In:
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 18, No. 15 ( 2018-08-13), p. 11277-11287
Abstract:
Abstract. Major mid-winter stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) are the largest
instance of wintertime variability in the Arctic stratosphere. Because SSWs
are able to cause significant surface weather anomalies on intra-seasonal
timescales, several previous studies have focused on their potential future
change, as might be induced by anthropogenic forcings. However, a wide range
of results have been reported, from a future increase in the frequency of
SSWs to an actual decrease. Several factors might explain these contradictory
results, notably the use of different metrics for the identification of SSWs
and the impact of large climatological biases in single-model studies. To
bring some clarity, we here revisit the question of future SSW changes,
using an identical set of metrics applied consistently across 12 different
models participating in the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative. Our analysis
reveals that no statistically significant change in the frequency of SSWs
will occur over the 21st century, irrespective of the metric used for the
identification of the event. Changes in other SSW characteristics – such as
their duration, deceleration of the polar night jet, and the tropospheric
forcing – are also assessed: again, we find no evidence of future changes over
the 21st century.
Type of Medium:
Online Resource
ISSN:
1680-7324
DOI:
10.5194/acp-18-11277-2018
DOI:
10.5194/acp-18-11277-2018-supplement
Language:
English
Publisher:
Copernicus GmbH
Publication Date:
2018
detail.hit.zdb_id:
2092549-9
detail.hit.zdb_id:
2069847-1
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