in the coastal ocean and across its boundaries with the atmosphere, land, and the open ocean is important for assessing the current state and projecting future trends in ocean carbon uptake and coastal ocean acidification, but this is currently a missing component of global carbon budgeting. This synthesis reviews recent progress in characterizing these carbon fluxes for the North American coastal ocean. Several observing networks and high-resolution regional models are now available. Recent efforts have focused primarily on quantifying the net air–sea exchange of carbon dioxide (CO2). Some studies have estimated other key fluxes, such as the exchange of organic and inorganic carbon between shelves and the open ocean. Available estimates of air–sea CO2 flux, informed by more than a decade of observations, indicate that the North American Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) acts as a sink of 160±80 Tg C yr−1, although this flux is not well constrained. The Arctic and sub-Arctic, mid-latitude Atlantic, and mid-latitude Pacific portions of the EEZ account for 104, 62, and −3.7 Tg C yr−1, respectively, while making up 51 %, 25 %, and 24 % of the total area, respectively. Combining the net uptake of 160±80 Tg C yr−1 with an estimated carbon input from land of 106±30 Tg C yr−1 minus an estimated burial of 65±55 Tg C yr−1 and an estimated accumulation of dissolved carbon in EEZ waters of 50±25 Tg C yr−1 implies a carbon export of 151±105 Tg C yr−1 to the open ocean. The increasing concentration of inorganic carbon in coastal and open-ocean waters leads to ocean acidification. As a result, conditions favoring the dissolution of calcium carbonate occur regularly in subsurface coastal waters in the Arctic, which are naturally prone to low pH, and the North Pacific, where upwelling of deep, carbon-rich waters has intensified. Expanded monitoring and extension of existing model capabilities are required to provide more reliable coastal carbon budgets, projections of future states of the coastal ocean, and quantification of anthropogenic carbon contributions.
    Description: This paper builds on synthesis activities carried out for the second State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR2). We would like to thank Gyami Shrestha, Nancy Cavallero, Melanie Mayes, Holly Haun, Marjy Friedrichs, Laura Lorenzoni, and Erica Ombres for the guidance and input. We are grateful to Nicolas Gruber and Christophe Rabouille for their constructive and helpful reviews of the paper. It is a contribution to the Marine Biodiversity Observation Network (MBON), the Integrated Marine Biosphere Research (IMBeR) project, the International Ocean Carbon Coordination Project (IOCCP), and the Cooperative Institute of the University of Miami and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (CIMAS) under cooperative agreement NA10OAR4320143. Katja Fennel was funded by the NSERC Discovery program. Steven Lohrenz was funded by NASA grant NNX14AO73G. Ray Najjar was funded by NASA grant NNX14AM37G. Frank Muller-Karger was funded through NASA grant NNX14AP62A. This is Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory contribution number 4837 and Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory contribution number 8284. Simone Alin and Richard A. Feely also thank Libby Jewett and Dwight Gledhill of the NOAA Ocean Acidification Program for their support.
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 6
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    Mechanism for export of sediment-derived iron in an upwelling regime (2012)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2012. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 39 (2012): L03601, doi:10.1029/2011GL050366.
    Description: Model simulations performed with a three-dimensional, high-resolution, process study ocean model of eastern boundary upwelling systems are used to describe a mechanism that efficiently transports sediment-derived dissolved iron offshore in the subsurface through the bottom boundary layer (BBL) during downwelling-favorable wind events. In the model, sediment-derived iron accumulates in the BBL on the outer shelf when the winds are upwelling-favorable. When the wind reverses, the iron-laden BBL is mixed into the water column and transported offshore along isopycnals that intersect the bottom. Depending on the frequency of wind reversal, between 10–50% of the shelf sediment-derived iron flux is exported offshore through this previously unidentified subsurface pathway. If this mechanism operates on all coastal upwelling regimes, the global export of sediment-derived iron to the open ocean would be equivalent to ten times larger than the estimated source of dissolved iron from aerosols.
    Description: NSF supported this work.
    Description: 2012-08-11
    Keywords: Coastal oceanography ; Iron export ; Upwelling
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
    Format: text/plain
    Format: application/pdf
    Format: application/msword
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  • 7
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    Projecting ocean acidification impacts for the Gulf of Maine to 2050: new tools and expectations (2021)
    University of California Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-27
    Description: © The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Siedlecki, S. A., Salisbury, J., Gledhill, D. K., Bastidas, C., Meseck, S., McGarry, K., Hunt, C. W., Alexander, M., Lavoie, D., Wang, Z. A., Scott, J., Brady, D. C., Mlsna, I., Azetsu-Scott, K., Liberti, C. M., Melrose, D. C., White, M. M., Pershing, A., Vandemark, D., Townsend, D. W., Chen, C,. Mook, W., Morrison, R. Projecting ocean acidification impacts for the Gulf of Maine to 2050: new tools and expectations. Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene, 9(1), (2021): 00062, https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.2020.00062.
    Description: Ocean acidification (OA) is increasing predictably in the global ocean as rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide lead to higher oceanic concentrations of inorganic carbon. The Gulf of Maine (GOM) is a seasonally varying region of confluence for many processes that further affect the carbonate system including freshwater influences and high productivity, particularly near the coast where local processes impart a strong influence. Two main regions within the GOM currently experience carbonate conditions that are suboptimal for many organisms—the nearshore and subsurface deep shelf. OA trends over the past 15 years have been masked in the GOM by recent warming and changes to the regional circulation that locally supply more Gulf Stream waters. The region is home to many commercially important shellfish that are vulnerable to OA conditions, as well as to the human populations whose dependence on shellfish species in the fishery has continued to increase over the past decade. Through a review of the sensitivity of the regional marine ecosystem inhabitants, we identified a critical threshold of 1.5 for the aragonite saturation state (Ωa). A combination of regional high-resolution simulations that include coastal processes were used to project OA conditions for the GOM into 2050. By 2050, the Ωa declines everywhere in the GOM with most pronounced impacts near the coast, in subsurface waters, and associated with freshening. Under the RCP 8.5 projected climate scenario, the entire GOM will experience conditions below the critical Ωa threshold of 1.5 for most of the year by 2050. Despite these declines, the projected warming in the GOM imparts a partial compensatory effect to Ωa by elevating saturation states considerably above what would result from acidification alone and preserving some important fisheries locations, including much of Georges Bank, above the critical threshold.
    Description: This research was financially supported by the Major Special Projects of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China (2016YFC020600), the Young Scholars Science Foundation of Lanzhou Jiaotong University (2018033), and the Talent Innovation and Entrepreneurship Projects of Lanzhou (2018-RC-84).
    Keywords: PM2.5 ; Contamination characteristics ; Meteorological factors ; Metal source analysis ; Lanzhou
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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