Beschreibung: The ability of state‐of‐the‐art regional climate models to simulate cyclone activity in the Arctic is assessed based on an ensemble of 13 simulations from 11 models from the Arctic‐CORDEX initiative. Some models employ large‐scale spectral nudging techniques. Cyclone characteristics simulated by the ensemble are compared with the results forced by four reanalyses (ERA‐Interim, National Centers for Environmental Prediction‐Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, National Aeronautics and Space Administration‐Modern‐Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Version 2, and Japan Meteorological Agency‐Japanese 55‐year reanalysis) in winter and summer for 1981–2010 period. In addition, we compare cyclone statistics between ERA‐Interim and the Arctic System Reanalysis reanalyses for 2000–2010. Biases in cyclone frequency, intensity, and size over the Arctic are also quantified. Variations in cyclone frequency across the models are partly attributed to the differences in cyclone frequency over land. The variations across the models are largest for small and shallow cyclones for both seasons. A connection between biases in the zonal wind at 200 hPa and cyclone characteristics is found for both seasons. Most models underestimate zonal wind speed in both seasons, which likely leads to underestimation of cyclone mean depth and deep cyclone frequency in the Arctic. In general, the regional climate models are able to represent the spatial distribution of cyclone characteristics in the Arctic but models that employ large‐scale spectral nudging show a better agreement with ERA‐Interim reanalysis than the rest of the models. Trends also exhibit the benefits of nudging. Models with spectral nudging are able to reproduce the cyclone trends, whereas most of the nonnudged models fail to do so. However, the cyclone characteristics and trends are sensitive to the choice of nudged variables.

Beschreibung: Inflow of Atlantic water (AW) from Fram Strait and the Barents Sea into the Arctic Ocean conditions the intermediate (100–1000 m) waters of the Arctic Ocean Eurasian margins. While over the Siberian margin the Fram Strait AW branch (FSBW) has exhibited continuous dramatic warming beginning in 2004, the tendency of the Barents Sea AW branch (BSBW) has remained poorly known. Here we document the contrary cooling tendency of the BSBW through the analysis of observational data collected from the icebreaker Kapitan Dranitsyn over the continental slope of the Eurasian Basin in 2005 and 2006. The CTD data from the R.V. Polarstern cruise in 1995 were used as a reference point for evaluating external atmospheric and sea-ice forcing and oxygen isotope analysis. Our data show that in 2006 the BSBW core was saltier (by ∼0.037), cooler (by ∼0.41 °C), denser (by ∼0.04 kg/m3), deeper (by 150–200 m), and relatively better ventilated (by 7–8 μmol/kg of dissolved oxygen, or by 1.1–1.7% of saturation) compared with 2005. We hypothesize that the shift of the meridional wind from off-shore to on-shore direction during the BSBW translation through the Barents and northern Kara seas results in longer surface residence time for the BSBW sampled in 2006 compared with samples from 2005. The cooler, more saline, and better-ventilated BSBW sampled in 2006 may result from longer upstream translation through the Barents and northern Kara seas where the BSBW was modified by sea-ice formation and interaction with atmosphere. The data for stable oxygen isotopes from 1995 and 2006 reveals amplified brine modification of the BSBW core sampled downstream in 2006, which supports the assumption of an increased upstream residence time as indicated by wind patterns and dissolved oxygen values.

Beschreibung: We present a new framework for global ocean- sea-ice model simulations based on phase 2 of the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP-2), making use of the surface dataset based on the Japanese 55-year atmospheric reanalysis for driving ocean-sea-ice models (JRA55-do).We motivate the use of OMIP-2 over the framework for the first phase of OMIP (OMIP-1), previously referred to as the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (COREs), via the evaluation of OMIP-1 and OMIP-2 simulations from 11 state-of-the-science global ocean-sea-ice models. In the present evaluation, multi-model ensemble means and spreads are calculated separately for the OMIP-1 and OMIP-2 simulations and overall performance is assessed considering metrics commonly used by ocean modelers. Both OMIP-1 and OMIP-2 multi-model ensemble ranges capture observations in more than 80% of the time and region for most metrics, with the multi-model ensemble spread greatly exceeding the difference between the means of the two datasets. Many features, including some climatologically relevant ocean circulation indices, are very similar between OMIP-1 and OMIP- 2 simulations, and yet we could also identify key qualitative improvements in transitioning from OMIP-1 to OMIP- 2. For example, the sea surface temperatures of the OMIP- 2 simulations reproduce the observed global warming during the 1980s and 1990s, as well as the warming slowdown in the 2000s and the more recent accelerated warming, which were absent in OMIP-1, noting that the last feature is part of the design of OMIP-2 because OMIP-1 forcing stopped in 2009. A negative bias in the sea-ice concentration in summer of both hemispheres in OMIP-1 is significantly reduced in OMIP-2. The overall reproducibility of both seasonal and interannual variations in sea surface temperature and sea surface height (dynamic sea level) is improved in OMIP-2. These improvements represent a new capability of the OMIP-2 framework for evaluating processlevel responses using simulation results. Regarding the sensitivity of individual models to the change in forcing, the models show well-ordered responses for the metrics that are directly forced, while they show less organized responses for those that require complex model adjustments. Many of the remaining common model biases may be attributed either to errors in representing important processes in ocean-sea-ice models, some of which are expected to be reduced by using finer horizontal and/or vertical resolutions, or to shared biases and limitations in the atmospheric forcing. In particular, further efforts are warranted to resolve remaining issues in OMIP-2 such as the warm bias in the upper layer, the mismatch between the observed and simulated variability of heat content and thermosteric sea level before 1990s, and the erroneous representation of deep and bottom water formations and circulations. We suggest that such problems can be resolved through collaboration between those developing models (including parameterizations) and forcing datasets. Overall, the present assessment justifies our recommendation that future model development and analysis studies use the OMIP-2 framework.

Beschreibung: The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) represents the zonally integrated stream function of meridional volume transport in the Atlantic Basin. The AMOC plays an important role in transporting heat meridionally in the climate system. Observations suggest a heat transport by the AMOC of 1.3 PW at 26°N—a latitude which is close to where the Atlantic northward heat transport is thought to reach its maximum. This shapes the climate of the North Atlantic region as we know it today. In recent years there has been significant progress both in our ability to observe the AMOC in nature and to simulate it in numerical models. Most previous modeling investigations of the AMOC and its impact on climate have relied on models with horizontal resolution that does not resolve ocean mesoscale eddies and the dynamics of the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic Current system. As a result of recent increases in computing power, models are now being run that are able to represent mesoscale ocean dynamics and the circulation features that rely on them. The aim of this review is to describe new insights into the AMOC provided by high-resolution models. Furthermore, we will describe how high-resolution model simulations can help resolve outstanding challenges in our understanding of the AMOC.

Beschreibung: Changes in the characteristics of cyclone activity (frequency, depth and size) in the Arctic are analyzed based on simulations with state-of-the-art regional climate models (RCMs) from the Arctic-CORDEX initiative and global climate models (GCMs) from CMIP5 under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. Most of RCMs show an increase of cyclone frequency in winter (DJF) and a decrease in summer (JJA) to the end of the 21st century. However, in one half of the RCMs, cyclones become weaker and substantially smaller in winter and deeper and larger in summer. RCMs as well as GCMs show an increase of cyclone frequency over the Baffin Bay, Barents Sea, north of Greenland, Canadian Archipelago, and a decrease over the Nordic Seas, Kara and Beaufort Seas and over the sub-arctic continental regions in winter. In summer, the models simulate an increase of cyclone frequency over the Central Arctic and Greenland Sea and a decrease over the Norwegian and Kara Seas by the end of the 21st century. The decrease is also found over the high-latitude continental areas, in particular, over east Siberia and Alaska. The sensitivity of the RCMs' projections to the boundary conditions and model physics is estimated. In general, different lateral boundary conditions from the GCMs have larger effects on the simulated RCM projections than the differences in RCMs' setup and/or physics.

Beschreibung: Through the analysis of observational mooring data collected at the northeastern Laptev Sea continental slope in 2004–2007, we document a hydrographic seasonal signal in the intermediate Atlantic Water (AW) layer, with generally higher temperature and salinity from December–January to May–July and lower values from May–July to December–January. At the mooring position, this seasonal signal dominates, contributing up to 75% of the total variance. Our data suggest that the entire AW layer down to at least 840 m is affected by seasonal cycling, although the strength of the seasonal signal in temperature and salinity reduces from 260 m (±0.25°C and ±0.025 psu) to 840 m (±0.05°C and ±0.005 psu). The seasonal velocity signal is substantially weaker, strongly masked by high-frequency variability, and lags the thermohaline cycle by 45–75 days. We hypothesize that our mooring record shows a time history of the along-margin propagation of the AW seasonal signal carried downstream by the AW boundary current. Our analysis suggests that the seasonal signal in the Fram Strait Branch of AW (FSBW) at 260 m is predominantly translated from Fram Strait, while the seasonality in the Barents Sea branch of AW (BSBW) domain (at 840 m) is attributed instead to the seasonal signal input from the Barents Sea. However, the characteristic signature of the BSBW seasonal dynamics observed through the entire AW layer leads us to speculate that BSBW also plays a role in seasonally modifying the properties of the FSBW.

Beschreibung: Historical hydrographic data (1940s–2010) show a distinct cross-slope difference of the lower halocline water (LHW) over the Laptev Sea continental margins. Over the slope, the LHW is on average warmer and saltier by 0.2°C and 0.5 psu, respectively, relative to the off-slope LHW. The LHW temperature time series constructed from the on-slope historical records are related to the temperature of the Atlantic Water (AW) boundary current transporting warm water from the North Atlantic Ocean. In contrast, the on-slope LHW salinity is linked to the sea ice and wind forcing over the potential upstream source region in the Barents and northern Kara Seas, as also indicated by hydrodynamic model results. Over the Laptev Sea continental margin, saltier LHW favors weaker salinity stratification that, in turn, contributes to enhanced vertical mixing with underlying AW.

Beschreibung: With the increase in computational power, ocean models with kilometer-scale resolution have emerged over the last decade. These models have been used for quantifying the energetic exchanges between spatial scales, informing the design of eddy parametrizations, and preparing observing networks. The increase in resolution, however, has drastically increased the size of model outputs, making it difficult to transfer and analyze the data. It remains, nonetheless, of primary importance to assess more systematically the realism of these models. Here, we showcase a cloud-based analysis framework proposed by the Pangeo project that aims to tackle such distribution and analysis challenges. We analyze the output of eight submesoscale-permitting simulations, all on the cloud, for a crossover region of the upcoming Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) altimeter mission near the Gulf Stream separation. The cloud-based analysis framework (i) minimizes the cost of duplicating and storing ghost copies of data and (ii) allows for seamless sharing of analysis results amongst collaborators. We describe the framework and provide example analyses (e.g., sea-surface height variability, submesoscale vertical buoyancy fluxes, and comparison to predictions from the mixed-layer instability parametrization). Basin- to global-scale, submesoscale-permitting models are still at their early stage of development; their cost and carbon footprints are also rather large. It would, therefore, benefit the community to document the different model configurations for future best practices. We also argue that an emphasis on data analysis strategies would be crucial for improving the models themselves.

Beschreibung: We developed a new version of the Alfred Wegener Institute Climate Model (AWI-CM3), which has higher skills in representing the observed climatology and better computational efficiency than its predecessors. Its ocean component FESOM2 (Finite-volumE Sea ice-Ocean Model) has the multi-resolution functionality typical of unstructured-mesh models while still featuring a scalability and efficiency similar to regular-grid models. The atmospheric component OpenIFS (CY43R3) enables the use of the latest developments in the numerical-weather-prediction community in climate sciences. In this paper we describe the coupling of the model components and evaluate the model performance on a variable-resolution (25-125 km) ocean mesh and a 61 km atmosphere grid, which serves as a reference and starting point for other ongoing research activities with AWI-CM3. This includes the exploration of high and variable resolution and the development of a full Earth system model as well as the creation of a new sea ice prediction system. At this early development stage and with the given coarse to medium resolutions, the model already features above-CMIP6-average skills (where CMIP6 denotes Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6) in representing the climatology and competitive model throughput. Finally we identify remaining biases and suggest further improvements to be made to the model.