Description: Exploiting the complementary character of CryoSat-2 and Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity satellite sea ice thickness products, daily Arctic sea ice thickness estimates from October 2010 to December 2016 are generated by an Arctic regional ice-ocean model with satellite thickness assimilated. The assimilation is performed by a Local Error Subspace Transform Kalman filter coded in the Parallel Data Assimilation Framework. The new estimates can be generally thought of as combined model and satellite thickness (CMST). It combines the skill of satellite thickness assimilation in the freezing season with the model skill in the melting season, when neither CryoSat-2 nor Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity sea ice thickness is available. Comparisons with in situ observations from the Beaufort Gyre Exploration Project, Ice Mass Balance Buoys, and the NASA Operation IceBridge demonstrate that CMST reproduces most of the observed temporal and spatial variations. Results also show that CMST compares favorably to the Pan-Arctic Ice-Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System product and even appears to correct known thickness biases in the Pan-Arctic Ice-Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System. Due to imperfect parameterizations in the sea ice model and satellite thickness retrievals, CMST does not reproduce the heavily deformed and ridged sea ice along the northern coast of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and Greenland. With the new Arctic sea ice thickness estimates sea ice volume changes in recent years can be further assessed.

Description: The coupled atmosphere-ocean model AWI-CM has been augmented for ensemble data assimilation using the parallel data assimilation framework (PDAF). AWI-CM consists of the atmosphere model ECHAM6 and the unstructured grid finite element ocean model FESOM. PDAF provides the environment for ensemble forecasts and the ensemble filters for the assimilation. The work aims at strongly-coupled data assimilation, hence using cross-covariances between the atmosphere and ocean in the analysis step of the data assimilation process. As a first step oceanic observations are assimilated into the coupled model system in a setup of weakly coupled data assimilation and the effect one the coupled model state is assessed. We discuss the setup of the system, which is generic and hence also applicable for other coupled, but also uncoupled models. Further, challenges of the assimilation into the coupled system and initial results from strongly-coupled assimilation are discussed.

Description: Data assimilation combines observational information with numerical models taking into account the errors in both the observations and the model. In ensemble data assimilation the errors in the model state are dynamically estimated using an ensemble of model states. Data assimilation is used with coupled models to generate model fields to initialize model predictions, for computing a model state over time as a reanalysis, to optimize model parameters, and to assess model deficiencies. The coupled models simulate different compartments of the Earth system as well as their interactions. For example coupled atmosphere-ocean models like the AWI Climate Model (AWI-CM), simulate the physics in both compartments and fluxes in between then. Data assimilation is used with coupled models to generate model fields to initialize model predictions, for computing a model state over time as a reanalysis, to optimize model parameters, and to assess model deficiencies. Ensemble data assimilation methods can be applied with these model systems, but have a high high computing cost. To allow us to efficiently perform the data assimilation, the parallel data assimilation framework (PDAF) has been developed. I will discuss the application and challenges of coupled ensemble data assimilation on the examples of the data assimilative model system of AWI-CM coupled to PDAF and a coupled ocean-biogeochemical model consistent of the ocean circulation model MITgcm and the ecosystem model REcoM2.

Description: The Alfred Wegener Institute Climate Model (AWI‐CM) participates for the first time in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), CMIP6. The sea ice‐ocean component, FESOM, runs on an unstructured mesh with horizontal resolutions ranging from 8 to 80 km. FESOM is coupled to the Max Planck Institute atmospheric model ECHAM 6.3 at a horizontal resolution of about 100 km. Using objective performance indices, it is shown that AWI‐CM performs better than the average of CMIP5 models. AWI‐CM shows an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 3.2°C, which is similar to the CMIP5 average, and a transient climate response of 2.1°C which is slightly higher than the CMIP5 average. The negative trend of Arctic sea‐ice extent in September over the past 30 years is 20–30% weaker in our simulations compared to observations. With the strongest emission scenario, the AMOC decreases by 25% until the end of the century which is less than the CMIP5 average of 40%. Patterns and even magnitude of simulated temperature and precipitation changes at the end of this century compared to present‐day climate under the strong emission scenario SSP585 are similar to the multi‐model CMIP5 mean. The simulations show a 11°C warming north of the Barents Sea and around 2°C to 3°C over most parts of the ocean as well as a wetting of the Arctic, subpolar, tropical, and Southern Ocean. Furthermore, in the northern middle latitudes in boreal summer and autumn as well as in the southern middle latitudes, a more zonal atmospheric flow is projected throughout the year.

Description: We discuss how to build an ensemble data assimilation system using a direct connection between a coupled Earth system model (ESM) and the ensemble data assimilation software PDAF (Parallel Data Assimilation Framework, http://pdaf.awi.de). The direct connection results in a data assimilation program with high flexibility, efficiency, and parallel scalability. For this we augment the source code of the coupled model by data assimilation routines and hence create an online-coupled assimilative model. This first modifies the coupled model to be able to simulate an ensemble. Using a combination of in-memory access and parallel communication with the Message Passing Interface (MPI) standard we can further add the analysis step of ensemble-based assimilation methods. Thus the assimilation of observations is computed without the need to stop and restart the whole coupled model system. Instead, the analysis step is performed in between time steps and is independent of the actual model coupler that couples the different model compartments. This strategy to build the assimilation system allows us to perform both weakly coupled (in-compartment) and strongly coupled (cross-compartment) assimilation. The assimilation frequency can be kept flexible, so that the assimilation of observations from different compartments of the ESM can be performed at different intervals. Further, the reading and writing of disk files is minimized. The resulting assimilative model can be run in the same way as the regular ESM, but with additional parameters controlling the assimilation and with a higher number of processors to simulate the ensemble. Using the example of the coupled climate model AWI-CM that contains the FESOM model for the ocean and sea ice and ECHAM6 for the atmosphere, both coupled through the OASIS-MCT coupler, we discuss the features of the online assimilation coupling strategy and the performance of the resulting assimilative model.

Description: Data assimilation integrates information from observational measurements with numerical models. When used with coupled models of Earth system compartments, e.g., the atmosphere and the ocean, consistent joint states can be estimated. A common approach for data assimilation is ensemble-based methods which utilize an ensemble of state realizations to estimate the state and its uncertainty. These methods are far more costly to compute than a single coupled model because of the required integration of the ensemble. However, with uncoupled models, the ensemble methods also have been shown to exhibit a particularly good scaling behavior. This study discusses an approach to augment a coupled model with data assimilation functionality provided by the Parallel Data Assimilation Framework (PDAF). Using only minimal changes in the codes of the different compartment models, a particularly efficient data assimilation system is generated that utilizes parallelization and in-memory data transfers between the models and the data assimilation functions and hence avoids most of the file reading and writing, as well as model restarts during the data assimilation process. This study explains the required modifications to the programs with the example of the coupled atmosphere–sea-ice–ocean model AWI-CM (AWI Climate Model). Using the case of the assimilation of oceanic observations shows that the data assimilation leads only to small overheads in computing time of about 15 % compared to the model without data assimilation and a very good parallel scalability. The model-agnostic structure of the assimilation software ensures a separation of concerns in which the development of data assimilation methods can be separated from the model application.

Description: A new global climate model setup using FESOM2.0 for the sea ice‐ocean component and ECHAM6.3 for the atmosphere and land surface has been developed. Replacing FESOM1.4 by FESOM2.0 promises a higher efficiency of the new climate setup compared to its predecessor. The new setup allows for long‐term climate integrations using a locally eddy‐resolving ocean. Here it is evaluated in terms of (1) the mean state and long‐term drift under preindustrial climate conditions, (2) the fidelity in simulating the historical warming, and (3) differences between coarse and eddy‐resolving ocean configurations. The results show that the realism of the new climate setup is overall within the range of existing models. In terms of oceanic temperatures, the historical warming signal is of smaller amplitude than the model drift in case of a relatively short spin‐up. However, it is argued that the strategy of “de‐drifting” climate runs after the short spin‐up, proposed by the HighResMIP protocol, allows one to isolate the warming signal. Moreover, the eddy‐permitting/resolving ocean setup shows notable improvements regarding the simulation of oceanic surface temperatures, in particular in the Southern Ocean.