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  • 1
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    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    In:  Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 122 (4). 2830-2846 .
    Publication Date: 2020-02-06
    Description: The upstream sources and pathways of the Denmark Strait Overflow Water and their variability have been investigated using a high-resolution model hindcast. This global simulation covers the period from 1948 to 2009 and uses a fine model mesh (1/20°) to resolve mesoscale features and the complex current structure north of Iceland explicitly. The three sources of the Denmark Strait Overflow, the shelfbreak East Greenland Current (EGC), the separated EGC, and the North Icelandic Jet, have been analyzed using Eulerian and Lagrangian diagnostics. The shelfbreak EGC contributes the largest fraction in terms of volume and freshwater transport to the Denmark Strait Overflow and is the main driver of the overflow variability. The North Icelandic Jet contributes the densest water to the Denmark Strait Overflow and shows only small temporal transport variations. During summer, the net volume and freshwater transports to the south are reduced. On interannual time scales, these transports are highly correlated with the large-scale wind stress curl around Iceland and, to some extent, influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation, with enhanced southward transports during positive phases. The Lagrangian trajectories support the existence of a hypothesized overturning loop along the shelfbreak north of Iceland, where water carried by the North Icelandic Irminger Current is transformed and feeds the North Icelandic Jet. Monitoring these two currents and the region north of the Iceland shelfbreak could provide the potential to track long-term changes in the Denmark Strait Overflow and thus also the AMOC.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 2
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    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    In:  Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 123 (2). pp. 1471-1484.
    Publication Date: 2021-02-08
    Description: The variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) may play a role in sea surface temperature predictions on seasonal to decadal time scales. Therefore, AMOC seasonal cycles are a potential baseline for interpreting predictions. Here we present estimates for the seasonal cycle of transports of volume, temperature, and freshwater associated with the upper limb of the AMOC in the eastern subpolar North Atlantic on the Extended Ellett Line hydrographic section between Scotland and Iceland. Due to weather, ship‐based observations are primarily in summer. Recent glider observations during other seasons present an opportunity to investigate the seasonal variability in the upper layer of the AMOC. First, we document a new method to quality control and merge ship, float, and glider hydrographic observations. This method accounts for the different spatial sampling rates of the three platforms. The merged observations are used to compute seasonal cycles of volume, temperature, and freshwater transports in the Rockall Trough. These estimates are similar to the seasonal cycles in two eddy‐resolving ocean models. Volume transport appears to be the primary factor modulating other Rockall Trough transports. Finally, we show that the weakest transports occur in summer, consistent with seasonal changes in the regional‐scale wind stress curl. Although the seasonal cycle is weak compared to other variability in this region, the amplitude of the seasonal cycle in the Rockall Trough, roughly 0.5–1 Sv about a mean of 3.4 Sv, may account for up to 7–14% of the heat flux between Scotland and Greenland.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2019-09-23
    Description: Understanding the causes of the observed expansion of tropical ocean's oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) is hampered by large biases in the representation of oxygen distribution in climate models, pointing to incorrectly represented mechanisms. Here we assess the oxygen budget in a global biogeochemical circulation model, focusing on the Atlantic Ocean. While a coarse (0.5°) configuration displays the common bias of too large and too intense OMZs, the oxygen concentration in an eddying (0.1°) configuration is higher and closer to observations. This improvement is traced to a stronger oxygen supply by a more realistic representation of the equatorial and off-equatorial undercurrents, outweighing the concurrent increase in oxygen consumption associated with the stronger nutrient supply. The sensitivity of the eastern tropical Atlantic oxygen budget to the equatorial current intensity suggests that temporal changes in the eastward oxygen transport from the well-oxygenated western boundary region might partly explain variations in the OMZs.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 4
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    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters, 41 (11). pp. 3972-3978.
    Publication Date: 2019-09-23
    Description: The abyssal warming around Antarctica is one of the most prominent multidecadal signals of change in the global ocean. Here we investigate its dynamical impacts on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) by performing a set of experiments with the ocean-sea ice model NEMO-LIM2 at 1/2 degrees horizontal resolution. The simulations suggest that the ongoing warming of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW), already affecting much of the Southern Hemisphere with a rate of up to 0.05 degrees C decade(-1), has important implications for the large-scale meridional overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean. While the abyssal northward flow of AABW is weakening, we find the upper AMOC cell to progressively strengthen by 5-10% in response to deep density changes in the South Atlantic. The simulations suggest that the AABW-induced strengthening of the AMOC is already extending into the subtropical North Atlantic, implying that the process may counteract the projected decrease of the AMOC in the next decades.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2020-02-18
    Description: All climate models predict a freshening of the North Atlantic at high latitude that may induce an abrupt change of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (hereafter AMOC) if it resides in the bistable regime, where both a strong and a weak state coexist. The latter remains uncertain as there is no consensus among observations and ocean reanalyses, where the AMOC is bistable, versus most climate models that reproduce a mono-stable strong AMOC. A series of four hindcast simulations of the global ocean at 1/12° resolution, which is presently unique, are used to diagnose freshwater transport by the AMOC in the South Atlantic, an indicator of AMOC bistability. In all simulations, the AMOC resides in the bistable regime: it exports freshwater southward in the South Atlantic, implying a positive salt advection feedback that would act to amplify a decreasing trend in subarctic deep water formation as projected in climate scenarios.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 6
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    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    In:  Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 119 (9). pp. 6221-6237.
    Publication Date: 2019-09-23
    Description: Previous studies have shown that ENSO's anomalous equatorial winds, including the observed southward shift of zonal winds that occurs around the event peak, can be reconstructed with the first two Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) of equatorial region wind stresses. Using a high-resolution ocean general circulation model, we investigate the effect of these two EOFs on changes in warm water volume (WWV), interhemispheric mass transports, and Indonesian Throughflow (ITF). Wind stress anomalies associated with the first EOF produce changes in WWV that are dynamically consistent with the conceptual recharge oscillator paradigm. The ITF is found to heavily damp these WWV changes, reducing their variance by half. Wind stress anomalies associated with the second EOF, which depicts the southward wind shift, are responsible for WWV changes that are of comparable magnitude to those driven by the first mode. The southward wind shift is also responsible for the majority of the observed interhemispheric upper ocean mass exchanges. These winds transfer mass between the Northern and the Southern Hemisphere during El Niño events. Whilst water is transferred in the opposite direction during La Niña events, the magnitude of this exchange is roughly half of that seen during El Niño events. Thus, the discharging of WWV during El Niño events is meridionally asymmetric, while the WWV recharging during a La Niña event is largely symmetric. The inclusion of the southward wind shift is also shown to allow ENSO to exchange mass with much higher latitudes than that allowed by the first EOF alone.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 7
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    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters, 40 (6). pp. 1138-1143.
    Publication Date: 2020-02-18
    Description: Recent work suggests that changes of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) winds led to an increase in Agulhas leakage and a corresponding salinification of the Atlantic. Climate model projections for the 21st century predict a progressive southward migration and intensification of the SH westerlies. The potential effects on the ocean circulation of such an anthropogenic trend in wind stress are studied here with a high-resolution ocean model forced by a step-function change in SH wind stress that involves a 7% increase in westerlies strength and a 2° shift in the zero wind stress curl. The model simulation suggests a rapid dynamic adjustment of Agulhas leakage by 4.5 Sv, about a third of its original value, after a few years. The change in leakage is reflected in a concomitant change in the transport of the South Atlantic subtropical gyre, but leads only to a small increase in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) of O(1 Sv) after three decades. A main effect of the increasing inflow of Indian Ocean waters with potential long-term ramifications for the AMOC is the salinification and densification of upper-thermocline waters in the South Atlantic, which extends into the North Atlantic within the first three decades.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2019-09-23
    Description: The upper ocean circulation of the Pacific and Indian Oceans is connected through both the Indonesian Throughflow north of Australia and the Tasman leakage around its south. The relative importance of these two pathways is examined using virtual Lagrangian particles in a high-resolution nested ocean model. The unprecedented combination of a long integration time within an eddy-permitting ocean model simulation allows the first assessment of the interannual variability of these pathways in a realistic setting. The mean Indonesian Throughflow, as diagnosed by the particles, is 14.3 Sv, considerably higher than the diagnosed average Tasman leakage of 4.2 Sv. The time series of Indonesian Throughflow agrees well with the Eulerian transport through the major Indonesian Passages, validating the Lagrangian approach using transport-tagged particles. While the Indonesian Throughflow is mainly associated with upper ocean pathways, the Tasman leakage is concentrated in the 400–900 m depth range at subtropical latitudes. Over the effective period considered (1968–1994), no apparent relationship is found between the Tasman leakage and Indonesian Throughflow. However, the Indonesian Throughflow transport correlates with ENSO. During strong La Niñas, more water of Southern Hemisphere origin flows through Makassar, Moluccas, Ombai, and Timor Straits, but less through Moluccas Strait. In general, each strait responds differently to ENSO, highlighting the complex nature of the ENSO-ITF interaction.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 9
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    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    In:  Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 119 (11). pp. 7772-7793.
    Publication Date: 2019-09-23
    Description: The southwestern part of the subpolar North Atlantic east of the Grand Banks of Newfoundland and Flemish Cap is a crucial area for the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Here the exchange between subpolar and subtropical gyre takes place, southward flowing cold and fresh water is replaced by northward flowing warm and salty water within the North Atlantic Current (NAC). As part of a long-term experiment, the circulation east of Flemish Cap has been studied by seven repeat hydrographic sections along 47 degrees N (2003-2011), a 2 year time series of current velocities at the continental slope (2009-2011), 19 years of sea surface height, and 47 years of output from an eddy resolving ocean circulation model. The structure of the flow field in the measurements and the model shows a deep reaching NAC with adjacent recirculation and two distinct cores of southward flow in the Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC): one core above the continental slope with maximum velocities at mid-depth and the second farther east with bottom-intensified velocities. The western core of the DWBC is rather stable, while the offshore core shows high temporal variability that in the model is correlated with the NAC strength. About 30 Sv of deep water flow southward below a density of sigma=27.68 kg m(-3) in the DWBC. The NAC transports about 110 Sv northward, approximately 15 Sv originating from the DWBC, and 75 Sv recirculating locally east of the NAC, leaving 20 Sv to be supplied by the NAC from the south.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 10
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    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters, 41 (24). pp. 8926-8934.
    Publication Date: 2019-09-23
    Description: Previous studies found a negative trend in oxygen concentrations in tropical regions during the last decades. Employing a biogeochemical circulation model, we highlight the importance of wind driven ocean transport associated with the Subtropical-Tropical Cells (STCs) in setting the oxygen levels in the tropical ocean. The observed and simulated slowdown of the STCs by 30 percent from the 1960s to the 1990s caused a decrease in oxygen transport to the tropics. Transport of phosphate was similarly reduced, decreasing export production and respiration. The effects of physical transport and biological consumption partly compensate, damping oxygen interannual and decadal variability. Our results suggest that the observed residual oxygen trend in the tropical Pacific is mainly driven by changes in oxygen transport. Accordingly, the observed recent strengthening of the STCs leads us to expect a pause in the oxygen decrease or even an increase of tropical Pacific oxygen values in the near future.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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