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  • 1
    Book
    Book
    Hamburg : Max-Planck-Inst. für Meteorologie
    Type of Medium: Book
    Pages: 16 S , graph. Darst., Kt , 30 cm
    Series Statement: Report / Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie No. 302
    Language: English
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: © The Author(s), 2018. This is the author's version of the work and is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 33 (2018): 104-113, doi:10.1016/j.cosust.2018.04.003.
    Description: Increased natural and anthropogenic stresses have threatened the Earth’s ability to meet growing human demands of food, energy and water (FEW) in a sustainable way. Although much progress has been made in the provision of individual component of FEW, it remains unknown whether there is an optimized strategy to balance the FEW nexus as a whole, reduce air and water pollution, and mitigate climate change on national and global scales. Increasing FEW conflicts in the agroecosystems make it an urgent need to improve our understanding and quantification of how to balance resource investment and enhance resource use efficiencies in the FEW nexus. Therefore, we propose an integrated modeling system of the FEW nexus by coupling an ecosystem model, an economic model, and a regional climate model, aiming to mimic the interactions and feedbacks within the ecosystem-human-climate systems. The trade-offs between FEW benefit and economic cost in excess resource usage, environmental degradation, and climate consequences will be quantitatively assessed, which will serve as sustainability indicators for agricultural systems (including crop production, livestock and aquaculture). We anticipate that the development and implementation of such an integrated modeling platform across world’s regions could build capabilities in understanding the agriculture-centered FEW nexus and guiding policy and land management decision making for a sustainable future.
    Description: This study has been supported by National Key R & D Program of China (no. 2017YFA0604702), CAS STS Program (KFJ-STS-ZDTP-010-05), SKLURE Grant (SKLURE2017-1-6), National Science Foundation (1210360, 1243232), NOAA Grants (NA16NOS4780207, NA16NOS4780204), and AU-OUC Joint Center Program.
    Description: 2020-05-28
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Preprint
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 96 (2015): 921–938, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00117.1.
    Description: El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring mode of tropical Pacific variability, with global impacts on society and natural ecosystems. While it has long been known that El Niño events display a diverse range of amplitudes, triggers, spatial patterns, and life cycles, the realization that ENSO’s impacts can be highly sensitive to this event-to-event diversity is driving a renewed interest in the subject. This paper surveys our current state of knowledge of ENSO diversity, identifies key gaps in understanding, and outlines some promising future research directions.
    Description: AC acknowledges support from the National Science Foundation for this study.
    Description: 2015-12-01
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2021-02-08
    Description: El Niño events are characterized by surface warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean and weakening of equatorial trade winds that occur every few years. Such conditions are accompanied by changes in atmospheric and oceanic circulation, affecting global climate, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, fisheries and human activities. The alternation of warm El Niño and cold La Niña conditions, referred to as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), represents the strongest year-to-year fluctuation of the global climate system. Here we provide a synopsis of our current understanding of the spatio-temporal complexity of this important climate mode and its influence on the Earth system.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    Format: text
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: Originating in the equatorial Pacific, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has highly consequential global impacts, motivating the need to understand its responses to anthropogenic warming. In this Review, we synthesize advances in observed and projected changes of multiple aspects of ENSO, including the processes behind such changes. As in previous syntheses, there is an inter-model consensus of an increase in future ENSO rainfall variability. Now, however, it is apparent that models that best capture key ENSO dynamics also tend to project an increase in future ENSO sea surface temperature variability and, thereby, ENSO magnitude under greenhouse warming, as well as an eastward shift and intensification of ENSO-related atmospheric teleconnections — the Pacific–North American and Pacific–South American patterns. Such projected changes are consistent with palaeoclimate evidence of stronger ENSO variability since the 1950s compared with past centuries. The increase in ENSO variability, though underpinned by increased equatorial Pacific upper-ocean stratification, is strongly influenced by internal variability, raising issues about its quantifiability and detectability. Yet, ongoing coordinated community efforts and computational advances are enabling long-simulation, large-ensemble experiments and high-resolution modelling, offering encouraging prospects for alleviating model biases, incorporating fundamental dynamical processes and reducing uncertainties in projections. Key points Under anthropogenic warming, the majority of climate models project faster background warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific compared with the west. The observed equatorial Pacific surface warming pattern since 1980, though opposite to the projected faster warming in the equatorial eastern Pacific, is within the inter-model range in terms of sea surface temperature (SST) gradients and is subject to influence from internal variability. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) rainfall responses in the equatorial Pacific are projected to intensify and shift eastward, leading to an eastward intensification of extratropical teleconnections. ENSO SST variability and extreme ENSO events are projected to increase under greenhouse warming, with a stronger inter-model consensus in CMIP6 compared with CMIP5. However, the time of emergence for ENSO SST variability is later than that for ENSO rainfall variability, opposite to that for mean SST versus mean rainfall. Future ENSO change is likely influenced by past variability, such that quantification of future ENSO in the only realization of the real world is challenging. Although there is no definitive relationship of ENSO variability with the mean zonal SST gradient or seasonal cycle, palaeoclimate records suggest a causal connection between vertical temperature stratification and ENSO strength, and a greater ENSO strength since the 1950s than in past centuries, supporting an emerging increase in ENSO variability under greenhouse warming.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: text
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