Description: Highlights: • Multi-centennial oscillation with 100–200 years periods is evident in proxy data and model simulations during the Holocene. • Multi-centennial oscillation is a global signal and is more significant in the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes. • None of the external forcings is found to be the sole driver of the multi-centennial variability. • It indicates the multi-centennial oscillation may be due to potential internal drivers and essential feedbacks. Abstract: Variability on centennial to multi-centennial timescales is mentioned as a feature in reconstructions of the Holocene climate. As more long transient model simulations with complex climate models become available and efforts have been made to compile large proxy databases, there is now a unique opportunity to study multi-centennial variability with greater detail and a large amount of data than earlier. This paper presents a spectral analysis of transient Holocene simulations from 9 models and 120 proxy records to find the common signals related to oscillation periods and geographic dependencies and discuss the implications for the potential driving mechanisms. Multi-centennial variability is significant in most proxy records, with the dominant oscillation periods around 120–130 years and an average of 240 years. Spectra of model-based global mean temperature (GMT) agree well with proxy evidence with significant multi-centennial variability in all simulations with the dominant oscillation periods around 120–150 years. It indicates a comparatively good agreement between model and proxy data. A lack of latitudinal dependencies in terms of oscillation period is found in both the model and proxy data. However, all model simulations have the highest spectral density distributed over the Northern hemisphere high latitudes, which could indicate a particular variability sensitivity or potential driving mechanisms in this region. Five models also have differentiated forcings simulations with various combinations of forcing agents. Significant multi-centennial variability with oscillation periods between 100 and 200 years is found in all forcing scenarios, including those with only orbital forcing. The different forcings induce some variability in the system. Yet, none appear to be the predominant driver based on the spectral analysis. Solar irradiance has long been hypothesized to be a primary driver of multi-centennial variability. However, all the simulations without this forcing have shown significant multi-centennial variability. The results then indicate that internal mechanisms operate on multi-centennial timescales, and the North Atlantic-Arctic is a region of interest for this aspect.

Description: The spatial pattern of Antarctic surface air temperature variability on multi–decadal to multi–centennial time scales is poorly known because of the short instrumental records, the relatively small number of high–resolution paleoclimate observations, and biases in climate models. Here, changes in surface air temperature over Antarctica are reconstructed over the past two millennia using data assimilation constrained by different ice core water isotope records in order to identify robust signals. The comparison between previous statistically based temperature reconstructions and simulations covering the full Common Era driven by natural and anthropogenic forcings shows major discrepancies occurring in the period 1–1000 CE over East Antarctica, with the reconstructions displaying a warming over 1–500 CE that is not reproduced by the simulations. This suggests that the trends in the first millennium deduced from the statistically based reconstructions are unlikely to be entirely forced by external forcings. Our reconstructions show the high sensitivity of the 500-year temperature trend in Antarctica and its spatial distribution to selection of the records for the reconstructions, especially during 1–500 CE. A robust cooling over Antarctica during 501–1000 CE has been obtained in three data assimilation–based reconstructions with a larger magnitude in the WAIS than elsewhere over Antarctica, in agreement with previous estimates with the larger changes than simulated in climate models. The reconstructions for atmospheric circulation indicate that the pattern of temperature changes over 501–1000 CE is related to the positive trend of Southern Annular Mode and a deepening of Amundsen Sea Low. This confirms the role of internal variability in the temperature trends on multi–centennial scales.

Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 96 (2015): 921–938, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00117.1.

Description: El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring mode of tropical Pacific variability, with global impacts on society and natural ecosystems. While it has long been known that El Niño events display a diverse range of amplitudes, triggers, spatial patterns, and life cycles, the realization that ENSO’s impacts can be highly sensitive to this event-to-event diversity is driving a renewed interest in the subject. This paper surveys our current state of knowledge of ENSO diversity, identifies key gaps in understanding, and outlines some promising future research directions.

Description: AC acknowledges support from the National Science Foundation for this study.

Description: 2015-12-01