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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Future changes in climate, ocean circulation, ecosystems, and biogeochemical cycling simulated for a business-as-usual CO2 emission scenario until year 4000 AD (2008)
    Associated volumes
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    In: Global biogeochemical cycles, Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, 1987, 22(2008), 1944-9224
    In: volume:22
    In: year:2008
    In: extent:21
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    Pages: 21
    ISSN: 1944-9224
    Language: English
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  • 2
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    Non-CO2 forcing changes will likely decrease the remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C (2020)
    In:  [Talk] In: EGU General Assembly 2020, 03.05.-08.05.2020, Online .
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-07-07
    Description: Estimates of the 1.5°C carbon budget vary widely among recent studies. One key contribution to this range is the non-CO2 climate forcing scenario uncertainty. Based on a partitioning of historical non-CO2 forcing, we show that there is currently a net negative non-CO2 forcing from fossil fuel combustion (FFC) mainly due to the co-emission of aerosols, and a net positive non-CO2 climate forcing from land-use change (LUC) and agricultural activities. We then perform a set of future simulations in which we prescribed a 1.5°C temperature stabilization trajectory, and diagnosed the resulting 1.5°C carbon budgets. Using the results of our historical partitioning, we prescribed changing non-CO2 forcing scenarios that are consistent with our model’s simulated decrease in FFC CO2 emissions. We compared the diagnosed carbon budgets from these idealized scenarios to those resulting from the default RCP scenario non-CO2 forcing, as well as from a scenario in which we assumed proportionality between future CO2 and non-CO2 forcing. We find a large range of carbon budget estimates across scenarios, with the largest budget emerging from the scenario with assumed proportionality of CO2 and non-CO2 forcing. Furthermore, our adjusted-RCP scenarios, in which the non-CO2 forcing is consistent with model-diagnosed FFC CO2 emissions, produced carbon budgets that are smaller than the corresponding default RCP scenarios. Our results suggest that ambitious mitigation scenarios will likely be characterized by an increasing contribution of non-CO2 forcing, and that an assumption of continued proportionality between CO2 and non-CO2 forcing would lead to an overestimate of the remaining carbon budget required to avoid low-temperature targets. Maintaining such proportionality under ambitious fossil fuel mitigation would require mitigation of non-CO2 emissions from agriculture and other non-FFC sources at a rate that is substantially faster than is found in the standard RCP scenarios.
    Type: Conference or Workshop Item , NonPeerReviewed
    Format: text
    DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-2194
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    OceanRep: Talk
  • 3
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    Non-CO2 forcing changes will likely decrease the remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C (2020)
    Nature Research
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-02-08
    Description: One key contribution to the wide range of 1.5 degrees C carbon budgets among recent studies is the non-CO2 climate forcing scenario uncertainty. Based on a partitioning of historical non-CO2 forcing, we show that currently there is a net negative non-CO2 forcing from fossil fuel combustion (FFC), and a net positive non-CO2 climate forcing from land-use change (LUC) and agricultural activities. We perform a set of future simulations in which we prescribed a 1.5 degrees C temperature stabilisation trajectory, and diagnosed the resulting 1.5 degrees C carbon budgets. Using the historical partitioning, we then prescribed adjusted non-CO2 forcing scenarios consistent with our model's simulated decrease in FFC CO2 emissions. We compared the diagnosed carbon budgets from these adjusted scenarios to those resulting from the default RCP scenario's non-CO2 forcing, and to a scenario in which proportionality between future CO2 and non-CO2 forcing is assumed. We find a wide range of carbon budget estimates across scenarios, with the largest budget emerging from the scenario with assumed proportionality of CO2 and non-CO2 forcing. Furthermore, our adjusted-RCP scenarios produce carbon budgets that are smaller than the corresponding default RCP scenarios. Our results suggest that ambitious mitigation scenarios will likely be characterised by an increasing contribution of non-CO2 forcing, and that an assumption of continued proportionality between CO2 and non-CO2 forcing would lead to an overestimate of the remaining carbon budget. Maintaining such proportionality under ambitious fossil fuel mitigation would require mitigation of non-CO2 emissions at a rate that is substantially faster than found in the standard RCP scenarios.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 4
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    Is there warming in the pipeline? A multi-model analysis of the Zero Emissions Commitment from CO2 (2020)
    Copernicus Publications (EGU)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-02-08
    Description: The Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) is the change in global mean temperature expected to occur following the cessation of net CO2 emissions and as such is a critical parameter for calculating the remaining carbon budget. The Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP) was established to gain a better understanding of the potential magnitude and sign of ZEC, in addition to the processes that underlie this metric. A total of 18 Earth system models of both full and intermediate complexity participated in ZECMIP. All models conducted an experiment where atmospheric CO2 concentration increases exponentially until 1000 PgC has been emitted. Thereafter emissions are set to zero and models are configured to allow free evolution of atmospheric CO2 concentration. Many models conducted additional second-priority simulations with different cumulative emission totals and an alternative idealized emissions pathway with a gradual transition to zero emissions. The inter-model range of ZEC 50 years after emissions cease for the 1000 PgC experiment is −0.36 to 0.29 ∘C, with a model ensemble mean of −0.07 ∘C, median of −0.05 ∘C, and standard deviation of 0.19 ∘C. Models exhibit a wide variety of behaviours after emissions cease, with some models continuing to warm for decades to millennia and others cooling substantially. Analysis shows that both the carbon uptake by the ocean and the terrestrial biosphere are important for counteracting the warming effect from the reduction in ocean heat uptake in the decades after emissions cease. This warming effect is difficult to constrain due to high uncertainty in the efficacy of ocean heat uptake. Overall, the most likely value of ZEC on multi-decadal timescales is close to zero, consistent with previous model experiments and simple theory.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 5
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    Opportunities and challenges in using remaining carbon budgets to guide climate policy (2020)
    Nature Research
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-02-08
    Description: The remaining carbon budget represents the total amount of CO2 that can still be emitted in the future while limiting global warming to a given temperature target. Remaining carbon budget estimates range widely, however, and this uncertainty can be used to either trivialize the most ambitious mitigation targets by characterizing them as impossible, or to argue that there is ample time to allow for a gradual transition to a low-carbon economy. Neither of these extremes is consistent with our best understanding of the policy implications of remaining carbon budgets. Understanding the scientific and socio-economic uncertainties affecting the size of the remaining carbon budgets, as well as the methodological choices and assumptions that underlie their calculation, is essential before applying them as a policy tool. Here we provide recommendations on how to calculate remaining carbon budgets in a traceable and transparent way, and discuss their uncertainties and implications for both international and national climate policies.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 6
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    Evaluation of the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model version 2.10 (UVic ESCM 2.10) (2020)
    Copernicus Publications (EGU)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-02-08
    Description: The University of Victoria Earth system climate model of intermediate complexity has been a useful tool in recent assessments of long-term climate changes including paleo-climate modelling. Since the last official release of the UVic ESCM 2.9, and the two official updates during the last decade, a lot of model development has taken place in multiple groups. The new version 2.10 of the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM), to be used in the 6th phase of the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP6), presented here combines and brings together multiple model developments and new components that have taken place since the last official release of the model. To set the foundation of its use, we here describe the UVic ESCM 2.10 and evaluate results from transient historical simulations against observational data. We find that the UVic ESCM 2.10 is capable of reproducing well changes in historical temperature and carbon fluxes, as well as the spatial distribution of many ocean tracers, including temperature, salinity, phosphate and nitrate. This is connected to a good representation of ocean physical properties. For the moment, there remain biases in ocean alkalinity and dissolved inorganic carbon, which will be addressed in the next updates to the model.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 7
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    Exposure to excessive heat and impacts on labour productivity linked to cumulative CO2 emissions (2019)
    Nature Research
    In:  Scientific Reports, 9 (1). Art.Nr. 13711.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-01-31
    Description: Cumulative CO2 emissions are a robust predictor of mean temperature increase. However, many societal impacts are driven by exposure to extreme weather conditions. Here, we show that cumulative emissions can be robustly linked to regional changes of a heat exposure indicator, as well as the resulting socioeconomic impacts associated with labour productivity loss in vulnerable economic sectors. We estimate historical and future increases in heat exposure using simulations from eight Earth System Models. Both the global intensity and spatial pattern of heat exposure evolve linearly with cumulative emissions across scenarios (1% CO2, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The pattern of heat exposure at a given level of global temperature increase is strongly affected by non-CO2 forcing. Global non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions amplify heat exposure, while high local emissions of aerosols could moderate exposure. Considering CO2 forcing only, we commit ourselves to an additional annual loss of labour productivity of about 2% of total GDP per unit of trillion tonne of carbon emitted. This loss doubles when adding non-CO2 forcing of the RCP8.5 scenario. This represents an additional economic loss of about 4,400 G$ every year (i.e. 0.59 $/tCO2), varying across countries with generally higher impact in lower-income countries.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-50047-w
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 8
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    The Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP) contribution to C4MIP: quantifying committed climate changes following zero carbon emissions (2019)
    Copernicus Publications (EGU)
    In:  Geoscientific Model Development, 12 (10). pp. 4375-4385.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-01-31
    Description: The amount of additional future temperature change following a complete cessation of CO2 emissions is a measure of the unrealized warming to which we are committed due to CO2 already emitted to the atmosphere. This "zero emissions commitment" (ZEC) is also an important quantity when estimating the remaining carbon budget - a limit on the total amount of CO2 emissions consistent with limiting global mean temperature at a particular level. In the recent IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 degrees C, the carbon budget framework used to calculate the remaining carbon budget for 1.5 degrees C included the assumption that the ZEC due to CO2 emissions is negligible and close to zero. Previous research has shown significant uncertainty even in the sign of the ZEC. To close this knowledge gap, we propose the Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP), which will quantify the amount of unrealized temperature change that occurs after CO2 emissions cease and investigate the geophysical drivers behind this climate response. Quantitative information on ZEC is a key gap in our knowledge, and one that will not be addressed by currently planned CMIP6 simulations, yet it is crucial for verifying whether carbon budgets need to be adjusted to account for any unrealized temperature change resulting from past CO2 emissions. We request only one top-priority simulation from comprehensive general circulation Earth system models (ESMs) and Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) - a branch from the 1% CO2 run with CO2 emissions set to zero at the point of 1000 PgC of total CO2 emissions in the simulation - with the possibility for additional simulations, if resources allow. ZECMIP is part of CMIP6, under joint sponsorship by C4MIP and CDR-MIP, with associated experiment names to enable data submissions to the Earth System Grid Federation. All data will be published and made freely available.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: text
    DOI: 10.5194/gmd-12-4375-2019
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 9
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    1.5°C carbon budget dependent on carbon cycle uncertainty and future non-CO2 forcing (2018)
    Nature Research
    In:  Scientific Reports, 8 (1). Art.Nr. 5831.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-02-08
    Description: Estimates of the 1.5 °C carbon budget vary widely among recent studies, emphasizing the need to better understand and quantify key sources of uncertainty. Here we quantify the impact of carbon cycle uncertainty and non-CO2 forcing on the 1.5 °C carbon budget in the context of a prescribed 1.5 °C temperature stabilization scenario. We use Bayes theorem to weight members of a perturbed parameter ensemble with varying land and ocean carbon uptake, to derive an estimate for the fossil fuel (FF) carbon budget of 469 PgC since 1850, with a 95% likelihood range of (411,528) PgC. CO2 emissions from land-use change (LUC) add about 230 PgC. Our best estimate of the total (FF + LUC) carbon budget for 1.5 °C is therefore 699 PgC, which corresponds to about 11 years of current emissions. Non-CO2 greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions represent equivalent cumulative CO2 emissions of about 510 PgC and −180 PgC for 1.5 °C, respectively. The increased LUC, high non-CO2 emissions and decreased aerosols in our scenario, cause the long-term FF carbon budget to decrease following temperature stabilization. In this scenario, negative emissions would be required to compensate not only for the increasing non-CO2 climate forcing, but also for the declining natural carbon sinks.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    DOI: 10.1038/s41598-018-24241-1
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 10
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    Using cumulative carbon budgets and corporate carbon disclosure to inform ambitious corporate emissions targets and long‐term mitigation pathways (2022)
    Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: With increasing pressure for climate action, commitments to setting scientifically supported emissions targets have become more common among firms. The target-setting methods currently endorsed by the Science Based Targets Initiative (SBTi) use emission pathways that are aligned with 1.5°C and well-below 2°C long-term temperature goals to inform near-term corporate targets. However, most of these scenarios lead to a temperature overshoot, followed by a return to the temperature goal achieved via net-negative emissions in the second half of this century. When used to inform near-term (e.g., 2030) corporate targets, the result is a set of targets that are aligned with an overshoot of a temperature target, with no explicit long-term commitment to using negative emissions technologies to reverse this. To decrease the risk of this misalignment with the long-term temperature goal, we propose an alternative approach that derives corporate targets directly from the remaining global cumulative carbon budget. We illustrate this approach using global Scope 1 emissions disclosed by public firms in 2019 to estimate corporate carbon budgets and construct idealized emissions-reduction pathways that are consistent with the remaining global carbon budget for 1.5°C and well-below 2°C. While firms, or their sectors, may choose varying mitigation pathways aligned with either global temperature limit, consistency with remaining carbon budgets requires that any delayed mitigation action in the near term is followed by more rapid emissions reductions in subsequent years. This study emphasizes the need for a more precautionary and robust approach to corporate target setting.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
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