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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key component of the climate through its transport of heat in the North Atlantic Ocean. Decadal changes in the AMOC, whether through internal variability or anthropogenically forced weakening, therefore have wide-ranging impacts. In this Review, we synthesize the understanding of contemporary decadal variability in the AMOC, bringing together evidence from observations, ocean reanalyses, forced models and AMOC proxies. Since 1980, there is evidence for periods of strengthening and weakening, although the magnitudes of change (5–25%) are uncertain. In the subpolar North Atlantic, the AMOC strengthened until the mid-1990s and then weakened until the early 2010s, with some evidence of a strengthening thereafter; these changes are probably linked to buoyancy forcing related to the North Atlantic Oscillation. In the subtropics, there is some evidence of the AMOC strengthening from 2001 to 2005 and strong evidence of a weakening from 2005 to 2014. Such large interannual and decadal variability complicates the detection of ongoing long-term trends, but does not preclude a weakening associated with anthropogenic warming. Research priorities include developing robust and sustainable solutions for the long-term monitoring of the AMOC, observation–modelling collaborations to improve the representation of processes in the North Atlantic and better ways to distinguish anthropogenic weakening from internal variability.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: text
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 101(11), (2020): E1891-E1913, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0209.1
    Description: The Indian Ocean Observing System (IndOOS), established in 2006, is a multinational network of sustained oceanic measurements that underpin understanding and forecasting of weather and climate for the Indian Ocean region and beyond. Almost one-third of humanity lives around the Indian Ocean, many in countries dependent on fisheries and rain-fed agriculture that are vulnerable to climate variability and extremes. The Indian Ocean alone has absorbed a quarter of the global oceanic heat uptake over the last two decades and the fate of this heat and its impact on future change is unknown. Climate models project accelerating sea level rise, more frequent extremes in monsoon rainfall, and decreasing oceanic productivity. In view of these new scientific challenges, a 3-yr international review of the IndOOS by more than 60 scientific experts now highlights the need for an enhanced observing network that can better meet societal challenges, and provide more reliable forecasts. Here we present core findings from this review, including the need for 1) chemical, biological, and ecosystem measurements alongside physical parameters; 2) expansion into the western tropics to improve understanding of the monsoon circulation; 3) better-resolved upper ocean processes to improve understanding of air–sea coupling and yield better subseasonal to seasonal predictions; and 4) expansion into key coastal regions and the deep ocean to better constrain the basinwide energy budget. These goals will require new agreements and partnerships with and among Indian Ocean rim countries, creating opportunities for them to enhance their monitoring and forecasting capacity as part of IndOOS-2.
    Description: We thank the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and its core project on Climate and Ocean: Variability, Predictability and Change (CLIVAR), the Indian Ocean Global Ocean Observing System (IOGOOS), the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO (IOC-UNESCO), the Integrated Marine Biosphere Research (IMBeR) project, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) for providing the financial support to bring international scientists together to conduct this review. We thank the members of the independent review board that provided detailed feedbacks on the review report that is summarized in this article: P. E. Dexter, M. Krug, J. McCreary, R. Matear, C. Moloney, and S. Wijffels. PMEL Contribution 5041. C. Ummenhofer acknowledges support from The Andrew W. Mellon Foundation Award for Innovative Research.
    Description: 2021-05-01
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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