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  • 1
    ISSN: 1365-2486
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Process-based models can be classified into: (a) terrestrial biogeochemical models (TBMs), which simulate fluxes of carbon, water and nitrogen coupled within terrestrial ecosystems, and (b) dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), which further couple these processes interactively with changes in slow ecosystem processes depending on resource competition, establishment, growth and mortality of different vegetation types. In this study, four models – RHESSys, GOTILWA+, LPJ-GUESS and ORCHIDEE – representing both modelling approaches were compared and evaluated against benchmarks provided by eddy-covariance measurements of carbon and water fluxes at 15 forest sites within the EUROFLUX project. Overall, model-measurement agreement varied greatly among sites. Both modelling approaches have somewhat different strengths, but there was no model among those tested that universally performed well on the two variables evaluated. Small biases and errors suggest that ORCHIDEE and GOTILWA+ performed better in simulating carbon fluxes while LPJ-GUESS and RHESSys did a better job in simulating water fluxes. In general, the models can be considered as useful tools for studies of climate change impacts on carbon and water cycling in forests. However, the various sources of variation among models simulations and between models simulations and observed data described in this study place some constraints on the results and to some extent reduce their reliability. For example, at most sites in the Mediterranean region all models generally performed poorly most likely because of problems in the representation of water stress effects on both carbon uptake by photosynthesis and carbon release by heterotrophic respiration (Rh).The use of flux data as a means of assessing key processes in models of this type is an important approach to improving model performance. Our results show that the models have value but that further model development is necessary with regard to the representation of the some of the key ecosystem processes.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 2
    ISSN: 1573-1480
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract Three bioclimate variables (growing degree days after budburst, temperature of the coldest month and a moisture index) are used in a model (STASH) to predict potential range limits of north European tree species. CO2-induced climate warming scenarios cause major changes in these limits. The dominant conifers of the mixed conifer/northern hardwoods zone, Picea abies and Pinus sylvestris, retreat from the south and west while Fagus sylvatica and other temperate hardwoods spread to the north. A gap model (FORSKA 2) is used to simulate the associated transient responses of a forest reserve within this zone. In both dry Pinus- and moist Picea- dominated forest communities, Picea continues to increase while Pinus sooner or later declines. These changes are continuing successional (non-climatic) responses to the cessation of disturbance 150 years ago. Climate warming speeds up the succession, and allows Fagus to establish and increase. The eventual decline of Picea however is delayed due to the persistence of old-growth stands. Picea forests subject to continuing disturbance show a more rapid shift to dominance by Fagus and other temperate hardwoods. Delayed immigration of new species, including Fagus, would favour earlysuccessional species such as Betula pendula and Quercus spp. in a forest with reduced biomass and diversity. The results emphasise the complex and sometimes counter-intuitive nature of transient responses, and the importance of considering disturbance history and potential migration rates when predicting the impacts of rapid climate change on forests.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 3
    ISSN: 1573-1480
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract Forest gap models share a common structure for simulating tree population dynamics, and many models contain the same or quite similar ecological factors. However, a wide variety of formulations are being used to implement this general structure. The comparison of models incorporating different formulations is important for model validation, for assessing the reliability of model projections obtained under scenarios of climatic change, and for the development of models with a wide range of applicability. This paper reviews qualitative and quantitative comparisons of the structure and behaviour of forest gap models. As examples of qualitative model comparisons, the different formulations used for the heightdiameter relationship, for the maximum growth equation, and for the effects of temperature and drought on tree growth are reviewed. The variety of formulations currently in use has the potential to influence simulation results considerably, but we conclude that little is known on the sensitivity of the models in this respect. The quantitative model comparisons performed so far allow us to draw the following conclusions: (1) Gap models are quite sensitive to the formulation of climate-dependent processes under current climate, and this sensitivity is even more pronounced under a changed climate. (2) Adaptations of forest gap models to specific regions have required detailed sub-models of species life history, thus complicating model comparison. (3) Some of the complex models developed for region-specific applications can be simplified without hampering the realism with which they simulate species composition. (4) Attempts to apply the models without modification beyond the area for which they were developed have produced controversial results. It is concluded that the sensitivity of forest gap models to the exact process formulations should be examined carefully, and that more systematic comparisons of model behaviour at a range of test sites would be desirable. Such studies could improve our understanding of forest dynamics considerably, and they would help to focus future research activities with gap models.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 4
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Climatic change 41 (1999), S. 37-52 
    ISSN: 1573-1480
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract Impacts of climate change on vegetation are often summarized in biome maps, representing the potential natural vegetation class for each cell of a grid under current and changed climate. The amount of change between two biome maps is usually measured by the fraction of cells that change class, or by the kappa statistic. Neither measure takes account of varying structural and floristic dissimilarity among biomes. An attribute-based measure of dissimilarity (ΔV) between vegetation classes is therefore introduced. ΔV is based on (a) the relative importance of different plant life forms (e.g. tree, grass) in each class, and (b) a series of attributes (e.g. evergreen-deciduous, tropical-nontropical) of each life form with a weight for each attribute. ΔV is implemented here for the most used biome model, BIOME 1 (Prentice, I. C. et al., 1992). Multidimensional scaling of pairwise ΔV values verifies that the suggested importance values and attribute weights lead to a reasonable pattern of dissimilarities among biomes. Dissimilarity between two maps (ΔV) is obtained by area-weighted averaging of ΔV over the model grid. Using ΔV, present global biome distribution from climatology is compared with anomaly-based scenarios for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration (2 × CO2), and for extreme glacial and interglacial conditions. All scenarios are obtained from equilibrium simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a mixed-layer ocean model. The 2 × CO2 simulations are the widely used OSU and GFDL runs from the 1980's, representing models with low and high climate sensitivity, respectively. The palaeoclimate simulations were made with CCM1, with sensitivity similar to GFDL. ΔV values for the comparisons of 2 × CO2 with present climate are similar to values for the comparisons of the last interglacial and mid-Holocene with present climate. However, the two simulated 2 × CO2 cases are much more like each other than they are to the simulated interglacial cases. The largest ΔV values were between the last glacial maximum and all other cases, including the present. These examples illustrate the potential of ΔV in comparing the impacts of different climate change scenarios, and the possibility of calibrating climate change impacts against a palaeoclimatic benchmark.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 5
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Plant ecology 71 (1987), S. 13-19 
    ISSN: 1573-5052
    Keywords: Chance ; Cluster analysis ; Mosaic ; Ordination ; Soil factor ; Species diversity ; Stewart Island ; Swale
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract The vegetation of a dune slack at Mason Bay, Stewart Island, New Zealand was found to comprise a mosaic of communities. Although the broad vegetational patterns could be correlated with the depth of the water table, the patterns were far from simple. Species diversity over the whole slack was lower than values reported from European dune slacks; even the most diverse communities did not reach European mean values.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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