Description: Originating in the equatorial Pacific, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has highly consequential global impacts, motivating the need to understand its responses to anthropogenic warming. In this Review, we synthesize advances in observed and projected changes of multiple aspects of ENSO, including the processes behind such changes. As in previous syntheses, there is an inter-model consensus of an increase in future ENSO rainfall variability. Now, however, it is apparent that models that best capture key ENSO dynamics also tend to project an increase in future ENSO sea surface temperature variability and, thereby, ENSO magnitude under greenhouse warming, as well as an eastward shift and intensification of ENSO-related atmospheric teleconnections — the Pacific–North American and Pacific–South American patterns. Such projected changes are consistent with palaeoclimate evidence of stronger ENSO variability since the 1950s compared with past centuries. The increase in ENSO variability, though underpinned by increased equatorial Pacific upper-ocean stratification, is strongly influenced by internal variability, raising issues about its quantifiability and detectability. Yet, ongoing coordinated community efforts and computational advances are enabling long-simulation, large-ensemble experiments and high-resolution modelling, offering encouraging prospects for alleviating model biases, incorporating fundamental dynamical processes and reducing uncertainties in projections. Key points Under anthropogenic warming, the majority of climate models project faster background warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific compared with the west. The observed equatorial Pacific surface warming pattern since 1980, though opposite to the projected faster warming in the equatorial eastern Pacific, is within the inter-model range in terms of sea surface temperature (SST) gradients and is subject to influence from internal variability. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) rainfall responses in the equatorial Pacific are projected to intensify and shift eastward, leading to an eastward intensification of extratropical teleconnections. ENSO SST variability and extreme ENSO events are projected to increase under greenhouse warming, with a stronger inter-model consensus in CMIP6 compared with CMIP5. However, the time of emergence for ENSO SST variability is later than that for ENSO rainfall variability, opposite to that for mean SST versus mean rainfall. Future ENSO change is likely influenced by past variability, such that quantification of future ENSO in the only realization of the real world is challenging. Although there is no definitive relationship of ENSO variability with the mean zonal SST gradient or seasonal cycle, palaeoclimate records suggest a causal connection between vertical temperature stratification and ENSO strength, and a greater ENSO strength since the 1950s than in past centuries, supporting an emerging increase in ENSO variability under greenhouse warming.

Description: Regional climate variability in the tropical Atlantic, from interannual to decadal time scales, is inevitably connected to changes in the strength and position of the individual components of the tropical current system with impacts on societally relevant climate hazards such as anomalous rainfall or droughts over the surrounding continents (Bourlès et al., 2019; Foltz et al., 2019). Furthermore, the lateral supply of dissolved oxygen in the tropical Atlantic upper-ocean is closely linked to the zonal current bands (Brandt et al., 2008; Brandt et al., 2012; Burmeister et al., 2020) and especially to the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) and its long-term variations with potential implications for regional marine ecosystems (Brandt et al., 2021). The eastward flowing EUC is located between 70 to 200 m depth and forms one of the strongest tropical currents with maximum velocities of up to 1 m s-1 and maximum variability on seasonal time scales (Brandt et al., 2014; Johns et al., 2014). In the intermediate to deep equatorial Atlantic, variability on longer time scales is mainly governed by alternating, vertically-stacked, zonal currents (equatorial deep jets (EDJs); Johnson and Zhang, 2003). At a fixed location, the phases of these jets are propagating downward with time, implying that parts of their energy must propagate upward towards the surface (Brandt et al., 2011). In fact, a pronounced interannual cycle of about 4.5 years, that is associated with EDJs, is projected onto surface parameters such as sea surface temperature or precipitation (Brandt et al., 2011) further demonstrating the importance of understanding equatorial circulation variability and its role in tropical climate variability. While variability in the zonal velocity component on the equator is focused on seasonal to interannual time scales (Brandt et al., 2016; Claus et al., 2016; Kopte et al., 2018), meridional velocity fluctuations dominate the intraseasonal period range (20 to 50 days) due to the presence and passage of westward propagating Tropical Instability Waves (TIWs; Grodsky et al., 2005; Bunge et al., 2007; Wenegrat and McPhaden, 2015; Tuchen et al., 2018; Specht et al., 2021). In general, intraseasonal variability in the central equatorial Atlantic is mainly attributed to TIWs in the upper ocean (Athie and Marin, 2008), while intraseasonal variability in the deep ocean is associated with the signature of equatorial Yanai waves (Ascani et al., 2015; Tuchen et al., 2018, Körner et al., 2022). The observed and modelled interaction between intraseasonal equatorial waves and the aforementioned EDJs was found to maintain the deep equatorial circulation against dissipation (Greatbatch et al., 2018; Bastin et al., 2020) pointing toward the importance of intraseasonal variability for equatorial ocean dynamics. These findings are largely based on, or underpinned by a unique and steadily expanding data set of current velocity observations in the central equatorial Atlantic Ocean. Since 2001, current velocities have been measured almost continuously as part of a multilateral collaboration, the Prediction and Research Moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic (PIRATA), that regularly services a moored observatory located at 0°N/23°W (Bourlès et al., 2019). The significance of this data set is characterized by the length of the time series and by the full-depth coverage of current velocity observations which allow for a detailed analysis of both upper-ocean and deep-ocean dynamics on a wide range of time scales and frequencies. For instance, it enables the decomposition of the current velocity time series into vertical modes pointing toward the existence of resonant basin modes and identifying different sources of deep intraseasonal variability (Brandt et al., 2016; Claus et al., 2016; Greatbatch et al., 2018; Tuchen et al., 2018, Körner et al. under review). Here, we present 20 years of full-depth current velocity observations at 0°N/23°W. The aim of this study is to provide the scientific community with a publicly available reference data set that could be used in manifold ways, including, for instance, the validation of ocean models or reanalysis products.

Description: El Niño events are characterized by surface warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean and weakening of equatorial trade winds that occur every few years. Such conditions are accompanied by changes in atmospheric and oceanic circulation, affecting global climate, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, fisheries and human activities. The alternation of warm El Niño and cold La Niña conditions, referred to as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), represents the strongest year-to-year fluctuation of the global climate system. Here we provide a synopsis of our current understanding of the spatio-temporal complexity of this important climate mode and its influence on the Earth system.

Description: © The Author(s), 2019. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Sutton, A. J., Feely, R. A., Maenner-Jones, S., Musielwicz, S., Osborne, J., Dietrich, C., Monacci, N., Cross, J., Bott, R., Kozyr, A., Andersson, A. J., Bates, N. R., Cai, W., Cronin, M. F., De Carlo, E. H., Hales, B., Howden, S. D., Lee, C. M., Manzello, D. P., McPhaden, M. J., Melendez, M., Mickett, J. B., Newton, J. A., Noakes, S. E., Noh, J. H., Olafsdottir, S. R., Salisbury, J. E., Send, U., Trull, T. W., Vandemark, D. C., & Weller, R. A. Autonomous seawater pCO(2) and pH time series from 40 surface buoys and the emergence of anthropogenic trends. Earth System Science Data, 11(1), (2019):421-439, doi:10.5194/essd-11-421-2019.

Description: Ship-based time series, some now approaching over 3 decades long, are critical climate records that have dramatically improved our ability to characterize natural and anthropogenic drivers of ocean carbon dioxide (CO2) uptake and biogeochemical processes. Advancements in autonomous marine carbon sensors and technologies over the last 2 decades have led to the expansion of observations at fixed time series sites, thereby improving the capability of characterizing sub-seasonal variability in the ocean. Here, we present a data product of 40 individual autonomous moored surface ocean pCO2 (partial pressure of CO2) time series established between 2004 and 2013, 17 also include autonomous pH measurements. These time series characterize a wide range of surface ocean carbonate conditions in different oceanic (17 sites), coastal (13 sites), and coral reef (10 sites) regimes. A time of trend emergence (ToE) methodology applied to the time series that exhibit well-constrained daily to interannual variability and an estimate of decadal variability indicates that the length of sustained observations necessary to detect statistically significant anthropogenic trends varies by marine environment. The ToE estimates for seawater pCO2 and pH range from 8 to 15 years at the open ocean sites, 16 to 41 years at the coastal sites, and 9 to 22 years at the coral reef sites. Only two open ocean pCO2 time series, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Hawaii Ocean Time-series Station (WHOTS) in the subtropical North Pacific and Stratus in the South Pacific gyre, have been deployed longer than the estimated trend detection time and, for these, deseasoned monthly means show estimated anthropogenic trends of 1.9±0.3 and 1.6±0.3 µatm yr−1, respectively. In the future, it is possible that updates to this product will allow for the estimation of anthropogenic trends at more sites; however, the product currently provides a valuable tool in an accessible format for evaluating climatology and natural variability of surface ocean carbonate chemistry in a variety of regions. Data are available at https://doi.org/10.7289/V5DB8043 and https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/ocads/oceans/Moorings/ndp097.html (Sutton et al., 2018).

Description: We gratefully acknowledge the major funders of the pCO2 and pH observations: the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, US Department of Commerce, including resources from the Ocean Observing and Monitoring Division of the Climate Program Office (fund reference number 100007298) and the Ocean Acidification Program. We rely on a long list of scientific partners and technical staff who carry out buoy maintenance, sensor deployment, and ancillary measurements at sea. We thank these partners and their funders for their continued efforts in sustaining the platforms that support these long-term pCO2 and pH observations, including the following institutions: the Australian Integrated Marine Observing System, the Caribbean Coastal Ocean Observing System, Gray's Reef National Marine Sanctuary, the Marine and Freshwater Research Institute, the Murdock Charitable Trust, the National Data Buoy Center, the National Science Foundation Division of Ocean Sciences, NOAA–Korean Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries Joint Project Agreement, the Northwest Association of Networked Ocean Observing Systems, the Research Moored Array for African-Asian-Australian Monsoon Analysis and Prediction (i.e., RAMA), the University of Washington, the US Integrated Ocean Observing System, and the Washington Ocean Acidification Center. The open ocean sites are part of the OceanSITES program of the Global Ocean Observing System and the Surface Ocean CO2 Observing Network. All sites are also part of the Global Ocean Acidification Observing Network. This paper is PMEL contribution number 4797.