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  • 1
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    Decadal changes in zooplankton of the Northeast U.S. continental shelf (2014)
    Public Library of Science
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: This article is distributed under the Creative Commons CC0 public domain dedication. The definitive version was published in PLoS One 9 (2014): e87720, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0087720.
    Description: The abundance of the subarctic copepod, Calanus finmarchicus, and temperate, shelf copepod, Centropages typicus, was estimated from samples collected bi-monthly over the Northeast U.S. continental shelf (NEUS) from 1977–2010. Latitudinal variation in long term trends and seasonal patterns for the two copepod species were examined for four sub-regions: the Gulf of Maine (GOM), Georges Bank (GB), Southern New England (SNE), and Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB). Results suggested that there was significant difference in long term variation between northern region (GOM and GB), and the MAB for both species. C. finmarchicus generally peaked in May – June throughout the entire study region and Cen. typicus had a more complex seasonal pattern. Time series analysis revealed that the peak time for Cen. typicus switched from November – December to January - March after 1985 in the MAB. The long term abundance of C. finmarchicus showed more fluctuation in the MAB than the GOM and GB, whereas the long term abundance of Cen. typicus was more variable in the GB than other sub-regions. Alongshore transport was significantly correlated with the abundance of C. finmarchicus, i.e., more water from north, higher abundance for C. finmarchicus. The abundance of Cen. typicus showed positive relationship with the Gulf Stream north wall index (GSNWI) in the GOM and GB, but the GSNWI only explained 12–15% of variation in Cen. typicus abundance. In general, the alongshore current was negatively correlated with the GSNWI, suggesting that Cen. typicus is more abundant when advection from the north is less. However, the relationship between Cen. typicus and alongshore transport was not significant. The present study highlights the importance of spatial scales in the study of marine populations: observed long term changes in the northern region were different from the south for both species.
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 2
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    Biogeographic responses of the copepod Calanus glacialis to a changing Arctic marine environment (2017)
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    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2017. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here under a nonexclusive, irrevocable, paid-up, worldwide license granted to WHOI. It is made available for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Change Biology 24 (2018): e159-e170, doi:10.1111/gcb.13890.
    Description: Dramatic changes have occurred in the Arctic Ocean over the past few decades, especially in terms of sea ice loss and ocean warming. Those environmental changes may modify the planktonic ecosystem with changes from lower to upper trophic levels. This study aimed to understand how the biogeographic distribution of a crucial endemic copepod species, Calanus glacialis, may respond to both abiotic (ocean temperature) and biotic (phytoplankton prey) drivers. A copepod individual-based model coupled to an ice-ocean-biogeochemical model was utilized to simulate temperature- and food-dependent life cycle development of C. glacialis annually from 1980 to 2014. Over the 35-year study period, the northern boundaries of modeled diapausing C. glacialis expanded poleward and the annual success rates of C. glacialis individuals attaining diapause in a circumpolar transition zone increased substantially. Those patterns could be explained by a lengthening growth season (during which time food is ample) and shortening critical development time (the period from the first feeding stage N3 to the diapausing stage C4). The biogeographic changes were further linked to large scale oceanic processes, particularly diminishing sea ice cover, upper ocean warming, and increasing and prolonging food availability, which could have potential consequences to the entire Arctic shelf/slope marine ecosystems.
    Description: This study was funded by National Science Foundation Arctic System Science (ARCSS) Program (PLR-1417677, PLR-1417339, and PLR-1416920).
    Keywords: Arctic Ocean ; Marine ecosystem ; Climate change ; Copepod ; Biogeography ; Ocean warming ; Poleward range shift ; Individual-based model
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 3
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    Pan-Antarctic analysis aggregating spatial estimates of Adélie penguin abundance reveals robust dynamics despite stochastic noise (2017)
    Nature Publishing Group
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    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: © The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Nature Communications 8 (2017): 832, doi:10.1038/s41467-017-00890-0.
    Description: Colonially-breeding seabirds have long served as indicator species for the health of the oceans on which they depend. Abundance and breeding data are repeatedly collected at fixed study sites in the hopes that changes in abundance and productivity may be useful for adaptive management of marine resources, but their suitability for this purpose is often unknown. To address this, we fit a Bayesian population dynamics model that includes process and observation error to all known Adélie penguin abundance data (1982–2015) in the Antarctic, covering 〉95% of their population globally. We find that process error exceeds observation error in this system, and that continent-wide “year effects” strongly influence population growth rates. Our findings have important implications for the use of Adélie penguins in Southern Ocean feedback management, and suggest that aggregating abundance across space provides the fastest reliable signal of true population change for species whose dynamics are driven by stochastic processes.
    Description: H.J.L., C.C.-C., G.H., C.Y., and K.T.S. gratefully acknowledge funding provided by US National Aeronautics and Space Administration Award No. NNX14AC32G and U.S. National Science Foundation Office of Polar Programs Award No. NSF/OPP-1255058. S.J., L.L., M.M.H., Y.L., and R.J. gratefully acknowledge funding provided by US National Aeronautics and Space Administration Award No. NNX14AH74G. H.J.L., C.Y., S.J., Y.L., and R.J. gratefully acknowledge funding provided by U.S. National Science Foundation Office of Polar Programs Award No. NSF/PLR-1341548. S.J. gratefully acknowledges support from the Dalio Explore Fund.
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  • 4
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    Initial spread of 137Cs from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant over the Japan continental shelf : a study using a high-resolution, global-coastal nested ocean model (2013)
    Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union
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    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: © The Author(s), 2013. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Biogeosciences 10 (2013): 5439-5449, doi:10.5194/bg-10-5439-2013.
    Description: The 11 March 2011 tsunami triggered by the M9 and M7.9 earthquakes off the Tōhoku coast destroyed facilities at the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (FNPP) leading to a significant long-term flow of the radionuclide 137Cs into coastal waters. A high-resolution, global-coastal nested ocean model was first constructed to simulate the 11 March tsunami and coastal inundation. Based on the model's success in reproducing the observed tsunami and coastal inundation, model experiments were then conducted with differing grid resolution to assess the initial spread of 137Cs over the eastern shelf of Japan. The 137Cs was tracked as a conservative tracer (without radioactive decay) in the three-dimensional model flow field over the period of 26 March–31 August 2011. The results clearly show that for the same 137Cs discharge, the model-predicted spreading of 137Cs was sensitive not only to model resolution but also the FNPP seawall structure. A coarse-resolution (∼2 km) model simulation led to an overestimation of lateral diffusion and thus faster dispersion of 137Cs from the coast to the deep ocean, while advective processes played a more significant role when the model resolution at and around the FNPP was refined to ∼5 m. By resolving the pathways from the leaking source to the southern and northern discharge canals, the high-resolution model better predicted the 137Cs spreading in the inner shelf where in situ measurements were made at 30 km off the coast. The overestimation of 137Cs concentration near the coast is thought to be due to the omission of sedimentation and biogeochemical processes as well as uncertainties in the amount of 137Cs leaking from the source in the model. As a result, a biogeochemical module should be included in the model for more realistic simulations of the fate and spreading of 137Cs in the ocean.
    Description: This project was supported by the US National Science Foundation RAPID grants No. 1141697 and No. 1141785 and the Japan Science and Technology Agency J-RAPID program. The development of Global-FVCOM was supported by NSF grants ARC0712903, ARC0732084, and ARC0804029. Z. Lai’s contribution was supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China project 41206005, China MOST project 2012CB956004, and Sun Yat-Sen University 985 grant 42000-3281301. C. Chen serves as chief scientist for the International Center for Marine Studies, Shanghai Ocean University, and his contribution was supported by the Program of Science and Technology Commission of Shanghai Municipality (09320503700).
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 5
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    Climate impacts on zooplankton population dynamics in coastal marine ecosystems (2014)
    The Oceanography Society
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    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © The Oceanography Society, 2013. This article is posted here by permission of The Oceanography Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Oceanography 26, no. 4 (2013): 34–51, doi:10.5670/oceanog.2013.74.
    Description: The 20-year US GLOBEC (Global Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics) program examined zooplankton populations and their predators in four coastal marine ecosystems. Program scientists learned that environmental controls on zooplankton vital rates, especially the timing and magnitude of reproduction, growth, life-cycle progression, and mortality, determine species population dynamics, seasonal and spatial distributions, and abundances. Improved knowledge of spatial-temporal abundance and distribution of individual zooplankton taxa coupled with new information linking higher trophic level predators (salmon, cod, haddock, penguins, seals) to their prey yielded mechanistic descriptions of how climate variation impacts regionally important marine resources. Coupled ecological models driven by improved regional-scale climate scenario models developed during GLOBEC enable forecasts of plausible future conditions in coastal ecosystems, and will aid and inform decision makers and communities as they assess, respond, and adapt to the effects of environmental change. Multi-region synthesis revealed that conditions in winter, before upwelling, or seasonal stratification, or ice melt (depending on region) had significant and important effects that primed the systems for greater zooplankton population abundance and productivity the following spring-summer, with effects that propagated to higher trophic levels.
    Description: For support in the preparation of this manuscript, HPB and WTP acknowledge OCE-0816358; KLD acknowledges OPP-9910610, OPP-0196489, and OCE-0814405; CSD and RJ acknowledge NA17RJ1223 and OCE-0815838; MDO acknowledges the California Current Ecosystem LTER site; and JAR acknowledges OCE-1235920.
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 6
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    Spring bloom dynamics and zooplankton biomass response on the US Northeast Continental Shelf (2015)
    Elsevier
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    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: This paper is not subject to U.S. copyright. The definitive version was published in Continental Shelf Research 102 (2015): 47-61, doi:10.1016/j.csr.2015.04.005.
    Description: The spring phytoplankton bloom on the US Northeast Continental Shelf is a feature of the ecosystem production cycle that varies annually in timing, spatial extent, and magnitude. To quantify this variability, we analyzed remotely-sensed ocean color data at two spatial scales, one based on ecologically defined sub-units of the ecosystem (production units) and the other on a regular grid (0.5°). Five units were defined: Gulf of Maine East and West, Georges Bank, and Middle Atlantic Bight North and South. The units averaged 47×103 km2 in size. The initiation and termination of the spring bloom were determined using change-point analysis with constraints on what was identified as a bloom based on climatological bloom patterns. A discrete spring bloom was detected in most years over much of the western Gulf of Maine production unit. However, bloom frequency declined in the eastern Gulf of Maine and transitioned to frequencies as low as 50% along the southern flank of the Georges Bank production unit. Detectable spring blooms were episodic in the Middle Atlantic Bight production units. In the western Gulf of Maine, bloom duration was inversely related to bloom start day; thus, early blooms tended to be longer lasting and larger magnitude blooms. We view this as a phenological mismatch between bloom timing and the “top-down” grazing pressure that terminates a bloom. Estimates of secondary production were available from plankton surveys that provided spring indices of zooplankton biovolume. Winter chlorophyll biomass had little effect on spring zooplankton biovolume, whereas spring chlorophyll biomass had mixed effects on biovolume. There was evidence of a “bottom up” response seen on Georges Bank where spring zooplankton biovolume was positively correlated with the concentration of chlorophyll. However, in the western Gulf of Maine, biovolume was uncorrelated with chlorophyll concentration, but was positively correlated with bloom start and negatively correlated with magnitude. This observation is consistent with both a “top-down” mechanism of control of the bloom and a “bottom-up” effect of bloom timing on zooplankton grazing. Our inability to form a consistent model of these relationships across adjacent systems underscores the need for further research.
    Keywords: Spring bloom ; US Northeast Shelf ; Zooplankton biomass ; Bloom timing ; Climate
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 7
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    Marine plankton phenology and life history in a changing climate : current research and future directions (2010)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: © The Authors, 2010. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial License. The definitive version was published in Journal of Plankton Research 32 (2010): 1355-1368, doi:10.1093/plankt/fbq062.
    Description: Increasing availability and extent of biological ocean time series (from both in situ and satellite data) have helped reveal significant phenological variability of marine plankton. The extent to which the range of this variability is modified as a result of climate change is of obvious importance. Here we summarize recent research results on phenology of both phytoplankton and zooplankton. We suggest directions to better quantify and monitor future plankton phenology shifts, including (i) examining the main mode of expected future changes (ecological shifts in timing and spatial distribution to accommodate fixed environmental niches vs. evolutionary adaptation of timing controls to maintain fixed biogeography and seasonality), (ii) broader understanding of phenology at the species and community level (e.g. for zooplankton beyond Calanus and for phytoplankton beyond chlorophyll), (iii) improving and diversifying statistical metrics for indexing timing and trophic synchrony and (iv) improved consideration of spatio-temporal scales and the Lagrangian nature of plankton assemblages to separate time from space changes.
    Description: This study was supported by NSF grants to R.J.: OCE-0727033, 0815838 and 0732152. NSF grants to A.C.T.: OCE-0535386, 0815051 and 0814413. NSF grant to J.A.R.: OCE 0815336.
    Keywords: Plankton ; Phenology ; Life history ; Climate change
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 8
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    Remote climate forcing of decadal-scale regime shifts in Northwest Atlantic shelf ecosystems (2014)
    Association for the Sciences of Limnology and Oceanography
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    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © Association for the Sciences of Limnology and Oceanography, 2013. This article is posted here by permission of Association for the Sciences of Limnology and Oceanography for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Association for the Sciences of Limnology and Oceanography, doi:10.4319/lo.2013.58.3.0803.
    Description: Decadal-scale regime shifts in Northwest Atlantic shelf ecosystems can be remotely forced by climate-associated atmosphere–ocean interactions in the North Atlantic and Arctic Ocean Basins. This remote climate forcing is mediated primarily by basin- and hemispheric-scale changes in ocean circulation. We review and synthesize results from process-oriented field studies and retrospective analyses of time-series data to document the linkages between climate, ocean circulation, and ecosystem dynamics. Bottom-up forcing associated with climate plays a prominent role in the dynamics of these ecosystems, comparable in importance to that of top-down forcing associated with commercial fishing. A broad perspective, one encompassing the effects of basin- and hemispheric-scale climate processes on marine ecosystems, will be critical to the sustainable management of marine living resources in the Northwest Atlantic.
    Description: Funding for this research was provided by the National Science Foundation as part of the Regional and Pan-Regional Synthesis Phases of the U.S. Global Ocean Ecosystem (GLOBEC) Program.
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 9
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    Interannual differences in larval haddock survival : hypothesis testing with a 3D biophysical model of Georges Bank (2015)
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    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2014. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of John Wiley & Sons for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Fisheries Oceanography 23 (2014): 521–553, doi:10.1111/fog.12087.
    Description: The ultimate goal of early life studies of fish over the past century has been to better understand recruitment variability. As evident in the Georges Bank haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus) population, there is a strong relationship between recruitment success and processes occurring during the planktonic larval stage. This research sought new insights into the mechanisms controlling the recruitment process in fish populations by using biological-physical modeling methods together with laboratory and field data sets. We created the first three-dimensional model of larval haddock on Georges Bank by coupling models of hydrodynamics, lower trophic levels, a single copepod species, and larval haddock. Interactions between feeding, metabolism, growth, vertical behavior, advection, predation, and the physical environment of larval haddock were quantitatively investigated using the coupled models. Particularly, the model was used to compare survival over the larval period and the sources of mortality in 1995 and 1998, two years of disparate haddock recruitment. The results of model simulations suggest that the increased egg hatching rates and higher food availability, which reduced starvation and predation, in 1998 contributed to its larger year-class. Additionally, the inclusion of temperature-dependent predation rates produced model results that better agreed with observations of the mean hatch date of survivors. The results from this biophysical model imply that food-limitation and its related losses to starvation and predation, especially from hatch to 7 mm, may be responsible for interannual variability in recruitment and larval survival outside of the years studied.
    Description: Financial support was provided by a WHOI Watson Fellowship, a WHOI Coastal Ocean Institute Student Research Proposal Award, and GLOBEC grants NA17RJ1223 (NOAA) and OCE0815838 (NSF).
    Description: 2015-11-15
    Keywords: Larval fish ; Individual-based model ; Recruitment ; GLOBEC
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 10
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    Responses of summer phytoplankton biomass to changes in top-down forcing : insights from comparative modelling (2018)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2018. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here under a nonexclusive, irrevocable, paid-up, worldwide license granted to WHOI. It is made available for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Ecological Modelling 376 (2018): 54-67, doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2018.03.003.
    Description: The present study describes the responses of summer phytoplankton biomass to changes in top-down forcing (expressed as zooplankton mortality) in three ecosystems (the North Sea, the Baltic Sea and the Nordic Seas) across different 3D ecosystem models. In each of the model set-ups, we applied the same changes in the magnitude of mortality (±20%) of the highest trophic zooplankton level (Z1). Model results showed overall dampened responses of phytoplankton relative to Z1 biomass. Phytoplankton responses varied depending on the food web structure and trophic coupling represented in the models. Hence, a priori model assumptions were found to influence cascades and pathways in model estimates and, thus, become highly relevant when examining ecosystem pressures such as fishing and climate change. Especially, the different roles and parameterizations of additional zooplankton groups grazed by Z1, and their importance for the outcome, emphasized the need for better calibration data. Spatial variability was high within each model indicating that physics (hydrodynamics and temperature) and nutrient dynamics also play vital roles for ecosystem responses to top-down effects. In conclusion, the model comparison indicated that changes in top-down forcing in combination with the modelled food-web structure affect summer phytoplankton biomass and, thereby, indirectly influence water quality of the systems.
    Description: The work was supported by the EU grant “Vectors of Change in Oceans and Seas, Marine Life, Impact and Economic Sectors” (Vectors, FP7/2010-2013) and The Danish Council for Strategic Research to the project “Integrated Management of Agriculture, Fishery, Environment and Economy” (IMAGE, grant no. 09-067259).
    Keywords: Plankton functional types ; Trophic cascades ; Zooplankton mortality ; Phytoplankton ; Ensemble modelling
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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