Description: Public fear for environmental and health impacts or potential leakage of CO2 from geological reservoirs is among the reasons why over the past decade CCS has not yet been deployed on a large enough scale so as to meaningfully contribute to mitigate climate change. Storage of CO2 under the seabed moves this climate mitigation option away from inhabited areas and could thereby take away some of the opposition towards this technology. Given that in the event of CO2 leakage for sub-seabed CCS the ocean would function as buffer for receiving this greenhouse gas, rather than the atmosphere, offshore CCS could particularly address concerns over the climatic impacts of CO2 seepage. In this paper we point out that recent geological studies confirm that leakage for individual offshore CCS operations may be highly unlikely from a technical point of view, if storage sites are well chosen, well managed and well monitored. But we argue that on a global long-term scale, for an ensemble of thousands or millions of storage sites, leakage of CO2 could take place in certain cases and/or countries for e.g. economic, institutional, legal or safety cultural reasons. We investigated what the impact could be in terms of temperature increase and ocean acidification if leakage would nevertheless occur, and addressed the question what the relative roles could be of on- and offshore CCS if mankind desires to divert the atmospheric damages resulting from climate change. For this purpose, we constructed a top-down energy-environment-economy model, with which we performed a probabilistic cost-benefit analysis of climate change mitigation with on- and offshore CCS as specific CO2 abatement options. One of our main conclusions is that even if there is non-zero leakage for CCS activity on a global scale, there is high probability that both onshore and offshore CCS could – on economic grounds – still account for anywhere between 20% and 80% of all future CO2 abatement efforts under a broad range of CCS cost assumptions.

Description: We have developed a global biogeographic classification of the mesopelagic zone to reflect the regional scales over which the ocean interior varies in terms of biodiversity and function. An integrated approach was necessary, as global gaps in information and variable sampling methods preclude strictly statistical approaches. A panel combining expertise in oceanography, geospatial mapping, and deep-sea biology convened to collate expert opinion on the distributional patterns of pelagic fauna relative to environmental proxies (temperature, salinity, and dissolved oxygen at mesopelagic depths). An iterative Delphi Method integrating additional biological and physical data was used to classify biogeographic ecoregions and to identify the location of ecoregion boundaries or inter-regions gradients. We define 33 global mesopelagic ecoregions. Of these, 20 are oceanic while 13 are ‘distant neritic.’ While each is driven by a complex of controlling factors, the putative primary driver of each ecoregion was identified. While work remains to be done to produce a comprehensive and robust mesopelagic biogeography (i.e., reflecting temporal variation), we believe that the classification set forth in this study will prove to be a useful and timely input to policy planning and management for conservation of deep-pelagic marine resources. In particular, it gives an indication of the spatial scale at which faunal communities are expected to be broadly similar in composition, and hence can inform application of ecosystem-based management approaches, marine spatial planning and the distribution and spacing of networks of representative protected areas

Description: Abstract Legal requirement in Europe asks for Ecosystem-Based Fisheries Management (EBFM) in European seas, including considerations of trophic interactions and minimization of negative impacts of fishing on food webs and ecosystem functioning. Focusing on the interaction between fisheries and ecosystem components, the trophic model presented here shows for the first time the “big picture” of the western Baltic Sea (WBS) food web by quantifying structure and flows between all trophic elements and the impact of fisheries that were and are active in the area, based on best available recent data. Model results show that fishing pressures exerted on the WBS since the early nineties of the past century forces not only top predators such as harbour porpoises and seals but also cod and other demersal fish to heavily compete for fish as food and to cover their dietary needs by shifting to organisms lower in the trophic web, mainly to benthic macrofauna and / or search for suitable prey in adjacent ecosystems such as Kattegat, Skagerrak, central Baltic Sea and North Sea. While common sense implementations of EBFM have been proposed, such as fishing all stocks below Fmsy and reducing fishing pressure even further for forage fish such as herring and sprat, few studies compared such fishing to alternative scenarios. Different options for EBFM, with regards to recovery of depleted stocks and sustainable future catches, are presented here based on the WBS ecosystem model, the legal framework given by the new Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) and the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) of the European Union. The model explores four legally valid future fishery scenarios: 1) business as usual, 2) maximum sustainable fishing (F = Fmsy), 3) half of Fmsy, and 4) EBFM with F = 0.5 Fmsy for forage fish and F = 0.8 Fmsy for other fish. In addition, a “No-fishing” scenario demonstrates, that neither individual stocks nor the whole system would collapse when all fishing activities from 2017 on would cease. Simulations show that “Business as usual” would perpetuate low 2016 catches from depleted stocks in an unstable ecosystem where endangered species may be lost. In contrast, an “EBFM” scenario - with herring and sprat fished at 0.5 Fmsy level and cod and other stocks fished at 0.8 Fmsy level - allows the recovery of all stocks with strongly increased catches close to the maximum (at Fmsy) for cod and flatfish and catches similar to the 2016 level for herring and sprat but with strongly reduced fishing effort. Model and methodology presented here are considered suitable to assess MSFD Criterion D4C2 in the WBS.

Description: Rapid anthropogenic climate change is a major threat to ocean biodiversity, increasing the challenge for marine conservation. Strategic conservation planning, and more recently marine spatial planning (MSP) are among the most promising management tools to operationalize and enforce marine conservation. As yet, climate change is seldom incorporated into these plans, potentially curtailing the effectiveness of designated conservation areas under novel environmental conditions. Reliable assessment of current and future climate change threats requires the ability to map climate-driven eco-evolutionary changes and the identification of vulnerable and resistant populations. Here we explore the heretofore largely unrecognized value of information gained from physiological, ecological and evolutionary studies to MSP under ongoing climate change. For example, we explore how climate threats do not necessarily follow latitudinal gradients, such that both risk hotspots and refugia occur in mosaic distributions along species ranges - patterns that may be undetectable without knowledge of biological vulnerabilities at regional and local scales. Because co-occurring species can exhibit markedly different vulnerabilities to the same environmental changes, making ecological predictions requires, when possible, measuring the fundamental niches of key species (e.g., with the use of thermotolerance experiments). Forecasting also requires development of tools to identify the likelihood of community-level thresholds or tipping points (e.g., with the use of near-real world mesocosms), and assessment of the potential of populations for adaptation (e.g., with common garden experiments). Such research will facilitate better predictive models for the fate of populations, species, ecosystems and their functions. Ultimately, unfolding the complexity of the processes underlying climate change impacts will facilitate quantifying and reducing uncertainty in spatial planning decision processes and will enable the development of practical tools to validate adaptive conservation strategies.

Description: Human-induced climate change such as ocean warming and acidification, threatens marine ecosystems and associated fisheries. In the Western Baltic cod stock socio-ecological links are particularly important, with many relying on cod for their livelihoods. A series of recent experiments revealed that cod populations are negatively affected by climate change, but an ecological-economic assessment of the combined effects, and advice on optimal adaptive management are still missing. For Western Baltic cod, the increase in larval mortality due to ocean acidification has experimentally been quantified. Time-series analysis allows calculating the temperature effect on recruitment. Here, we include both processes in a stock-recruitment relationship, which is part of an ecological-economic optimization model. The goal was to quantify the effects of climate change on the triple bottom line (ecological, economic, social) of the Western Baltic cod fishery. Ocean warming has an overall negative effect on cod recruitment in the Baltic. Optimal management would react by lowering fishing mortality with increasing temperature, to create a buffer against climate change impacts. The negative effects cannot be fully compensated, but even at 3 °C warming above the 2014 level, a reduced but viable fishery would be possible. However, when accounting for combined effects of ocean warming and acidification, even optimal fisheries management cannot adapt to changes beyond a warming of +1.5° above the current level. Our results highlight the need for multi-factorial climate change research, in order to provide the best available, most realistic, and precautionary advice for conservation of exploited species as well as their connected socio-economic systems.

Description: Highlights • European Union Blue Growth is assessed by set of 18 indicators for 15 EU coastal states. • The results put into question that the EU has achieved comprehensive blue growth. • Unsustainable development is in particular driven by increasing fishing mortality. Abstract The Sustainable Development Goal for the oceans and coasts (SDG 14) as part of the 2030 Agenda can be considered as an important step towards achieving comprehensive blue growth. Here, we selected a set of 18 indicators to measure progress against SDG 14 for 15 EU coastal countries in the Baltic and the North Sea and the Atlantic Ocean since 2012. In our assessment we distinguish between a concept of weak and strong sustainability, assuming high and low substitution possibilities, respectively. Our results indicate that there are countries which managed to achieve sustainable development under both concepts of sustainability (most notably Estonia, achieving the strongest improvement), but that there are also countries which failed to achieve sustainable development under both concepts (most notably Ireland and Belgium, experiencing the strongest decline). Unsustainable development is in particular driven by increasing fishing mortality and reduced willingness to set total allowable catch in accordance with scientific advice.

Description: Summary The Bathymetrists Seamounts (BSM) are located north of the volcanic Sierra Leone Rise in the eastern Atlantic between 6° and 9°N. The three W-E, N-S and NE-SW striking directions of the seamounts indicate a clear structural control for the emplacement of these volcanoes. The origin of the melts, their relationship to the Sierra Leone Rise and the role of the faults in the formation of the melts are unknown as the BSM could be explained by plume related volcanism or decompression melting beneath deep (transform) faults. The SEDIS-cruise M152/2 of RV METEOR strove for a better understanding of the life cycle of submarine volcanoes and their effect on the oceanic lithosphere in the oceanic intraplate setting of the BSM and the relationship to the Sierra Leone Rise. The aims were: 1) to understand the interaction between crustal thickness, tectonics and volcanic phases, 2) to investigate the structural, chronological and petrological evolution of individual seamounts and seamount chains, 3) to review slope failures and resulting mass flow processes. We addressed these objectives by more than 4000 km highresolution reflection seismic and more than 5000 km of parametric echosounder, multi-beam, and gravity and magnetic profiles. Rock samples for ground truthing and geochemical research have been collected during 14 dredge stations. We further determined the concentrations in surface seawater and air and the state of air-sea exchange of a number of nowadays globally banned pesticides, polychlorinated biphenyls, brominated flame retardants, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and their derivatives. Zusammenfassung Die Bathymetrists Seeberge liegen nördlich der Sierra Leone Schwelle, einer vulkanischen Plattform im östlichen Atlantik zwischen 6° und 9° N. Diese submarinen Vulkane gruppieren sich entlang W-E, N-S und NE-SW Trends, was eine strukturelle Kontrolle der Vulkanentstehung indiziert. Die Schmelzentstehung sind unbekannt und können mit PlumeVulkanismus oder Dekompressionsschmelzen unter bisher nicht untersuchten Störungen und tiefen Transformstörungen zusammenhängen. Der Bezug zur Sierra Leone Schwelle ist ebenfalls unbekannt. Im Zuge der SEDIS-Expedition M152/2 mit FS METEOR wurde der Lebenszyklus von Unterwasservulkanen und deren geochemischen Einfluss auf die ozeanische Lithosphäre der Bathymetrists Seeberge untersucht. Anhand der profilhaften geophysikalischer Messungen und Dredge-Proben wollen wir 1) die Wechselwirkung zwischen Krustenmächtigkeit, Tektonik und Vulkanismus verstehen, 2) die strukturelle, chronologische und petrologische Entwicklung von Vulkanen und Vulkanketten untersuchen, und 3) Auslösemechanismen, Transportprozesse und Volumina von Hangrutschungen studieren. Zur Bearbeitung der wissenschaftlichen Fragen sammelten wir mehr als 4000 km mehrkanal-reflexionsseismischer und mehr als 5000 km parametrische Sedimentecholot, Fächerlot, Schwere und Magnetik-Profile. Für die geochemischen Arbeiten sammelten wir an 14 Stationen Gesteinsproben unter Einsatz einer Dredge. Die regelmäßige Beprobung der Luft und des Oberflächenwassers diente der Bestimmung der Konzentration von heute weltweit verbotenen Pestiziden, polychlorierten Biphenylen, bromierten Flammschutzmitteln, polyzyklischen aromatischen Kohlenwasserstoffen und deren Derivaten und um den Austausch zwischen Luft und Meer weiter zu verstehen.

Description: The model SEAPODYM (Spatial Ecosystem And Population Dynamics) has now reached a degree of maturity allowing to use it for testing management scenarios and to implement operational monitoring. It is proposed to implement an operational forecast system for the Atlantic albacore tuna. The system will use physical field (temperature, currents and primary production) from Copernicus CMEMS. The sensitivity to improved physical variables with data assimilation will be analysed and the interest of this operational production of tuna stock distributions evaluated in collaboration with colleagues involved in the management of tuna fisheries at ICCAT and FAO, and the AtlantOS fitness for this modelling analysed [D8.9]

Description: Highlights • Records of hard-bottom communities show regional differences in community dynamics. • Regionally, signs of regime shift were detected. • Shift can be explained by the decline of the foundation species Mytilus sp. • Modelling process revealed three environmental variables explaining the decline. • Regional differences in larval dispersal could explain contrary Mytilus recoveries. Abstract Ecological processes modulate ecosystem functioning and services. Foundation species are those exerting intense control on such processes as both their existence and loss have profound implications on the structure of ecological communities. For the distinction between random fluctuations and directional regime shifts in community composition, long-term records are of strategic need. In this study we present the monitoring of benthic hard-bottom communities over 11 years along seven stations in the SW Baltic Sea. Regional differences were found between the communities of Kiel and Lübeck bights, with the former area displaying signs of regime shift. The decline and near disappearance of the foundational species Mytilus edulis from settlement panels deployed in Kiel Bight correlated with three environmental variables: sea surface temperature, water current speed and chlorophyll a concentration. Thus, low spring temperatures, in some cases reinforced by local maxima of chlorophyll a, correlated with reduced recruitment of Mytilus. Moreover, regional differences of larval dispersal and population connectivity could explain the rapid recovery after disturbance of the mussel populations in Lübeck Bight in contrast to Kiel Bight. Our findings underscore the relevance of long-term monitoring programmes to detect the interactive impacts of global climatic and regional environmental drivers.

Description: Report on the current observing status in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre and the South Atlantic subtropical gyre, containing the results of the investigation on regional observing activities, systems, and connectivity in relation to climate and ecosystems