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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2023-02-08
    Description: Ecosystem connectivity is an essential consideration for marine spatial planning of competing interests in the deep sea. Immobile, adult communities are connected through freely floating larvae, depending on new recruits for their health and to adapt to external pressures. We hypothesize that the vertical swimming ability of deep-sea larvae, before they permanently settle at the bottom, is one way larvae can control dispersal. We test this hypothesis with more than 3x108 simulated particles with a range of active swimming behaviours embedded within the currents of a high-resolution ocean model. Despite much stronger horizontal ocean currents, vertical swimming of simulated larvae can have an order of magnitude impact on dispersal. These strong relationships between larval dispersal, pathways, and active swimming demonstrate that lack of data on larval behaviour traits is a serious impediment to modelling deep-sea ecosystem connectivity; this uncertainty greatly limits our ability to develop ecologically coherent marine protected area networks.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2023-02-08
    Description: Rapid increases in upper 700‐m Indian Ocean heat content (IOHC) since the 2000s have focused attention on its role during the recent global surface warming hiatus. Here, we use ocean model simulations to assess distinct multidecadal IOHC variations since the 1960s and explore the relative contributions from wind stress and buoyancy forcing regionally and with depth. Multidecadal wind forcing counteracted IOHC increases due to buoyancy forcing from the 1960s to the 1990s. Wind and buoyancy forcing contribute positively since the mid‐2000s, accounting for the drastic IOHC change. Distinct timing and structure of upper ocean temperature changes in the eastern and western Indian Ocean are linked to the pathway how multidecadal wind forcing associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation is transmitted and affects IOHC through local and remote winds. Progressive shoaling of the equatorial thermocline—of importance for low‐frequency variations in Indian Ocean Dipole occurrence—appears to be dominated by multidecadal variations in wind forcing.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2023-02-08
    Description: The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) represents the zonally integrated stream function of meridional volume transport in the Atlantic Basin. The AMOC plays an important role in transporting heat meridionally in the climate system. Observations suggest a heat transport by the AMOC of 1.3 PW at 26°N—a latitude which is close to where the Atlantic northward heat transport is thought to reach its maximum. This shapes the climate of the North Atlantic region as we know it today. In recent years there has been significant progress both in our ability to observe the AMOC in nature and to simulate it in numerical models. Most previous modeling investigations of the AMOC and its impact on climate have relied on models with horizontal resolution that does not resolve ocean mesoscale eddies and the dynamics of the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic Current system. As a result of recent increases in computing power, models are now being run that are able to represent mesoscale ocean dynamics and the circulation features that rely on them. The aim of this review is to describe new insights into the AMOC provided by high-resolution models. Furthermore, we will describe how high-resolution model simulations can help resolve outstanding challenges in our understanding of the AMOC.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: Warming of the North Atlantic region in climate history often was associated with massive melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet. To identify the meltwater’s impacts and isolate these from internal variability and other global warming factors, we run single-forcing simulations including small ensembles using three complex climate models differing only in their ocean components. In 200-year long pre-industrial climate simulations, we identify robust consequences of abruptly increasing Greenland runoff by 0.05 Sv: sea-level rise of 44±10 cm, subpolar North Atlantic surface cooling of 0.7˚C and a moderate AMOC decline of 1.1–2.0 Sv. The latter two emerge in under three decades—and reverse on the same timescale after the perturbation ends in year 100. The ocean translates the step-change perturbation into a multi-decadal to centennial signature in the deep overturning circulation. In all simulations, internal variability creates notable uncertainty in estimating trends, time of emergence and duration of the response.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: Agulhas leakage, the transport of warm and salty waters from the Indian Ocean into the South Atlantic, has been suggested to increase under anthropogenic climate change, due to strengthening Southern Hemisphere westerly winds. The resulting enhanced salt transport into the South Atlantic may counteract the projected weakening of the Atlantic overturning circulation through warming and ice melting. Here we combine existing and new observation- and model-based Agulhas leakage estimates to robustly quantify its decadal evolution since the 1960s. We find that Agulhas leakage very likely increased between the mid-1960s and mid-1980s, in agreement with strengthening winds. Our models further suggest that increased leakage was related to enhanced transport outside eddies and coincided with strengthened Atlantic overturning circulation. Yet, it appears unlikely that Agulhas leakage substantially increased since the 1990s, despite continuously strengthening winds. Our results stress the need to better understand decadal leakage variability to detect and predict anthropogenic trends.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: The Makassar Strait, the main passageway of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF), is an important component of Indo-Pacific climate through its inter-basin redistribution of heat and freshwater. Observational studies suggest that wind-driven freshwater advection from the marginal seas into the Makassar Strait modulates the strait's surface transport. However, direct observations are too short (〈15 years) to resolve variability on decadal timescales. Here we use a series of global ocean simulations to assess the advected freshwater contributions to ITF transport across a range of timescales. The simulated seasonal and interannual freshwater dynamics are consistent with previous studies. On decadal timescales, we find that wind-driven advection of South China Sea (SCS) waters into the Makassar Strait modulates upper-ocean ITF transport. Atmospheric circulation changes associated with Pacific decadal variability appear to drive this mechanism via Pacific lower-latitude western boundary current interactions that affect the SCS circulation. Key Points: - A global ocean model is used to show how freshwater impacts the decadal variability of transport through the main Indonesian Throughflow pathway - Wind-driven advection of South China Sea freshwater induces an upstream pressure gradient that reduces transport - Freshwater input is modulated by atmospheric circulation changes associated with Pacific decadal variability
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: Deep convection and associated deep water formation are key processes for climate variability, since they impact the oceanic uptake of heat and trace gases and alter the structure and strength of the global overturning circulation. For long, deep convection in the subpolar North Atlantic was thought to be confined to the central Labrador Sea in the western subpolar gyre (SPG). However, there is increasing observational evidence that deep convection also has occurred in the eastern SPG south of Cape Farewell and in the Irminger Sea, in particular, in 2015–2018. Here we assess this recent event in the context of the temporal evolution of spatial deep convection patterns in the SPG since the mid-twentieth century, using realistic eddy-rich ocean model simulations. These reveal a large interannual variability with changing contributions of the eastern SPG to the total deep convection volume. Notably, in the late 1980s to early 1990s, the period with highest deep convection intensity in the Labrador Sea related to a persistent positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, the relative contribution of the eastern SPG was small. In contrast, in 2015–2018, deep convection occurred with an unprecedented large relative contribution of the eastern SPG. This is partly linked to a smaller north-westward extent of deep convection in the Labrador Sea compared to previous periods of intensified deep convection, and may be a first fingerprint of freshening trends in the Labrador Sea potentially associated with enhanced Greenland melting and the oceanic advection of the 2012–2016 eastern North Atlantic fresh anomaly.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key component of the climate through its transport of heat in the North Atlantic Ocean. Decadal changes in the AMOC, whether through internal variability or anthropogenically forced weakening, therefore have wide-ranging impacts. In this Review, we synthesize the understanding of contemporary decadal variability in the AMOC, bringing together evidence from observations, ocean reanalyses, forced models and AMOC proxies. Since 1980, there is evidence for periods of strengthening and weakening, although the magnitudes of change (5–25%) are uncertain. In the subpolar North Atlantic, the AMOC strengthened until the mid-1990s and then weakened until the early 2010s, with some evidence of a strengthening thereafter; these changes are probably linked to buoyancy forcing related to the North Atlantic Oscillation. In the subtropics, there is some evidence of the AMOC strengthening from 2001 to 2005 and strong evidence of a weakening from 2005 to 2014. Such large interannual and decadal variability complicates the detection of ongoing long-term trends, but does not preclude a weakening associated with anthropogenic warming. Research priorities include developing robust and sustainable solutions for the long-term monitoring of the AMOC, observation–modelling collaborations to improve the representation of processes in the North Atlantic and better ways to distinguish anthropogenic weakening from internal variability.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: While forced ocean hindcast simulations are useful for a wide range of applications, a key limitation is their inability to simulate ocean-atmosphere feedbacks. As a consequence, they need to rely on artificial choices such as sea surface salinity restoring and other corrections affecting the surface freshwater fluxes. Fully coupled models overcome these limitations, but lack the correct timing of variability due to weaker observational constraints. This leads to a mismatch between forced and coupled models on interannual to decadal timescales. A possibility to combine the advantages of both modelling strategies is to apply a partial coupling (PCPL), i.e. replacing the surface winds stress in the ocean component by wind stress derived from reanalysis. To identify the capabilities, limitations and possible use cases of partial coupling, we perform a fully coupled, two partially coupled and an ocean-only experiment using an all-Atlantic nested ocean configuration at eddying resolution in a global climate model. We show that the correct timing of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) variability in PCPL experiments is robust on timescales below 5 years. Mid-latitude wind stress curl changes contribute to decadal AMOC variability, but North Atlantic buoyancy fluxes are not significantly altered by incorporating reanalysed wind stress anomalies, limiting the success of PCPL on this timescale. Long term trends of the AMOC in PCPL mode are consistent with fully coupled model experiments under historic atmospheric boundary conditions, suggesting that a partially coupled model is still able to simulate the important ocean-atmosphere feedbacks necessary to maintain a stable AMOC.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: Because new observations have revealed that the Labrador Sea is not the primary source for waters in the lower limb of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) during the Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Programme (OSNAP) period, it seems timely to re-examine the traditional interpretation of pathways and property variability for the AMOC lower limb from the subpolar gyre to 26.5 degrees N. In order to better understand these connections, Lagrangian experiments were conducted within an eddy-rich ocean model to track upper North Atlantic Deep Water (uNADW), defined by density, between the OSNAP line and 26.5 degrees N as well as within the Labrador Sea. The experiments reveal that 77% of uNADW at 26.5 degrees N is directly advected from the OSNAP West section along the boundary current and interior pathways west of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. More precisely, the Labrador Sea is a main gateway for uNADW sourced from the Irminger Sea, while particles connecting OSNAP East to 26.5 degrees N are exclusively advected from the Iceland Basin and Rockall Trough along the eastern flank of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. Although the pathways between OSNAP West and 26.5 degrees N are only associated with a net formation of 1.1 Sv into the uNADW layer, they show large density changes within the layer. Similarly, as the particles transit through the Labrador Sea, they undergo substantial freshening and cooling that contributes to further densification within the uNADW layer. Key Points: - The large majority of upper North Atlantic Deep Water (uNADW) sourced from the Irminger Sea transits through the Labrador Sea before reaching 26.5°N - Interior pathways along the eastern flank of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge connect the Iceland Basin and Rockall Trough to 26.5°N - Though uNADW is mainly sourced in the eastern subpolar gyre, its transit in the Labrador Sea is associated with further property changes
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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