Description: China has promoted its vegetation cover and terrestrial carbon sink through ecological restorations since the end of the 20th century. However, the temporal variation in vegetation carbon sequestration remains unclear, and the relative effects of climate change and human efforts are under debate. By integrating remote sensing and machine learning approaches into modelling, we explored the biological and physical pathways by which both climate change and human activities (e.g., ecological restoration, cropland expansion, and urbanization) have altered the Chinese terrestrial ecosystem, including the vegetation cover, surface heat fluxes, water flux and finally, vegetation carbon sequestration (i.e., gross and net primary production, GPP and NPP). During 2001~2018, GPP in China increased significantly at a rate of 49.1~53.1 TgC/yr2, and the climatic and anthropogenic contributions to GPP gains were comparable (48%~56% vs. 44%~52%). Spatially, afforestation dominated the forest cover expansions in the farming-pastoral ecotone in northern China, the Loess Plateau and the southwest karst region, while climate change promoted vegetation cover in most parts of southeastern China. Meanwhile, the NPP trend (22.4~24.9 TgC/yr2) during 2001~2018 was highly attributed to human disturbances (71%~81%), particularly in southern, eastern and northeastern China. The increases in both GPP and NPP both accelerated after 2010. This is because that over 2001~2010, the anthropogenic NPP gains were generally offset by the negative climatic impact in southern China. However, after 2010, the climatic influence reversed, becoming positive, thus magnifying the positive impact of ecological restoration.

Description: Excessive anthropogenic nitrogen (N) inputs to the biosphere have disrupted the global nitrogen cycle. To better quantify the spatial and temporal patterns of anthropogenic N enrichments, assess their impacts on the biogeochemical cycles of the planet and other living organisms, and improve nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) for sustainable development, we develop a comprehensive and synthetic dataset for anthropogenic N inputs to the terrestrial biosphere. This Harmonized Anthropogenic N Inputs (HaNi) dataset takes advantage of different data sources in a spatiotemporally consistent way to generate a set of high-resolution gridded N input products from the preindustrial to present (1860-2019). The HaNi dataset includes annual rates of synthetic N fertilizer, manure application/deposition, and atmospheric N deposition in cropland, pasture, and rangeland at 5-arcmin. Specifically, the N inputs are categorized, according to the N forms and the land use, as 1) NH4-N fertilizer applied to cropland, 2) NO3-N fertilizer applied to cropland, 3) NH4-N fertilizer applied to pasture, 4) NO3-N fertilizer applied to pasture, 5) manure N application on cropland, 6) manure N application on pasture, 7) manure N deposition on pasture, 8) manure N deposition on rangeland, 9) NHx-N deposition, and 10) NOy-N deposition. The total anthropogenic N (TN) inputs to global terrestrial ecosystems increased from 29.05 Tg N yr-1 in the 1860s to 267.23 Tg N yr-1 in the 2010s, with the dominant N source changing from atmospheric N deposition (before the 1900s) to manure N (the 1910s-2000s), and to synthetic fertilizer in the 2010s. The proportion of synthetic NH4-N fertilizer increased from 64% in the 1960s to 90% in the 2010s, while synthetic NO3-N fertilizer decreased from 36% in the 1960s to 10% in the 2010s. Hotspots of TN inputs shifted from Europe and North America to East and South Asia during the 1960s-2010s. Such spatial and temporal dynamics captured by the HaNi dataset are expected to facilitate a comprehensive assessment of the coupled human-earth system and address a variety of social welfare issues, such as climate-biosphere feedback, air pollution, water quality, and biodiversity.

Description: Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the year 2021, EFOS increased by 5.1% relative to 2020, with fossil emissions at 10.1±0.5GtCyr-1 (9.9±0.5GtCyr-1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 1.1±0.7GtCyr-1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 10.9±0.8GtCyr-1 (40.0±2.9GtCO2). Also, for 2021, GATM was 5.2±0.2GtCyr-1 (2.5±0.1ppmyr-1), SOCEAN was 2.9 ±0.4GtCyr-1, and SLAND was 3.5±0.9GtCyr-1, with a BIM of -0.6GtCyr-1 (i.e. the total estimated sources were too low or sinks were too high). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2021 reached 414.71±0.1ppm. Preliminary data for 2022 suggest an increase in EFOS relative to 2021 of +1.0% (0.1% to 1.9%) globally and atmospheric CO2 concentration reaching 417.2ppm, more than 50% above pre-industrial levels (around 278ppm). Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959-2021, but discrepancies of up to 1GtCyr-1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use change emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extratropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set. The data presented in this work are available at 10.18160/GCP-2022 (Friedlingstein et al., 2022b).

Description: Nitrous oxide (N2O), like carbon dioxide, is a long-lived greenhouse gas that accumulates in the atmosphere. Over the past 150 years, increasing atmospheric N2O concentrations have contributed to stratospheric ozone depletion1 and climate change2, with the current rate of increase estimated at 2 per cent per decade. Existing national inventories do not provide a full picture of N2O emissions, owing to their omission of natural sources and limitations in methodology for attributing anthropogenic sources. Here we present a global N2O inventory that incorporates both natural and anthropogenic sources and accounts for the interaction between nitrogen additions and the biochemical processes that control N2O emissions. We use bottom-up (inventory, statistical extrapolation of flux measurements, process-based land and ocean modelling) and top-down (atmospheric inversion) approaches to provide a comprehensive quantification of global N2O sources and sinks resulting from 21 natural and human sectors between 1980 and 2016. Global N2O emissions were 17.0 (minimum–maximum estimates: 12.2–23.5) teragrams of nitrogen per year (bottom-up) and 16.9 (15.9–17.7) teragrams of nitrogen per year (top-down) between 2007 and 2016. Global human-induced emissions, which are dominated by nitrogen additions to croplands, increased by 30% over the past four decades to 7.3 (4.2–11.4) teragrams of nitrogen per year. This increase was mainly responsible for the growth in the atmospheric burden. Our findings point to growing N2O emissions in emerging economies—particularly Brazil, China and India. Analysis of process-based model estimates reveals an emerging N2O–climate feedback resulting from interactions between nitrogen additions and climate change. The recent growth in N2O emissions exceeds some of the highest projected emission scenarios3,4, underscoring the urgency to mitigate N2O emissions.

Description: Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a long-lived potent greenhouse gas and stratospheric ozone-depleting substance, which has been accumulating in the atmosphere since the pre-industrial period. The mole fraction of atmospheric N2O has increased by nearly 25 % from 270 parts per billion (ppb) in 1750 to 336 ppb in 2022, with the fastest annual growth rate since 1980 of more than 1.3 ppb yr-1 in both 2020 and 2021. As a core component of our global greenhouse gas assessments coordinated by the Global Carbon Project (GCP), we present a global N2O budget that incorporates both natural and anthropogenic sources and sinks, and accounts for the interactions between nitrogen additions and the biochemical processes that control N2O emissions. We use Bottom-Up (BU: inventory, statistical extrapolation of flux measurements, process-based land and ocean modelling) and Top-Down (TD: atmospheric measurement-based inversion) approaches. We provide a comprehensive quantification of global N2O sources and sinks in 21 natural and anthropogenic categories in 18 regions between 1980 and 2020. We estimate that total annual anthropogenic N2O emissions increased 40 % (or 1.9 Tg N yr-1) in the past four decades (1980–2020). Direct agricultural emissions in 2020, 3.9 Tg N yr−1 (best estimate) represent the large majority of anthropogenic emissions, followed by other direct anthropogenic sources (including ‘Fossil fuel and industry’, ‘Waste and wastewater’, and ‘Biomass burning’ (2.1 Tg N yr−1), and indirect anthropogenic sources (1.3 Tg N yr−1). For the year 2020, our best estimate of total BU emissions for natural and anthropogenic sources was 18.3 (lower-upper bounds: 10.5–27.0) Tg N yr-1, close to our TD estimate of 17.0 (16.6–17.4) Tg N yr-1. For the period 2010–2019, the annual BU decadal-average emissions for natural plus anthropogenic sources were 18.1 (10.4–25.9) Tg N yr-1 and TD emissions were 17.4 (15.8–19.20 Tg N yr-1. The once top emitter Europe has reduced its emissions since the 1980s by 31 % while those of emerging economies have grown, making China the top emitter since the 2010s. The observed atmospheric N2O concentrations in recent years have exceeded projected levels under all scenarios in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), underscoring the urgency to reduce anthropogenic N2O emissions. To evaluate mitigation efforts and contribute to the Global Stocktake of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, we propose establishing a global network for monitoring and modeling N2O from the surface through the stratosphere. The data presented in this work can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.18160/RQ8P-2Z4R (Tian et al. 2023).