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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2015-10-05
    Description: The invasive ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi has been reported in various coastal locations in the southern North Sea in the past years. Since 2009, International Bottom Trawl Surveys have recorded this species each winter in open waters. As this species,wellknown for its dramatic disturbance of ecosystems, was expected not to be able to overwinter offshore it is crucial to understand its distribution dynamics. Two modelling methods, a quantile regression and a particle tracking model, were used (1) to identify habitats where the invasive ctenophore M. leidyi could survive the North Sea cold winters and (2) to investigate the dispersal of individuals between these different habitats, emphasizing favorable areas where sustainable populations could have been established. Temperature was found to be the crucial factor controlling the winter distribution of M. leidyi in the North Sea. High abundance predictions in winter were associated with low values of temperature, which characterise south-eastern coastal areas and estuaries influenced by riverine runoff. A retention-based M. leidyi population was indicated along the northern Dutch coast and German Bight and a transport-based population offshore from the western Danish coast. Individuals found in the open waters were transported from southern coasts of the North Sea, thus the open water population densities depend on the flux of offspring from these areas. This study provides the first estimates of the overwinter areas of this invasive species over the cold winters in the North Sea. Based on the agreement of habitat and dispersal model results, we conclude that M. leidyi has become established along south-eastern coasts of the North Sea where the environment conditions allows overwintering and it can be retained for later blooms.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2018. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here under a nonexclusive, irrevocable, paid-up, worldwide license granted to WHOI. It is made available for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Ecological Modelling 376 (2018): 54-67, doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2018.03.003.
    Description: The present study describes the responses of summer phytoplankton biomass to changes in top-down forcing (expressed as zooplankton mortality) in three ecosystems (the North Sea, the Baltic Sea and the Nordic Seas) across different 3D ecosystem models. In each of the model set-ups, we applied the same changes in the magnitude of mortality (±20%) of the highest trophic zooplankton level (Z1). Model results showed overall dampened responses of phytoplankton relative to Z1 biomass. Phytoplankton responses varied depending on the food web structure and trophic coupling represented in the models. Hence, a priori model assumptions were found to influence cascades and pathways in model estimates and, thus, become highly relevant when examining ecosystem pressures such as fishing and climate change. Especially, the different roles and parameterizations of additional zooplankton groups grazed by Z1, and their importance for the outcome, emphasized the need for better calibration data. Spatial variability was high within each model indicating that physics (hydrodynamics and temperature) and nutrient dynamics also play vital roles for ecosystem responses to top-down effects. In conclusion, the model comparison indicated that changes in top-down forcing in combination with the modelled food-web structure affect summer phytoplankton biomass and, thereby, indirectly influence water quality of the systems.
    Description: The work was supported by the EU grant “Vectors of Change in Oceans and Seas, Marine Life, Impact and Economic Sectors” (Vectors, FP7/2010-2013) and The Danish Council for Strategic Research to the project “Integrated Management of Agriculture, Fishery, Environment and Economy” (IMAGE, grant no. 09-067259).
    Keywords: Plankton functional types ; Trophic cascades ; Zooplankton mortality ; Phytoplankton ; Ensemble modelling
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Preprint
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2018-03-21
    Description: Stock‐based and ecosystem‐based indicators are used to provide a new diagnosis of the fishing impact and environmental status of European seas. In the seven European marine ecosystems covering the Baltic and the North‐east Atlantic, (i) trends in landings since 1950 were examined; (ii) syntheses of the status and trends in fish stocks were consolidated at the ecosystem level; and (iii) trends in ecosystem indicators based on landings and surveys were analysed. We show that yields began to decrease everywhere (except in the Baltic) from the mid‐1970s, as a result of the over‐exploitation of some major stocks. Fishermen adapted by increasing fishing effort and exploiting a wider part of the ecosystems. This was insufficient to compensate for the decrease in abundance of many stocks, and total landings have halved over the last 30 years. The highest fishing impact took place in the late 1990s, with a clear decrease in stock‐based and ecosystem indicators. In particular, trophic‐based indicators exhibited a continuous decreasing trend in almost all ecosystems. Over the past decade, a decrease in fishing pressure has been observed, the mean fishing mortality rate of assessed stocks being almost halved in all the considered ecosystems, but no clear recovery in the biomass and ecosystem indicators is yet apparent. In addition, the mean recruitment index was shown to decrease by around 50% in all ecosystems (except the Baltic). We conclude that building this kind of diagnosis is a key step on the path to implementing an ecosystem approach to fisheries management.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
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