Description: Between 1733 and 1895, a total of 35 additional volcanic eruptions were detected in the new high-resolution measurements (D4i dataset: "Greenland ice-core non-sea-salt sulfur concentrations and calculated volcanic sulfate deposition (1733-1900 CE)" (PANGAEA, doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.960977) of the D4 ice core (McConnel et al., 2007). For the same time period only 25 volcanic eruptions had previously been detected using an ice-core array from Greenland (including NEEM-2011-S1 and NGRIP) and Antarctica, making up the eVolv2k database [Toohey and Sigl, 2017]. 21 volcanic events in D4i are found to match events in the eVolv2k database, 8 tropical events and 13 Northern Hemisphere extratropical (NHET) events. Based on linear fits of eVolv2k volcanic stratospheric sulfur injections (VSSI) to the cumulative D4i sulfate deposition rates, we derive scaling factors to convert D4i volcanic sulfate depositions to VSSI. Fits are of high quality with R2 values of 0.91 and 0.99 for tropical and extratropical events, respectively. Of the remaining events identified in D4i but not included in eVolv2k, we find 11 that are tentatively attributable to VEI=4 events listed in the Volcanoes of the World [Global Volcanism Program, 2013] (GVP) database (e.g, Soufriere St. Vincent, and Awu in 1812; Suwanosejima in 1813; Mayon 1814; Raung 1817; Colima 1818). Although attribution is not completely certain, for these events we assume the attribution is correct and use the historically dated eruption date and location from Volcanoes of the World (Global Volcanism Program, 2013). Eruptions found in D4i which do not have a corresponding event in the GVP database could result from a number of scenarios. To avoid a potential bias by attributing these signals to either tropical latitudes (0°) or to NHET latitudes (i.e. 45°N), we represent the forcing by these unidentified events as the probability-weighted superposition of tropical and extratropical eruptions based on the measured sulfate flux. For each event we calculate the VSSI associated with the sulfate deposition assuming on the one hand the event was tropical, and on the other hand assuming it was extratropical. These VSSI values are then multiplied by the probability that the event was either tropical or extratropical, based on the proportion of NHET and tropical events in the Greenland records used in eVolv2k. Each unidentified sulfate deposition is then represented in the VSSI file as two injections, with the same eruption time taken from the ice ice-core dating, and different VSSI amounts for default tropical and extratropical regions. The resulting list of "additional" eruptions not included in eVolv2k is merged with eVolv2k, and the resulting eruption list named eVolv2k plus D4i used as input to the EVA forcing generator [Toohey et al., 2016] to generate time series of stratospheric aerosol optical depth (SAOD).

Description: Based on a set of continuous sulfate records from a suite of ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica, the HolVol v.1.0 database includes estimates of the magnitudes and approximate source latitudes of major volcanic stratospheric sulfur injection (VSSI) events for the Holocene (from 9500 BCE or 11500 year BP to 1900 CE), constituting an extension of the previous record by 7000 years. The database incorporates new-generation ice-core aerosol records with sub-annual temporal resolution and demonstrated sub-decadal dating accuracy and precision. By tightly aligning and stacking the ice-core records on the WD2014 chronology from Antarctica we resolve long-standing previous inconsistencies in the dating of ancient volcanic eruptions that arise from biased (i.e. dated too old) ice-core chronologies over the Holocene for Greenland. A long-term latitudinally and monthly resolved stratospheric aerosol optical depth (SAOD) time series is reconstructed from the HolVol VSSI estimates, representing the first such reconstruction Holocene-scale reconstruction constrained by Greenland and Antarctica ice cores. These new long-term reconstructions of past VSSI and SAOD variability confirm evidence from regional volcanic eruption chronologies (e.g., from Iceland) in showing that the early Holocene (9500-7000 BCE) experienced a higher number of volcanic eruptions (+16%) and cumulative VSSI (+86%) compared to the past 2,500 years. This increase is coinciding with then rapidly retreating ice sheets during deglaciation, providing context for potential future increases of volcanic activity in regions under projected glacier melting in the 21st century.

Description: Assessments of climate sensitivity to projected greenhouse gas concentrations underpin environmental policy decisions, with such assessments often based on model simulations of climate during recent centuries and millennia1, 2, 3. These simulations depend critically on accurate records of past aerosol forcing from global-scale volcanic eruptions, reconstructed from measurements of sulphate deposition in ice cores4, 5, 6. Non-uniform transport and deposition of volcanic fallout mean that multiple records from a wide array of ice cores must be combined to create accurate reconstructions. Here we re-evaluated the record of volcanic sulphate deposition using a much more extensive array of Antarctic ice cores. In our new reconstruction, many additional records have been added and dating of previously published records corrected through precise synchronization to the annually dated West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide ice core7, improving and extending the record throughout the Common Era. Whereas agreement with existing reconstructions is excellent after 1500, we found a substantially different history of volcanic aerosol deposition before 1500; for example, global aerosol forcing values from some of the largest eruptions (for example, 1257 and 1458) previously were overestimated by 20–30% and others underestimated by 20–50%.

Description: We describe the main differences in simulations of stratospheric climate and variability by models within the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) that have a model top above the stratopause and relatively fine stratospheric vertical resolution (high-top), and those that have a model top below the stratopause (low-top). Although the simulation of mean stratospheric climate by the two model ensembles is similar, the low-top model ensemble has very weak stratospheric variability on daily and interannual time scales. The frequency of major sudden stratospheric warming events is strongly underestimated by the low-top models with less than half the frequency of events observed in the reanalysis data and high-top models. The lack of stratospheric variability in the low-top models affects their stratosphere-troposphere coupling, resulting in short-lived anomalies in the Northern Annular Mode, which do not produce long-lasting tropospheric impacts, as seen in observations. The lack of stratospheric variability, however, does not appear to have any impact on the ability of the low-top models to reproduce past stratospheric temperature trends. We find little improvement in the simulation of decadal variability for the high-top models compared to the low-top, which is likely related to the fact that neither ensemble produces a realistic dynamical response to volcanic eruptions

Description: Climatologies of atmospheric observations are often produced by binning measurements according to latitude, and calculating zonal means. The uncertainty in these climatological means is characterized by the standard error of the mean (SEM). However, the usual estimator of the SEM, i.e. the sample standard deviation divided by the square root of the sample size, holds only for uncorrelated randomly sampled measurements. Measurements of the atmospheric state along a satellite orbit cannot always be considered as independent because (a) the time-space interval between two nearest observations is often smaller than the typical scale of variations in the atmospheric state, and (b) the regular time-space sampling pattern of a satellite instrument strongly deviates from random sampling. We have developed an experiment where global chemical fields from a chemistry climate model are sampled according to real sampling patterns of satellite-borne instruments. As case studies, sampling patterns of the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) and Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier-Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) satellite instruments are used to iteratively subsample the model O3 fields and produce empirical estimates of the standard error of monthly mean zonal mean model O3 in 5° latitude bins. We find that generally the classic SEM estimator is a conservative estimate of the SEM, i.e. the empirical SEM is often less than the classic estimate. Exceptions occur in instances where the zonal sampling distribution shows non-uniformity with a similar zonal structure as variations in the sampled field, leading to maximum sensitivity to arbitrary phase shifts between the sample distribution and sampled field. The occurrence of such instances is thus very sensitive to slight changes in the sampling distribution, and to the variations in the measured field. This study highlights the need for caution in the interpretation of the oft-used classically computed SEM, and outlines a relatively simple methodology that can be used to assess one component of the uncertainty in monthly mean zonal mean climatologies produced from measurements from satellite-borne instruments

Description: Reconstructions of the atmospheric sulfate aerosol burdens resulting from past volcanic eruptions are based on ice core-derived estimates of volcanic sulfate deposition and the assumption that the two quantities are directly proportional. We test this assumption within simulations of tropical volcanic stratospheric sulfur injections with the MAECHAM5-HAM aerosol-climate model. An ensemble of 70 simulations is analyzed, with SO2 injections ranging from 8.5 to 700 Tg, with eruptions in January and July. Modeled sulfate deposition flux to Antarctica shows excellent spatial correlation with ice core-derived estimates for Pinatubo and Tambora, although the comparison suggests the modeled flux to the ice sheets is 4–5 times too large. We find that Greenland and Antarctic deposition efficiencies (the ratio of sulfate flux to each ice sheet to the maximum hemispheric stratospheric sulfate aerosol burden) vary as a function of the magnitude and season of stratospheric sulfur injection. Changes in simulated sulfate deposition for large SO2 injections are connected to increases in aerosol particle size, which impact aerosol sedimentation velocity and radiative properties, the latter leading to strong dynamical changes including strengthening of the winter polar vortices, which inhibits the transport of stratospheric aerosols to high latitudes. The resulting relationship between Antarctic and Greenland volcanic sulfate deposition is nonlinear for very large eruptions, with significantly less sulfate deposition to Antarctica than to Greenland. These model results suggest that variability of deposition efficiency may be an important consideration in the interpretation of ice core sulfate signals for eruptions of Tambora-magnitude and larger.

Description: Observations and simple theoretical arguments suggest that the Northern Hemisphere (NH) stratospheric polar vortex is stronger in winters following major volcanic eruptions. However, recent studies show that climate models forced by prescribed volcanic aerosol fields fail to reproduce this effect. We investigate the impact of volcanic aerosol forcing on stratospheric dynamics, including the strength of the NH polar vortex, in ensemble simulations with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model. The model is forced by four different prescribed forcing sets representing the radiative properties of stratospheric aerosol following the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo: two forcing sets are based on observations, and are commonly used in climate model simulations, and two forcing sets are constructed based on coupled aerosol–climate model simulations. For all forcings, we find that simulated temperature and zonal wind anomalies in the NH high latitudes are not directly impacted by anomalous volcanic aerosol heating. Instead, high-latitude effects result from enhancements in stratospheric residual circulation, which in turn result, at least in part, from enhanced stratospheric wave activity. High-latitude effects are therefore much less robust than would be expected if they were the direct result of aerosol heating. Both observation-based forcing sets result in insignificant changes in vortex strength. For the model-based forcing sets, the vortex response is found to be sensitive to the structure of the forcing, with one forcing set leading to significant strengthening of the polar vortex in rough agreement with observation-based expectations. Differences in the dynamical response to the forcing sets imply that reproducing the polar vortex responses to past eruptions, or predicting the response to future eruptions, depends on accurate representation of the space–time structure of the volcanic aerosol forcing.

Description: A comprehensive quality assessment of the ozone products from 18 limb-viewing satellite instruments is provided by means of a detailed inter-comparison. The ozone climatologies in the form of monthly zonal mean time series covering the upper troposphere to lower mesosphere are obtained from LIMS, SAGE I, SAGE II, UARS-MLS, HALOE, POAM II, POAM III, SMR, OSIRIS, SAGE III, MIPAS, GOMOS, SCIAMACHY, ACE-FTS, ACE-MAESTRO, Aura-MLS, HIRDLS, and SMILES within 1978-2010. The inter-comparisons focus on mean biases based on monthly and annual zonal mean fields, on inter-annual variability and on seasonal cycles. Additionally, the physical consistency of the data sets is tested through diagnostics of the quasi-biennial oscillation and the Antarctic ozone hole. The comprehensive evaluations reveal that the uncertainty in our knowledge of the atmospheric ozone mean state is smallest in the tropical middle stratosphere and in the midlatitude lower/middle stratosphere, where we find a 1σ multi-instrument spread of less than ±5%. While the overall agreement among the climatological data sets is very good for large parts of the stratosphere, individual discrepancies have been identified including unrealistic month-to-month fluctuations, large biases in particular atmospheric regions, or inconsistencies in the seasonal cycle. Notable differences between the data sets exist in the tropical lower stratosphere and at high latitudes, with a multi-instrument spread of ±30% at the tropical tropopause and ±15% at polar latitudes. In particular, large relative differences are identified in the Antarctic polar cap during the time of the ozone hole, with a spread between the monthly zonal mean fields of ±50%. Differences between the climatological data sets are suggested to be partially related to inter-instrumental differences in vertical resolution and geographical sampling. The evaluations as a whole provide guidance on what data sets are the most reliable for applications such as studies of ozone variability, model-measurement comparisons and detection of long-term trends. A detailed comparison versus SAGE II data is presented, which can help identify suitable candidates for long-term data merging studies.

Description: We present the first comprehensive intercomparison of currently available satellite ozone climatologies in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UTLS) (300-70hPa) as part of the Stratosphere-troposphere Processes and their Role in Climate (SPARC) Data Initiative. The Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) instrument is the only nadir-viewing instrument in this initiative, as well as the only instrument with a focus on tropospheric composition. We apply the TES observational operator to ozone climatologies from the more highly vertically resolved limb-viewing instruments. This minimizes the impact of differences in vertical resolution among the instruments and allows identification of systematic differences in the large-scale structure and variability of UTLS ozone. We find that the climatologies from most of the limb-viewing instruments show positive differences (ranging from 5 to 75%) with respect to TES in the tropical UTLS, and comparison to a zonal mean ozonesonde climatology indicates that these differences likely represent a positive bias for p100hPa. In the extratropics, there is good agreement among the climatologies regarding the timing and magnitude of the ozone seasonal cycle (differences in the peak-to-peak amplitude of 〈15%) when the TES observational operator is applied, as well as very consistent midlatitude interannual variability. The discrepancies in ozone temporal variability are larger in the tropics, with differences between the data sets of up to 55% in the seasonal cycle amplitude. However, the differences among the climatologies are everywhere much smaller than the range produced by current chemistry-climate models, indicating that the multiple-instrument ensemble is useful for quantitatively evaluating these models.