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  • 1
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    Influences of Pacific Climate Variability on Decadal Subsurface Ocean Heat Content Variations in the Indian Ocean (2018)
    AMS (American Meteorological Society)
    In:  Journal of Climate, 31 (10). pp. 4157-4174.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-02-08
    Description: Decadal variabilities in Indian Ocean subsurface ocean heat content (OHC; 50–300 m) since the 1950s are examined using ocean reanalyses. This study elaborates on how Pacific variability modulates the Indian Ocean on decadal time scales through both oceanic and atmospheric pathways. High correlations between OHC and thermocline depth variations across the entire Indian Ocean Basin suggest that OHC variability is primarily driven by thermocline fluctuations. The spatial pattern of the leading mode of decadal Indian Ocean OHC variability closely matches the regression pattern of OHC on the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO), emphasizing the role of the Pacific Ocean in determining Indian Ocean OHC decadal variability. Further analyses identify different mechanisms by which the Pacific influences the eastern and western Indian Ocean. IPO-related anomalies from the Pacific propagate mainly through oceanic pathways in the Maritime Continent to impact the eastern Indian Ocean. By contrast, in the western Indian Ocean, the IPO induces wind-driven Ekman pumping in the central Indian Ocean via the atmospheric bridge, which in turn modifies conditions in the southwestern Indian Ocean via westward-propagating Rossby waves. To confirm this, a linear Rossby wave model is forced with wind stresses and eastern boundary conditions based on reanalyses. This linear model skillfully reproduces observed sea surface height anomalies and highlights both the oceanic connection in the eastern Indian Ocean and the role of wind-driven Ekman pumping in the west. These findings are also reproduced by OGCM hindcast experiments forced by interannual atmospheric boundary conditions applied only over the Pacific and Indian Oceans, respectively.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0654.1
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 2
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    Multidecadal Indian Ocean variability linked to the Pacific and implications for pre-conditioning Indian Ocean Dipole events (2017)
    AMS (American Meteorological Society)
    In:  Journal of Climate, 30 (5). pp. 1739-1751.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-02-06
    Description: The Indian Ocean has sustained robust surface warming in recent decades, but the role of multi-decadal variability remains unclear. Using ocean model hindcasts, characteristics of low-frequency Indian Ocean temperature variations are explored. Simulated upper-ocean temperature changes across the Indian Ocean in the hindcast are consistent with those recorded in observational products and ocean reanalyses. Indian Ocean temperatures exhibit strong warming trends since the 1950s limited to the surface and south of 30°S, while extensive subsurface cooling occurs over much of the tropical Indian Ocean. Previous work focused on diagnosing causes of these long-term trends in the Indian Ocean over the second half of the 20th Century. Instead, the temporal evolution of Indian Ocean subsurface heat content is shown here to reveal distinct multi-decadal variations associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the long-term trends are thus interpreted to result from aliasing of the low-frequency variability. Transmission of the multi-decadal signal occurs via an oceanic pathway through the Indonesian Throughflow and is manifest across the Indian Ocean centered along 12°S as westward propagating Rossby waves modulating thermocline and subsurface heat content variations. Resulting low-frequency changes in the eastern Indian Ocean thermocline depth are associated with decadal variations in the frequency of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events, with positive IOD events unusually common in the 1960s and 1990s with a relatively shallow thermocline. In contrast, the deeper thermocline depth in the 1970s and 1980s is associated with frequent negative IOD and rare positive IOD events. Changes in Pacific wind forcing in recent decades and associated rapid increases in Indian Ocean subsurface heat content can thus affect the basin’s leading mode of variability, with implications for regional climate and vulnerable societies in surrounding countries.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    Format: text
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0200.1
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 3
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    Revisiting remote drivers of the 2014 drought in South-Eastern Brazil (2020)
    Springer
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-02-08
    Description: South-Eastern Brazil experienced a devastating drought associated with significant agricultural losses in austral summer 2014. The drought was linked to the development of a quasi-stationary anticyclone in the South Atlantic in early 2014 that affected local precipitation patterns over South-East Brazil. Previous studies have suggested that the unusual blocking was triggered by tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and, more recently, by convection over the Indian Ocean related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Further investigation of the proposed teleconnections appears crucial for anticipating future economic impacts. In this study, we use numerical experiments with an idealized atmospheric general circulation model forced with the observed 2013/2014 SST anomalies in different ocean basins to understand the dominant mechanism that initiated the 2014 South Atlantic anticyclonic anomaly. We show that a forcing with global 2013/2014 SST anomalies enhances the chance for the occurrence of positive geopotential height anomalies in the South Atlantic. However, further sensitivity experiments with SST forcings in separate ocean basins suggest that neither the Indian Ocean nor tropical Pacific SST anomalies alone have contributed significantly to the anomalous atmospheric circulation that led to the 2014 South-East Brazil drought. The model study rather points to an important role of remote forcing from the South Pacific, local South Atlantic SSTs, and internal atmospheric variability in driving the persistent blocking over the South Atlantic.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 4
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    Late 20th Century Indian Ocean Heat Content Gain Masked by Wind Forcing (2020)
    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-02-08
    Description: Rapid increases in upper 700‐m Indian Ocean heat content (IOHC) since the 2000s have focused attention on its role during the recent global surface warming hiatus. Here, we use ocean model simulations to assess distinct multidecadal IOHC variations since the 1960s and explore the relative contributions from wind stress and buoyancy forcing regionally and with depth. Multidecadal wind forcing counteracted IOHC increases due to buoyancy forcing from the 1960s to the 1990s. Wind and buoyancy forcing contribute positively since the mid‐2000s, accounting for the drastic IOHC change. Distinct timing and structure of upper ocean temperature changes in the eastern and western Indian Ocean are linked to the pathway how multidecadal wind forcing associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation is transmitted and affects IOHC through local and remote winds. Progressive shoaling of the equatorial thermocline—of importance for low‐frequency variations in Indian Ocean Dipole occurrence—appears to be dominated by multidecadal variations in wind forcing.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 5
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    Pacific Ocean Contribution to the Asymmetry in Eastern Indian Ocean Variability (2013)
    AMS (American Meteorological Society)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-10
    Description: Variations in eastern Indian Ocean upper-ocean thermal properties are assessed for the period 1970–2004, with a particular focus on asymmetric features related to opposite phases of Indian Ocean Dipole events, using high-resolution ocean model hindcasts. Sensitivity experiments, where atmospheric forcing variability is restricted to the Indian or Pacific Ocean only, support the interpretation of forcing mechanisms for large-scale asymmetric behavior in eastern Indian Ocean variability. Years are classified according to eastern Indian Ocean subsurface heat content (HC) as proxy of thermocline variations. Years characterized by anomalous low HC feature a zonal gradient in upper-ocean properties near the equator, while high events have a meridional gradient from the tropics into the subtropics. The spatial and temporal characteristics of the seasonal evolution of HC anomalies for the two cases is distinct, as is the relative contribution from Indian Ocean atmospheric forcing versus remote influences from Pacific wind forcing: low events develop rapidly during austral winter/spring in response to Indian Ocean wind forcing associated with an enhanced southeasterly monsoon driving coastal upwelling and a shoaling thermocline in the east; in contrast, formation of anomalous high eastern Indian Ocean HC is more gradual, with anomalies earlier in the year expanding from the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) region, initiated by remote Pacific wind forcing and transmitted through the ITF via coastal wave dynamics. Implications for seasonal predictions arise with high HC events offering extended lead times for predicting thermocline variations and upper-ocean properties across the eastern Indian Ocean.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 6
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    Freshwater Contributions to Decadal Variability of the Indonesian Throughflow (2023)
    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: The Makassar Strait, the main passageway of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF), is an important component of Indo-Pacific climate through its inter-basin redistribution of heat and freshwater. Observational studies suggest that wind-driven freshwater advection from the marginal seas into the Makassar Strait modulates the strait's surface transport. However, direct observations are too short (〈15 years) to resolve variability on decadal timescales. Here we use a series of global ocean simulations to assess the advected freshwater contributions to ITF transport across a range of timescales. The simulated seasonal and interannual freshwater dynamics are consistent with previous studies. On decadal timescales, we find that wind-driven advection of South China Sea (SCS) waters into the Makassar Strait modulates upper-ocean ITF transport. Atmospheric circulation changes associated with Pacific decadal variability appear to drive this mechanism via Pacific lower-latitude western boundary current interactions that affect the SCS circulation. Key Points: - A global ocean model is used to show how freshwater impacts the decadal variability of transport through the main Indonesian Throughflow pathway - Wind-driven advection of South China Sea freshwater induces an upstream pressure gradient that reduces transport - Freshwater input is modulated by atmospheric circulation changes associated with Pacific decadal variability
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: text
    Format: text
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 7
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    Marine Heatwaves and Their Depth Structures on the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf (2022)
    Frontiers
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: Marine Heatwaves (MHWs) are ocean extreme events, characterized by anomalously high temperatures, which can have significant ecological impacts. The Northeast U.S. continental shelf is of great economical importance as it is home to a highly productive ecosystem. Local warming rates exceed the global average and the region experienced multiple MHWs in the last decade with severe consequences for regional fisheries. Due to the lack of subsurface observations, the depth-extent of MHWs is not well-known, which hampers the assessment of impacts on pelagic and benthic ecosystems. This study utilizes a global ocean circulation model with a high-resolution (1/20°) nest in the Atlantic to investigate the depth structure of MHWs and associated drivers on the Northeast U.S. continental shelf. It is shown that MHWs exhibit varying spatial extents, with some only occurring at depth. The highest intensities are found around 100 m depth with temperatures exceeding the climatological mean by up to 7°C, while surface intensities are typically smaller (around 3°C). Distinct vertical structures are associated with different spatial MHW patterns and drivers. Investigation of the co-variability of temperature and salinity reveals that over 80% of MHWs at depth (〉50 m) coincide with extreme salinity anomalies. Two case studies provide insight into opposing MHW patterns at the surface and at depth, being forced by anomalous air-sea heat fluxes and Gulf Stream warm core ring interaction, respectively. The results highlight the importance of local ocean dynamics and the need to realistically represent them in climate models.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    Format: archive
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 8
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    Depth structure of Ningaloo Niño/Niña events and associated drivers (2021)
    AMS (American Meteorological Society)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: Marine heatwaves along the coast ofWestern Australia, referred to as Ningaloo Niño, have had dramatic impacts on the ecosystem in the recent decade. A number of local and remote forcing mechanisms have been put forward, however little is known about the depth structure of such temperature extremes. Utilizing an eddy-active global Ocean General Circulation Model, Ningaloo Niño and the corresponding cold Ningaloo Niña events are investigated between 1958-2016, with focus on their depth structure. The relative roles of buoyancy and wind forcing are inferred from sensitivity experiments. Composites reveal a strong symmetry between cold and warm events in their vertical structure and associated large-scale spatial patterns. Temperature anomalies are largest at the surface, where buoyancy forcing is dominant and extend down to 300m depth (or deeper), with wind forcing being the main driver. Large-scale subsurface anomalies arise from a vertical modulation of the thermocline, extending from the western Pacific into the tropical eastern Indian Ocean. The strongest Ningaloo Niños in 2000 and 2011 are unprecedented compound events, where long-lasting high temperatures are accompanied by extreme freshening, which emerges in association with La Niñas, more common and persistent during the negative phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. It is shown that Ningaloo Niños during La Nina phases have a distinctively deeper reach and are associated with a strengthening of the Leeuwin Current, while events during El Niño are limited to the surface layer temperatures, likely driven by local atmosphere-ocean feedbacks, without a clear imprint on salinity and velocity.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 9
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    Mechanisms of tropical Pacific decadal variability (2023)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: Naturally occurring tropical Pacific variations at timescales of 7–70 years — tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV) — describe basin-scale sea surface temperature (SST), sea-level pressure and heat content anomalies. Several mechanisms are proposed to explain TPDV, which can originate through oceanic processes, atmospheric processes or as an El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) residual. In this Review, we synthesize knowledge of these mechanisms, their characteristics and contribution to TPDV. Oceanic processes include off-equatorial Rossby waves, which mediate oceanic adjustment and contribute to variations in equatorial thermocline depth and SST; variations in the strength of the shallow upper-ocean overturning circulation, which exhibit a large anti-correlation with equatorial Pacific SST at interannual and decadal timescales; and the propagation of salinity-compensated temperature (spiciness) anomalies from the subtropics to the equatorial thermocline. Atmospheric processes include midlatitude internal variability leading to tropical and subtropical wind anomalies, which result in equatorial SST anomalies and feedbacks that enhance persistence; and atmospheric teleconnections from Atlantic and Indian Ocean SST variability, which induce winds conducive to decadal anomalies of the opposite sign in the Pacific. Although uncertain, the tropical adjustment through Rossby wave activity is likely a dominant mechanism. A deeper understanding of the origin and spectral characteristics of TPDV-related winds is a key priority.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 10
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    Extreme rainfall activity in the Australian tropics reflects changes in the El Niño/Southern Oscillation over the last two millennia (2015)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2015]. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of National Academy of Sciences for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 112 (2015): 4576–4581, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1422270112.
    Description: Assessing temporal variability in extreme rainfall events prior to the historical era is complicated by the sparsity of long-term ‘direct’ storm proxies. Here we present a 2200-yr-long, accurate and precisely dated record of cave flooding events from the northwest Australian tropics that we interpret, based on an integrated analysis of meteorological data and sediment layers within stalagmites, as representing a proxy for extreme rainfall events derived primarily from tropical cyclones (TCs) and secondarily from the regional summer monsoon. This time series reveals substantial multi-centennial variability in extreme rainfall, with elevated occurrence rates characterizing the twentieth century, the period 850-1450 CE, and 50-400 CE; reduced activity marks 1450-1650 CE and 500-850 CE. These trends are similar to reconstructed numbers of TCs in the North Atlantic and Caribbean basins, and form temporal and spatial patterns best explained by secular changes in the dominant mode of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the primary driver of modern TC variability. We thus attribute long-term shifts in cyclogenesis in both the central Australian and North Atlantic sectors over the past two millennia to entrenched El Niño or La Niña states of the tropical Pacific. The influence of ENSO on monsoon precipitation in this region of northwest Australia is muted, but ENSO-driven changes to the monsoon may have complemented changes to TC activity.
    Description: Funding was provided by the Paleo Perspectives on Climate Change (P2C2) program of the United States National Science Foundation (NSF) through grant AGS-1103413, a seed grant from the Center for Global and Regional Environmental Research, and Cornell College (all to R.D.), the Kimberley Foundation Australia (to K-H.W.), and Penzance and John P. Chase Memorial Endowed Funds at WHOI (to C.U.).
    Description: 2015-09-30
    Keywords: Speleothem ; Tropical cyclone ; Monsoon ; El Niño/Southern Oscillation ; Australia
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Preprint
    Format: application/pdf
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