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  • 11
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    Impact Forecasting to Support Emergency Management of Natural Hazards (2020)
    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-02-08
    Description: Forecasting and early warning systems are important investments to protect lives, properties and livelihood. While early warning systems are frequently used to predict the magnitude, location and timing of potentially damaging events, these systems rarely provide impact estimates, such as the expected amount and distribution of physical damage, human consequences, disruption of services or financial loss. Complementing early warning systems with impact forecasts has a two‐fold advantage: it would provide decision makers with richer information to take informed decisions about emergency measures, and focus the attention of different disciplines on a common target. This would allow capitalizing on synergies between different disciplines and boosting the development of multi‐hazard early warning systems. This review discusses the state‐of‐the‐art in impact forecasting for a wide range of natural hazards. We outline the added value of impact‐based warnings compared to hazard forecasting for the emergency phase, indicate challenges and pitfalls, and synthesize the review results across hazard types most relevant for Europe. Plain language summary Forecasting and early warning systems are important investments to protect lives, properties and livelihood. While such systems are frequently used to predict the magnitude, location and timing of potentially damaging events, they rarely provide impact estimates, such as the expected physical damage, human consequences, disruption of services or financial loss. Extending hazard forecast systems to include impact estimates promises many benefits for the emergency phase, for instance, for organising evacuations. We review and compare the state‐of‐the‐art of impact forcasting across a wide range of natural hazards, and outline opportunities and key challenges for research and development of impact forecasting.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 12
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    Context‐dependent integrated stress resistance promotes a global invasive pest (2022)
    Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: In nature, insects concurrently face multiple environmental stressors, a scenario likely increasing with climate change. Integrated stress resistance (ISR) thus often improves fitness and could drive invasiveness, but how physiological mechanisms influence invasion has lacked examination. Here, we investigated cross tolerance to abiotic stress factors which may influence range limits in the South American tomato pinworm – a global invader that is an ecologically and socially damaging crop pest. Specifically, we tested the effects of prior rapid cold- and heat-hardening (RCH and RHH), fasting and desiccation on cold and heat tolerance traits, as well as starvation and desiccation survivability between T. absoluta life stages. Acclimation effects on critical thermal minima (CTmin) and maxima (CTmax) were inconsistent, showing significantly deleterious effects of RCH on adult CTmax and CTmin and, conversely, beneficial acclimation effects of RCH on larval CTmin. While no beneficial effects of desiccation acclimation were recorded for desiccation tolerance, fasted individuals had significantly higher survival in adults, whereas fasting negatively affected larval tolerances. Furthermore, fasted and desiccation acclimated adults had significantly higher starvation tolerance, showing strong evidence for cross-tolerance. Our results show context-dependent ISR traits that may promote T. absoluta fitness and competitiveness. Given the frequent overlapping occurrence of these divergent stressors, ISR reported here may thus partly elucidate the observed rapid global spread of T. absoluta into more stressful environments than expected. This information is vital in determining the underpinnings of multi-stressor responses, which are fundamental in forecasting species responses to changing environments and management responses.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 13
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    Phenotypic plasticity under rapid global changes: The intrinsic force for future seagrasses survival (2021)
    Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: Coastal oceans are particularly affected by rapid and extreme environmental changes with dramatic consequences for the entire ecosystem. Seagrasses are key ecosystem engineering or foundation species supporting diverse and productive ecosystems along the coastline that are particularly susceptible to fast environmental changes. In this context, the analysis of phenotypic plasticity could reveal important insights into seagrasses persistence, as it represents an individual property that allows species’ phenotypes to accommodate and react to fast environmental changes and stress. Many studies have provided different definitions of plasticity and related processes (acclimation and adaptation) resulting in a variety of associated terminology. Here, we review different ways to define phenotypic plasticity with particular reference to seagrass responses to single and multiple stressors. We relate plasticity to the shape of reaction norms, resulting from genotype by environment interactions, and examine its role in the presence of environmental shifts. The potential role of genetic and epigenetic changes in underlying seagrasses plasticity in face of environmental changes is also discussed. Different approaches aimed to assess local acclimation and adaptation in seagrasses are explored, explaining strengths and weaknesses based on the main results obtained from the most recent literature. We conclude that the implemented experimental approaches, whether performed with controlled or field experiments, provide new insights to explore the basis of plasticity in seagrasses. However, an improvement of molecular analysis and the application of multi‐factorial experiments are required to better explore genetic and epigenetic adjustments to rapid environmental shifts. These considerations revealed the potential for selecting the best phenotypes to promote assisted evolution with fundamental implications on restoration and preservation efforts.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 14
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    Taming the terminological tempest in invasion science (2024)
    Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-04-10
    Description: Standardised terminology in science is important for clarity of interpretation and communication. In invasion science - a dynamic and rapidly evolving discipline - the proliferation of technical terminology has lacked a standardised framework for its development. The result is a convoluted and inconsistent usage of terminology, with various discrepancies in descriptions of damage and interventions. A standardised framework is therefore needed for a clear, universally applicable, and consistent terminology to promote more effective communication across researchers, stakeholders, and policymakers. Inconsistencies in terminology stem from the exponential increase in scientific publications on the patterns and processes of biological invasions authored by experts from various disciplines and countries since the 1990s, as well as publications by legislators and policymakers focusing on practical applications, regulations, and management of resources. Aligning and standardising terminology across stakeholders remains a challenge in invasion science. Here, we review and evaluate the multiple terms used in invasion science (e.g. 'non-native', 'alien', 'invasive' or 'invader', 'exotic', 'non-indigenous', 'naturalised', 'pest') to propose a more simplified and standardised terminology. The streamlined framework we propose and translate into 28 other languages is based on the terms (i) 'non-native', denoting species transported beyond their natural biogeographic range, (ii) 'established non-native', i.e. those non-native species that have established self-sustaining populations in their new location(s) in the wild, and (iii) 'invasive non-native' - populations of established non-native species that have recently spread or are spreading rapidly in their invaded range actively or passively with or without human mediation. We also highlight the importance of conceptualising 'spread' for classifying invasiveness and 'impact' for management. Finally, we propose a protocol for classifying populations based on (i) dispersal mechanism, (ii) species origin, (iii) population status, and (iv) impact. Collectively and without introducing new terminology, the framework that we present aims to facilitate effective communication and collaboration in invasion science and management of non-native species.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 15
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    Geoengineered ocean vertical water exchange can accelerate global deoxygenation (2020)
    Wiley | AGU (American Geophysical Union)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-02-08
    Description: Ocean deoxygenation is a threat to marine ecosystems. We evaluated the potential of two ocean intervention technologies, i.e. “artificial downwelling (AD)” and “artificial upwelling (AU)”, for remedying the expansion of Oxygen Deficient Zones (ODZs). The model‐based assessment simulated AD and AU implementations for 80 years along the eastern Pacific ODZ. When AD was simulated by pumping surface seawater to the 178 ~ 457 m depth range of the ODZ, vertically integrated oxygen increased by up to 4.5% in the deployment region. Pumping water from 457 m depth to the surface (i.e. AU), where it can equilibrate with the atmosphere, increased the vertically integrated oxygen by 1.03%. However, both simulated AD and AU increased biological production via enhanced nutrient supply to the sea surface, resulting in enhanced export production and subsequent aerobic remineralization also outside of the actual implementation region, and an ultimate net decline of global oceanic oxygen.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 16
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    Sinking of Gelatinous Zooplankton Biomass Increases Deep Carbon Transfer Efficiency Globally (2019)
    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    In:  Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 33 (12). pp. 1764-1783.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-01-31
    Description: Gelatinous zooplankton (Cnidaria, Ctenophora, and Urochordata, namely, Thaliacea) are ubiquitous members of plankton communities linking primary production to higher trophic levels and the deep ocean by serving as food and transferring “jelly‐carbon” (jelly‐C) upon bloom collapse. Global biomass within the upper 200 m reaches 0.038 Pg C, which, with a 2–12 months life span, serves as the lower limit for annual jelly‐C production. Using over 90,000 data points from 1934 to 2011 from the Jellyfish Database Initiative as an indication of global biomass (JeDI: http://jedi.nceas.ucsb.edu, http://www.bco‐dmo.org/dataset/526852), upper ocean jelly‐C biomass and production estimates, organism vertical migration, jelly‐C sinking rates, and water column temperature profiles from GLODAPv2, we quantitatively estimate jelly‐C transfer efficiency based on Longhurst Provinces. From the upper 200 m production estimate of 0.038 Pg C year−1, 59–72% reaches 500 m, 46–54% reaches 1,000 m, 43–48% reaches 2,000 m, 32–40% reaches 3,000 m, and 25–33% reaches 4,500 m. This translates into ~0.03, 0.02, 0.01, and 0.01 Pg C year−1, transferred down to 500, 1,000, 2,000, and 4,500 m, respectively. Jelly‐C fluxes and transfer efficiencies can occasionally exceed phytodetrital‐based sediment trap estimates in localized open ocean and continental shelves areas under large gelatinous blooms or jelly‐C mass deposition events, but this remains ephemeral and transient in nature. This transfer of fast and permanently exported carbon reaching the ocean interior via jelly‐C constitutes an important component of the global biological soft‐tissue pump, and should be addressed in ocean biogeochemical models, in particular, at the local and regional scale.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: text
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    DOI: 10.1029/2019GB006265
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 17
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    Abiotic and biotic correlates of the occurrence, extent and cover of invasive aquatic Elodea nuttallii (2022)
    Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: 1. Biological invasions, especially invasive alien aquatic plants, are a major and growing ecological and socioeconomic problem worldwide. Freshwater systems are particularly vulnerable to invasion, where impacts of invasive alien species can damage ecological structure and function. Identifying abiotic and biotic factors that mediate successful invasions is a management priority. Our aim was to determine the environmental correlates of Elodea nuttallii; a globally significant invasive aquatic species. 2. Elodea nuttallii presence/absence (occurrence), extent (patch area) and percentage cover (density) was visually assessed from a boat throughout Lough Erne (approximately 144 km2), County Fermanagh, Northern Ireland during the active summer growth season (July–September). In addition, substrate type and zebra mussel Dreissena polymorpha occurrence was recorded. Fourteen water chemistry variables were collected monthly from 12 recording stations throughout the lake during the 9 years before the survey to spatially interpolate values and establish temporal trajectories in their change. Shoreline land use was derived from CORINE land cover maps. Environmental associations between E. nuttallii, substrate, D. polymorpha, water chemistry and land use were assessed. 3. Elodea nuttallii occurrence was positively associated with water conductivity, alkalinity, suspended solids, phosphorus (both total and soluble) and chlorophyll-a concentrations, but negatively associated with pH and total oxidised nitrogen. E. nuttallii patch extent and proportional cover were positively associated, to varying degrees, with the presence of D. polymorpha, biological oxygen demand, water clarity and soft substrate, but negatively associated with urban development and ammonium. 4. Elodea nuttallii displayed high levels of phenotypic plasticity in response to environmental variation, allowing it to adapt to a wide range of conditions and potentially gain competitive advantage over native or other invasive macrophytes. 5. It is evident that multiple abiotic and biotic factors, including facilitation by co-occurring invasive dreissenid mussels, interact to influence the distribution and abundance of E. nuttallii. Thus, it is necessary to consider a more comprehensive environmental context when planning Elodea management strategies.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 18
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    Distribution, drivers and population structure of the invasive alien snail Tarebia granifera in the Luvuvhu system, South Africa (2022)
    Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: Invasive alien species continue to spread and proliferate in waterways worldwide, but environmental drivers of invasion dynamics lack assessment. Knowledge gaps are pervasive in the Global South, where the frequent heavy human-modification of rivers provides high opportunity for invasion. In southern Africa, the spatio-temporal ecology of a widespread and high-impact invasive alien snail, Tarebia granifera, and its management status is understudied. Here, an ecological assessment was conducted at seven sites around Nandoni Reservoir on the Luvuvhu River in South Africa. The distribution and densities of T. granifera were mapped and the potential drivers of population structure were explored. T. granifera was widespread at sites impacted to varying extents due to anthropogenic activity, with densities exceeding 500 individuals per square meter at the most impacted areas. T. granifera predominantly preferred shallow and sandy environments, being significantly associated with sediment (i.e., chlorophyll-a, Mn, SOC, SOM) and water (i.e., pH, conductivity, TDS) variables. T. granifera seemed to exhibit two recruitment peaks in November and March, identified via size-based stock assessment. Sediment parameters (i.e., sediment organic matter, sediment organic carbon, manganese) and water chemistry (i.e., pH, total dissolved solids, conductivity) were found to be important in structuring T. granifera populations, with overall snail densities highest during the summer season. We provide important autecological information and insights on the distribution and extent of the spread of T. granifera. This may help in the development of invasive alien snail management action plans within the region, as well as modelling efforts to predict invasion patterns elsewhere based on environmental characteristics.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 19
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    Isoscape Models of the Southern Ocean: Predicting Spatial and Temporal Variability in Carbon and Nitrogen Isotope Compositions of Particulate Organic Matter (2021)
    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-14
    Description: Polar marine ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Warming temperatures, freshening seawater, and disruption to sea-ice formation potentially all have cascading effects on food webs. New approaches are needed to better understand spatiotemporal interactions among biogeochemical processes at the base of Southern Ocean food webs. In marine systems, isoscapes (models of the spatial variation in the stable isotopic composition) of carbon and nitrogen have proven useful in identifying spatial variation in a range of biogeochemical processes, such as nutrient utilization by phytoplankton. Isoscapes provide a baseline for interpreting stable isotope compositions of higher trophic level animals in movement, migration, and diet research. Here, we produce carbon and nitrogen isoscapes across the entire Southern Ocean (〉40°S) using surface particulate organic matter isotope data, collected over the past 50 years. We use Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation-based approaches to predict mean annual isoscapes and four seasonal isoscapes using a suite of environmental data as predictor variables. Clear spatial gradients in δ13C and δ15N values were predicted across the Southern Ocean, consistent with previous statistical and mechanistic views of isotopic variability in this region. We identify strong seasonal variability in both carbon and nitrogen isoscapes, with key implications for the use of static or annual average isoscape baselines in animal studies attempting to document seasonal migratory or foraging behaviors.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 20
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    Importance of geographic origin for invasion success: A case study of the North and Baltic Seas versus the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence River region (2016)
    Wiley
    In:  Ecology and Evolution, 6 (22). pp. 8318-8329.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-02-01
    Description: Recently, several studies indicated that species from the Ponto-Caspian region may be evolutionarily predisposed to become nonindigenous species (NIS); however, origin of NIS established in different regions has rarely been compared to confirm these statements. More importantly, if species from certain area/s are proven to be better colonizers, management strategies to control transport vectors coming from those areas must be more stringent, as prevention of new introductions is a cheaper and more effective strategy than eradication or control of established NIS populations. To determine whether species evolved in certain areas have inherent advantages over other species in colonizing new habitats, we explored NIS established in the North and Baltic Seas and Great Lakes–St. Lawrence River regions—two areas intensively studied in concern to NIS, highly invaded by Ponto-Caspian species and with different salinity patterns (marine vs. freshwater). We compared observed numbers of NIS in these two regions to expected numbers of NIS from major donor regions. The expected numbers were calculated based on the available species pool from donor regions, frequency of shipping transit, and an environmental match between donor and recipient regions. A total of 281 NIS established in the North and Baltic Seas and 188 in the Great Lakes–St. Lawrence River. Ponto-Caspian taxa colonized both types of habitats, saltwater areas of the North and Baltic Seas and freshwater of the Great Lakes–St. Lawrence River, in much higher numbers than expected. Propagule pressure (i.e., number of introduced individuals or introduction effort) is of great importance for establishment success of NIS; however in our study, either shipping vector or environmental match between regions did not clarify the high numbers of Ponto-Caspian taxa in our study areas. Although we cannot exclude the influence of other transport vectors, our findings suggest that the origin of the species plays an important role for the predisposition of successful invaders.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    DOI: 10.1002/ece3.2528
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