Description: Accurate estimates of past global mean surface temperature (GMST) help to contextualise future climate change and are required to estimate the sensitivity of the climate system to CO2 forcing through Earth's history. Previous GMST estimates for the latest Paleocene and early Eocene (∼57 to 48 million years ago) span a wide range (∼9 to 23 ∘C higher than pre-industrial) and prevent an accurate assessment of climate sensitivity during this extreme greenhouse climate interval. Using the most recent data compilations, we employ a multi-method experimental framework to calculate GMST during the three DeepMIP target intervals: (1) the latest Paleocene (∼57 Ma), (2) the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM; 56 Ma), and (3) the early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO; 53.3 to 49.1 Ma). Using six different methodologies, we find that the average GMST estimate (66 % confidence) during the latest Paleocene, PETM, and EECO was 26.3 ∘C (22.3 to 28.3 ∘C), 31.6 ∘C (27.2 to 34.5 ∘C), and 27.0 ∘C (23.2 to 29.7 ∘C), respectively. GMST estimates from the EECO are ∼10 to 16 ∘C warmer than pre-industrial, higher than the estimate given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (9 to 14 ∘C higher than pre-industrial). Leveraging the large “signal” associated with these extreme warm climates, we combine estimates of GMST and CO2 from the latest Paleocene, PETM, and EECO to calculate gross estimates of the average climate sensitivity between the early Paleogene and today. We demonstrate that “bulk” equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS; 66 % confidence) during the latest Paleocene, PETM, and EECO is 4.5 ∘C (2.4 to 6.8 ∘C), 3.6 ∘C (2.3 to 4.7 ∘C), and 3.1 ∘C (1.8 to 4.4 ∘C) per doubling of CO2. These values are generally similar to those assessed by the IPCC (1.5 to 4.5 ∘C per doubling CO2) but appear incompatible with low ECS values (〈1.5 per doubling CO2).

Description: Black shale sediments from the Barremian to Aptian South Atlantic document intense and widespread burial of marine organic carbon during the initial stages of seafloor spreading between Africa and South America. The enhanced sequestration of atmospheric CO2 makes these young ocean basins potential drivers of the Early Cretaceous carbon cycle and climate perturbations. The opening of marine gateways between initially restricted basins and related circulation and ventilation changes are a commonly invoked explanation for the transient formation and disappearance of these regional carbon sinks. However, large uncertainties in paleogeographic reconstructions limit the interpretation of available paleoceanographic data and prevent any robust model-based quantifications of the proposed circulation and carbon burial changes. Here, we present a new approach to assess the principal controls on the Early Cretaceous South Atlantic and Southern Ocean circulation changes under full consideration of the uncertainties in available boundary conditions. Specifically, we use a large ensemble of 36 climate model experiments to simulate the Barremian to Albian progressive opening of the Falkland Plateau and Georgia Basin gateways with different configurations of the proto-Drake Passage, the Walvis Ridge, and atmospheric CO2 concentrations. The experiments are designed to complement available geochemical data across the regions and to test circulation scenarios derived from them. All simulations show increased evaporation and intermediate water formation at subtropical latitudes that drive a meridional overturning circulation whose vertical extent is determined by the sill depth of the Falkland Plateau. Densest water masses formed in the southern Angola Basin and potentially reached the deep Cape Basin as Walvis Ridge Overflow Water. Paleogeographic uncertainties are as important as the lack of precise knowledge of atmospheric CO2 levels for the simulated temperature and salinity spread in large parts of the South Atlantic. Overall temperature uncertainties are up to 15 °C and increase significantly with water depth. The ensemble approach reveals temporal changes in the relative importance of geographic and radiative forcings for the simulated oceanographic conditions and, importantly, nonlinear interactions between them. Progressive northward opening of the highly restricted Angola Basin increased the sensitivity of local overturning and upper ocean stratification to atmospheric CO2 concentrations due to large-scale changes in the hydrological cycle, while the chosen proto-Drake Passage depth is critical for the ocean dynamics and CO2 response in the southern South Atlantic. Finally, the simulated processes are integrated into a recent carbon burial framework to document the principal control of the regional gateway evolution on the progressive shift from the prevailing saline and oxygen-depleted subtropical water masses to the dominance of ventilated high-latitude deep waters.

Description: We present results from an ensemble of eight climate models, each of which has carried out simulations of the early Eocene climate optimum (EECO, ∼ 50 million years ago). These simulations have been carried out in the framework of the Deep-Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP; http://www.deepmip.org, last access: 10 January 2021); thus, all models have been configured with the same paleogeographic and vegetation boundary conditions. The results indicate that these non-CO2 boundary conditions contribute between 3 and 5 ∘C to Eocene warmth. Compared with results from previous studies, the DeepMIP simulations generally show a reduced spread of the global mean surface temperature response across the ensemble for a given atmospheric CO2 concentration as well as an increased climate sensitivity on average. An energy balance analysis of the model ensemble indicates that global mean warming in the Eocene compared with the preindustrial period mostly arises from decreases in emissivity due to the elevated CO2 concentration (and associated water vapour and long-wave cloud feedbacks), whereas the reduction in the Eocene in terms of the meridional temperature gradient is primarily due to emissivity and albedo changes owing to the non-CO2 boundary conditions (i.e. the removal of the Antarctic ice sheet and changes in vegetation). Three of the models (the Community Earth System Model, CESM; the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, GFDL, model; and the Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM) show results that are consistent with the proxies in terms of the global mean temperature, meridional SST gradient, and CO2, without prescribing changes to model parameters. In addition, many of the models agree well with the first-order spatial patterns in the SST proxies. However, at a more regional scale, the models lack skill. In particular, the modelled anomalies are substantially lower than those indicated by the proxies in the southwest Pacific; here, modelled continental surface air temperature anomalies are more consistent with surface air temperature proxies, implying a possible inconsistency between marine and terrestrial temperatures in either the proxies or models in this region. Our aim is that the documentation of the large-scale features and model–data comparison presented herein will pave the way to further studies that explore aspects of the model simulations in more detail, for example the ocean circulation, hydrological cycle, and modes of variability, and encourage sensitivity studies to aspects such as paleogeography, orbital configuration, and aerosols.

Description: Extensive black shale deposits formed in the Early Cretaceous South Atlantic, supporting the notion that this emerging ocean basin was a globally important site of organic carbon burial. The magnitude of organic carbon burial in marine basins is known to be controlled by various tectonic, oceanographic, hydrological, and climatic processes acting on different temporal and spatial scales, the nature and relative importance of which are poorly understood for the young South Atlantic. Here we present new bulk and molecular geochemical data from an Aptian–Albian sediment record recovered from the deep Cape Basin at Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) Site 361, which we combine with general circulation model results to identify driving mechanisms of organic carbon burial. A multimillion-year decrease (i.e., Early Aptian–Albian) in organic carbon burial, reflected in a lithological succession of black shale, gray shale, and red beds, was caused by increasing bottom water oxygenation due to abating hydrographic restriction via South Atlantic–Southern Ocean gateways. These results emphasize basin evolution and ocean gateway development as a decisive primary control on enhanced organic carbon preservation in the Cape Basin at geological timescales (〉 1 Myr). The Early Aptian black shale sequence comprises alternations of shales with high (〉 6 %) and relatively low (∼ 3.5 %) organic carbon content of marine sources, the former being deposited during the global Oceanic Anoxic Event (OAE) 1a, as well as during repetitive intervals before and after OAE 1a. In all cases, these short-term intervals of enhanced organic carbon burial coincided with strong influxes of sediments derived from the proximal African continent, indicating closely coupled climate–land–ocean interactions. Supported by our model results, we show that fluctuations in weathering-derived nutrient input from the southern African continent, linked to changes in orbitally driven humidity and aridity, were the underlying drivers of repetitive episodes of enhanced organic carbon burial in the deep Cape Basin. These results suggest that deep marine environments of emerging ocean basins responded sensitively and directly to short-term fluctuations in riverine nutrient fluxes. We explain this relationship using the lack of wide and mature continental shelf seas that could have acted as a barrier or filter for nutrient transfer from the continent into the deep ocean.