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  • 1
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    Southern Ocean deep convection as a driver of Antarctic warming events (2016)
    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
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    Publication Date: 2023-08-01
    Description: Simulations with a free-running coupled climate model show that heat release associated with Southern Ocean deep convection variability can drive centennial-scale Antarctic temperature variations of up to 2.0 °C. The mechanism involves three steps: Preconditioning: heat accumulates at depth in the Southern Ocean; Convection onset: wind and/or sea-ice changes tip the buoyantly unstable system into the convective state; Antarctic warming: fast sea-ice–albedo feedbacks (on annual–decadal timescales) and slow Southern Ocean frontal and sea-surface temperature adjustments to convective heat release (on multidecadal–century timescales) drive an increase in atmospheric heat and moisture transport toward Antarctica. We discuss the potential of this mechanism to help drive and amplify climate variability as observed in Antarctic ice-core records.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 2
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    Physical controls of Southern Ocean deep-convection variability in CMIP5 models and the Kiel Climate Model (2017)
    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters, 44 (13). pp. 6951-6958.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-02-06
    Description: Global climate models exhibit large biases in the Southern Ocean. For example, in models Antarctic bottom water is formed mostly through open-ocean deep-convection rather than through shelf convection. Still, the timescale, region, and intensity of deep-convection variability vary widely among models. We investigate the physical controls of this variability in the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean, where most of the models simulate recurring deep-convection events. We analyzed output from eleven exemplary CMIP5 models and four versions of the Kiel Climate Model (KCM). Of several potential physical control parameters that we tested, the ones shared by all these models are: Stratification in the convection region influences the timescale of the deep-convection variability, i.e. models with a strong (weak) stratification vary on long (short) timescales. And, sea ice volume affects the modeled mean state in the Southern Ocean: large (small) sea ice volume is associated with a non-convective (convective) predominant regime.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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    DOI: 10.1002/2017GL074087
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  • 3
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    The impact of variable sea ice roughness on changes in Arctic Ocean surface stress: A model study (2016)
    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    In:  Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 121 (3). pp. 1931-1952.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-04-04
    Description: The Arctic sea ice cover is thinning and retreating, causing changes in surface roughness that in turn modify the momentum flux from the atmosphere through the ice into the ocean. New model simulations comprising variable sea ice drag coefficients for both the air and water interface demonstrate that the heterogeneity in sea ice surface roughness significantly impacts the spatial distribution and trends of ocean surface stress during the last decades. Simulations with constant sea ice drag coefficients as used in most climate models show an increase in annual mean ocean surface stress (0.003 N/m2 per decade, 4.6%) due to the reduction of ice thickness leading to a weakening of the ice and accelerated ice drift. In contrast, with variable drag coefficients our simulations show annual mean ocean surface stress is declining at a rate of -0.002 N/m2 per decade (3.1%) over the period 1980-2013 because of a significant reduction in surface roughness associated with an increasingly thinner and younger sea ice cover. The effectiveness of sea ice in transferring momentum does not only depend on its resistive strength against the wind forcing but is also set by its top and bottom surface roughness varying with ice types and ice conditions. This reveals the need to account for sea ice surface roughness variations in climate simulations in order to correctly represent the implications of sea ice loss under global warming
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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    DOI: 10.1002/2015JC011186
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  • 4
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    Assessing climate impacts and risks of ocean albedo modification in the Arctic (2016)
    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    In:  Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 121 (5). pp. 3044-3057.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-11-23
    Description: The ice albedo feedback is one of the key factors of accelerated temperature increase in the high northern latitudes under global warming. This study assesses climate impacts and risks of idealized Arctic Ocean albedo modification (AOAM), a proposed climate engineering method, during transient cli- mate change simulations with varying representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. We find no potential for reversing trends in all assessed Arctic climate metrics under increasing atmospheric CO2 con- centrations. AOAM only yields an initial offset during the first years after implementation. Nevertheless, sea ice loss can be delayed by 25(60) years in the RCP8.5(RCP4.5) scenario and the delayed thawing of perma- frost soils in the AOAM simulations prevents up to 40(32) Pg of carbon from being released by 2100. AOAM initially dampens the decline of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning and delays the onset of open ocean deep convection in the Nordic Seas under the RCP scenarios. Both these processes cause a subsurface warming signal in the AOAM simulations relative to the default RCP simulations with the potential to desta- bilize Arctic marine gas hydrates. Furthermore, in 2100, the RCP8.5 AOAM simulation diverts more from the 2005–2015 reference state in many climate metrics than the RCP4.5 simulation without AOAM. Considering the demonstrated risks, we conclude that concerning longer time scales, reductions in emissions remain the safest and most effective way to prevent severe changes in the Arctic.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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    DOI: 10.1002/2015JC011433
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  • 5
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    Southern Ocean deep convection in global climate models: A driver for variability of subpolar gyres and Drake Passage transport on decadal timescales (2016)
    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    In:  Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 121 (6). pp. 3905-3925.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-02-01
    Description: We investigate the individual and joint decadal variability of Southern Ocean state quantities, such as the strength of the Ross and Weddell Gyres, Drake Passage transport, and sea ice area, using the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research UK Chemistry and Aerosols (NIWA-UKCA) model and CMIP5 models. Variability in these quantities is stimulated by strong deep reaching convective events in the Southern Ocean, which produce an Antarctic Bottom Water-like water mass and affect the large-scale meridional density structure in the Southern Ocean. An increase in the (near) surface stratification, due to freshwater forcing, can be a precondition for subsequent strong convection activity. The combination of enhanced-gyre driven sea ice and freshwater export, as well as ongoing subsurface heat accumulation, lead to a time lag between changes in oceanic freshwater and heat content. This causes an ongoing weakening of the stratification until sudden strong mixing events emerge and the heat is released to the atmosphere. We find that strong convection reduces sea ice cover, weakens the subpolar gyres, increases the meridional density gradient and subsequently results in a positive Drake Passage transport anomaly. Results of available CMIP5 models confirm that variability in sea ice, Drake Passage transport, and the Weddell Gyre strength is enhanced if models show strong open ocean convective events. Consistent relationships between convection, sea ice, Drake Passage transport, and Ross Gyre strength variability are evident in most models, whether or not they host open ocean convection.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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    DOI: 10.1002/2015JC011286
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  • 6
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    Thickness and surface-properties of different sea-ice regimes within the Arctic Trans Polar Drift: Data from summers 2001, 2004 and 2007 (2010)
    AGU (American Geophysical Union)
    In:  Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 115 (C12). C12059.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-07-05
    Description: Large-scale sea-ice thickness and surface property data were obtained in three summers and in three different sea-ice regimes in the Arctic Trans-Polar Drift (TPD) by means of helicopter electromagnetic sounding. Distribution functions P of sea-ice thickness and of the height, spacing, and density of sails were analyzed to characterize ice regimes of different ages and deformations. Results suggest that modal ice thickness is affected by the age of a sea-ice regime and that the degree of deformation is represented by the shape of P. Mean thickness changes with both age and deformation. Standard error calculations showed that representative mean and modal thickness could be obtained with transect lengths of 15 km and 50 km, respectively, in less deformed ice regimes such as those around the North Pole. In heavier deformed ice regimes closer to Greenland, 100 km transects were necessary for mean thickness determination and a representative modal thickness could not be obtained at all. Mean sail height did not differ between ice regimes, whereas sail density increased with the degree of deformation. Furthermore, the fraction of level ice, open melt ponds, and open water along the transects were determined. Although overall ice thickness in the central TPD was 50% thinner in 2007 than in 2001, first-year ice (FYI) was not significantly thinner in 2007 than FYI in 2001, with a decrease of only 0.3 m. Thinner FYI in 2007 only occurred close to the sea-ice edge, where open water covered more than 10% of the surface. Melt pond coverage retrieved from laser measurements was 15% in both the 2004 MYI regime and the 2007 FYI regime.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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    DOI: 10.1029/2009JC005846
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  • 7
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    Impact of the ice strength formulation on the performance of a sea ice thickness distribution model in the Arctic (2017)
    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    In:  Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 122 (3). pp. 2090-2107.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-02-06
    Description: The impact of a subgrid-scale ice thickness distribution (ITD) and two standard ice strength formulations on simulated Arctic sea ice climate is investigated. To this end, different model configurations with and without an ITD were tuned by minimizing the weighted mean error between the simulated and observed sea ice concentration, thickness, and drift speed with an semiautomatic parameter optimization routine. The standard ITD and ice strength parameterization lead to larger errors when compared to the simple single-category model with an ice strength parameterization based on the mean ice thickness. Interestingly, the simpler ice strength formulation, which depends linearly on the mean ice thickness, also reduces the model-observation error when using an ITD. For the ice strength parameterization that makes use of the ITD, the effective ice strength depends strongly on the number of thickness categories, so that introducing more categories can lead to overall thicker ice that is more easily deformed.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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    DOI: 10.1002/2016JC012128
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  • 8
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    Seasonality and long-term trend of Arctic Ocean surface stress in a model (2014)
    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
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    Publication Date: 2024-01-07
    Description: A numerical ocean sea-ice model is used to demonstrate that Arctic sea ice retreat affects momentum transfer into the ocean. A thinner and thus weaker ice cover is more easily forced by the wind, which increases the momentum flux. In contrast, increasing open water reduces momentum transfer because the ice surface provides greater drag than the open water surface. We introduce the concept of optimal ice concentration: momentum transfer increases with increasing ice concentration up to a point, beyond which frictional losses by floe interaction damp the transfer. For a common ice internal stress formulation, a concentration of 80–90% yields optimal amplification of momentum flux into the ocean. We study the seasonality and long-term evolution of Arctic Ocean surface stress over the years 1979–2012. Spring and fall feature optimal ice conditions for momentum transfer, but only in fall is the wind forcing at its maximum, yielding a peak basin-mean ocean surface stress of ∼0.08 N/m2. Since 1979, the basin-wide annual mean ocean surface stress has been increasing by 0.004 N/m2/decade, and since 2000 by 0.006 N/m2/decade. In contrast, summertime ocean surface stress has been decreasing at −0.002 N/m2/decade. These trends are linked to the weakening of the ice cover in fall, winter and spring, and to an increase in open water fraction in summer, i.e., changes in momentum transfer rather than changes in wind forcing. In most areas, the number of days per year with optimal ice concentration is decreasing. Key Points Weaker Arctic sea ice causes increased annual mean ocean surface stress (+20%) Increasing open water area in summer yields momentum flux reduction (−7%) An optimal ice concentration of 80–90% amplifies momentum transfer threefold
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 9
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    Sea ice drift variability in Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison Project models and observations (2007)
    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
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    Publication Date: 2024-01-07
    Description: Drift is a prominent parameter characterizing the Arctic sea ice cover that has a deep impact on the climate system. Hence it is a key issue to both the remote sensing as well as the modeling community, to provide reliable sea ice drift fields. This study focuses on the comparison of sea ice drift results from different sea ice‐ocean coupled models and the validation with observational data in the period 1979–2001. The models all take part in the Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (AOMIP) and the observations are mainly based on satellite imagery. According to speed distributions, one class of models has a mode at drift speeds around 3 cm s −1 and a short tail toward higher speeds. Another class shows a more even frequency distribution with large probability of drift speeds of 10 to 20 cm s −1 . Observations clearly agree better with the first class of model results. Reasons for these differences are manifold and lie in discrepancies of wind stress forcing as well as sea ice model characteristics and sea ice‐ocean coupling. Moreover, we investigated the drift patterns of anticyclonic and cyclonic wind‐driven regimes. The models are capable of producing realistic drift pattern variability. The winter of 1994/1995 stands out because of its maximum in Fram Strait ice export. Although export estimates of some models agree with observations, the corresponding inner Arctic drift pattern is not reproduced. The reason for this is found in the wind‐forcing as well as in differences in ocean velocities.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 10
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    On timescales and reversibility of the ocean's response to enhanced Greenland Ice Sheet melting in comprehensive climate models (2022)
    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
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    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: Warming of the North Atlantic region in climate history often was associated with massive melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet. To identify the meltwater’s impacts and isolate these from internal variability and other global warming factors, we run single-forcing simulations including small ensembles using three complex climate models differing only in their ocean components. In 200-year long pre-industrial climate simulations, we identify robust consequences of abruptly increasing Greenland runoff by 0.05 Sv: sea-level rise of 44±10 cm, subpolar North Atlantic surface cooling of 0.7˚C and a moderate AMOC decline of 1.1–2.0 Sv. The latter two emerge in under three decades—and reverse on the same timescale after the perturbation ends in year 100. The ocean translates the step-change perturbation into a multi-decadal to centennial signature in the deep overturning circulation. In all simulations, internal variability creates notable uncertainty in estimating trends, time of emergence and duration of the response.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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