Description: Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the eastern equatorial Atlantic are connected to modulations in the strength of the South Atlantic subtropical high-pressure system, referred to as the South Atlantic Anticyclone (SAA). Using ocean and atmosphere reanalysis products we show here that the strength of the SAA from February to May impacts the timing of the cold tongue onset and the intensity of its development in the eastern equatorial Atlantic (EEA) via anomalous tropical wind power. This modulation of the timing and amplitude of the seasonal cold tongue development manifests as anomalous SST events peaking between June and August. The timing and impact of this connection is not completely symmetric for warm and cold events. For cold events, an anomalously strong SAA in February and March leads to positive wind power anomalies from February to June resulting in an early cold tongue onset and subsequent cold SST anomalies in June and July. For warm events the anomalously weak SAA persists until May, generating negative wind power anomalies that lead to a late cold tongue onset as well as a suppression of the cold tongue development and associated warm SST anomalies. Mechanisms by which SAA induced wind power variations south of the equator influence EEA SST are discussed, including ocean adjustment via Rossby and Kelvin wave propagation, meridional advection, and local intraseasonal wind variations

Description: A decadal change in the character of ENSO was observed around year 2000 toward weaker-amplitude, higher-frequency events with an increased occurrence of central Pacific El Niños. Here these changes are assessed in terms of the Bjerknes stability index (BJ index), which is a measure of the growth rate of ENSO-related SST anomalies. The individual terms of the index are calculated from ocean reanalysis products separately for the time periods 1980–99 and 2000–10. The spread between the products is large, but they show a robust weakening of the thermocline feedback due to a reduced thermocline slope response to anomalous zonal wind stress as well as a weakened wind stress response to eastern equatorial Pacific SST anomalies. These changes are consistent with changes in the background state of the tropical Pacific: cooler mean SST in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific results in reduced convection there together with a westward shift in the ascending branch of the Walker circulation. This shift leads to a weakening in the relationship between eastern Pacific SST and longitudinally averaged equatorial zonal wind stress. Also, despite a steeper mean thermocline slope in the more recent period, the thermocline slope response to wind stress anomalies weakened due to a smaller zonal wind fetch that results from ENSO-related wind anomalies being more confined to the western basin. As a result, the total BJ index is more negative, corresponding to a more strongly damped system in the past decade compared to the 1980s and 1990s.

Description: The ECMWF-T21 atmospheric GCM is forced by observed near-global SST from January 1970 to December 1985. Its response in low level winds and surface wind stress over the Pacific Ocean is compared with various observations. The time dependent SST clearly induces a Southern Oscillation (SO) in the model run which is apparent in the time series of all variables considered. The phase of the GCM SO is as observed, but its low frequency variance is too weak and is mainly confined to the western Pacific. Because of the GCM's use as the atmospheric component in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model, the response of an equatorial oceanic primitive equation model to both the modeled and observed wind stress is examined. The ocean model responds to the full observed wind stress forcing in a manner almost identical to that when it is forced by the first two low frequency EOFs of the observations only. These first two EOFs describe a regular eastward propagation of the SO signal from the western Pacific to the central Pacific within about a year. The ocean model's response to the modeled wind stress is too weak and similar to the response when the observed forcing is truncated to the first EOF only. In other words, the observed SO appears as a sequence of propagating patterns but the simulated SO as a standing oscillation. The nature of the deviation of the simulated wind stress from observations is analyzed by means of Model Output Statistics (MOS). It is shown that a MOS-corrected simulated wind stress, if used to force an ocean GCM, leads to a significant enhancement of low frequency SST variance, which is most pronounced in the western Pacific.

Description: Originating in the equatorial Pacific, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has highly consequential global impacts, motivating the need to understand its responses to anthropogenic warming. In this Review, we synthesize advances in observed and projected changes of multiple aspects of ENSO, including the processes behind such changes. As in previous syntheses, there is an inter-model consensus of an increase in future ENSO rainfall variability. Now, however, it is apparent that models that best capture key ENSO dynamics also tend to project an increase in future ENSO sea surface temperature variability and, thereby, ENSO magnitude under greenhouse warming, as well as an eastward shift and intensification of ENSO-related atmospheric teleconnections — the Pacific–North American and Pacific–South American patterns. Such projected changes are consistent with palaeoclimate evidence of stronger ENSO variability since the 1950s compared with past centuries. The increase in ENSO variability, though underpinned by increased equatorial Pacific upper-ocean stratification, is strongly influenced by internal variability, raising issues about its quantifiability and detectability. Yet, ongoing coordinated community efforts and computational advances are enabling long-simulation, large-ensemble experiments and high-resolution modelling, offering encouraging prospects for alleviating model biases, incorporating fundamental dynamical processes and reducing uncertainties in projections. Key points Under anthropogenic warming, the majority of climate models project faster background warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific compared with the west. The observed equatorial Pacific surface warming pattern since 1980, though opposite to the projected faster warming in the equatorial eastern Pacific, is within the inter-model range in terms of sea surface temperature (SST) gradients and is subject to influence from internal variability. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) rainfall responses in the equatorial Pacific are projected to intensify and shift eastward, leading to an eastward intensification of extratropical teleconnections. ENSO SST variability and extreme ENSO events are projected to increase under greenhouse warming, with a stronger inter-model consensus in CMIP6 compared with CMIP5. However, the time of emergence for ENSO SST variability is later than that for ENSO rainfall variability, opposite to that for mean SST versus mean rainfall. Future ENSO change is likely influenced by past variability, such that quantification of future ENSO in the only realization of the real world is challenging. Although there is no definitive relationship of ENSO variability with the mean zonal SST gradient or seasonal cycle, palaeoclimate records suggest a causal connection between vertical temperature stratification and ENSO strength, and a greater ENSO strength since the 1950s than in past centuries, supporting an emerging increase in ENSO variability under greenhouse warming.

Description: The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of interannual climate variability on the planet, with far-reaching global impacts. It is therefore key to evaluate ENSO simulations in state-of-the-art numerical models used to study past, present and future climate. Recently, the Pacific Region Panel of the International Climate and Ocean - Variability, Predictability, and Change (CLIVAR) Project, as a part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), led a community-wide effort to evaluate the simulation of ENSO variability, teleconnections and processes in climate models. The new CLIVAR 2020 ENSO metrics package enables model diagnosis, comparison, and evaluation to (1) highlight aspects that need improvement; (2) monitor progress across model generations; (3) help in selecting models that are well suited for particular analyses; (4) reveal links between various model biases, illuminating the impacts of those biases on ENSO and its sensitivity to climate change; and to (5) advance ENSO literacy. By interfacing with existing model evaluation tools, the ENSO metrics package enables rapid analysis of multi-petabyte databases of simulations, such as those generated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 5 (CMIP5) and 6 (CMIP6). The CMIP6 models are found to significantly outperform those from CMIP5 for 8 out of 24 ENSO-relevant metrics, with most CMIP6 models showing improved tropical Pacific seasonality and ENSO teleconnections. Only one ENSO metric is significantly degraded in CMIP6, namely the coupling between the ocean surface and subsurface temperature anomalies, while the majority of metrics remain unchanged.

Description: El Niño events are characterized by surface warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean and weakening of equatorial trade winds that occur every few years. Such conditions are accompanied by changes in atmospheric and oceanic circulation, affecting global climate, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, fisheries and human activities. The alternation of warm El Niño and cold La Niña conditions, referred to as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), represents the strongest year-to-year fluctuation of the global climate system. Here we provide a synopsis of our current understanding of the spatio-temporal complexity of this important climate mode and its influence on the Earth system.

Description: © The Author(s), 2019. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Foltz, G. R., Brandt, P., Richter, I., Rodriguez-Fonsecao, B., Hernandez, F., Dengler, M., Rodrigues, R. R., Schmidt, J. O., Yu, L., Lefevre, N., Da Cunha, L. C., Mcphaden, M. J., Araujo, M., Karstensen, J., Hahn, J., Martin-Rey, M., Patricola, C. M., Poli, P., Zuidema, P., Hummels, R., Perez, R. C., Hatje, V., Luebbecke, J. F., Palo, I., Lumpkin, R., Bourles, B., Asuquo, F. E., Lehodey, P., Conchon, A., Chang, P., Dandin, P., Schmid, C., Sutton, A., Giordani, H., Xue, Y., Illig, S., Losada, T., Grodsky, S. A., Gasparinss, F., Lees, T., Mohino, E., Nobre, P., Wanninkhof, R., Keenlyside, N., Garcon, V., Sanchez-Gomez, E., Nnamchi, H. C., Drevillon, M., Storto, A., Remy, E., Lazar, A., Speich, S., Goes, M., Dorrington, T., Johns, W. E., Moum, J. N., Robinson, C., Perruches, C., de Souza, R. B., Gaye, A. T., Lopez-Paragess, J., Monerie, P., Castellanos, P., Benson, N. U., Hounkonnou, M. N., Trotte Duha, J., Laxenairess, R., & Reul, N. The tropical Atlantic observing system. Frontiers in Marine Science, 6(206), (2019), doi:10.3389/fmars.2019.00206.

Description: he tropical Atlantic is home to multiple coupled climate variations covering a wide range of timescales and impacting societally relevant phenomena such as continental rainfall, Atlantic hurricane activity, oceanic biological productivity, and atmospheric circulation in the equatorial Pacific. The tropical Atlantic also connects the southern and northern branches of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and receives freshwater input from some of the world’s largest rivers. To address these diverse, unique, and interconnected research challenges, a rich network of ocean observations has developed, building on the backbone of the Prediction and Research Moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic (PIRATA). This network has evolved naturally over time and out of necessity in order to address the most important outstanding scientific questions and to improve predictions of tropical Atlantic severe weather and global climate variability and change. The tropical Atlantic observing system is motivated by goals to understand and better predict phenomena such as tropical Atlantic interannual to decadal variability and climate change; multidecadal variability and its links to the meridional overturning circulation; air-sea fluxes of CO2 and their implications for the fate of anthropogenic CO2; the Amazon River plume and its interactions with biogeochemistry, vertical mixing, and hurricanes; the highly productive eastern boundary and equatorial upwelling systems; and oceanic oxygen minimum zones, their impacts on biogeochemical cycles and marine ecosystems, and their feedbacks to climate. Past success of the tropical Atlantic observing system is the result of an international commitment to sustained observations and scientific cooperation, a willingness to evolve with changing research and monitoring needs, and a desire to share data openly with the scientific community and operational centers. The observing system must continue to evolve in order to meet an expanding set of research priorities and operational challenges. This paper discusses the tropical Atlantic observing system, including emerging scientific questions that demand sustained ocean observations, the potential for further integration of the observing system, and the requirements for sustaining and enhancing the tropical Atlantic observing system.

Description: MM-R received funding from the MORDICUS grant under contract ANR-13-SENV-0002-01 and the MSCA-IF-EF-ST FESTIVAL (H2020-EU project 797236). GF, MG, RLu, RP, RW, and CS were supported by NOAA/OAR through base funds to AOML and the Ocean Observing and Monitoring Division (OOMD; fund reference 100007298). This is NOAA/PMEL contribution #4918. PB, MDe, JH, RH, and JL are grateful for continuing support from the GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel. German participation is further supported by different programs funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, the Deutsche Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (BMBF), and the European Union. The EU-PREFACE project funded by the EU FP7/2007–2013 programme (Grant No. 603521) contributed to results synthesized here. LCC was supported by the UERJ/Prociencia-2018 research grant. JOS received funding from the Cluster of Excellence Future Ocean (EXC80-DFG), the EU-PREFACE project (Grant No. 603521) and the BMBF-AWA project (Grant No. 01DG12073C).

Description: © The Author(s), 2019. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Hermes, J. C., Masumoto, Y., Beal, L. M., Roxy, M. K., Vialard, J., Andres, M., Annamalai, H., Behera, S., D'Adamo, N., Doi, T., Peng, M., Han, W., Hardman-Mountford, N., Hendon, H., Hood, R., Kido, S., Lee, C., Lees, T., Lengaigne, M., Li, J., Lumpkin, R., Navaneeth, K. N., Milligan, B., McPhaden, M. J., Ravichandran, M., Shinoda, T., Singh, A., Sloyan, B., Strutton, P. G., Subramanian, A. C., Thurston, S., Tozuka, T., Ummenhofer, C. C., Unnikrishnan, A. S., Venkatesan, R., Wang, D., Wiggert, J., Yu, L., & Yu, W. (2019). A sustained ocean observing system in the Indian Ocean for climate related scientific knowledge and societal needs. Frontiers in Marine Science, 6, (2019): 355, doi: 10.3389/fmars.2019.00355.

Description: The Indian Ocean is warming faster than any of the global oceans and its climate is uniquely driven by the presence of a landmass at low latitudes, which causes monsoonal winds and reversing currents. The food, water, and energy security in the Indian Ocean rim countries and islands are intrinsically tied to its climate, with marine environmental goods and services, as well as trade within the basin, underpinning their economies. Hence, there are a range of societal needs for Indian Ocean observation arising from the influence of regional phenomena and climate change on, for instance, marine ecosystems, monsoon rains, and sea-level. The Indian Ocean Observing System (IndOOS), is a sustained observing system that monitors basin-scale ocean-atmosphere conditions, while providing flexibility in terms of emerging technologies and scientificand societal needs, and a framework for more regional and coastal monitoring. This paper reviews the societal and scientific motivations, current status, and future directions of IndOOS, while also discussing the need for enhanced coastal, shelf, and regional observations. The challenges of sustainability and implementation are also addressed, including capacity building, best practices, and integration of resources. The utility of IndOOS ultimately depends on the identification of, and engagement with, end-users and decision-makers and on the practical accessibility and transparency of data for a range of products and for decision-making processes. Therefore we highlight current progress, issues and challenges related to end user engagement with IndOOS, as well as the needs of the data assimilation and modeling communities. Knowledge of the status of the Indian Ocean climate and ecosystems and predictability of its future, depends on a wide range of socio-economic and environmental data, a significant part of which is provided by IndOOS.

Description: This work was supported by the PMEL contribution no. 4934.

Description: © The Author(s), 2022. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Tuchen, F., Brandt, P., Hahn, J., Hummels, R., Krahmann, G., Bourlès, B., Provost, C., McPhaden, M., & Toole, J. Two decades of full-depth current velocity observations from a moored observatory in the central equatorial Atlantic at 0°N, 23°W. Frontiers in Marine Science, 9, (2022): 910979, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.910979.

Description: Regional climate variability in the tropical Atlantic, from interannual to decadal time scales, is inevitably connected to changes in the strength and position of the individual components of the tropical current system with impacts on societally relevant climate hazards such as anomalous rainfall or droughts over the surrounding continents (Bourlès et al., 2019; Foltz et al., 2019). Furthermore, the lateral supply of dissolved oxygen in the tropical Atlantic upper-ocean is closely linked to the zonal current bands (Brandt et al., 2008; Brandt et al., 2012; Burmeister et al., 2020) and especially to the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) and its long-term variations with potential implications for regional marine ecosystems (Brandt et al., 2021). The eastward flowing EUC is located between 70 to 200 m depth and forms one of the strongest tropical currents with maximum velocities of up to 1 m s-1 and maximum variability on seasonal time scales (Brandt et al., 2014; Johns et al., 2014). In the intermediate to deep equatorial Atlantic, variability on longer time scales is mainly governed by alternating, vertically-stacked, zonal currents (equatorial deep jets (EDJs); Johnson and Zhang, 2003). At a fixed location, the phases of these jets are propagating downward with time, implying that parts of their energy must propagate upward towards the surface (Brandt et al., 2011). In fact, a pronounced interannual cycle of about 4.5 years, that is associated with EDJs, is projected onto surface parameters such as sea surface temperature or precipitation (Brandt et al., 2011) further demonstrating the importance of understanding equatorial circulation variability and its role in tropical climate variability.

Description: This study was funded by EU H2020 under grant agreement 817578 TRIATLAS project, by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft as part of the Sonderforschungsbereich754 “Climate–Biogeochemistry Interactions in the Tropical Ocean” and through several research cruises with RV Meteor, RV Maria S. Merian, RV L'Atalante, and RV Sonne and by the Deutsche Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (BMBF) as part of the projects RACE (03F06518) and by the European Union 7th Framework Programme (FP7) under Grant Agreement 603521. Moored velocity observations were acquired in cooperation with the PIRATA project supported by NOAA (USA), IRD and Meteo-France (France), INPE (Brazil) and the Brazil Navy. This research was performed while FPT held an NRC Research Associateship Award at NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory. FPT, PB, JH, RH, and GK are grateful for continuing support from GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel. MM acknowledges the support of NOAA; PMEL contribution no. 5359. JT's contributions to this study were supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation.