Description: The fifth Workshop on Systematic Errors (WSE) in weather and climate models was hosted by Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) on under the auspices of the Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE), jointly sponsored by the Commission of Atmospheric Sciences of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). This major event welcomed over 200 scientists from the weather and climate communities. The workshop primary goal was to increase the understanding of the nature and cause of systematic errors in numerical models across timescales. Out of 240 abstracts submitted to the workshop, 48 talks and 132 posters were presented.

Description: he Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) is focused on a number of Special Observing Periods (SOPs) of two to three months’ duration in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. One feature of the SOPs is a program of enhanced radiosonde and buoy measurements contributing to assessments of how the extra observations support improved forecast skills. Another activity resulting from the SOPs is the YOPP Supersite Model Intercomparison Project (YOPPsiteMIP). The YOPPsiteMIP concept is unique compared to Climate Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIPs) because of (1) a focus on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) scales, processes and improvements, (2) the selection of polar, intensive, surface observing locations (YOPP Supersites) for which the NWP centers will create high-resolution model outputs and (3) special merged, observation outputs for the YOPP Supersites matched to the model outputs. These unique datasets of matched model time-step output and multi-variate high-frequency observations will enable detailed analysis of fast, small-scale processes. Example processes of interest are coupling mechanisms between the atmosphere, ocean, land and ice; cloud/precipitation micro- and macro-physics; the energy budgets over land, ocean and ice; and structure of the planetary boundary layer and the ocean mixed layer. The YOPPsiteMIP planning has focused so far on Arctic terrestrial YOPP Supersites, however, discussions are initiated on expanding the concept to selected Antarctic sites, as well as to ships and ice-stations in the Arctic Ocean. Preliminary results of the observation-model process-based evaluations at the YOPP Supersites relevant to environmental predictions ranging from weather to S2S scales will be presented.

Description: The Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) is planned for mid-2017 to mid-2019, centred on 2018. Its goal is to enable a significant improvement in environmental prediction capabilities for the polar regions and beyond, by coordinating a period of intensive observing, modelling, prediction, verification, user-engagement and education activities. With a focus on time scales from hours to a season, YOPP is a major initiative of the World Meteorological Organization’s World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) and a key component of the Polar Prediction Project (PPP). YOPP is being planned and coordinated by the PPP Steering Group together with representatives from partners and other initiatives, including the World Climate Research Programme’s Polar Climate Predictability Initiative (PCPI). The objectives of YOPP are to: 1. Improve the existing polar observing system (enhanced coverage, higher-quality observations). 2. Gather additional observations through field programmes aimed at improving understanding of key polar processes. 3. Develop improved representation of key polar processes in (un)coupled models used for prediction. 4. Develop improved (coupled) data assimilation systems accounting for challenges in the polar regions such as sparseness of observational data. 5. Explore the predictability of the atmosphere-cryosphere-ocean system, with a focus on sea ice, on time scales from hours to a season. 6. Improve understanding of linkages between polar regions and lower latitudes, assess skill of models representing these linkages, and determine the impact of improved polar prediction on forecast skill in lower latitudes. 7. Improve verification of polar weather and environmental predictions to obtain better quantitative knowledge on model performance, and on the skill, especially for user- relevant parameters. 8. Identify various stakeholders and establish their decisionmaking needs with respect to weather, climate, ice, and related environmental services. 9. Assess the costs and benefits of using predictive information for a spectrum of users and services. 10. Provide training opportunities to generate a sound knowledge base (and its transfer across generations) on polar prediction related issues. YOPP is implemented in three distinct phases. During the YOPP Preparation Phase (2013 through to mid-2017) this Implementation Plan was developed, which includes key outcomes of consultations with partners at the YOPP Summit in July 2015. Plans will be further developed and refined through focused international workshops. There will be engagement with stakeholders and arrangement of funding, coordination of observations and modelling activities, and preparatory research. During the YOPP Core Phase (mid-2017 to mid-2019), four elements will be staged: intensive observing periods for both hemispheres, a complementary intensive modelling and prediction period, a period of enhanced monitoring of forecast use in decisionmaking including verification, and a special educational effort. Finally, during the YOPP Consolidation Phase (mid-2019 to 2022) the legacy of data, science and publications will be organized. The WWRP-PPP Steering Group provides endorsement throughout the YOPP phases for projects that contribute to YOPP. This process facilitates coordination and enhances visibility, communication, and networking.

Description: The Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) has the mission to enable a significant improvement in environmental prediction capabilities for the polar regions and beyond, by coordinating a period of intensive observing, modelling, prediction, verification, user- engagement and education activities. The YOPP Core Phase will be from mid-2017 to mid-2019, flanked by a Preparation Phase and a Consolidation Phase. YOPP is a key component of the World Meteorological Organization – World Weather Research Programme (WMO-WWRP) Polar Prediction Project (PPP). The objectives of YOPP are to: 1. Improve the existing polar observing system (better coverage, higher-quality observations); 2. Gather additional observations through field programmes aimed at improving understanding of key polar processes; 3. Develop improved representation of key polar processes in coupled (and uncoupled) models used for prediction; 4. Develop improved (coupled) data assimilation systems accounting for challenges in the polar regions such as sparseness of observational data; 5. Explore the predictability of the atmosphere-cryosphere-ocean system, with a focus on sea ice, on time scales from days to seasons; 6. Improve understanding of linkages between polar regions and lower latitudes and assess skill of models representing these linkages; 7. Improve verification of polar weather and environmental predictions to obtain better quantitative knowledge on model performance, and on the skill, especially for user-relevant parameters; 8. Demonstrate the benefits of using predictive information for a spectrum of user types and services; 9. Provide training opportunities to generate a sound knowledge base (and its transfer across generations) on polar prediction related issues. The PPP Steering Group provides endorsement for projects that contribute to YOPP to enhance coordination, visibility, communication, and networking. This White Paper is based largely on the much more comprehensive YOPP Implementation Plan (WWRP/PPP No. 3 – 2014), but has an emphasis on Arctic observations.

Description: What: 120 scientists, stakeholders, and representatives from operational forecasting centers, international bodies, and funding agencies assembled to make significant advances in the planning of the Year of Polar Prediction; When: 13-15 July 2015; Where: WMO Headquarters, Geneva, Switzerland