Description: Numerical simulations employing prognostic stable water isotopes can not only facilitate our understanding of hydrological processes and climate change but also allow for a direct comparison between isotope signals obtained from models and various archives. In the current work, we describe the performance and explore the potential of a new version of the Earth system model AWI-ESM (Alfred Wegener Institute Earth System Model), labeled AWI-ESM-2.1-wiso, in which we incorporated three isotope tracers into all relevant components of the water cycle. We present here the results of pre-industrial (PI) and mid-Holocene (MH) simulations. The model reproduces the observed PI isotope compositions in both precipitation and seawater well and captures their major differences from the MH conditions. The simulated relationship between the isotope composition in precipitation (δ18Op) and surface air temperature is very similar between the PI and MH conditions, and it is largely consistent with modern observations despite some regional model biases. The ratio of the MH–PI difference in δ18Op to the MH–PI difference in surface air temperature is comparable to proxy records over Greenland and Antarctica only when summertime air temperature is considered. An amount effect is evident over the North African monsoon domain, where a negative correlation between δ18Op and the amount of precipitation is simulated. As an example of model applications, we studied the onset and withdrawal date of the MH West African summer monsoon (WASM) using daily variables. We find that defining the WASM onset based on precipitation alone may yield erroneous results due to the substantial daily variations in precipitation, which may obscure the distinction between pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons. Combining precipitation and isotope indicators, we suggest in this work a novel method for identifying the commencement of the WASM. Moreover, we do not find an obvious difference between the MH and PI periods in terms of the mean onset of the WASM. However, an advancement in the WASM withdrawal is found in the MH compared to the PI period due to an earlier decline in insolation over the northern location of Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).

Description: The evolution of past global ice sheets is highly uncertain. One example is the missing ice problem during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 26 000-19 000 years before present) – an apparent 8-28 m discrepancy between far-field sea level indicators and modelled sea level from ice sheet reconstructions. In the absence of ice sheet reconstructions, researchers often use marine δ18O proxy records to infer ice volume prior to the LGM. We present a global ice sheet reconstruction for the past 80 000 years, called PaleoMIST 1.0, constructed independently of far-field sea level and δ18O proxy records. Our reconstruction is compatible with LGM far-field sea-level records without requiring extra ice volume, thus solving the missing ice problem. However, for Marine Isotope Stage 3 (57 000-29 000 years before present) - a pre-LGM period - our reconstruction does not match proxy-based sea level reconstructions, indicating the relationship between marine δ18O and sea level may be more complex than assumed.

Description: Changes in the magnitude of millennial-scale climate variability (MCV) during the Late Pleistocene occur as a function of changing background climate state over tens of thousands of years, an indirect consequence of slowly varying incoming solar radiation associated with changes in Earth’s orbit. However, whether astronomical forcing can stimulate MCV directly (without a change in the background state) remains to be determined. Here we use a comprehensive fully coupled climate model to demonstrate that orbitally driven insolation changes alone can give rise to spontaneous millennial-scale climate oscillations under intermediate glacial conditions. Our results demonstrate that an abrupt transition from warm interstadial to cold stadial conditions can be triggered directly by a precession-controlled increase in low-latitude boreal summer insolation and/or an obliquity-controlled decrease in high-latitude mean annual insolation, by modulating North Atlantic low-latitude hydroclimate and/or high-latitude sea ice–ocean–atmosphere interactions, respectively. Furthermore, contrasting insolation effects over the tropical versus subpolar North Atlantic, exerted by obliquity or precession, result in an oscillatory climate regime, even within an otherwise stable climate. With additional sensitivity experiments under different glacial–interglacial climate backgrounds, we synthesize a coherent theoretical framework for climate stability, elaborating the direct and indirect (dual) control by Earth’s orbital cycles on millennial-scale climate variability during the Pleistocene.

Description: Abstract Deglacial transitions of the middle to late Pleistocene (terminations) are linked to gradual changes in insolation accompanied by abrupt shifts in ocean circulation. However, the reason these deglacial abrupt events are so special compared with their sub-glacial-maximum analogues, in particular with respect to the exaggerated warming observed across Antarctica, remains unclear. Here we show that an increase in the relative importance of salt versus temperature stratification in the glacial deep South Atlantic decreases the potential cooling effect of waters that may be upwelled in response to abrupt perturbations in ocean circulation, as compared with sub-glacial-maximum conditions. Using a comprehensive coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model, we then demonstrate that an increase in deep-ocean salinity stratification stabilizes relatively warm waters in the glacial deep ocean, which amplifies the high southern latitude surface ocean temperature response to an abrupt weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during deglaciation. The mechanism can produce a doubling in the net rate of warming across Antarctica on a multicentennial timescale when starting from full glacial conditions (as compared with interglacial or subglacial conditions) and therefore helps to explain the large magnitude and rapidity of glacial terminations during the late Quaternary.

Description: In order to quantify the relative importance of individual boundary conditions and forcings, including greenhouse gases, ice sheets, and Earth's orbital parameters, on determining Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate, we have performed a series of LGM experiments using a state-of-the-art climate model AWI-ESM, in which different combinations of boundary conditions and forcings have been applied following the protocol of Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase 4 (PMIP4). In good agreement with observational proxy records, a general colder and drier climate is simulated in our full-forced LGM experiment as compared to the present-day simulation. Our simulated results from non-full-forced sensitivity simulations reveal that both the greenhouse gases and ice sheets play a major role in defining the anomalous LGM surface temperature compared to today. Decreased greenhouse gases in LGM as compared to present day leads to a non-uniform global cooling with polar amplification effect. The presence of LGM ice sheets favors a warming over the Arctic and northern Atlantic oceans in boreal winter, as well as a cooling over regions with the presence of ice sheets. The former is induced by a strengthening in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) transporting more heat to high latitudes, whilst the latter is due to the increased surface albedo and elevation of ice sheets. We find that the Northern Hemisphere monsoon precipitation is influenced by the opposing effects of LGM greenhouse gases and ice sheets. Specifically, the presence of ice sheets leads to significant drying in the Northern Hemisphere monsoon regions, while a reduction in greenhouse gases results in increased monsoon rainfall. Based on our model results, continental ice sheets exert a major control on atmospheric dynamics and the variability of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Moreover, our analysis also implies a nonlinearity in climate response to LGM boundary conditions and forcings.

Description: There has been extensive research into the nonlinear responses of the Earth system to astronomical forcing during the last glacial cycle. However, the speed and spatial geometry of ice sheet expansion to its largest extent at the Last Glacial Maximum 21 thousand years ago remains uncertain. Here we use an Earth system model with interactive ice sheets to show that distinct initial North American (Laurentide) ice sheets at 38 thousand years ago converge towards a configuration consistent with the Last Glacial Maximum due to feedbacks between atmospheric circulation and ice sheet geometry. Notably, ice advance speed and spatial pattern in our model are controlled by the amount of summer snowfall, which is dependent on moisture transport pathways from the North Atlantic warm pool linked to ice sheet geometry. The consequence of increased summer snowfall on the surface mass balance of the ice sheet is not only the direct increase in accumulation but the indirect reduction in melt through the snow/ice–albedo feedback. These feedbacks provide an effective mechanism for ice growth for a range of initial ice sheet states and may explain the rapid North American ice volume increase during the last ice age and potentially driving growth during previous glacial periods.

Description: The cold Last Glacial Maximum, around 20,000 years ago, provides a useful test case for evaluating whether climate models can simulate climate states distinct from the present. However, because of the indirect and uncertain nature of reconstructions of past environmental variables such as sea surface temperature, such evaluation remains ambiguous. Instead, here we evaluate simulations of Last Glacial Maximum climate by relying on the fundamental macroecological principle of decreasing community similarity with increasing thermal distance. Our analysis of planktonic foraminifera species assemblages from 647 sites reveals that the similarity-decay pattern that we obtain when the simulated ice age seawater temperatures are confronted with species assemblages from that time differs from the modern. This inconsistency between the modern temperature dependence of plankton species turnover and the simulations arises because the simulations show globally rather uniform cooling for the Last Glacial Maximum, whereas the species assemblages indicate stronger cooling in the subpolar North Atlantic. The implied steeper thermal gradient in the North Atlantic is more consistent with climate model simulations with a reduced Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Our approach demonstrates that macroecology can be used to robustly diagnose simulations of past climate and highlights the challenge of correctly resolving the spatial imprint of global change in climate models.

Description: Numerical simulations employing prognostic sta- ble water isotopes can not only facilitate our understanding of hydrological processes and climate change but also al- low for a direct comparison between isotope signals obtained from models and various archives. In the current work, we describe the performance and explore the potential of a new version of the Earth system model AWI-ESM (Alfred We- gener Institute Earth System Model), labeled AWI-ESM-2.1- wiso, in which we incorporated three isotope tracers into all relevant components of the water cycle. We present here the results of pre-industrial (PI) and mid-Holocene (MH) simula- tions. The model reproduces the observed PI isotope compo- sitions in both precipitation and seawater well and captures their major differences from the MH conditions. The sim- ulated relationship between the isotope composition in precipitation (d18Op) and surface air temperature is very similar between the PI and MH conditions, and it is largely consis- tent with modern observations despite some regional model biases. The ratio of the MH–PI difference in δ18Op to the MH–PI difference in surface air temperature is comparable to proxy records over Greenland and Antarctica only when summertime air temperature is considered. An amount effect is evident over the North African monsoon domain, where a negative correlation between δ18Op and the amount of pre- cipitation is simulated. As an example of model applications, we studied the onset and withdrawal date of the MH West African summer monsoon (WASM) using daily variables. We find that defining the WASM onset based on precipitation alone may yield erroneous results due to the substantial daily variations in precipitation, which may obscure the dis- tinction between pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons. Com- bining precipitation and isotope indicators, we suggest in this work a novel method for identifying the commencement of the WASM. Moreover, we do not find an obvious difference between the MH and PI periods in terms of the mean onset of the WASM. However, an advancement in the WASM with- drawal is found in the MH compared to the PI period due to an earlier decline in insolation over the northern location of Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).

Description: In order to quantify the relative importance of individual boundary conditions and forcings, including greenhouse gases, ice sheets, and Earth’s orbital parameters, on determining Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate, we have performed a series of LGM experiments using a state-of-the-art climate model AWI-ESM, in which different combinations of boundary conditions and forcings have been applied following the protocol of Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase 4 (PMIP4). In good agreement with observational proxy records, a general colder and drier climate is simulated in our full-forced LGM experiment as compared to the present-day simulation. Our simulated results from non-full-forced sensitivity simulations reveal that both the greenhouse gases and ice sheets play a major role in defining the anomalous LGM surface temperature compared to today. Decreased greenhouse gases in LGM as compared to present day leads to a non-uniform global cooling with polar amplification effect. The presence of LGM ice sheets favors a warming over the Arctic and northern Atlantic oceans in boreal winter, as well as a cooling over regions with the presence of ice sheets. The former is induced by a strengthening in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) transporting more heat to high latitudes, whilst the latter is due to the increased surface albedo and elevation of ice sheets. We find that the Northern Hemisphere monsoon precipitation is influenced by the opposing effects of LGM greenhouse gases and ice sheets. Specifically, the presence of ice sheets leads to significant drying in the Northern Hemisphere monsoon regions, while a reduction in greenhouse gases results in increased monsoon rainfall. Based on our model results, continental ice sheets exert a major control on atmospheric dynamics and the variability of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Moreover, our analysis also implies a nonlinearity in climate response to LGM boundary conditions and forcings.

Description: The response of evapotranspiration to anthropogenic warming is of critical importance for the water and carbon cycle. Contradictory conclusions about evapotranspiration changes are caused primarily by their brevity in time and sparsity in space, as well as the strong influence of internal variability. Here, we present the first gridded reconstruction of the summer (June, July, and August) vapor pressure deficit (VPD) for the past 4 centuries at the European level. This gridded reconstruction is based on 26 European tree ring oxygen isotope records and is obtained using a random forest approach. According to validation scores obtained with the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency, our reconstruction is robust over large parts of Europe since 1600, in particular for the westernmost and northernmost regions, where most tree ring records are located. Based on our reconstruction, we show that from the mid-1700s a trend towards higher summer VPD occurred in central Europe and the Mediterranean region that is related to a simultaneous increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation. This increasing summer VPD trend continues throughout the observational period and in recent times. Moreover, our summer VPD reconstruction helps to visualize the local and regional impacts of the current climate change, as well as to minimize statistical uncertainties of historical VPD variability. This paper provides also new insights into the relationship between summer VPD and large-scale atmospheric circulation, and we show that summer VPD has two preferred modes of variability, namely a NW-SE dipole-like mode and a N-S dipole-like mode. Furthermore, the interdisciplinary use of the data should be emphasized, as summer VPD is a crucial parameter for many climatological feedback processes in the Earth's surface system. The reconstructed summer VPD gridded data over the last 400 years are available at the following link: 10.5281/zenodo.5958836 (Balting et al., 2022).