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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2021-10-11
    Description: The El Niño phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is typically associated with below-average cool-season rainfall in southeastern Australia (SEA). However, there is also large case-to-case variability on monthly time-scales. Despite recent progress in understanding the links between remote climate drivers and this variability, the underlying dynamical processes are not fully understood. This reanalysis-based study aims to advance the dynamical understanding by quantifying the contribution of midlatitude weather systems to monthly precipitation anomalies over SEA during the austral winter–spring season. A k-means clustering reveals four rainfall anomaly patterns with above-average rainfall (Cluster 1), below-average rainfall (Cluster 2), above-average rainfall along the East Coast (Cluster 3) and along the South Coast (Cluster 4). Cluster 2 occurs most frequently during El Niño, which highlights the general suppression of SEA rainfall during these events. However, the remaining three clusters with local above-average rainfall are found in ∼52% of all El Niño months. Changes of weather system frequency determine the respective rainfall anomaly pattern. Results indicate significantly more cut-off lows and warm conveyor belts (WCBs) over SEA in El Niño Cluster 1 and significantly fewer in El Niño Cluster 2. In El Niño Cluster 3, enhanced blocking south of Australia favours cut-off lows leading to increased rainfall along the East Coast. Positive rainfall anomalies along the South Coast in El Niño Cluster 4 are associated with frontal rainfall due to an equatorward shift of the midlatitude storm track. Most of the rainfall is produced by WCBs and cut-off lows but the contributions strongly vary between the clusters. In all clusters, rainfall anomalies result from changes in rainfall frequency more than in rainfall intensity. Backward trajectories of WCB and cut-off low rainfall highlight the importance of moist air masses from the Coral Sea and the northwest coast of Australia during wet months.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; backward trajectories ; clustering ; El Niño ; rainfall decomposition ; rainfall origin ; rainfall variability ; southeastern Australia ; synoptic weather systems
    Language: English
    Type: map
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2021-02-08
    Description: El Niño events are characterized by surface warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean and weakening of equatorial trade winds that occur every few years. Such conditions are accompanied by changes in atmospheric and oceanic circulation, affecting global climate, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, fisheries and human activities. The alternation of warm El Niño and cold La Niña conditions, referred to as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), represents the strongest year-to-year fluctuation of the global climate system. Here we provide a synopsis of our current understanding of the spatio-temporal complexity of this important climate mode and its influence on the Earth system.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
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  • 3
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    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    In:  Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 119 (9). pp. 6221-6237.
    Publication Date: 2019-09-23
    Description: Previous studies have shown that ENSO's anomalous equatorial winds, including the observed southward shift of zonal winds that occurs around the event peak, can be reconstructed with the first two Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) of equatorial region wind stresses. Using a high-resolution ocean general circulation model, we investigate the effect of these two EOFs on changes in warm water volume (WWV), interhemispheric mass transports, and Indonesian Throughflow (ITF). Wind stress anomalies associated with the first EOF produce changes in WWV that are dynamically consistent with the conceptual recharge oscillator paradigm. The ITF is found to heavily damp these WWV changes, reducing their variance by half. Wind stress anomalies associated with the second EOF, which depicts the southward wind shift, are responsible for WWV changes that are of comparable magnitude to those driven by the first mode. The southward wind shift is also responsible for the majority of the observed interhemispheric upper ocean mass exchanges. These winds transfer mass between the Northern and the Southern Hemisphere during El Niño events. Whilst water is transferred in the opposite direction during La Niña events, the magnitude of this exchange is roughly half of that seen during El Niño events. Thus, the discharging of WWV during El Niño events is meridionally asymmetric, while the WWV recharging during a La Niña event is largely symmetric. The inclusion of the southward wind shift is also shown to allow ENSO to exchange mass with much higher latitudes than that allowed by the first EOF alone.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: Naturally occurring tropical Pacific variations at timescales of 7–70 years — tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV) — describe basin-scale sea surface temperature (SST), sea-level pressure and heat content anomalies. Several mechanisms are proposed to explain TPDV, which can originate through oceanic processes, atmospheric processes or as an El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) residual. In this Review, we synthesize knowledge of these mechanisms, their characteristics and contribution to TPDV. Oceanic processes include off-equatorial Rossby waves, which mediate oceanic adjustment and contribute to variations in equatorial thermocline depth and SST; variations in the strength of the shallow upper-ocean overturning circulation, which exhibit a large anti-correlation with equatorial Pacific SST at interannual and decadal timescales; and the propagation of salinity-compensated temperature (spiciness) anomalies from the subtropics to the equatorial thermocline. Atmospheric processes include midlatitude internal variability leading to tropical and subtropical wind anomalies, which result in equatorial SST anomalies and feedbacks that enhance persistence; and atmospheric teleconnections from Atlantic and Indian Ocean SST variability, which induce winds conducive to decadal anomalies of the opposite sign in the Pacific. Although uncertain, the tropical adjustment through Rossby wave activity is likely a dominant mechanism. A deeper understanding of the origin and spectral characteristics of TPDV-related winds is a key priority.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of interannual climate variability on the planet, with far-reaching global impacts. It is therefore key to evaluate ENSO simulations in state-of-the-art numerical models used to study past, present and future climate. Recently, the Pacific Region Panel of the International Climate and Ocean - Variability, Predictability, and Change (CLIVAR) Project, as a part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), led a community-wide effort to evaluate the simulation of ENSO variability, teleconnections and processes in climate models. The new CLIVAR 2020 ENSO metrics package enables model diagnosis, comparison, and evaluation to (1) highlight aspects that need improvement; (2) monitor progress across model generations; (3) help in selecting models that are well suited for particular analyses; (4) reveal links between various model biases, illuminating the impacts of those biases on ENSO and its sensitivity to climate change; and to (5) advance ENSO literacy. By interfacing with existing model evaluation tools, the ENSO metrics package enables rapid analysis of multi-petabyte databases of simulations, such as those generated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 5 (CMIP5) and 6 (CMIP6). The CMIP6 models are found to significantly outperform those from CMIP5 for 8 out of 24 ENSO-relevant metrics, with most CMIP6 models showing improved tropical Pacific seasonality and ENSO teleconnections. Only one ENSO metric is significantly degraded in CMIP6, namely the coupling between the ocean surface and subsurface temperature anomalies, while the majority of metrics remain unchanged.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: Understanding mechanisms of tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV) is of high importance for differentiating between natural climate variability and human induced climate change as this region sustains strong global teleconnections. Here, we use an ocean general circulation model along with a Lagrangian tracer simulator to investigate the advection of density compensated temperature anomalies (“spiciness mechanism”) as a potential contributor to TPDV during the 1980–2016 period. Consistent with observations, we find the primary regions of spiciness generation in the eastern subtropics of each hemisphere. Our results indicate that 75% of the equatorial subsurface water originates in the subtropics, of which two thirds come from the Southern hemisphere. We further show two prominent cases where remotely generated spiciness anomalies are advected to the equatorial Pacific, impacting subsurface temperature. The relative contribution of Northern versus Southern Hemisphere prominence and/or interior versus western boundary pathways depends on the specific event. The anomalously warm case largely results from advection via the Southern hemisphere interior (65%), while the anomalously cold case largely results from advection via the Northern hemisphere western boundary (48%). The relatively slow travel times from the subtropics to the equator (〉 4 years) suggests that these spiciness anomalies underpin a potentially predictable contribution to TPDV. However, not all decadal peaks in equatorial spiciness can be explained by remotely generated spiciness anomalies. In those cases, we propose that spiciness anomalies are generated in the equatorial zone through changes in the proportion of Northern/Southern hemisphere source waters due to their different mean spiciness distribution.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: Originating in the equatorial Pacific, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has highly consequential global impacts, motivating the need to understand its responses to anthropogenic warming. In this Review, we synthesize advances in observed and projected changes of multiple aspects of ENSO, including the processes behind such changes. As in previous syntheses, there is an inter-model consensus of an increase in future ENSO rainfall variability. Now, however, it is apparent that models that best capture key ENSO dynamics also tend to project an increase in future ENSO sea surface temperature variability and, thereby, ENSO magnitude under greenhouse warming, as well as an eastward shift and intensification of ENSO-related atmospheric teleconnections — the Pacific–North American and Pacific–South American patterns. Such projected changes are consistent with palaeoclimate evidence of stronger ENSO variability since the 1950s compared with past centuries. The increase in ENSO variability, though underpinned by increased equatorial Pacific upper-ocean stratification, is strongly influenced by internal variability, raising issues about its quantifiability and detectability. Yet, ongoing coordinated community efforts and computational advances are enabling long-simulation, large-ensemble experiments and high-resolution modelling, offering encouraging prospects for alleviating model biases, incorporating fundamental dynamical processes and reducing uncertainties in projections. Key points Under anthropogenic warming, the majority of climate models project faster background warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific compared with the west. The observed equatorial Pacific surface warming pattern since 1980, though opposite to the projected faster warming in the equatorial eastern Pacific, is within the inter-model range in terms of sea surface temperature (SST) gradients and is subject to influence from internal variability. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) rainfall responses in the equatorial Pacific are projected to intensify and shift eastward, leading to an eastward intensification of extratropical teleconnections. ENSO SST variability and extreme ENSO events are projected to increase under greenhouse warming, with a stronger inter-model consensus in CMIP6 compared with CMIP5. However, the time of emergence for ENSO SST variability is later than that for ENSO rainfall variability, opposite to that for mean SST versus mean rainfall. Future ENSO change is likely influenced by past variability, such that quantification of future ENSO in the only realization of the real world is challenging. Although there is no definitive relationship of ENSO variability with the mean zonal SST gradient or seasonal cycle, palaeoclimate records suggest a causal connection between vertical temperature stratification and ENSO strength, and a greater ENSO strength since the 1950s than in past centuries, supporting an emerging increase in ENSO variability under greenhouse warming.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: This study utilizes observations and a series of idealized experiments to explore whether eastern Pacific (EP)- and central Pacific (CP)-type El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events produce surface wind stress responses with distinct spatial structures. We find that the meridionally broader sea surface temperatures (SSTs) during CP events lead to zonal wind stresses that are also meridionally broader than those found during EP-type events, leading to differences in the near-equatorial wind stress curl. These wind spatial structure differences create differences in the associated pre- and post-ENSO event WWV response. For instance, the meridionally narrow winds found during EP events have (i) weaker wind stresses along 58N and 58S, leading to weaker Ekman-induced pre-event WWV changes; and (ii) stronger near-equatorial wind stress curls that lead to a much larger post-ENSO event WWV changes than during CP events. The latter suggests that, in the framework of the recharge oscillator model, the EP events have stronger coupling between sea surface temperatures (SST) and thermocline (WWV), supporting more clearly the phase transition of ENSO events, and therefore, the oscillating nature of ENSO than CP events. The results suggest that the spatial structure of the SST pattern and the related differences in the wind stress curl, are required along with equatorial wind stress to accurately model the WWV changes during EP- and CP-type ENSO events.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: This study demonstrates that the generalization that strong anomalous equatorial Pacific westerly (easterly) winds during El Niño (La Niña) events displays strong adjusted warm water volume (WWV) discharges (recharges) is often incorrect. Using ocean model simulations, we categorize the oceanic adjusted responses to strong anomalous equatorial winds into two categories: (i) transitioning (consistent with the above generalization); and (ii) neutral adjusted responses (with negligible WWV re- and discharge) During the 1980-2016 period only 47% of strong anomalous equatorial winds are followed by transitioning adjusted responses, while the remaining are followed by neutral adjusted responses. Moreover, 55% (only 30%) of the strongest winds lead to transitioning adjusted responses during the pre-2000 (post-2000) period in agreement with the previously reported post-2000 decline of WWV lead time to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The prominent neutral adjusted WWV response is shown to be largely excited by anomalous wind stress forcing with a weaker curl (on average consistent with a higher ratio of off-equatorial to equatorial wind events) and weaker Rossby wave projection than the transitioning adjusted response. We also identify a prominent ENSO phase asymmetry where strong anomalous equatorial westerly winds (i.e., El Niño events) are roughly 1.6 times more likely to strongly discharge WWV than strong anomalous equatorial easterly winds (i.e., La Niña events) are to strongly recharge WWV. This ENSO phase asymmetry may be added to the list of mechanisms proposed to explain why El Niño events have a stronger tendency to be followed by La Niña events than vice versa.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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