Description: Highlights: • Climate model sensitivity experiments are performed using state-of-the-art ice sheet and freshwater reconstructions • Declining Northern Hemisphere ice sheets increase the sensitivity of the AMOC to North Atlantic meltwater discharge • Deglacial rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration decreases the sensitivity of the AMOC to North Atlantic meltwater discharge • Both effects provide a complementary perspective to existing explanations for abrupt AMOC transitions Abstract: The last deglaciation was characterized by a sequence of abrupt climate events thought to be linked to rapid changes in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). The sequence includes a weakening of the AMOC after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) during Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1), which ends with an abrupt AMOC amplification at the transition to the Bølling/Allerød (B/A). This transition occurs despite persistent deglacial meltwater fluxes that counteract vigorous North Atlantic deep-water formation. Using the Earth system model COSMOS with a range of deglacial boundary conditions and reconstructed deglacial meltwater fluxes, we show that deglacial CO2 rise and ice sheet decline modulate the sensitivity of the AMOC to these fluxes. While declining ice sheets increase the sensitivity, increasing atmospheric CO2 levels tend to counteract this effect. Therefore, the occurrence of a weaker HS1 AMOC and an abrupt AMOC increase in the presence of meltwater, might be explained by these effects, as an alternative to or in combination with changes in the magnitude or routing of meltwater discharge.

Description: The Himalaya–Tibet orogen contains one of the largest modern topographic and climate gradients on Earth. Proxy data from the region provide a basis for understanding Tibetan Plateau paleo climate and paleo elevation reconstructions. Paleo climate model comparisons to proxy data compliment sparsely located data and can improve climate reconstructions. This study investigates temporal changes in precipitation, temperature and precipitation δ18O(δ18Op) over the Himalaya–Tibet from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to present. We conduct a series of atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM, ECHAM5-wiso) experiments at discrete time slices including a Pre-industrial (PI, Pre-1850 AD), Mid Holocene (MH, 6 ka BP) and LGM (21 ka BP) simulations. Model predictions are compared with existing proxy records. Model results show muted climate changes across the plateau during the MH and larger changes occurring during the LGM. During the LGM surface temperatures are ∼2.0–4.0◦C lower across the Himalaya and Tibet, and 〉5.0◦C lower at the northwest and northeast edge of the Tibetan Plateau. LGM mean annual precipitation is 200–600 mm/yr lower over on the Tibetan Plateau. Model and proxy data comparison shows a good agreement for the LGM, but large differences for the MH. Large differences are also present between MH proxy studies near each other. The precipitation weighted annual mean δ18Op lapse rate at the Himalaya is about 0.4h/km larger during the MH and 0.2h/km smaller during the LGM than during the PI. Finally, rainfall associated with the continental Indian monsoon (between 70◦E–110◦E and 10◦N–30◦N) is about 44% less in the LGM than during PI times. The LGM monsoon period is about one month shorter than in PI times. Taken together, these results document significant spatial and temporal changes in temperature, precipitation, and δ18Op over the last ∼21 ka. These changes are large enough to impact interpretations of proxy data and the intensity of the Indian monsoon.

Description: The understanding of the relationship between the variation of precipitation stable oxygen isotope ratio (δ18Op) and monsoon activity in the Asian monsoon region is crucial for an in-depth comprehension of the regional hydrological cycle processes and for reconstructing the history of Asian paleomonsoon changes. Based on the 1979–2017 summer δ18Op output by two isotope-enabled atmospheric general circulation models nudged to climate reanalysis data, this study explores the associations of the Indian summer monsoon (IM) and western North Pacific summer monsoon (WNPM) intensities with the interannual variations of the regional δ18Op and their possible physical mechanisms. Statistical analyses demonstrate that the East Asian δ18Op is negatively correlated with the IM intensity while the Indian δ18Op is positively correlated with the WNPM intensity. Moreover, the underlying mechanisms linking the monsoon and δ18Op vary in different regions. In strong IM years, with the intensified convection and increased precipitation near the Indian peninsula, the water vapor isotope ratio (δ18Ov) transported to East Asia has lower values, resulting in the depletion of δ18Op there. The opposite is true for weak IM years. In years of strong WNPM, the intensified convection over the tropical western Pacific and the suppressed convection over the western Indian Ocean may be linked to a Walker-type circulation anomaly, accompanied by the enlarging of the vertical wind shear between the western Pacific and the western Indian Ocean. Accordingly, the decreasing of convection and precipitation over the Arabian Sea results in higher δ18Ov values in the upstream area of India, which ultimately increases δ18Op values in the Indian peninsula through the monsoonal moisture transport; and vice versa.

Description: The last deglaciation was characterized by a sequence of abrupt climate events thought to be linked to rapid changes in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). The sequence includes a weakening of the AMOC after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) during Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1), which ends with an abrupt AMOC amplification at the transition to the Bølling/Allerød (B/A). This transition occurs despite persistent deglacial meltwater fluxes that counteract vigorous North Atlantic deep-water formation. Using the Earth system model COSMOS with a range of deglacial boundary conditions and reconstructed deglacial meltwater fluxes, we show that deglacial CO2 rise and ice sheet decline modulate the sensitivity of the AMOC to these fluxes. While declining ice sheets increase the sensitivity, increasing atmospheric CO2 levels tend to counteract this effect. Therefore, the occurrence of a weaker HS1 AMOC and an abrupt AMOC increase in the presence of meltwater, might be explained by these effects, as an alternative to or in combination with changes in the magnitude or routing of meltwater discharge.