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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: © The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Frontiers in Marine Science 4 (2017): 337, doi:10.3389/fmars.2017.00337.
    Description: The fishery for American lobster is currently the highest-valued commercial fishery in the United States, worth over US$620 million in dockside value in 2015. During a marine heat wave in 2012, the fishery was disrupted by the early warming of spring ocean temperatures and subsequent influx of lobster landings. This situation resulted in a price collapse, as the supply chain was not prepared for the early and abundant landings of lobsters. Motivated by this series of events, we have developed a forecast of when the Maine (USA) lobster fishery will shift into its high volume summer landings period. The forecast uses a regression approach to relate spring ocean temperatures derived from four NERACOOS buoys along the coast of Maine to the start day of the high landings period of the fishery. Tested against conditions in past years, the forecast is able to predict the start day to within 1 week of the actual start, and the forecast can be issued 3–4 months prior to the onset of the high-landings period, providing valuable lead-time for the fishery and its associated supply chain to prepare for the upcoming season. Forecast results are conveyed in a probabilistic manner and are updated weekly over a 6-week forecasting period so that users can assess the certainty and consistency of the forecast and factor the uncertainty into their use of the information in a given year. By focusing on the timing of events, this type of seasonal forecast provides climate-relevant information to users at time scales that are meaningful for operational decisions. As climate change alters seasonal phenology and reduces the reliability of past experience as a guide for future expectations, this type of forecast can enable fishing industry participants to better adjust to and prepare for operating in the context of climate change.
    Description: This forecast was initiated with support from NSF Coastal SEES (OCE 1325484) and was developed with funds from NASA EPSCoR through Maine Space Grant Consortium (EP-15-03).
    Keywords: Seasonal forecast ; Temperature ; Fishery landings ; Lobster fishery ; Climate variability
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2022-10-27
    Description: © The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in MBL Hernandez, C. M., van Daalen, S. F., Caswell, H., Neubert, M. G., & Gribble, K. E. A demographic and evolutionary analysis of maternal effect senescence. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 17(28), (2020):16431-16437, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1919988117.
    Description: Maternal effect senescence—a decline in offspring survival or fertility with maternal age—has been demonstrated in many taxa, including humans. Despite decades of phenotypic studies, questions remain about how maternal effect senescence impacts evolutionary fitness. To understand the influence of maternal effect senescence on population dynamics, fitness, and selection, we developed matrix population models in which individuals are jointly classified by age and maternal age. We fit these models to data from individual-based culture experiments on the aquatic invertebrate, Brachionus manjavacas (Rotifera). By comparing models with and without maternal effects, we found that maternal effect senescence significantly reduces fitness for B. manjavacas and that this decrease arises primarily through reduced fertility, particularly at maternal ages corresponding to peak reproductive output. We also used the models to estimate selection gradients, which measure the strength of selection, in both high growth rate (laboratory) and two simulated low growth rate environments. In all environments, selection gradients on survival and fertility decrease with increasing age. They also decrease with increasing maternal age for late maternal ages, implying that maternal effect senescence can evolve through the same process as in Hamilton’s theory of the evolution of age-related senescence. The models we developed are widely applicable to evaluate the fitness consequences of maternal effect senescence across species with diverse aging and fertility schedule phenotypes.
    Description: K.E.G. was supported by Grant 5K01AG049049 from the National Institute on Aging and by the Bay and Paul Foundations. H.C. and S.F.v.D. were supported by the European Research Council through Advanced Grants 322829 and 788195 and by the Dutch Research Council through Grant ALWOP.2015.100. C.M.H. was supported by a National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship. M.G.N. received funding from The Paul MacDonald Fye Chair for Excellence in Oceanography at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.
    Keywords: Aging ; Demography ; Fitness ; Maternal effects ; Selection gradients
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2022-10-27
    Description: © The Author(s), 2022. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in van Daalen, S. F., Hernandez, C. M., Caswell, H., Neubert, M. G., & Gribble, K. E. The contributions of maternal age heterogeneity to variance in lifetime reproductive output. American Naturalist,199(5), (2022): 603-616, https://doi.org/10.1086/718716.
    Description: Variance among individuals in fitness components reflects both genuine heterogeneity between individuals and stochasticity in events experienced along the life cycle. Maternal age represents a form of heterogeneity that affects both the mean and the variance of lifetime reproductive output (LRO). Here, we quantify the relative contribution of maternal age heterogeneity to the variance in LRO using individual-level laboratory data on the rotifer Brachionus manjavacas to parameterize a multistate age × maternal age matrix model. In B. manjavacas, advanced maternal age has large negative effects on offspring survival and fertility. We used multistate Markov chains with rewards to quantify the contributions to variance in LRO of heterogeneity and of the stochasticity inherent in the outcomes of probabilistic transitions and reproductive events. Under laboratory conditions, maternal age heterogeneity contributes 26% of the variance in LRO. The contribution changes when mortality and fertility are reduced to mimic more ecologically relevant environments. Over the parameter space where populations are near stationarity, maternal age heterogeneity contributes an average of 3% of the variance. Thus, the contributions of maternal age heterogeneity and individual stochasticity can be expected to depend strongly on environmental conditions; over most of the parameter space, the variance in LRO is dominated by stochasticity.
    Description: K.E.G. was supported by grant 5K01AG049049 from the National Institute on Aging, by National Science Foundation (NSF) CAREER grant IOS-1942606, and by the Bay and Paul Foundations. H.C. and S.F.v.D. were supported by the European Research Council through Advanced Grants 322829 and 788195 and by the Dutch Research Council through grant ALWOP.2015.100. S.F.v.D. was furthermore supported by the Postdoctoral Scholar Program at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, with funding provided by the Doherty Foundation. C.M.H. was supported by an NSF Graduate Research Fellowship. M.G.N. received funding from the Paul MacDonald Fye Chair for Excellence in Oceanography at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.
    Keywords: Lifetime reproductive output ; Maternal age effects ; Heterogeneity ; aging ; Rotifers
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 4
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    Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
    Publication Date: 2022-10-20
    Description: Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution February 2021.
    Description: The early life stages of marine fishes play a critical role in population dynamics, largely due to their high abundance, high mortality, and ease of transport in ocean currents. This dissertation demonstrates the value of combining larval data, collected in the field and the laboratory, with model simulations. In Chapter 2, analyses of field observations of ontogenetic vertical distributions of coral reef fish revealed a diversity of behaviors both between and within families. In Caribbean-wide particle-tracking simulations of representative behaviors, surface-dwelling larvae were generally transported longer distances with greater population connectivity amongst habitat patches, while the evenly-distributed vertical behavior and downward ontogenetic vertical migration were similar to one another and led to greater retention near natal sites. However, hydrodynamics and habitat vailability created some local patterns that contradicted the overall expectation. Chapter 3 presents evidence of tuna spawning inside a large no-take marine protected area, the Phoenix Islands Protected Area (PIPA). Despite variation in temperature and chlorophyll, the larval tuna distributions were similar amongst years, with skipjack (Katsuwonus pelamis) and Thunnus spp. tunas observed in all three years. Backtracking simulations indicated that spawning occurred inside PIPA in all 3 study years, demonstrating that PIPA is protecting viable tuna spawning habitat. In Chapter 4, several lines of larval evidence support the classification of the Slope Sea as a major spawning ground for Atlantic bluefin tuna with conditions suitable for larval growth. The abundance of bluefin tuna larvae observed in the Slope Sea aligns with typical observations on the other two spawning grounds. Age and growth analyses of bluefin tuna larvae collected in the Slope Sea and the Gulf of Mexico in 2016 did not show a growth rate difference between regions, but did suggest that Slope Sea larvae are larger at the onset of exogenous feeding. Collected larvae were backtracked to locations north of Cape Hatteras and forward tracked to show that they would have been retained within the Slope Sea until the onset of swimming. As a whole, this thesis presents valuable contributions to the study of larval fishes and the attendant implications for marine resource management.
    Description: National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship Program (to C.M.H.), the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Ocean Life Institute (Grant 22569.01 to J. Llopiz and C.M.H.), the Adelaide and Charles Link Foundation, the Phoenix Islands Protected Area Trust, the J. Seward Johnson Endowment in support of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution's Marine Policy Center, and the WHOI Academic Programs Office.
    Keywords: Marine protected area ; Trait-based ; Biophysical model
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Thesis
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2022-05-27
    Description: © The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Rypina, I. I., Dotzel, M. M., Pratt, L. J., Hernandez, C. M., & Llopiz, J. K. Exploring interannual variability in potential spawning habitat for Atlantic bluefin tuna in the Slope Sea. Progress in Oceanography, 192, (2021): 102514, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2021.102514.
    Description: The Slope Sea in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean, located between the Gulf Stream and the continental shelf of the Northeast United States, is a recently-documented possible major spawning ground for Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus). Larval surveys and a habitat modeling study have shown that suitable spawning habitat occurs in the Slope Sea, but the degree to which this habitat varies interannually is an open question. Here, we perform a decade-long (2009–2018) numerical modeling analysis, with simulated larvae released uniformly throughout the Slope Sea, to investigate the interannual variability in the water temperature and circulation criteria deemed necessary for successful spawning. We also quantify the influence of Gulf Stream meanders and overshoot events on larval retention and their effect on habitat suitability rates throughout the Slope Sea, defined as the percentage of simulated larvae released at a given location that satisfy criteria related to water temperature and retention near nursery habitat. Average environmental oceanographic conditions over the decade are most favorable in the western part of the Slope Sea, specifically in the Slope Gyre and away from the immediate vicinity of the Gulf Stream. Variability in domain- and summertime-averaged yearly spawning habitat suitability rates is up to 25% of the mean decadal-averaged values. Yearly habitat suitability correlates strongly with the Gulf Stream overshoot but does not correlate well with other oceanographic variables or indices, so an overshoot index can be used as a sole oceanographic proxy for predicting yearly bluefin spawning habitat suitability in the Slope Sea. Selective spawning can weaken the correlation between habitat suitability and Gulf Stream overshoot. Effort should be put towards collecting observational data against which we could validate our findings.
    Description: This work was funded by a US National Science Foundation (NSF) grant (OCE-1558806) awarded to IIR, LJP, and JKL. MMD was supported by an NSF Graduate Research Fellowship. CMH was partially supported by the Adelaide and Charles Link Foundation and the J. Seward Johnson Endowment in support of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution’s Marine Policy Center.
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2022-08-05
    Description: © The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Hernandez, C. M., Richardson, D. E., Rypina, I. I., Chen, K., Marancik, K. E., Shulzitski, K., & Llopiz, J. K. Support for the Slope Sea as a major spawning ground for Atlantic bluefin tuna: evidence from larval abundance, growth rates, and particle-tracking simulations. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 79(5), (2021): 814-824, https://doi.org/10.1139/cjfas-2020-0444.
    Description: Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) are commercially and ecologically valuable, but management is complicated by their highly migratory lifestyle. Recent collections of bluefin tuna larvae in the Slope Sea off northeastern United States have opened questions about how this region contributes to population dynamics. We analyzed larvae collected in the Slope Sea and the Gulf of Mexico in 2016 to estimate larval abundance and growth rates and used a high-resolution regional ocean circulation model to estimate spawning locations and larval transport. We did not detect a regional difference in growth rates, but found that Slope Sea larvae were larger than Gulf of Mexico larvae prior to exogenous feeding. Slope Sea larvae generally backtracked to locations north of Cape Hatteras and would have been retained within the Slope Sea until the early juvenile stage. Overall, our results provide supporting evidence that the Slope Sea is a major spawning ground that is likely to be important for population dynamics. Further study of larvae and spawning adults in the region should be prioritized to support management decisions.
    Description: Ship time was supported by NOAA, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, and the US Navy through interagency agreements for Atlantic Marine Assessment Program for Protected Species (AMAPPS). CMH and JKL received funding from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution’s Ocean Life Institute (#13080700) and Academic Programs Office. CMH was additionally supported by the Adelaide and Charles Link Foundation and the J. Seward Johnson Endowment in support of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution’s Marine Policy Center. IIR, KC, and JKL were supported by a US National Science Foundation (NSF) grant (OCE-1558806). JKL was additionally supported by the Lenfest Fund for Early Career Scientists and the Early Career Scientist Fund at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2019. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Staudinger, M. D., Mills, K. E., Stamieszkin, K., Record, N. R., Hudak, C. A., Allyn, A., Diamond, A., Friedland, K. D., Golet, W., Henderson, M. E., Hernandez, C. M., Huntington, T. G., Ji, R., Johnson, C. L., Johnson, D. S., Jordaan, A., Kocik, J., Li, Y., Liebman, M., Nichols, O. C., Pendleton, D., Richards, R. A., Robben, T., Thomas, A. C., Walsh, H. J., & Yakola, K. It's about time: a synthesis of changing phenology in the Gulf of Maine ecosystem. Fisheries Oceanography, 28(5), (2019): 532-566, doi: 10.1111/fog.12429.
    Description: The timing of recurring biological and seasonal environmental events is changing on a global scale relative to temperature and other climate drivers. This study considers the Gulf of Maine ecosystem, a region of high social and ecological importance in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean and synthesizes current knowledge of (a) key seasonal processes, patterns, and events; (b) direct evidence for shifts in timing; (c) implications of phenological responses for linked ecological‐human systems; and (d) potential phenology‐focused adaptation strategies and actions. Twenty studies demonstrated shifts in timing of regional marine organisms and seasonal environmental events. The most common response was earlier timing, observed in spring onset, spring and winter hydrology, zooplankton abundance, occurrence of several larval fishes, and diadromous fish migrations. Later timing was documented for fall onset, reproduction and fledging in Atlantic puffins, spring and fall phytoplankton blooms, and occurrence of additional larval fishes. Changes in event duration generally increased and were detected in zooplankton peak abundance, early life history periods of macro‐invertebrates, and lobster fishery landings. Reduced duration was observed in winter–spring ice‐affected stream flows. Two studies projected phenological changes, both finding diapause duration would decrease in zooplankton under future climate scenarios. Phenological responses were species‐specific and varied depending on the environmental driver, spatial, and temporal scales evaluated. Overall, a wide range of baseline phenology and relevant modeling studies exist, yet surprisingly few document long‐term shifts. Results reveal a need for increased emphasis on phenological shifts in the Gulf of Maine and identify opportunities for future research and consideration of phenological changes in adaptation efforts.
    Description: This work was supported by the Department of the Interior Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center (G14AC00441) for MDS, AJ, and KY; the National Science Foundation's Coastal SEES Program (OCE‐1325484) for KEM, ACT, MEH, and AA; the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NNX16 AG59G) for ACT, KEM, NRR, and KSS; the USGS Climate Research and Development Program for TGH; National Science & Engineering Research Council of Canada, University of New Brunswick, Environment Canada, Sir James Dunn Wildlife Research Centre, and New Brunswick Wildlife Trust Fund for AD. We also thank the Regional Association for Research on the Gulf of Maine for support, and the Gulf of Maine Research Institute for hosting and providing in kind resources for a two day in‐person workshop in August 2016. We greatly appreciate contributions from K. Alexander, G. Calandrino, C. Feurt, I. Mlsna, N. Rebuck, J. Seavey, and J. Sun for helping shape the initial scope of the manuscript. We thank J. Weltzin and two anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments. The contents of this paper are solely the responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, Fisheries and Oceans Canada or the US Environmental Protection Agency. This manuscript is submitted for publication with the understanding that the United States Government is authorized to reproduce and distribute reprints for Governmental purposes. None of the authors have conflicts of interest to declare in association with the contents of this manuscript.
    Keywords: coastal ; fish ; Gulf of Maine ; life cycle ; marine ; marine invertebrates ; marine mammals ; migration ; phenology ; phytoplankton ; seabirds ; seasonal ; timing ; zooplankton
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2019. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Hernandez, C. M., Witting, J., Willis, C., Thorrold, S. R., Llopiz, J. K., & Rotjan, R. D. Evidence and patterns of tuna spawning inside a large no-take marine protected area. Scientific Reports, 9(1), (2019): 10772, doi:10.1038/s41598-019-47161-0.
    Description: The Phoenix Islands Protected Area (PIPA), one of the world’s largest marine protected areas, represents 11% of the exclusive economic zone of the Republic of Kiribati, which earns much of its GDP by selling tuna fishing licenses to foreign nations. We have determined that PIPA is a spawning area for skipjack (Katsuwonus pelamis), bigeye (Thunnus obesus), and yellowfin (Thunnus albacares) tunas. Our approach included sampling larvae on cruises in 2015–2017 and using a biological-physical model to estimate spawning locations for collected larvae. Temperature and chlorophyll conditions varied markedly due to observed ENSO states: El Niño (2015) and neutral (2016–2017). However, larval tuna distributions were similar amongst years. Generally, skipjack larvae were patchy and more abundant near PIPA’s northeast corner, while Thunnus larvae exhibited lower and more even abundances. Genetic barcoding confirmed the presence of bigeye (Thunnus obesus) and yellowfin (Thunnus albacares) tuna larvae. Model simulations indicated that most of the larvae collected inside PIPA in 2015 were spawned inside, while stronger currents in 2016 moved more larvae across PIPA’s boundaries. Larval distributions and relative spawning output simulations indicated that both focal taxa spawned inside PIPA in all 3 study years, demonstrating that PIPA is protecting viable tuna spawning habitat.
    Description: Funding and support was provided by the PIPA Trust, Waitt and Oceans5 Foundations, Sea Education Association, the Prince Albert of Monaco Foundation II, New England Aquarium, and Boston University to R.R. and J.W. C.H. was additionally supported by a National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship. J.L. was additionally supported by NOAA through the Cooperative Institute for the North Atlantic Region (CINAR) under Cooperative Agreement NA14OAR4320158 in the form a CINAR Fellow Award, as well as by the WHOI Academic Programs Office. We thank A. Breef-Pilz for onboard sampling assistance, as well as S. Glancy, J. Pringle, E. Martin, J. Fisher, H. Goss, J. Jaskiel, S. Sheehan, and C. Moller for lab assistance. We thank the PIPA Trust and the PIPA Implementation Office for their support, as well as on-ship Kiribati Observers for their support and assistance: Tekeua Auatabu, Iannang Teaioro, Toaea Beiateuea, Taremon Korere, Kareati Waysang, and Moamoa Kabuati. We thank Q. Hanich for reading sections of this paper in advance. This research was conducted under Kiribati and PIPA permits PRP #s 3/17, 1/16, and 2/15 to JW.
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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