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  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Long-Term Global Warming Scenarios Computed with an Efficient Coupled Climate Model (1999)
    Springer
    Climatic change 43 (1999), S. 353-367 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1480
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract We present global warming scenarios computed with an intermediate-complexity atmosphere-ocean-sea ice model which has been extensively validated for a range of past climates (e.g., the Last Glacial Maximum). Our simulations extend to the year 3000, beyond the expected peak of CO2 concentrations. The thermohaline ocean circulation declines strongly in all our scenarios over the next 50 years due to a thermal effect. Changes in the hydrological cycle determine whether the circulation recovers or collapses in the long run. Both outcomes are possible within present uncertainty limits. In case of a collapse, a substantial long-lasting cooling over the North Atlantic and a drying of Europe is simulated.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1005474526406
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    Paper (German National Licenses)
    Fulltext
  • 2
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Grid point surface air temperature calculations with a fast turnaround: Combining the results of IMAGE and a GCM (1996)
    Springer
    Climatic change 34 (1996), S. 479-512 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1480
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract This paper describes a methodology that combines the outputs of (1) the Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE Version 1.0) of the Netherlands National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection (RIVM) (given a greenhouse gas emission policy, this model can estimate the effects such as global mean surface air temperature change for a wide variety of policies) and (2) ECHAM-1/LSG, the Global Circulation Model (GCM) of the Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany. The combination enables one to calculate grid point surface air temperature changes for different scenarios with a turnaround time that is much quicker than that for a GCM. The methodology is based upon a geographical pattern of the ratio of grid point temperature change to global mean values during a certain period of the simulation, as calculated by ECHAM-1/LSG for the 1990 Scenarios A and D of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). A procedure, based upon signal-to noise ratios in the outputs, enabled us to estimate where we have confidence in the methodology; this is at about 23% to 83% of the total of 2,048 grid points, depending upon the scenario and the decade in the simulation. It was found that the methodology enabled IMAGE to provide useful estimates of the GCM-predicted grid point temperature changes. These estimates were within 0.5K (0.25K) throughout the 100 years of a given simulation for at least 79% (74%) of the grid points where we are confident in applying the methodology. The temperature ratio pattern from Scenario A enabled IMAGE to provide useful estimates of temperature change within 0.5K (0.25K) in Scenario D for at least 88% (68%) of the grid points where we have confidence; indicating that the methodology is transferable to other scenarios. Tests with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory GCM indicated, however, that a temperature ratio pattern may have to be developed for each GCM. The methodology, using a temperature ratio pattern from the 1990 IPCC Scenario A and involving IMAGE, gave gridded surface air temperature patterns for the 1992 IPCC radiative-forcing Scenarios C and E and the RIVM emission Scenario B; none of these scenarios has been simulated by ECHAM-1/LSG. The simulations reflect the uncertainty range of a future warming.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00139303
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    Paper (German National Licenses)
    Fulltext
  • 3
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    A new model for climate system analysis: Outline of the model and application to palaeoclimate simulations (1999)
    Springer
    Environmental modeling and assessment 4 (1999), S. 209-216 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-2967
    Keywords: climate modelling ; climate system ; system analysis ; climate system modelling ; Earth system modelling
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract We present a new reduced-form model for climate system analysis. This model, called CLIMBER-2 (for CLIMate and BiosphERe, level 2), fills the current gap between simple, highly parameterized climate models and computationally expensive coupled models of global atmospheric and oceanic circulation. We outline the basic assumptions implicit in CLIMBER-2 and we present examples of climate system analysis including a study of atmosphere–ocean interaction during the last glacial maximum, an analysis of synergism between various components of the climate system during the mid-Holocene around 6000 years ago, and a transient simulation of climate change during the last 8000 years. These studies demonstrate the feasibility of a computationally efficient analysis of climate system dynamics which is a prerequisite for future climate impact research and, more generally, Earth system analysis, i.e., the analysis of feedbacks between our environment and human activities.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1019016418068
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    Paper (German National Licenses)
    Fulltext
  • 4
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    Potential climatic transitions with profound impact on Europe - Review of the current state of six 'tipping elements of the climate system' (2012)
    Springer
    In:  Climatic Change, 110 (3-4). pp. 845-878. Date online first: June 2011
    Details
    Publication Date: 2016-09-14
    Description: We discuss potential transitions of six climatic subsystems with large-scale impact on Europe, sometimes denoted as tipping elements. These are the ice sheets on Greenland and West Antarctica, the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, Arctic sea ice, Alpine glaciers and northern hemisphere stratospheric ozone. Each system is represented by co-authors actively publishing in the corresponding field. For each subsystem we summarize themechanism of a potential transition in a warmer climate along with its impact on Europe and assess the likelihood for such a transition based on published scientific literature. As a summary, the ‘tipping’ potential for each system is provided as a function of global mean temperature increase which required some subjective interpretation of scientific facts by the authors and should be considered as a snapshot of our current understanding.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    Format: text
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-011-0126-5
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
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