Description: A new global climate model setup using FESOM2.0 for the sea ice‐ocean component and ECHAM6.3 for the atmosphere and land surface has been developed. Replacing FESOM1.4 by FESOM2.0 promises a higher efficiency of the new climate setup compared to its predecessor. The new setup allows for long‐term climate integrations using a locally eddy‐resolving ocean. Here it is evaluated in terms of (1) the mean state and long‐term drift under preindustrial climate conditions, (2) the fidelity in simulating the historical warming, and (3) differences between coarse and eddy‐resolving ocean configurations. The results show that the realism of the new climate setup is overall within the range of existing models. In terms of oceanic temperatures, the historical warming signal is of smaller amplitude than the model drift in case of a relatively short spin‐up. However, it is argued that the strategy of “de‐drifting” climate runs after the short spin‐up, proposed by the HighResMIP protocol, allows one to isolate the warming signal. Moreover, the eddy‐permitting/resolving ocean setup shows notable improvements regarding the simulation of oceanic surface temperatures, in particular in the Southern Ocean.

Description: The Pliocene epoch has great potential to improve our understanding of the long-term climatic and environmental consequences of an atmospheric CO2 concentration near ∼400 parts per million by volume. Here we present the large-scale features of Pliocene climate as simulated by a new ensemble of climate models of varying complexity and spatial resolution based on new reconstructions of boundary conditions (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2; PlioMIP2). As a global annual average, modelled surface air temperatures increase by between 1.7 and 5.2 °C relative to the pre-industrial era with a multi-model mean value of 3.2 °C. Annual mean total precipitation rates increase by 7 % (range: 2 %–13 %). On average, surface air temperature (SAT) increases by 4.3 °C over land and 2.8 °C over the oceans. There is a clear pattern of polar amplification with warming polewards of 60°N and 60°S exceeding the global mean warming by a factor of 2.3. In the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, meridional temperature gradients are reduced, while tropical zonal gradients remain largely unchanged. There is a statistically significant relationship between a model's climate response associated with a doubling in CO2 (equilibrium climate sensitivity; ECS) and its simulated Pliocene surface temperature response. The mean ensemble Earth system response to a doubling of CO2 (including ice sheet feedbacks) is 67 % greater than ECS; this is larger than the increase of 47 % obtained from the PlioMIP1 ensemble. Proxy-derived estimates of Pliocene sea surface temperatures are used to assess model estimates of ECS and give an ECS range of 2.6–4.8°C. This result is in general accord with the ECS range presented by previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports.

Description: The modeling of paleoclimate, using physically based tools, is increasingly seen as a strong out-of-sample test of the models that are used for the projection of future climate changes. New to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) is the Tier 1 Last Interglacial experiment for 127 000 years ago (lig127k), designed to address the climate responses to stronger orbital forcing than the midHolocene experiment, using the same state-of-the-art models as for the future and following a common experimental protocol. Here we present a first analysis of a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, all of which have completed the CMIP6 DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima) experiments. The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of these models varies from 1.8 to 5.6 ∘C. The seasonal character of the insolation anomalies results in strong summer warming over the Northern Hemisphere continents in the lig127k ensemble as compared to the CMIP6 piControl and much-reduced minimum sea ice in the Arctic. The multi-model results indicate enhanced summer monsoonal precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere and reductions in the Southern Hemisphere. These responses are greater in the lig127k than the CMIP6 midHolocene simulations as expected from the larger insolation anomalies at 127 than 6 ka. New synthesis for surface temperature and precipitation, targeted for 127 ka, have been developed for comparison to the multi-model ensemble. The lig127k model ensemble and data reconstructions are in good agreement for summer temperature anomalies over Canada, Scandinavia, and the North Atlantic and for precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere continents. The model–data comparisons and mismatches point to further study of the sensitivity of the simulations to uncertainties in the boundary conditions and of the uncertainties and sparse coverage in current proxy reconstructions. The CMIP6–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) lig127k simulations, in combination with the proxy record, improve our confidence in future projections of monsoons, surface temperature, and Arctic sea ice, thus providing a key target for model evaluation and optimization.

Description: In the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2), coupled climate models have been used to simulate an interglacial climate during the mid-Piacenzian warm period (mPWP; 3.264 to 3.025 Ma). Here, we compare the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), poleward ocean heat transport and sea surface warming in the Atlantic simulated with these models. In PlioMIP2, all models simulate an intensified mid-Pliocene AMOC. However, there is no consistent response in the simulated Atlantic ocean heat transport nor in the depth of the Atlantic overturning cell. The models show a large spread in the simulated AMOC maximum, the Atlantic ocean heat transport and the surface warming in the North Atlantic. Although a few models simulate a surface warming of ∼ 8–12 ∘C in the North Atlantic, similar to the reconstruction from Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) version 4, most models appear to underestimate this warming. The large model spread and model–data discrepancies in the PlioMIP2 ensemble do not support the hypothesis that an intensification of the AMOC, together with an increase in northward ocean heat transport, is the dominant mechanism for the mid-Pliocene warm climate over the North Atlantic.

Description: There is an increasing need to understand the pre-Quaternary warm climates, how climate–vegetation interactions functioned in the past, and how we can use this information to understand the present. Here we report vegetation modelling results for the Late Miocene (11–7 Ma) to study the mechanisms of vegetation dynamics and the role of different forcing factors that influence the spatial patterns of vegetation coverage. One of the key uncertainties is the atmospheric concentration of CO2 during past climates. Estimates for the last 20 million years range from 280 to 500 ppm. We simulated Late Miocene vegetation using two plausible CO2 concentrations, 280 ppm CO2 and 450 ppm CO2, with a dynamic global vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) driven by climate input from a coupled AOGCM (Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model). The simulated vegetation was compared to existing plant fossil data for the whole Northern Hemisphere. For the comparison we developed a novel approach that uses information of the relative dominance of different plant functional types (PFTs) in the palaeobotanical data to provide a quantitative estimate of the agreement between the simulated and reconstructed vegetation. Based on this quantitative assessment we find that pre-industrial CO2 levels are largely consistent with the presence of seasonal temperate forests in Europe (suggested by fossil data) and open vegetation in North America (suggested by multiple lines of evidence). This suggests that during the Late Miocene the CO2 levels have been relatively low, or that other factors that are not included in the models maintained the seasonal temperate forests and open vegetation.

Description: The Middle Miocene (~17‒14 Myrs ago) climate is characterized by much warmer temperatures and an amplified hydrological cycle with respect to present-day climate. Though it is well known that a change in the global freshwater distribution via the hydrological cycle can impact climate and large scale ocean circulation, most modelling studies encompassing tectonic time scales rather focus on the sensitivity of the climate to orography, ocean gateways, land surface, ice-sheets, and CO2 changes. Alternatively, here we study the effect of two different kinds of hydrological discharge models and their respective boundary conditions, that are fully implemented in the earth system model COSMOS, on the climate of the Middle Miocene. The standard hydrological discharge model (HD) of COSMOS requires the information of high spatial resolution orography for the Middle Miocene that is conventionally tuned to present-day conditions, to calculate river routing following the steepest slope of the terrain. Instead, the flexible hydrological discharge model (FHD) calculates river routing by using Middle Miocene orography at identical grid resolution as the atmosphere model and additionally taking the dynamic topography of continental water levels into account. We find that the anomaly between a climate simulation of the Middle Miocene with COSMOS and HD versus a comparable simulation based on COSMOS and FHD reveals strong differences in the redistribution of freshwater in form of continental discharge from land to the ocean. As a consequence, deep water formation and large scale ocean circulation significantly differ between both model versions, emphasizing the importance of representing a realistic freshwater redistribution from land towards the ocean. We therefore conclude that a more realistic representation of climate states at tectonic time scales necessitates geological constraints on the freshwater redistribution, and changes in the freshwater redistribution may have had a profound impact on the history of global ocean circulation patterns over geological time scales.

Description: Central Asia is one of the largest arid regions in the world, however, multiple lakes have existed here since the Neogene. These lakes were able to sustain themselves despite the aridification trend in Asia through the PlioPleistocene. For example, long-term geological multiproxy records, including carbonate δ18O, from lake sediments of the Qaidam, Gaxun Nur, and Orog Nuur Basins indicate multiple changes in the hydrological cycle of the region with alternate phases of prevailing evaporation and precipitation. These changes are attributed either to Neogene global climate change or regional tectonic events. In this study, we use the isotope-equipped atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5-wiso for modeling of Asia climate evolution and associated changes in precipitation δ18O during key periods of the Neogene. High-resolution simulations (T159L31, ca. 0.8°x0.8° and 31 vertical levels, 6 hour output frequency) with Mid-Holocene, Pleistocene, Pliocene and Miocene boundary conditions allow us to estimate the contributions of global climate change into the hydrological budget over the Central Asia. We complement this work with a Lagrangian Trajectory analysis (wind back-trajectories) applied to the ECHAM5-wiso outputs to trace changes in the origin of precipitation-producing air masses. We show that in addition to precipitation amount variations associated with changes in large-scale atmosphere dynamics, considerable changes in moisture sources between the time slices considered contribute to the isotopic signature of precipitation within the Qaidam, Gaxun Nur, and Orog Nuur Basins. Finally, comparison of simulated δ18O results to wind backtrajectory analysis suggests that local process, such as moisture recycling, exert an increasing control for more recent time periods.

Description: Understanding the dynamics of warm climate states has gained increasing importance in the face of anthropogenic climate change. During the Last Interglacial (LIG, ∼128 to 116 ka), greenhouse gas concentrations and high latitude insolation were higher than pre-industrial levels, causing a high-latitude warming (Turney and Jones, 2010; Pfeiffer and Lohmann, 2016). We present a suite of climate model results (COSMOS, MPI-ESM, AWI-CM, EC-Earth) to evaluate the patterns and compare the simulations with the above-mentioned surface temperature reconstructions, seasonal archives (Felis et al., 2015; Brocas et al., 2017), and sea ice reconstructions (Stein et al., 2017). As a result of this modestly warmer climate, polar ice sheets were smaller and estimates report that the global mean sea level was 6-9 meters higher than today (Dutton et al., 2015). The sensitivity of the Antarctic Ice sheet is related to the local temperature around the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) (Sutter et al., 2016). Our ice sheet model experiments indicate that a 2-3°C local warming causes already a partially collapsed, irreversible WAIS. A pronounced subsurface oceanic warming can destabilize the WAIS, resulting in an oceanic gateway between the Ross and Weddell Seas. A sensitivity study using the new oceanic gateway between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans as a bathymetrical boundary condition indicates that this region would be covered by sea ice. Mixing due to sea-ice formation prevents a pronounced warming around the WAIS and would stabilize the WAIS. Thus, the disintegration of the WAIS is probably related to non-local influences like in Hellmer et al. (2017) where the shelves of West Antarctica are warmed from below by Circumpolar Deep Water.