Description: Recent global warming is pronounced in high-latitude regions (e.g. northern Asia), and will cause the vegetation to change. Future vegetation trends (e.g. the “arctic greening”) will feed back into atmospheric circulation and the global climate system. Understanding the nature and causes of past vegetation changes is important for predicting the composition and distribution of future vegetation communities. Fossil pollen records from 468 sites in northern and eastern Asia were biomised at selected times between 40 cal ka bp and today. Biomes were also simulated using a climate-driven biome model and results from the two approaches compared in order to help understand the mechanisms behind the observed vegetation changes. The consistent biome results inferred by both approaches reveal that long-term and broad-scale vegetation patterns reflect global- to hemispheric-scale climate changes. Forest biomes increase around the beginning of the late deglaciation, become more widespread during the early and middle Holocene, and decrease in the late Holocene in fringe areas of the Asian Summer Monsoon. At the southern and southwestern margins of the taiga, forest increases in the early Holocene and shows notable species succession, which may have been caused by winter warming at ca. 7 cal ka bp. At the northeastern taiga margin (central Yakutia and northeastern Siberia), shrub expansion during the last deglaciation appears to prevent the permafrost from thawing and hinders the northward expansion of evergreen needle-leaved species until ca. 7 cal ka bp. The vegetation-climate disequilibrium during the early Holocene in the taiga-tundra transition zone suggests that projected climate warming will not cause a northward expansion of evergreen needle-leaved species.

Description: Two interglacial epochs are included in the suite of Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) simulations in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The experimental protocols for simulations of the mid-Holocene (midHolocene, 6000 years before present) and the Last Interglacial (lig127k, 127 000 years before present) are described here. These equilibrium simulations are designed to examine the impact of changes in orbital forcing at times when atmospheric greenhouse gas levels were similar to those of the preindustrial period and the continental configurations were almost identical to modern ones. These simulations test our understanding of the interplay between radiative forcing and atmospheric circulation, and the connections among large-scale and regional climate changes giving rise to phenomena such as land–sea contrast and high-latitude amplification in temperature changes, and responses of the monsoons, as compared to today. They also provide an opportunity, through carefully designed additional sensitivity experiments, to quantify the strength of atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, and land-surface feedbacks. Sensitivity experiments are proposed to investigate the role of freshwater forcing in triggering abrupt climate changes within interglacial epochs. These feedback experiments naturally lead to a focus on climate evolution during interglacial periods, which will be examined through transient experiments. Analyses of the sensitivity simulations will also focus on interactions between extratropical and tropical circulation, and the relationship between changes in mean climate state and climate variability on annual to multi-decadal timescales. The comparative abundance of paleoenvironmental data and of quantitative climate reconstructions for the Holocene and Last Interglacial make these two epochs ideal candidates for systematic evaluation of model performance, and such comparisons will shed new light on the importance of external feedbacks (e.g., vegetation, dust) and the ability of state-of-the-art models to simulate climate changes realistically.

Description: The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 000 years ago) is one of the suite of paleoclimate simulations included in the current phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). It is an interval when insolation was similar to the present, but global ice volume was at a maximum, eustatic sea level was at or close to a minimum, greenhouse gas concentrations were lower, atmospheric aerosol loadings were higher than today, and vegetation and land-surface characteristics were different from today. The LGM has been a focus for the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) since its inception, and thus many of the problems that might be associated with simulating such a radically different climate are well documented. The LGM state provides an ideal case study for evaluating climate model performance because the changes in forcing and temperature between the LGM and pre-industrial are of the same order of magnitude as those projected for the end of the 21st century. Thus, the CMIP6 LGM experiment could provide additional information that can be used to constrain estimates of climate sensitivity. The design of the Tier 1 LGM experiment (lgm) includes an assessment of uncertainties in boundary conditions, in particular through the use of different reconstructions of the ice sheets and of the change in dust forcing. Additional (Tier 2) sensitivity experiments have been designed to quantify feedbacks associated with land-surface changes and aerosol loadings, and to isolate the role of individual forcings. Model analysis and evaluation will capitalize on the relative abundance of paleoenvironmental observations and quantitative climate reconstructions already available for the LGM.

Description: Large-scale atmospheric patterns are examined on orbital timescales using a climate model which explicitly resolves the atmosphere–ocean–sea ice dynamics. It is shown that, in contrast to boreal summer where the climate mainly follows the local radiative forcing, the boreal winter climate is strongly determined by modulation of circulation modes linked to the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation (AO/NAO) and the Northern/Southern Annular Modes. We find that during a positive phase of the AO/NAO the convection in the tropical Pacific is below normal. The related atmospheric circulation provides an atmospheric bridge for the precessional forcing inducing a non-uniform temperature anomalies with large amplitudes over the continents. We argue that this is important for mechanisms responsible for multi-millennial climate variability and glacial inception.

Description: Little is known about the climate evolution on the Kamchatka Peninsula during the last glacial–interglacial transition as existing climate records do not reach beyond 12 ka BP. In this study, a summer temperature record for the past 20 kyr is presented. Branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers, terrigenous biomarkers suitable for continental air temperature reconstructions, were analyzed in a sediment core from the western continental margin off Kamchatka in the marginal northwest Pacific (NW Pacific). The record suggests that summer temperatures on Kamchatka during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) equaled modern temperatures. We suggest that strong southerly winds associated with a pronounced North Pacific High pressure system over the subarctic NW Pacific accounted for the warm conditions. A comparison with an Earth system model reveals discrepancies between model and proxy-based reconstructions for the LGM temperature and atmospheric circulation in the NW Pacific realm. The deglacial temperature development is characterized by abrupt millennial-scale temperature oscillations. The Bølling–Allerød warm phase and the Younger Dryas cold spell are pronounced events, suggesting a connection to North Atlantic climate variability.

Description: We present here the first results, for the preindustrial and mid-Holocene climatological periods, of the newly developed isotope-enhanced version of the fully coupled Earth system model MPI-ESM, called hereafter MPI-ESM-wiso. The water stable isotopes H162O, H182O and HDO have been implemented into all components of the coupled model setup. The mid-Holocene provides the opportunity to evaluate the model response to changes in the seasonal and latitudinal distribution of insolation induced by different orbital forcing conditions. The results of our equilibrium simulations allow us to evaluate the performance of the isotopic model in simulating the spatial and temporal variations of water isotopes in the different compartments of the hydrological system for warm climates. For the preindustrial climate, MPI-ESM-wiso reproduces very well the observed spatial distribution of the isotopic content in precipitation linked to the spatial variations in temperature and precipitation rate. We also find a good model–data agreement with the observed distribution of isotopic composition in surface seawater but a bias with the presence of surface seawater that is too 18O-depleted in the Arctic Ocean. All these results are improved compared to the previous model version ECHAM5/MPIOM. The spatial relationships of water isotopic composition with temperature, precipitation rate and salinity are consistent with observational data. For the preindustrial climate, the interannual relationships of water isotopes with temperature and salinity are globally lower than the spatial ones, consistent with previous studies. Simulated results under mid-Holocene conditions are in fair agreement with the isotopic measurements from ice cores and continental speleothems. MPI-ESM-wiso simulates a decrease in the isotopic composition of precipitation from North Africa to the Tibetan Plateau via India due to the enhanced monsoons during the mid-Holocene. Over Greenland, our simulation indicates a higher isotopic composition of precipitation linked to higher summer temperature and a reduction in sea ice, shown by positive isotope–temperature gradient. For the Antarctic continent, the model simulates lower isotopic values over the East Antarctic plateau, linked to the lower temperatures during the mid-Holocene period, while similar or higher isotopic values are modeled over the rest of the continent. While variations of isotopic contents in precipitation over West Antarctica between mid-Holocene and preindustrial periods are partly controlled by changes in temperature, the transport of relatively 18O-rich water vapor near the coast to the western ice core sites could play a role in the final isotopic composition. So, more caution has to be taken about the reconstruction of past temperature variations during warm periods over this area. The coupling of such a model with an ice sheet model or the use of a zoomed grid centered on this region could help to better describe the role of the water vapor transport and sea ice around West Antarctica. The reconstruction of past salinity through isotopic content in sea surface waters can be complicated for regions with strong ocean dynamics, variations in sea ice regimes or significant changes in freshwater budget, giving an extremely variable relationship between the isotopic content and salinity of ocean surface waters over small spatial scales. These complicating factors demonstrate the complexity of interpreting water isotopes as past climate signals of warm periods like the mid-Holocene. A systematic isotope model intercomparison study for further insights on the model dependency of these results would be beneficial.

Description: Environmental changes in the region connecting the Arctic Ocean and the northern North Atlantic were studied for the last 9,000 years (9 ka) by a combination of proxy-based paleoceanographic reconstructions as well as transient and time-slice simulations with climate models. Today, the area is perennially ice-covered in the west and ice-free in the east. Results show that sea-ice conditions were highly variable on short timescales in the last 9 ka. However, sea-ice proxies reveal an overall eastward movement of the sea-ice margin, in line with a decreasing influence of warm Atlantic Water advected to the Arctic Ocean. These cooling trends were rapidly reversed 100 years ago and replaced by the general warming in the Arctic. Model results show a consistently high freshwater input to the Arctic Ocean during the last 7 ka. The signal is robust against the Holocene cooling trend, however sensitive towards the warming trend of the last century. These results may play a role in the observed Arctic changes.

Description: Rapid monsoon changes since the last deglaciation remain poorly constrained due to the scarcity of geological archives. Here we present a high-resolution scanning X-ray fluorescence (XRF) analysis of a 13.5 m terrace succession on the western Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP) to infer rapid monsoon changes since the last deglaciation. Our results indicate that Rb∕Sr and Zr∕Rb are sensitive indicators of chemical weathering and wind sorting, respectively, which are further linked to the strength of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). During the last deglaciation, two cold intervals of the Heinrich event 1 and Younger Dryas were characterized by intensified winter monsoon and weakened summer monsoon. The EAWM gradually weakened at the beginning of the Holocene, while the EASM remained steady till 9.9 ka and then grew stronger. Both the EASM and EAWM intensities were relatively weak during the Middle Holocene, indicating a mid-Holocene climatic optimum. Rb∕Sr and Zr∕Rb exhibit an antiphase relationship between the summer and winter monsoon changes on a centennial timescale during 16–1 ka. Comparison of these monsoon changes with solar activity and North Atlantic cooling events reveals that both factors can lead to abrupt changes on a centennial timescale in the Early Holocene. During the Late Holocene, North Atlantic cooling became the major forcing of centennial monsoon events.

Description: A compilation of the published literature on dust content in terrestrial and marine sediment cores was synchronized with pollen data and speleothem growth phases on the Greenland Ice Core Chronology 2005 (GICC05) time axis. Aridity patterns for eight key areas of the global climate system have been reconstructed for the last 60 000 years. These records have different time resolutions and different dating methods, i.e. different types of stratigraphy. Nevertheless, all regions analysed in this study show humid conditions during early Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3) and the early Holocene or deglaciation, but not always at the same time. Such discrepancies have been interpreted as regional effects, although stratigraphic uncertainties may affect some of the proposed interpretations. In comparison, most of the MIS2 interval becomes arid in all of the Northern Hemisphere records, but the peak arid conditions of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and Heinrich event 1 differ in duration and intensity among regions. In addition, we also compare the aridity synthesis with modelling results using a global climate model (GCM). Indeed, geological archives and GCMs show agreement on the aridity pattern for the Holocene or deglaciation, for the LGM and for late MIS3.

Description: In this paper we introduce a Bayesian framework, which is explicit about prior assumptions, for using model ensembles and observations together to constrain future climate change. The emergent constraint approach has seen broad application in recent years, including studies constraining the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) using the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP). Most of these studies were based on ordinary least squares (OLS) fits between a variable of the climate state, such as tropical temperature, and climate sensitivity. Using our Bayesian method, and considering the LGM and mPWP separately, we obtain values of ECS of 2.7 K (0.6–5.2, 5th–95th percentiles) using the PMIP2, PMIP3, and PMIP4 datasets for the LGM and 2.3 K (0.5–4.4) with the PlioMIP1 and PlioMIP2 datasets for the mPWP. Restricting the ensembles to include only the most recent version of each model, we obtain 2.7 K (0.7–5.2) using the LGM and 2.3 K (0.4–4.5) using the mPWP. An advantage of the Bayesian framework is that it is possible to combine the two periods assuming they are independent, whereby we obtain a tighter constraint of 2.5 K (0.8–4.0) using the restricted ensemble. We have explored the sensitivity to our assumptions in the method, including considering structural uncertainty, and in the choice of models, and this leads to 95 % probability of climate sensitivity mostly below 5 K and only exceeding 6 K in a single and most uncertain case assuming a large structural uncertainty. The approach is compared with other approaches based on OLS, a Kalman filter method, and an alternative Bayesian method. An interesting implication of this work is that OLS-based emergent constraints on ECS generate tighter uncertainty estimates, in particular at the lower end, an artefact due to a flatter regression line in the case of lack of correlation. Although some fundamental challenges related to the use of emergent constraints remain, this paper provides a step towards a better foundation for their potential use in future probabilistic estimations of climate sensitivity.