Note: Foreword -- Benefits of dealing with uncertainty in greenhouse gas inventories: introduction -- Abstract -- Introduction -- The challenges of dealing with uncertainty are still with us -- The key arguments for dealing proactively with uncertainty are becoming increasingly relevant -- The topics addressed -- Achieving reliable GHG inventories -- Bottom-up versus top-down GHG emission analyses -- Reconciling short-term emission commitments and long-term concentrations targets -- and detecting and analyzing GHG emission changes vis-à-vis uncertainty, and addressing compliance -- Issues of scales of GHG inventories -- Trading emissions -- Conclusions -- References -- Statistical dependence in input data of national greenhouse gas inventories: effects on the overall inventory uncertainty -- Abstract -- Introduction -- Methodology: how to assess the uncertainty of national emission inventories -- Selection of input data -- Error propagation vs. Monte Carlo simulation -- Considering correlated uncertainties -- Results -- Tasks -- Results using the Tier 1 (error propagation) approach -- Results using the Tier 2 (Monte Carlo) approach -- Overall results comparing the two approaches -- Austrian results in comparison to other published uncertainty estimates of national GHG inventories -- Discussion: how statistical dependence affects uncertainty estimates -- Conclusion -- References -- Uncertainty analysis for estimation of landfill emissions and data sensitivity for the input variation -- Abstract -- Introduction -- The Monte Carlo method -- Landfill CH4 emissions -- Conclusion -- References -- Toward Bayesian uncertainty quantification for forestry models used in the United Kingdom Greenhouse Gas Inventory for land use, land use change, and forestry -- Abstract -- Introduction -- Methods -- BASFOR model -- Data -- Weather data -- Atmospheric CO2. , N deposition -- Soils -- Tree data from Dodd Wood and Rheola sites -- Bayesian calibration and uncertainty quantification -- Results -- Bayesian calibration and uncertainty quantification -- C sequestration 1920--2000 -- C sequestration, 2000--2080 -- Analysis in terms of environmental change factors: climate, CO2, N deposition -- Discussion and conclusions -- Bayesian calibration and data quality -- Spatial distribution of uncertainties -- The impacts of changes in environmental factors -- The use of process-based models in GHG inventories -- References -- Atmospheric inversions for estimating CO 2 fluxes: methods and perspectives -- Abstract -- Introduction -- Inverse modeling principles -- The inverse problem of CO2 sources and sinks and its components -- A priori flux information -- Atmospheric observations -- Atmospheric transport modeling -- Bayesian synthesis inversions -- Atmospheric transport large-scale errors -- Observation errors and transport small-scale errors -- Dimension of the source vector -- Alternative methods -- Future directions and carbon cycle data assimilation -- Concluding remarks -- References -- European CO2 f luxes from atmospheric inversions using regional and global transport models -- Abstract -- Introduction -- Atmospheric inversion setup -- Global inversion with increased resolution over Europe -- Principle -- Spatial discretization of fluxes -- Temporal discretization of fluxes -- Global atmospheric CO2 measurements with new sites over Europe -- Global transport models and finer-scale regional transport models over Europe -- Calculation of the influence function of each region -- Prior fluxes and errors -- Fossil fuel CO2 emissions -- Air--sea exchange -- Net ecosystem productivity -- Sensitivity tests -- Results: annual mean f luxes -- Large-scale mean annual fluxes -- Fluxes in broad latitude bands. , Northern hemisphere fluxes -- European continental carbon balance -- European regional fluxes -- Results: seasonal f luxes -- Seasonal cycle of NEP compared to ecosystem models -- Spatial distribution of summer NEP compared to ecosystem models -- Sensitivity of European f luxes to inverse setup -- Closing remarks -- The use of regional models in an inversion -- Time-length computation for the ``influence function'' -- Conclusions -- References -- Remotely sensed soil moisture integration in an ecosystem carbon flux model. The spatial implication -- Abstract -- Introduction -- Assessing ecosystem carbon fluxes using satellite data -- Datasets: soil water index, fAPAR, meteorology, anthropogenic carbon emissions, and EUROFLUX -- Improvement of NEP estimation based on the integration of SWI data in C-Fix. Evaluation at the EUROFLUX sites -- The accuracy of C-Fix estimates of carbon uptake and respiration fluxes considering local soil moisture data -- Soil water integration into a remote sensing-based ecosystem carbon assimilation model: possible implications for the carbon balance at a European scale -- Water limited carbon uptake for Europe -- Balancing NEP and anthropogenic carbon fluxes for several European countries -- Referencing C-Fix in a GHG inventory framework: including its limits and potential improvements -- Conclusions -- References -- Can the uncertainty of full carbon accounting of forest ecosystems be made acceptable to policymakers? -- Abstract -- Introduction -- Methods and material -- Major features of FCA -- Study region -- Assessment of uncertainties -- Results and discussion -- Uncertainties of carbon pools -- Uncertainties of major fluxes -- Uncertainty of aggregated fluxes -- Comparative analysis with other approaches -- Conclusion -- References. , Terrestrial full carbon account for Russia: revised uncertainty estimates and their role in a bottom-up/top-down accounting exercise -- Abstract -- Introduction -- Methodology -- General methodology overview -- NPP -- Forest -- Agriculture -- Wetlands, grasslands, and shrubs -- Soil heterotrophic respiration -- Consumption -- Disturbances -- Results and discussion -- Conclusions -- References -- Comparison of preparatory signal analysis techniques for consideration in the (post-)Kyoto policy process -- Abstract -- Introduction -- Overview of techniques and their characteristics and conditions of application -- Preparatory signal analysis techniques -- CRU concept -- VT concept -- Und concept -- Und& -- VT concepts combined -- GSC #1 concept -- GSC #2 concept -- Conclusions -- References -- Verification of compliance with GHG emission targets: annex B countries -- Abstract -- Introduction -- Methodology -- National inventory results in consideration of uncertainty -- Emission trends analysis -- Conclusions -- References -- Spatial GHG inventory at the regional level: accounting for uncertainty -- Abstract -- Introduction -- Spatial inventory model for energy sector -- Forming elementary plots -- Geo-information technology -- Spatial inventory results -- Uncertainty evaluation -- Results of uncertainty assessments -- Uncertainty assessment using aggregated data within the Lviv region -- Uncertainty assessment using spatially distributed data -- Uncertainty sensitivity analysis -- Transition to alternative energy sources -- Input data uncertainty change -- Conclusions -- References -- Quantitative quality assessment of the greenhouse gas inventory for agriculture in EuropeQ1Please check if captured article title is correct. -- Abstract -- Introduction -- Method -- Assessing the Tier level -- Assessing the uncertainty at member state level. , Assessing the uncertainty at the EU level -- Results -- Discussion -- Activity data uncertainty is likely to be under-estimated -- Correct allocation of sources of error to activity data and emission factors is important for estimating trend uncertainty -- Uncertainty of the emission factor for N2O emissions from agricultural soils could be overestimated -- Improving methods to estimate emission to higher tiers could result in higher trend uncertainty -- Trend uncertainty is very important -- Conclusion -- References -- A statistical model for spatial inventory data: a case study of N2O emissions in municipalities of southern Norway -- Abstract -- Introduction -- Preliminary explorations -- Modeling spatial correlation -- The model -- Estimation -- Prediction -- Results -- Concluding remarks -- References -- Carbon emission trading and carbon taxes under uncertainties -- Abstract -- Introduction -- Trade equilibrium under uncertainty -- Model with interval uncertainty -- Probabilistic safety constraints -- Dynamic bilateral trading process and taxes -- Computerized multi-agent decentralized trading system -- Myopic market processes -- Concluding remarks -- Appendix 1: Uncertainties and trends of carbon fluxes -- Appendix 2: Detectability of emissions -- References -- CO2 emission trading model with trading prices -- Abstract -- Introduction -- New and earlier market models -- Evolutionary algorithm method in computer simulations -- Computer simulation results -- Conclusions -- References -- Compliance and emission trading rules for asymmetric emission uncertainty estimates -- Abstract -- Introduction -- Problem formulation -- Interval uncertainty -- Compliance -- Emission trading -- Fuzzy uncertainty -- Compliance -- Emission trading -- Equivalence of approaches -- An example -- Conclusions -- Appendix: Fuzzy sets and fuzzy numbers -- References. , The impact of uncertain emission trading markets on interactive resource planning processes and international emission trading experiments.

Note: Intro -- Title Page -- Copyright Page -- Table of Contents -- Accounting for Climate Change: Introduction -- Uncertainties of a Regional Terrestrial Biota Full Carbon Account: A Systems Analysis -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Basic Definitions -- 3 Uncertainties of the Regional Full Carbon Account -- 4 Requirements for the Terrestrial Biota Regional Full Carbon Account -- 5 Assessing Uncertainties -- 6 Some Practical Implementations and Results from Case Studies -- 7 Conclusion -- References -- National Greenhouse Gas Inventories: Understanding Uncertainties versus Potential for Improving Reliability -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Methodology: How to Assess the Uncertainty of National Emission Inventories -- 3 Results -- 4 Discussion -- 4.1 Excluding Sources with High Uncertainty -- 4.2 Covariance and the Definition of Adequate System Boundaries -- 4.3 Significance of Subjective Interpretation of Uncertainty -- 4.4 Rigid Accounting as a Method of Assessing Emissions -- 5 Conclusions -- References -- Practical Policy Applications of Uncertainty Analysis for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Using Uncertainty Estimates to Adjust Inventories -- 2.1 Two Possible Adjustment Mechanisms -- 2.2 Characteristics of the Adjustment Factor and Implications for the Uncertainty Analysis -- 3 Adjustments to Emissions Trading Ratios Based on the Uncertainty of Emissions -- 3.1 Trading Ratios: Upper Bound Emissions are Unchanged -- 3.2 Trading Ratios: Probabilities of Exceeding Emissions Commitments are Unchanged -- 3.3 Characteristics of the Trading Ratio and Uncertainty Analysis -- 3.3.1 Fulfilling Environmental Goals: The Impacts of Trading on Environmental Quality -- 3.3.2 Administrative Complexity -- 3.3.3 Implications for Trading Ratios in Practice -- 4 Uncertainty Analysis as a Tool for Inventory Improvement -- 5 Conclusions -- References. , Modeling Afforestation and the Underlying Uncertainties -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Description of the Model and Experiment -- 2.1 Description of the Model -- 2.2 Submodel of Available Water in an Ecosystem -- 2.3 Calibration and Testing of the Model -- 2.4 Modeling of the Parameter Uncertainties -- 2.5 Numerical Experiment -- 3 Results and Discussion -- 4 Conclusions -- References -- Spatial GHG Inventory: Analysis of Uncertainty Sources. A Case Study for Ukraine -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Basic Approach -- 2.1 National Level -- 2.2 Regional Level -- 2.3 Plot Level -- 3 A Geoinformation Technology for Distributed GHG Inventories -- 4 Inventory at the Regional Level: Energy Sector -- 5 Spatial Analysis of GHG Emissions -- 6 Results of Spatial Inventory and Uncertainty Reduction -- 7 Conclusions -- References -- Prior to Economic Treatment of Emissions and Their Uncertainties Under the Kyoto Protocol: Scientific Uncertainties That Must Be Kept in Mind -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Setting the Stage for Working within a Consistent FGA-Uncertainty-Verification Framework -- 2.1 A Brief Science-Theoretical Discourse: Plausibility, Validation, and Verification -- 2.2 Accounting Versus Diagnostic and Prognostic Modeling -- 2.3 Uncertainty Concept -- 3 Bottom-Up Versus Top-down Accounting: Verification of Emissions -- 4 Bottom-Up/Top-Down Verification of Emissions and Temporal Detection of Emissions Signals -- 5 Temporal Detection of Emission Signals -- 5.1 Detectability Versus Statistical Significance -- 5.2 No Credibility Without Uncertainty -- 5.3 Different Techniques-Different Endings -- 6 Conclusions -- References -- Processing National CO2 Inventory Emissions Data and their Total Uncertainty Estimates -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Notation Used -- 3 A Nonparametric Method -- 3.1 Basic Assumptions and Simplifications -- 3.2 Smoothing and Uncertainty Analysis. , 3.2.1 Smoothing Splines -- 3.2.2 Uncertainty Analysis -- 3.2.3 Application to Real Data -- 4 Empirical Parametric Models -- 4.1 Estimation of the Parameter gi -- 4.2 Piecewise Exponential Model -- 5 Geometric Brownian Motion -- 5.1 Geometric Brownian Model for the Emissions -- 5.2 Arithmetic Brownian Model for the Logarithm of the Emissions -- 6 Conclusions -- References -- Extension of EU Emissions Trading Scheme to Other Sectors and Gases: Consequences for Uncertainty of Total Tradable Amount -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Uncertainties in Different Emissions Trading Schemes -- 3 Materials and Methods -- 4 Results -- 5 Discussion and Conclusions -- References -- Compliance and Emissions Trading under the Kyoto Protocol: Rules for Uncertain Inventories -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Notation and Problem Formulation -- 3 The Interval Type of Uncertainty -- 3.1 Compliance Proving -- 4 Adjustment of the Basic Committed Level -- 5 Uncertainties in Emissions Trading -- 6 Tradable Permits Under Uncertainty -- 6.1 Compliance with Undershooting -- 6.2 Compliance with Adjustment of the Commitment Level -- 6.3 Compliance Proving and Trading Mechanism -- 7 Simulation of a Carbon Market with Effective Permits -- 7.1 Database -- 7.2 No Uncertainty Market -- 7.3 Market with Uncertainties -- 7.3.1 Effective Emission Permits -- 7.3.2 Market with Undershooting -- 7.3.3 Market with Adjustments -- 7.4 Simulation Results -- 7.4.1 Trading with Effective Permits Under Undershooting -- 7.4.2 Trading with Effective Permits Under Adjustment -- 8 The Stochastic Type of Uncertainty -- 8.1 Compliance Proving -- 8.2 Adjustment of the Basic Committed Level -- 8.3 Uncertainties in Emissions Trading -- 9 Conclusions -- References -- The Impact of Uncertainty on Banking Behavior: Evidence from the US Sulfur Dioxide Emissions Allowance Trading Program -- 1 Introduction. , 2 The Sulfur Dioxide Market, Uncertainty, and Banking -- 3 A Model of Emissions Trading under Uncertainty -- 4 The Data -- 5 Estimation and Empirical Findings -- 5.1 Allowances Banking Behavior -- 5.2 Uncertainty -- 5.3 Estimation -- 5.4 Findings -- 6 Conclusion -- Appendix -- References -- Tradable Permit Systems: Considering Uncertaintyin Emission Estimates -- 1 Introduction -- 2 The Modeling Framework -- 3 The Data -- 4 Results of Simulations -- 5 Conclusions -- Appendix -- References.

Note: Intro -- Preface -- References -- Contents -- About the Editors -- Uncertainties in greenhouse gases inventories - expanding our perspective -- References -- Uncertainty in an emissions-constrained world -- Abstract -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Methodology -- 2.1 Global emission constraints -- 2.2 From global to national: per capita emissions equity in 2050 -- 2.3 Uncertainty in cumulative emissions and risk of exceeding 2 °C in 2050 -- 2.4 Uncertainty in cumulative emissions and risk of exceeding 3 and 4 °C in 2050 -- 2.5 Uncertainty in inventoried emissions -- 2.6 Land use and land-use change until 2050 -- 2.7 Accounting for known CO2 emission transfers -- 3 Results -- 3.1 USA, a data-rich country with high total and p/c emissions -- 3.2 China, a developing country with high total but lower p/c emissions -- 4 Summary and conclusions -- Acknowledgement -- References -- Changes in European greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions 1960-2010: decomposition of determining factors -- Abstract -- Abbreviations -- 1 Introduction -- 2 The environmental Kuznets curve -- 2.1 Theoretical work -- 2.2 Empirical studies -- 2.3 Motivation for this study -- 3 Methods -- 3.1 Two identities to explain observed emissions -- 3.2 Data sources -- 4 Results -- 4.1 Emissions in Europe 1960-2010 -- 4.2 Key factors driving pollutant emissions -- 4.2.1 Population and income -- 4.2.2 Energy intensity -- 4.2.3 Fuel mix -- 4.2.4 Emission intensity -- 4.3 Summary of factors leading to emission changes over time -- 4.3.1 Sulfur dioxide -- 4.3.2 Nitrogen oxides -- 4.3.3 Carbon dioxide -- 4.4 Country results -- 5 Discussion -- 6 Summary and conclusions -- Acknowledgments -- References -- Analysis of change in relative uncertainty in GHG emissions from stationary sources for the EU 15 -- Abstract -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Methodological background. , 2.1 Historical change in uncertainty of CO2 emissions -- 2.2 Future changes in uncertainty -- 3 Results and discussion -- 3.1 Historical change in uncertainty of CO2 emissions -- 3.2 Future change in uncertainty of total GHG emissions -- 4 Conclusions -- Acknowledgments -- Open Access -- References -- Compliance for uncertain inventories via probabilistic/fuzzy comparison of alternatives -- Abstract -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Probabilistic approaches -- 2.1 Introductory remarks -- 2.2 Statistical moments -- 2.3 Critical values -- 2.4 Stochastic dominance -- 2.5 Two-sided comparison of inventories -- 3 Fuzzy set approaches -- 3.1 Introduction -- 3.2 On the underlying assumptions -- 3.3 An analogue to moments -- 3.4 Analogues to critical values -- 3.5 Fuzzy dominance -- 3.5.1 Possibility and necessity measures -- 3.5.2 Possibility of dominance indices -- 3.5.3 Necessity of dominance indices -- 3.5.4 Checking fulfilment of a limit -- 4 Conclusions -- Acknowledgments -- Open Access -- References -- The improvement of greenhouse gas inventory as a tool for reduction emission uncertainties for operations with oil in the Russia Federation -- Abstract -- 1 Introduction -- 2 The improvement of the greenhouse gas calculations for the operations with oil -- 3 Uncertainty analysis of the greenhouse gas emission estimates for the operations with oil -- 4 Conclusion -- Acknowledgments -- References -- Amazon forest biomass density maps: tackling the uncertainty in carbon emission estimates -- Abstract -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Methods -- 2.1 Biomass data sources -- 2.2 Data preparation -- 2.3 Data analysis -- 3 Results -- 4 Discussion -- 4.1 Methods underlying the maps -- 4.2 Changes in biomass due to growth/decline/degradation -- 5 Conclusions -- Acknowledgments -- References. , Regional spatial inventories (cadastres) of GHG emissions in the Energy sector: Accounting for uncertainty -- Abstract -- 1 Introduction -- 2 GHG spatial inventory -- 2.1 Point, line and area emission sources -- 2.2 Main objects of geo-referenced inventory -- 2.3 Spatial inventory of GHG emissions from stationary sources -- 2.4 Spatial inventory of GHG emission from mobile sources -- 3 Uncertainty evaluation and sensitivity analysis -- 4 Conclusions -- Acknowledgments -- References -- Improving resolution of a spatial air pollution inventory with a statistical inference approach -- Abstract -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Disaggregation framework -- 2.1 Model -- 2.2 Estimation and prediction -- 3 Case study -- 3.1 Data -- 3.2 Results of disaggregation from the 10 km grid -- 3.3 Results of disaggregation from the 15 km grid -- 4 Discussion and conclusions -- Acknowledgments -- Open Access -- References -- Solving the map overlay problem with a fuzzy approach -- Abstract -- 1 Introduction -- 2 The map overlay problem -- 2.1 Problem description -- 2.2 Current solution methods -- 2.2.1 Areal weighting -- 2.2.2 Spatial smoothing -- 2.2.3 Regression methods -- 2.3 Using additional knowledge -- 2.3.1 Data fusion -- 2.3.2 Intuitive approach to grid remapping -- 3 Using intelligent techniques -- 3.1 Introduction to fuzzy sets and fuzzy inference -- 3.1.1 Fuzzy sets -- 3.1.2 Fuzzy inference system -- 3.2 Defining the inference system -- 4 Experiments -- 4.1 Description of the results -- 4.2 Observations of the methodology -- 4.3 Future developments -- 5 Conclusion -- Acknowledgments -- Open Access -- References -- Determination of the uncertainties of the German emission inventories for particulate matter and aerosol precursors using Monte-Carlo analysis -- Abstract -- 1 Introduction -- 2 The emission model -- 3 Operationalising uncertainties. , 4 Data sources and choice of distributions types for input parameters -- 5 Results for germany -- 6 Comparison with other countries -- 7 Conclusions and look ahead -- References -- Pricing of uncertain certified emission reductions in a Chinese coal mine methane project with an extended Rubinstein-Ståhl model -- Abstract -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Methodology -- 2.1 The Rubinstein-Ståhl bargaining model -- 2.2 Modelling uncertainty of the methane content distribution -- 2.3 Modelling beliefs on parameters of bargaining model -- 3 Case study -- 3.1 Introductory information on the Huainan project -- 3.2 Negotiating CER price: no uncertainty case -- 3.3 Estimating uncertainty of methane content assessment -- 4 Simulating negotiation outcome under uncertainty -- 5 Summary and conclusions -- Acknowledgements -- Open Access -- References -- Uncertainty, cost-effectiveness and environmental safety of robust carbon trading: integrated approach -- Abstract -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Emission trading under uncertainties -- 3 Stochastic model for robust emission trading -- 3.1 Party's model -- 3.2 Social planner model -- 3.3 Bilateral negotiations -- 3.4 Redistribution schemes -- 3.5 Price-based scheme -- 4 Computerise multi-agent trading system: numerical experiments -- 5 Concluding remarks -- References -- Simulation of an uncertain emission market for greenhouse gases using agent-based methods -- Abstract -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Market with known emissions -- 3 A market with uncertain emissions -- 3.1 Basic notions -- 3.2 Effective emissions -- 3.3 Basic relations in trading -- 3.4 Organization of the market -- 4 Simulation system -- 4.1 Trading mechanisms -- 4.2 Multi-agent system -- 4.3 Non-learning agents -- 4.4 Learning agents -- 5 Simulation results -- 5.1 Case considered -- 5.2 Learning agents -- 5.3 Non-learning agents. , 5.4 Comparison and discussion of results -- 6 Conclusions -- Acknowledgments -- Open Access -- References -- Economic, institutional and technological uncertainties of emissions trading-a system dynamics modeling approach -- Abstract -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Recent developments -- 3 Economy, energy consumption and emissions trading -- 3.1 System dynamics model for dependency between economy, energy consumption and emissions -- 3.2 Uncertainty of economic and technological development -- 3.3 Uncertainty caused by international emissions trading -- 4 Implementation of resource-saving technology under the conditions of increasing resource price and uncertainty -- 4.1 Timing competition in adopting resource-saving technology -- 4.2 Uncertainty and follower advantage -- 5 Conclusions -- References -- Accounting for uncertainties and time preference in economic analysis of tackling climate change through forestry and selected policy implications for Scotland and Ukraine -- Abstract -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Theoretical overview -- 3 Effects of using different discount settings on the decision-making processes of tackling climate change through afforestation in Scotland -- 4 Influence of different discount settings on the results of economic analysis of carbon sequestration: policy implications for Ukraine -- 5 Discussion -- 6 Conclusions -- Acknowledgments -- References.

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