Description: Comparing simulations of key warm periods in Earth history with contemporaneous geological proxy data is a useful approach for evaluating the ability of climate models to simulate warm, high-CO2 climates that are unprecedented in the more recent past. Here we use a global data set of confidence-assessed, proxy-based temperature estimates and biome reconstructions to assess the ability of eight models to simulate warm terrestrial climates of the Pliocene epoch. The Late Pliocene, 3.6–2.6 million years ago, is an accessible geological interval to understand climate processes of a warmer world. We show that model-predicted surface air temperatures reveal a substantial cold bias in the Northern Hemisphere. Particularly strong data–model mismatches in mean annual temperatures (up to 18 °C) exist in northern Russia. Our model sensitivity tests identify insufficient temporal constraints hampering the accurate configuration of model boundary conditions as an important factor impacting on data–model discrepancies. We conclude that to allow a more robust evaluation of the ability of present climate models to predict warm climates, future Pliocene data–model comparison studies should focus on orbitally defined time slices.

Description: Reduced surface–deep ocean exchange and enhanced nutrient consumption by phytoplankton in the Southern Ocean have been linked to lower glacial atmospheric CO2. However, identification of the biological and physical conditions involved and the related processes remains incomplete. Here we specify Southern Ocean surface–subsurface contrasts using a new tool, the combined oxygen and silicon isotope measurement of diatom and radiolarian opal, in combination with numerical simulations. Our data do not indicate a permanent glacial halocline related to melt water from icebergs. Corroborated by numerical simulations, we find that glacial surface stratification was variable and linked to seasonal sea-ice changes. During glacial spring–summer, the mixed layer was relatively shallow, while deeper mixing occurred during fall–winter, allowing for surface-ocean refueling with nutrients from the deep reservoir, which was potentially richer in nutrients than today. This generated specific carbon and opal export regimes turning the glacial seasonal sea-ice zone into a carbon sink.

Description: Though primarily driven by insolation changes associated with well-known variations in Earth's astronomical parameters, the response of the climate system during interglacials includes a diversity of feedbacks involving the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, vegetation and land ice. A thorough multi-model-data comparison is essential to assess the ability of climate models to resolve interglacial temperature trends and to help in understanding the recorded climatic signal and the underlying climate dynamics. We present the first multi-model-data comparison of transient millennial-scale temperature changes through two intervals of the Present Interglacial (PIG; 8–1.2 ka) and the Last Interglacial (LIG; 123–116.2 ka) periods. We include temperature trends simulated by 9 different climate models, alkenone-based temperature reconstructions from 117 globally distributed locations (about 45% of them within the LIG) and 12 ice-core-based temperature trends from Greenland and Antarctica (50% of them within the LIG). The definitions of these specific interglacial intervals enable a consistent inter-comparison of the two intervals because both are characterised by minor changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and more importantly by insolation trends that show clear similarities. Our analysis shows that in general the reconstructed PIG and LIG Northern Hemisphere mid-to-high latitude cooling compares well with multi-model, mean-temperature trends for the warmest months and that these cooling trends reflect a linear response to the warmest-month insolation decrease over the interglacial intervals. The most notable exception is the strong LIG cooling trend reconstructed from Greenland ice cores that is not simulated by any of the models. A striking model-data mismatch is found for both the PIG and the LIG over large parts of the mid-to-high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere where the data depicts negative temperature trends that are not in agreement with near zero trends in the simulations. In this area, the positive local summer insolation trend is counteracted in climate models by an enhancement of the Southern Ocean summer sea-ice cover and/or an increase in Southern Ocean upwelling. If the general picture emerging from reconstructions is realistic, then the model-data mismatch in mid and high Southern Hemisphere latitudes implies that none of the models is able to resolve the correct balance of these feedbacks, or, alternatively, that interglacial Southern Hemisphere temperature trends are driven by mechanisms which are not included in the transient simulations, such as changes in the Antarctic ice sheet or meltwater-induced changes in the overturning circulation.

Description: Due to the lack of data, the extent, thickness and drift patterns of sea ice and icebergs in the glacial Arctic remains poorly constrained. Earlier studies are contradictory proposing either a cessation of the marine cryosphere or an ice drift system operating like present-day. Here we examine the marine Arctic cryosphere during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) using a high-resolution, regional ocean-sea ice model. Whereas modern sea ice in the western Arctic Basin can circulate in the Beaufort Gyre for decades, our model studies present an extreme shortcut of glacial ice drift. In more detail, our results show a clockwise sea-ice drift in the western Arctic Basin that merges into a direct trans-Arctic path towards Fram Strait. This is consistent with dated ice plow marks on the seafloor, which show the orientation of iceberg drift in this direction. Also ice-transported iron-oxide grains deposited in Fram Strait, can be matched by their chemical composition to similar grains found in potential sources from the entire circum-Arctic. The model results indicate that the pattern of Arctic sea-ice drift during the LGM is established by wind fields and seems to be a general feature of the glacial ocean. Our model results do not indicate a cessation in ice drift during the LGM.

Description: Paleo-climate records and geodynamic modelling indicate the existence of complex interactions between glacial sea level changes, volcanic degassing and atmospheric CO2, which may have modulated the climate system’s descent into the last ice age. Between ∼85 and 70 kyr ago, during an interval of decreasing axial tilt, the orbital component in global temperature records gradually declined, while atmospheric CO2, instead of continuing its long-term correlation with Antarctic temperature, remained relatively stable. Here, based on novel global geodynamic models and the joint interpretation of paleo-proxy data as well as biogeochemical simulations, we show that a sea level fall in this interval caused enhanced pressure-release melting in the uppermost mantle, which may have induced a surge in magma and CO2 fluxes from mid-ocean ridges and oceanic hotspot volcanoes. Our results reveal a hitherto unrecognized negative feedback between glaciation and atmospheric CO2 predominantly controlled by marine volcanism on multi-millennial timescales of ∼5,000–15,000 years.

Description: The end of the last interglacial period, ~118 kyr ago, was characterized by substantial ocean circulation and climate perturbations resulting from instabilities of polar ice sheets. These perturbations are crucial for a better understanding of future climate change. The seasonal temperature changes of the tropical ocean, however, which play an important role in seasonal climate extremes such as hurricanes, floods and droughts at the present day, are not well known for this period that led into the last glacial. Here we present a monthly resolved snapshot of reconstructed sea surface temperature in the tropical North Atlantic Ocean for 117.7±0.8 kyr ago, using coral Sr/Ca and δ18O records. We find that temperature seasonality was similar to today, which is consistent with the orbital insolation forcing. Our coral and climate model results suggest that temperature seasonality of the tropical surface ocean is controlled mainly by orbital insolation changes during interglacials.

Description: We evaluate the opening of the Drake Passage (DP), between Antarctica and South America, and associated changes in ocean circulation as forcing factor for the onset of Antarctic glaciation near the Eocene–Oligocene transition (~ 34 million years ago). In this paper this hypothesis is tested through sensitivity experiments, using numerical models for the global ocean and atmosphere and for the Antarctic Ice Sheet. The response of the Antarctic continent to the opening of the DP and to the establishment of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current is examined. Two different climate states are reproduced with ocean gateway configurations similar to the Late Eocene and to the Late Oligocene, before and after the opening of the DP. A reduced southward heat flux and a decrease of surface temperature are found in the Antarctic realm when the DP is open. A more massive ice sheet develops on the continent in case of DP open compared to the configuration with closed DP.

Description: Millennial-scale Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability has often been invoked to explain the Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) events. However, the underlying causes responsible for millennial-scale AMOC variability are still debated. High-resolution U37K′ and TEX86H temperature records for the last 50 kyr obtained from the tropical Northeast (NE) Atlantic (core GeoB7926-2, 20°13′N, 18°27′W, 2500 m water depth) show that distinctive DO-type subsurface (i.e. below the mixed layer: 〉20 m water depth) temperature oscillations occurred with amplitudes of up to 8 °C in the tropical NE Atlantic during Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3). Statistical analyses reveal a positive relationship between the reconstructed substantial cooling of subsurface waters and prominent surface warming over Greenland during DO interstadials. General circulation model (GCM) simulations without external freshwater forcing, the mechanism often invoked in explaining DO events, demonstrate similar anti-phase correlations between AMOC and pronounced NE Atlantic subsurface temperatures under glacial climate conditions. Together with our paleoproxy dataset, this suggests that the vertical temperature structure and associated changes in AMOC were key elements governing DO events during the last glacial.

Description: The last deglaciation was characterized by a sequence of abrupt climate events thought to be linked to rapid changes in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). The sequence includes a weakening of the AMOC after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) during Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1), which ends with an abrupt AMOC amplification at the transition to the Bølling/Allerød (B/A). This transition occurs despite persistent deglacial meltwater fluxes that counteract vigorous North Atlantic deep-water formation. Using the Earth system model COSMOS with a range of deglacial boundary conditions and reconstructed deglacial meltwater fluxes, we show that deglacial CO2 rise and ice sheet decline modulate the sensitivity of the AMOC to these fluxes. While declining ice sheets increase the sensitivity, increasing atmospheric CO2 levels tend to counteract this effect. Therefore, the occurrence of a weaker HS1 AMOC and an abrupt AMOC increase in the presence of meltwater, might be explained by these effects, as an alternative to or in combination with changes in the magnitude or routing of meltwater discharge.

Description: The global climate has been gradually cooling over the Cenozoic and is punctuated by the intensification of Northern Hemisphere Glaciation (NHG) from the latest Pliocene to earliest Pleistocene (∼3.1–2.5 millions of years ago, Ma). A decline of atmospheric CO2 is supposed as a prerequisite for the NHG, but the associated carbon-cycle processes remain elusive. Here we combine foraminiferal records of neodymium isotope and boron-calcium ratio, and simulations of an Earth system model, to investigate changes in the water-mass composition and carbonate-ion concentration of the deep Pacific Ocean during the NHG. Our proxy records have revealed a significant expansion of southern-sourced waters with increased respired carbon storage into the deep Pacific during the NHG. These changes may be explained by strengthened deep-water formation and biological-pump efficiency in the Southern Ocean due to Antarctic sea-ice growth, as suggested by our model experiments and evidence from the Sub-Antarctic region. These results provide key clues for quantifying the role of the dissolved inorganic carbon content of deep Pacific waters in modulating atmospheric CO2 during the NHG.