Publication Date:
2021-02-17
Description:
Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH4) budget is important for assessing realistic
pathways to mitigate climate change. Atmospheric emissions and concentrations of CH4 continue to increase,
making CH4 the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing, after
carbon dioxide (CO2). The relative importance of CH4 compared to CO2 depends on its shorter atmospheric
lifetime, stronger warming potential, and variations in atmospheric growth rate over the past decade, the causes
of which are still debated. Two major challenges in reducing uncertainties in the atmospheric growth rate arise
from the variety of geographically overlapping CH4 sources and from the destruction of CH4 by short-lived
hydroxyl radicals (OH). To address these challenges, we have established a consortium of multidisciplinary
scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate new research aimed at
improving and regularly updating the global methane budget. Following Saunois et al. (2016), we present here
the second version of the living review paper dedicated to the decadal methane budget, integrating results of
top-down studies (atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottomup
estimates (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry,
inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven extrapolations).
For the 2008–2017 decade, global methane emissions are estimated by atmospheric inversions (a top-down
approach) to be 576 TgCH4 yr1 (range 550–594, corresponding to the minimum and maximum estimates of the model ensemble). Of this total, 359 TgCH4 yr1 or 60% is attributed to anthropogenic sources, that is emissions caused by direct human activity (i.e. anthropogenic emissions; range 336–376 TgCH4 yr1 or 50 %–65 %).
The mean annual total emission for the new decade (2008–2017) is 29 TgCH4 yr1 larger than our estimate for
the previous decade (2000–2009), and 24 TgCH4 yr1 larger than the one reported in the previous budget for
2003–2012 (Saunois et al., 2016). Since 2012, global CH4 emissions have been tracking the warmest scenarios
assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Bottom-up methods suggest almost 30% larger
global emissions (737 TgCH4 yr1, range 594–881) than top-down inversion methods. Indeed, bottom-up estimates for natural sources such as natural wetlands, other inland water systems, and geological sources are
higher than top-down estimates. The atmospheric constraints on the top-down budget suggest that at least some of these bottom-up emissions are overestimated. The latitudinal distribution of atmospheric observation-based emissions indicates a predominance of tropical emissions ( 65% of the global budget, 〈30 N) compared to mid-latitudes ( 30 %, 30–60 N) and high northern latitudes ( 4 %, 60–90 N). The most important source of
uncertainty in the methane budget is attributable to natural emissions, especially those from wetlands and other
inland waters.
Some of our global source estimates are smaller than those in previously published budgets (Saunois et al.,
2016; Kirschke et al., 2013). In particular wetland emissions are about 35 TgCH4 yr1 lower due to improved
partition wetlands and other inland waters. Emissions from geological sources and wild animals are also found to
be smaller by 7 TgCH4 yr1 by 8 TgCH4 yr1, respectively. However, the overall discrepancy between bottom-up and top-down estimates has been reduced by only 5% compared to Saunois et al. (2016), due to a higher estimate of emissions from inland waters, highlighting the need for more detailed research on emissions factors. Priorities for improving the methane budget include (i) a global, high-resolution map of water-saturated soils and inundated areas emitting methane based on a robust classification of different types of emitting habitats; (ii) further development of process-based models for inland-water emissions; (iii) intensification of methane observations at local scales (e.g., FLUXNET-CH4 measurements) and urban-scale monitoring to constrain bottom-up land surface models, and at regional scales (surface networks and satellites) to constrain atmospheric inversions; (iv) improvements of transport models and the representation of photochemical sinks in top-down inversions; and (v) development of a 3D variational inversion system using isotopic and/or co-emitted species such as ethane to improve source partitioning.
Description:
Published
Description:
1561–1623
Description:
6A. Geochimica per l'ambiente e geologia medica
Description:
JCR Journal
Repository Name:
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
Type:
article
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