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  • Copernicus GmbH  (17)
  • Chipperfield, Martyn P.  (17)
  • 1
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 21, No. 6 ( 2021-04-01), p. 5235-5251
    Abstract: Abstract. We have estimated the spatial changes in NO2 levels over different regions of India during the COVID-19 lockdown (25 March–3 May 2020) using the satellite-based tropospheric column NO2 observed by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and the Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI), as well as surface NO2 concentrations obtained from the Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) monitoring network. A substantial reduction in NO2 levels was observed across India during the lockdown compared to the same period during previous business-as-usual years, except for some regions that were influenced by anomalous fires in 2020. The reduction (negative change) over the urban agglomerations was substantial (∼ 20 %–40 %) and directly proportional to the urban size and population density. Rural regions across India also experienced lower NO2 values by ∼ 15 %–25 %. Localised enhancements in NO2 associated with isolated emission increase scattered across India were also detected. Observed percentage changes in satellite and surface observations were consistent across most regions and cities, but the surface observations were subject to larger variability depending on their proximity to the local emission sources. Observations also indicate NO2 enhancements of up to ∼ 25 % during the lockdown associated with fire emissions over the north-east of India and some parts of the central regions. In addition, the cities located near the large fire emission sources show much smaller NO2 reduction than other urban areas as the decrease at the surface was masked by enhancement in NO2 due to the transport of the fire emissions.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2021
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  • 2
    In: Geoscientific Model Development, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 13, No. 3 ( 2020-03-17), p. 1223-1266
    Abstract: Abstract. Here we present a description of the UKCA StratTrop chemical mechanism, which is used in the UKESM1 Earth system model for CMIP6. The StratTrop chemical mechanism is a merger of previously well-evaluated tropospheric and stratospheric mechanisms, and we provide results from a series of bespoke integrations to assess the overall performance of the model. We find that the StratTrop scheme performs well when compared to a wide array of observations. The analysis we present here focuses on key components of atmospheric composition, namely the performance of the model to simulate ozone in the stratosphere and troposphere and constituents that are important for ozone in these regions. We find that the results obtained for tropospheric ozone and its budget terms from the use of the StratTrop mechanism are sensitive to the host model; simulations with the same chemical mechanism run in an earlier version of the MetUM host model show a range of sensitivity to emissions that the current model does not fall within. Whilst the general model performance is suitable for use in the UKESM1 CMIP6 integrations, we note some shortcomings in the scheme that future targeted studies will address.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1991-9603
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2020
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  • 3
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 20, No. 21 ( 2020-11-13), p. 13627-13654
    Abstract: Abstract. Accurately quantifying volcanic impacts on climate is a key requirement for robust attribution of anthropogenic climate change. Here we use the Unified Model – United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosol (UM-UKCA) composition–climate model to simulate the global dispersion of the volcanic aerosol clouds from the three largest eruptions of the 20th century: 1963 Mt Agung, 1982 El Chichón, and 1991 Mt Pinatubo. The model has interactive stratospheric chemistry and aerosol microphysics, with coupled aerosol–radiation interactions for realistic composition–dynamics feedbacks. Our simulations align with the design of the Interactive Stratospheric Aerosol Model Intercomparison (ISA-MIP) “Historical Eruption SO2 Emissions Assessment”. For each eruption, we perform three-member ensemble model experiments for upper, mid-point, and lower estimates of SO2 emission, each re-initialised from a control run to approximately match the observed transition in the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the 6 months after the eruptions. With this experimental design, we assess how each eruption's emitted SO2 translates into a tropical reservoir of volcanic aerosol and analyse the subsequent dispersion to mid-latitudes. We compare the simulations to the volcanic forcing datasets (e.g. Space-based Stratospheric Aerosol Climatology (GloSSAC); Sato et al., 1993, and Ammann et al., 2003) that are used in historical integrations for the two most recent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) assessments. For Pinatubo and El Chichón, we assess the vertical extent of the simulated volcanic clouds by comparing modelled extinction to the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE-II) v7.0 satellite measurements and to 1964–1965 Northern Hemisphere ground-based lidar measurements for Agung. As an independent test for the simulated volcanic forcing after Pinatubo, we also compare simulated shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) top-of-the-atmosphere radiative forcings to the flux anomalies measured by the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) satellite instrument. For the Pinatubo simulations, an injection of 10 to 14 Tg SO2 gives the best match to the High Resolution Infrared Sounder (HIRS) satellite-derived global stratospheric sulfur burden, with good agreement also with SAGE-II mid-visible and near-infra-red extinction measurements. This 10–14 Tg range of emission also generates a heating of the tropical stratosphere that is consistent with the temperature anomaly present in the ERA-Interim reanalysis. For El Chichón, the simulations with 5 and 7 Tg SO2 emission give best agreement with the observations. However, these simulations predict a much deeper volcanic cloud than represented in the GloSSAC dataset, which is largely based on an interpolation between Stratospheric Aerosol Measurements (SAM-II) satellite and aircraft measurements. In contrast, these simulations show much better agreement during the SAGE-II period after October 1984. For 1963 Agung, the 9 Tg simulation compares best to the forcing datasets with the model capturing the lidar-observed signature of the altitude of peak extinction descending from 20 km in 1964 to 16 km in 1965. Overall, our results indicate that the downward adjustment to SO2 emission found to be required by several interactive modelling studies when simulating Pinatubo is also needed when simulating the Agung and El Chichón aerosol clouds. This strengthens the hypothesis that interactive stratospheric aerosol models may be missing an important removal or re-distribution process (e.g. effects of co-emitted ash) which changes how the tropical reservoir of volcanic aerosol evolves in the initial months after an eruption. Our model comparisons also identify potentially important inhomogeneities in the CMIP6 dataset for all three eruption periods that are hard to reconcile with variations predicted in the interactive stratospheric aerosol simulations. We also highlight large differences between the CMIP5 and CMIP6 volcanic aerosol datasets for the Agung and El Chichón periods. Future research should aim to reduce this uncertainty by reconciling the datasets with additional stratospheric aerosol observations.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2020
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  • 4
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 19, No. 15 ( 2019-08-12), p. 10087-10110
    Abstract: Abstract. We have derived values of the ultraviolet index (UVI) at solar noon using the Tropospheric Ultraviolet Model (TUV) driven by ozone, temperature and aerosol fields from climate simulations of the first phase of the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI-1). Since clouds remain one of the largest uncertainties in climate projections, we simulated only the clear-sky UVI. We compared the modelled UVI climatologies against present-day climatological values of UVI derived from both satellite data (the OMI-Aura OMUVBd product) and ground-based measurements (from the NDACC network). Depending on the region, relative differences between the UVI obtained from CCMI/TUV calculations and the ground-based measurements ranged between −5.9 % and 10.6 %. We then calculated the UVI evolution throughout the 21st century for the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5). Compared to 1960s values, we found an average increase in the UVI in 2100 (of 2 %–4 %) in the tropical belt (30∘ N–30∘ S). For the mid-latitudes, we observed a 1.8 % to 3.4 % increase in the Southern Hemisphere for RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 6.0 and found a 2.3 % decrease in RCP 8.5. Higher increases in UVI are projected in the Northern Hemisphere except for RCP 8.5. At high latitudes, ozone recovery is well identified and induces a complete return of mean UVI levels to 1960 values for RCP 8.5 in the Southern Hemisphere. In the Northern Hemisphere, UVI levels in 2100 are higher by 0.5 % to 5.5 % for RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 6.0 and they are lower by 7.9 % for RCP 8.5. We analysed the impacts of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) on UVI from 1960 by comparing CCMI sensitivity simulations (1960–2100) with fixed GHGs or ODSs at their respective 1960 levels. As expected with ODS fixed at their 1960 levels, there is no large decrease in ozone levels and consequently no sudden increase in UVI levels. With fixed GHG, we observed a delayed return of ozone to 1960 values, with a corresponding pattern of change observed on UVI, and looking at the UVI difference between 2090s values and 1960s values, we found an 8 % increase in the tropical belt during the summer of each hemisphere. Finally we show that, while in the Southern Hemisphere the UVI is mainly driven by total ozone column, in the Northern Hemisphere both total ozone column and aerosol optical depth drive UVI levels, with aerosol optical depth having twice as much influence on the UVI as total ozone column does.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2019
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  • 5
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 19, No. 1 ( 2019-01-16), p. 577-601
    Abstract: Abstract. Stratospheric ozone loss inside the Arctic polar vortex for the winters between 2004–2005 and 2012–2013 has been quantified using measurements from the space-borne Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS). For the first time, an evaluation has been performed of six different ozone loss estimation methods based on the same single observational dataset to determine the Arctic ozone loss (mixing ratio loss profiles and the partial-column ozone losses between 380 and 550 K). The methods used are the tracer-tracer correlation, the artificial tracer correlation, the average vortex profile descent, and the passive subtraction with model output from both Lagrangian and Eulerian chemical transport models (CTMs). For the tracer-tracer, the artificial tracer, and the average vortex profile descent approaches, various tracers have been used that are also measured by ACE-FTS. From these seven tracers investigated (CH4, N2O, HF, OCS, CFC-11, CFC-12, and CFC-113), we found that CH4, N2O, HF, and CFC-12 are the most suitable tracers for investigating polar stratospheric ozone depletion with ACE-FTS v3.5. The ozone loss estimates (in terms of the mixing ratio as well as total column ozone) are generally in good agreement between the different methods and among the different tracers. However, using the average vortex profile descent technique typically leads to smaller maximum losses (by approximately 15–30 DU) compared to all other methods. The passive subtraction method using output from CTMs generally results in slightly larger losses compared to the techniques that use ACE-FTS measurements only. The ozone loss computed, using both measurements and models, shows the greatest loss during the 2010–2011 Arctic winter. For that year, our results show that maximum ozone loss (2.1–2.7 ppmv) occurred at 460 K. The estimated partial-column ozone loss inside the polar vortex (between 380 and 550 K) using the different methods is 66–103, 61–95, 59–96, 41–89, and 85–122 DU for March 2005, 2007, 2008, 2010, and 2011, respectively. Ozone loss is difficult to diagnose for the Arctic winters during 2005–2006, 2008–2009, 2011–2012, and 2012–2013, because strong polar vortex disturbance or major sudden stratospheric warming events significantly perturbed the polar vortex, thereby limiting the number of measurements available for the analysis of ozone loss.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2019
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  • 6
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 18, No. 2 ( 2018-01-29), p. 1091-1114
    Abstract: Abstract. Ozone fields simulated for the first phase of the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI-1) will be used as forcing data in the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Here we assess, using reference and sensitivity simulations produced for CCMI-1, the suitability of CCMI-1 model results for this process, investigating the degree of consistency amongst models regarding their responses to variations in individual forcings. We consider the influences of methane, nitrous oxide, a combination of chlorinated or brominated ozone-depleting substances, and a combination of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. We find varying degrees of consistency in the models' responses in ozone to these individual forcings, including some considerable disagreement. In particular, the response of total-column ozone to these forcings is less consistent across the multi-model ensemble than profile comparisons. We analyse how stratospheric age of air, a commonly used diagnostic of stratospheric transport, responds to the forcings. For this diagnostic we find some salient differences in model behaviour, which may explain some of the findings for ozone. The findings imply that the ozone fields derived from CCMI-1 are subject to considerable uncertainties regarding the impacts of these anthropogenic forcings. We offer some thoughts on how to best approach the problem of generating a consensus ozone database from a multi-model ensemble such as CCMI-1.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2018
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  • 7
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 19, No. 2 ( 2019-01-22), p. 767-783
    Abstract: Abstract. Despite the recently reported beginning of a recovery in global stratospheric ozone (O3), an unexpected O3 decline in the tropical mid-stratosphere (around 30–35 km altitude) was observed in satellite measurements during the first decade of the 21st century. We use SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CHartographY (SCIAMACHY) measurements for the period 2004–2012 to confirm the significant O3 decline. The SCIAMACHY observations show that the decrease in O3 is accompanied by an increase in NO2. To reveal the causes of these observed O3 and NO2 changes, we performed simulations with the TOMCAT 3-D chemistry-transport model (CTM) using different chemical and dynamical forcings. For the 2004–2012 time period, the TOMCAT simulations reproduce the SCIAMACHY-observed O3 decrease and NO2 increase in the tropical mid-stratosphere. The simulations suggest that the positive changes in NO2 (around 7 % decade−1) are due to similar positive changes in reactive odd nitrogen (NOy), which are a result of a longer residence time of the source gas N2O and increased production via N2O + O(1D). The model simulations show a negative change of 10 % decade−1 in N2O that is most likely due to variations in the deep branch of the Brewer–Dobson Circulation (BDC). Interestingly, modelled annual mean “age of air” (AoA) does not show any significant changes in transport in the tropical mid-stratosphere during 2004–2012. However, further analysis of model results demonstrates significant seasonal variations. During the autumn months (September–October) there are positive AoA changes that imply transport slowdown and a longer residence time of N2O allowing for more conversion to NOy, which enhances O3 loss. During winter months (January–February) there are negative AoA changes, indicating faster N2O transport and less NOy production. Although the variations in AoA over a year result in a statistically insignificant linear change, non-linearities in the chemistry–transport interactions lead to a statistically significant negative N2O change.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2019
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  • 8
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 18, No. 11 ( 2018-06-15), p. 8389-8408
    Abstract: Abstract. We have used satellite observations and a simulation from the TOMCAT chemistry transport model (CTM) to investigate the influence of the well-known wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on European tropospheric composition. Under the positive phase of the NAO (NAO-high), strong westerlies tend to enhance transport of European pollution (e.g. nitrogen oxides, NOx; carbon monoxide, CO) away from anthropogenic source regions. In contrast, during the negative phase of the NAO (NAO-low), more stable meteorological conditions lead to a build-up of pollutants over these regions relative to the wintertime average pollution levels. However, the secondary pollutant ozone shows the opposite signal of larger values during NAO-high. NAO-high introduces Atlantic ozone-enriched air into Europe, while under NAO-low westerly transport of ozone is reduced, yielding lower values over Europe. Furthermore, ozone concentrations are also decreased by chemical loss through the reaction with accumulated primary pollutants such as nitric oxide (NO) in NAO-low. Peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) in the upper troposphere–lower stratosphere (UTLS) peaks over Iceland and southern Greenland in NAO-low, between 200 and 100 hPa, consistent with the trapping by an anticyclone at this altitude. Model simulations show that enhanced PAN over Iceland and southern Greenland in NAO-low is associated with vertical transport of polluted air from the mid-troposphere into the UTLS. Overall, this work shows that NAO circulation patterns are an important governing factor for European wintertime composition and air pollution.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2018
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  • 9
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 22, No. 2 ( 2022-01-19), p. 903-916
    Abstract: Abstract. Until now our understanding of the 11-year solar cycle signal (SCS) in stratospheric ozone has been largely based on high-quality but sparse ozone profiles from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) II or coarsely resolved ozone profiles from the nadir-viewing Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet Radiometer (SBUV) satellite instruments. Here, we analyse 16 years (2005–2020) of ozone profile measurements from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) instrument on the Aura satellite to estimate the 11-year SCS in stratospheric ozone. Our analysis of Aura-MLS data suggests a single-peak-structured SCS profile (about 3 % near 4 hPa or 40 km) in tropical stratospheric ozone, which is significantly different to the SAGE II and SBUV-based double-peak-structured SCS. We also find that MLS-observed ozone variations are more consistent with ozone from our control model simulation that uses Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) v2 solar fluxes. However, in the lowermost stratosphere modelled ozone shows a negligible SCS compared to about 1 % in Aura-MLS data. An ensemble of ordinary least squares (OLS) and three regularised (lasso, ridge and elastic net) linear regression models confirms the robustness of the estimated SCS. In addition, our analysis of MLS and model simulations shows a large SCS in the Antarctic lower stratosphere that was not seen in earlier studies. We also analyse chemical transport model simulations with alternative solar flux data. We find that in the upper (and middle) stratosphere the model simulation with Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) satellite solar fluxes is also consistent with the MLS-derived SCS and agrees well with the control simulation and one which uses Spectral and Total Irradiance Reconstructions (SATIRE) solar fluxes. Hence, our model simulation suggests that with recent adjustments and corrections, SORCE data can be used to analyse effects of solar flux variations. Furthermore, analysis of a simulation with fixed solar fluxes and one with fixed (annually repeating) meteorology confirms that the implicit dynamical SCS in the (re)analysis data used to force the model is not enough to simulate the observed SCS in the middle and upper stratospheric ozone. Finally, we argue that the overall significantly different SCS compared to previous estimates might be due to a combination of different factors such as much denser MLS measurements, almost linear stratospheric chlorine loading changes over the analysis period, variations in the stratospheric dynamics as well as relatively unperturbed stratospheric aerosol layer that might have influenced earlier analyses.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2022
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  • 10
    In: Earth System Science Data, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 10, No. 3 ( 2018-08-16), p. 1473-1490
    Abstract: Abstract. An updated and improved version of a global, vertically resolved, monthly mean zonal mean ozone database has been calculated – hereafter referred to as the BSVertOzone (Bodeker Scientific Vertical Ozone) database. Like its predecessor, it combines measurements from several satellite-based instruments and ozone profile measurements from the global ozonesonde network. Monthly mean zonal mean ozone concentrations in mixing ratio and number density are provided in 5∘ latitude bins, spanning 70 altitude levels (1 to 70 km), or 70 pressure levels that are approximately 1 km apart (878.4 to 0.046 hPa). Different data sets or “tiers” are provided: Tier 0 is based only on the available measurements and therefore does not completely cover the whole globe or the full vertical range uniformly; the Tier 0.5 monthly mean zonal means are calculated as a filled version of the Tier 0 database where missing monthly mean zonal mean values are estimated from correlations against a total column ozone (TCO) database. The Tier 0.5 data set includes the full range of measurement variability and is created as an intermediate step for the calculation of the Tier 1 data where a least squares regression model is used to attribute variability to various known forcing factors for ozone. Regression model fit coefficients are expanded in Fourier series and Legendre polynomials (to account for seasonality and latitudinal structure, respectively). Four different combinations of contributions from selected regression model basis functions result in four different Tier 1 data sets that can be used for comparisons with chemistry–climate model (CCM) simulations that do not exhibit the same unforced variability as reality (unless they are nudged towards reanalyses). Compared to previous versions of the database, this update includes additional satellite data sources and ozonesonde measurements to extend the database period to 2016. Additional improvements over the previous version of the database include the following: (i) adjustments of measurements to account for biases and drifts between different data sources (using a chemistry-transport model, CTM, simulation as a transfer standard), (ii) a more objective way to determine the optimum number of Fourier and Legendre expansions for the basis function fit coefficients, and (iii) the derivation of methodological and measurement uncertainties on each database value are traced through all data modification steps. Comparisons with the ozone database from SWOOSH (Stratospheric Water and OzOne Satellite Homogenized data set) show good agreement in many regions of the globe. Minor differences are caused by different bias adjustment procedures for the two databases. However, compared to SWOOSH, BSVertOzone additionally covers the troposphere. Version 1.0 of BSVertOzone is publicly available at https://doi.org/http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1217184.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1866-3516
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2018
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