Description: The Copenhagen Diagnosis is a summary of the global warming peer reviewed science since 2007. Produced by a team of 26 scientists led by the University of New South Wales Climate Research Centre, the Diagnosis convincingly proves that the effects of global warming have gotten worse in the last three years. It is a timely update to the UN’s Intercontinental Panel on Climate Change 2007 Fourth Assessment document (IPCC AR4). The report places the blame for the century long temperature increase on human factors and says the turning point ";must come soon";. If we are to limit warming to 2 degrees above pre-industrial values, global emissions must peak by 2020 at the latest and then decline rapidly. The scientists warned that waiting for higher levels of scientific certainty could mean that some tipping points will be crossed before they are recognized. By 2050 we will effectively need to be in a post-carbon economy if we are to avoid unlivable temperatures.

Description: Highlights • Archaeal community composition reflects locally specific environmental challenges • Biogeochemical properties do not predict archaeal community structure • Environmental history controls subseafloor archaeal populations Summary We explore archaeal distributions in sedimentary subseafloor habitats of Guaymas Basin and the adjacent Sonora Margin, located in the Gulf of California, México. Sampling locations include (1) control sediments without hydrothermal or seep influence, (2) Sonora Margin sediments underlying oxygen minimum zone water, (3) compacted, highly reduced sediments from a pressure ridge with numerous seeps at the base of the Sonora Margin, and (4) sediments impacted by hydrothermal circulation at the off-axis Ringvent site. Generally, archaeal communities largely comprise Bathyarchaeal lineages, members of the Hadesarchaea, MBG-D, TMEG, and ANME-1 groups. Variations in archaeal community composition reflect locally specific environmental challenges. Background sediments are divided into surface and subsurface niches. Overall, the environmental setting and history of a particular site, not isolated biogeochemical properties out of context, control the subseafloor archaeal communities in Guaymas Basin and Sonora Margin sediments.

Description: Over two million leisure boats use the coastal areas of the Baltic Sea for recreational purposes. The majority of these boats are painted with toxic antifouling paints that release biocides into the coastal ecosystems and negatively impact non-targeted species. Regulations concerning the use of antifouling paints differ dramatically between countries bordering the Baltic Sea and most of them lack the support of biological data. In the present study, we collected data on biofouling in 17 marinas along the Baltic Sea coast during three consecutive boating seasons (May–October 2014, 2015 and 2016). In this context, we compared different monitoring strategies and developed a fouling index (FI) to characterise marinas according to the recorded biofouling abundance and type (defined according to the hardness and strength of attachment to the substrate). Lower FI values, i.e. softer and/or less abundant biofouling, were consistently observed in marinas in the northern Baltic Sea. The decrease in FI from the south-western to the northern Baltic Sea was partially explained by the concomitant decrease in salinity. Nevertheless, most of the observed changes in biofouling seemed to be determined by local factors and inter-annual variability, which emphasizes the necessity for systematic monitoring of biofouling by end-users and/or authorities for the effective implementation of non-toxic antifouling alternatives in marinas. Based on the obtained results, we discuss how monitoring programs and other related measures can be used to support adaptive management strategies towards more sustainable antifouling practices in the Baltic Sea.

Description: Highlights • Active hydrothermal vent ecosystems are extremely rare. • Vent ecosystems are recognized as vulnerable by international organizations. • Mineral resources at active vents would not contribute significantly to the global metal supply. • Effective networks that protect representative active vents cannot be ensured. • A prohibition on mining active vents is consistent with obligations for conservation. Abstract There is increasing interest in mining minerals on the seabed, including seafloor massive sulfide deposits that form at hydrothermal vents. The International Seabed Authority is currently drafting a Mining Code, including environmental regulations, for polymetallic sulfides and other mineral exploitation on the seabed in the area beyond national jurisdictions. This paper summarizes 1) the ecological vulnerability of active vent ecosystems and aspects of this vulnerability that remain subject to conjecture, 2) evidence for limited mineral resource opportunity at active vents, 3) non-extractive values of active vent ecosystems, 4) precedents and international obligations for protection of hydrothermal vents, and 5) obligations of the International Seabed Authority under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea for protection of the marine environment from the impacts of mining. Heterogeneity of active vent ecosystems makes it extremely challenging to identify “representative” systems for any regional, area-based management approach to conservation. Protection of active vent ecosystems from mining impacts (direct and indirect) would set aside only a small fraction of the international seabed and its mineral resources, would contribute to international obligations for marine conservation, would have non-extractive benefits, and would be a precautionary approach.

Description: Coastal ecosystems provide a broad range of ecosystem services, which can be used to justify habitat conservation. The cultural ecosystem services of coastal ecosystems are generally underappreciated, and this is particularly the case when quantifying their scientific value. We created a tiered set of indicators to quantify scientific value spatially, and tested them using the case study of the island nation of Singapore. We conducted a systematic review of research papers, book chapters, conference reports and academic theses produced across 10 coastal ecosystems in Singapore, including mangroves, seagrasses, coral reefs, beaches and artificial coastal structures. At least 656 articles have been produced on Singapore’s coastal zone, with 2201 unique observations, showing that scientific value is spatially variable along Singapore’s coastline. Novel indicators such as the Site Impact Factor are able to differentiate scientific value between sites. This method has shed light on an under-recognised, but important cultural ecosystem service, and is applicable to other spatially-bounded coastal, marine and terrestrial landscapes.

Description: Rapid anthropogenic climate change is a major threat to ocean biodiversity, increasing the challenge for marine conservation. Strategic conservation planning, and more recently marine spatial planning (MSP) are among the most promising management tools to operationalize and enforce marine conservation. As yet, climate change is seldom incorporated into these plans, potentially curtailing the effectiveness of designated conservation areas under novel environmental conditions. Reliable assessment of current and future climate change threats requires the ability to map climate-driven eco-evolutionary changes and the identification of vulnerable and resistant populations. Here we explore the heretofore largely unrecognized value of information gained from physiological, ecological and evolutionary studies to MSP under ongoing climate change. For example, we explore how climate threats do not necessarily follow latitudinal gradients, such that both risk hotspots and refugia occur in mosaic distributions along species ranges - patterns that may be undetectable without knowledge of biological vulnerabilities at regional and local scales. Because co-occurring species can exhibit markedly different vulnerabilities to the same environmental changes, making ecological predictions requires, when possible, measuring the fundamental niches of key species (e.g., with the use of thermotolerance experiments). Forecasting also requires development of tools to identify the likelihood of community-level thresholds or tipping points (e.g., with the use of near-real world mesocosms), and assessment of the potential of populations for adaptation (e.g., with common garden experiments). Such research will facilitate better predictive models for the fate of populations, species, ecosystems and their functions. Ultimately, unfolding the complexity of the processes underlying climate change impacts will facilitate quantifying and reducing uncertainty in spatial planning decision processes and will enable the development of practical tools to validate adaptive conservation strategies.

Description: Highlights • Nd isotope records from the South Atlantic and Southern Ocean. • New Early Cretaceous general circulation model. • Opening history of gateways on the Falkland Plateau. • Gateway opening controlled organic carbon burial. Organic carbon burial is an important driver of carbon cycle and climate dynamics on geological and shorter time scales. Ocean basins emerging during the Early Cretaceous break-up of Gondwana were primary sites of organic carbon burial, implying that their tectonic and oceanographic evolution may have affected trends and perturbations in global climate via changes in local organic carbon burial. Assessing the role of individual ocean basins in the global carbon-climate context requires a sound understanding of the processes that induced large-scale changes in carbon burial and the timing of these changes. Here we reconstruct the oceanographic evolution, and its links to organic carbon burial, in the Barremian to Albian South Atlantic and Southern Ocean basins, which may have acted as carbon sinks of global importance. Our reconstruction is based on combined seawater neodymium isotope and sedimentological records obtained from multiple deep sea drill sites and a new general circulation model. Deep water circulation within and between those basins was primarily controlled by the opening of the shallow Falkland Plateau Gateway (between ∼118 Ma and ∼113 Ma) and the deep Georgia Basin Gateway (by ∼110 Ma), for which we provide new age constraints based on biostratigraphic and carbon isotope data. The opening of these gateways was accompanied by local to basin-wide decreases in organic carbon burial, suggesting that ocean circulation affected the oxygenation state via changes in deep water ventilation. Although our data do not provide quantitative information on the impact of changes in regional organic carbon burial on the global carbon cycle, the synchronicity between the reduction of organic carbon burial in the South Atlantic basin and global warming during the Early Albian points to a strong causal relationship.

Description: Highlights: • 1st global long-term fishery biomass trends evaluation of 1300 exploited marine populations. • Decline in average fishery biomass observed across oceans and climate zones. • Systemic wide-spread overfishing of the world's coastal and continental shelf water. Abstract: This contribution presents time series of the ‘fishery biomass’ of fish populations, defined as the weight (whole-body, wet weight) of the in-water part of a fishable population, i.e., that part of a population (also called ‘stock’) that is exposed to a certain fishing gear. Detailed data of this type are only available for a limited number of species that are targets of the fisheries in the waters of economically developed regions, such as Europe, the USA, Canada or Australia. However, similar fishery biomass assessments are generally lacking for developing countries, even for many of their most heavily fished species. Here, an estimation of the long-term fishery biomass trends of 1320 fish and invertebrate populations for 483 species exploited by fisheries in the 232 coastal Marine Ecoregions (MEs) around the world was undertaken. Fishery biomass trends were derived using the Bayesian CMSY stock assessment method applied to the global fisheries catch database for 1950–2014 as reconstructed by the Sea Around Us for every maritime fishing country in the world. Overall, the results suggest a consistent decline in the fishery biomass of exploited populations, in virtually all climatic zones and ocean basins in the world. The only zone with currently higher fishery biomass than in 1950 is the northern Pacific polar-boreal zone, likely due to environmental changes that occurred in the region positively affecting fish populations, combined with prudent management of the fisheries. For populations in MEs that are known to have highly questionable catch statistics, the results suggested smaller declines in fishery biomass than likely occurred in reality, implying that these results do not exaggerate declining trends in fishery biomass. This study used informative Bayesian priors to improve the trend analyses in areas where systematic stock assessments were conducted. The use of these independent assessments reduced the uncertainty associated with the findings of this study.

Description: Human-induced climate change such as ocean warming and acidification, threatens marine ecosystems and associated fisheries. In the Western Baltic cod stock socio-ecological links are particularly important, with many relying on cod for their livelihoods. A series of recent experiments revealed that cod populations are negatively affected by climate change, but an ecological-economic assessment of the combined effects, and advice on optimal adaptive management are still missing. For Western Baltic cod, the increase in larval mortality due to ocean acidification has experimentally been quantified. Time-series analysis allows calculating the temperature effect on recruitment. Here, we include both processes in a stock-recruitment relationship, which is part of an ecological-economic optimization model. The goal was to quantify the effects of climate change on the triple bottom line (ecological, economic, social) of the Western Baltic cod fishery. Ocean warming has an overall negative effect on cod recruitment in the Baltic. Optimal management would react by lowering fishing mortality with increasing temperature, to create a buffer against climate change impacts. The negative effects cannot be fully compensated, but even at 3 °C warming above the 2014 level, a reduced but viable fishery would be possible. However, when accounting for combined effects of ocean warming and acidification, even optimal fisheries management cannot adapt to changes beyond a warming of +1.5° above the current level. Our results highlight the need for multi-factorial climate change research, in order to provide the best available, most realistic, and precautionary advice for conservation of exploited species as well as their connected socio-economic systems.

Description: Highlights: • A High Resolution-LOPC and a FlowCAM were evaluated for ballast water monitoring. • Both instruments underestimated density compared to microscopy. • Size measurements can be affected by organism orientation and complex morphology. • Both tools might be particularly useful when working with a known community. Abstract: Many commercial ships will soon begin to use treatment systems to manage their ballast water and reduce the global transfer of harmful aquatic organisms and pathogens in accordance with upcoming International Maritime Organization regulations. As a result, rapid and accurate automated methods will be needed to monitoring compliance of ships' ballast water. We examined two automated particle counters for monitoring organisms ≥ 50 μm in minimum dimension: a High Resolution Laser Optical Plankton Counter (HR-LOPC), and a Flow Cytometer with digital imaging Microscope (FlowCAM), in comparison to traditional (manual) microscopy considering plankton concentration, size frequency distributions and particle size measurements. The automated tools tended to underestimate particle concentration compared to standard microscopy, but gave similar results in terms of relative abundance of individual taxa. For most taxa, particle size measurements generated by FlowCAM ABD (Area Based Diameter) were more similar to microscope measurements than were those by FlowCAM ESD (Equivalent Spherical Diameter), though there was a mismatch in size estimates for some organisms between the FlowCAM ABD and microscope due to orientation and complex morphology. When a single problematic taxon is very abundant, the resulting size frequency distribution curves can become skewed, as was observed with Asterionella in this study. In particular, special consideration is needed when utilizing automated tools to analyse samples containing colonial species. Re-analysis of the size frequency distributions with the removal of Asterionella from FlowCAM and microscope data resulted in more similar curves across methods with FlowCAM ABD having the best fit compared to the microscope, although microscope concentration estimates were still significantly higher than estimates from the other methods. The results of our study indicate that both automated tools can generate frequency distributions of particles that might be particularly useful if correction factors can be developed for known differences in well-studied aquatic ecosystems.