Description: Mg/Ca ratios (mmol/mol) derived from the chemical analysis of the planktonic foraminifera Globigerinoides ruber (pink) tests (250-300 μm size fraction) from a marine sediment core 7616 retrieved from the SW Atlantic shelf (lat. -25.08333, long. -45.63333, 100 m water depth) in December 2004 during Oceanographic cruise Paleoprod, onboard the R/V Prof Wladimir Besnard.

Description: Mg/Ca composition (mmol/mol) derived from the chemical analysis of the planktonic foraminifera Globigerinoides ruber (pink) tests (250 - 300 μm size fraction) from a marine sediment core 7610 retrieved from the SW Atlantic shelf (lat. -25.50000, long. -46.60000, 89.0 m water depth) in December 2004 during Oceanographic cruise Paleoprod, onboard the R/V Prof Wladimir Besnard.

Description: Thermodynamic arguments imply that global mean rainfall increases in a warmer atmosphere; however, dynamical effects may result in more significant diversity of regional precipitation change. Here we investigate rainfall changes in the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (~ 3 Ma), a time when temperatures were 2–3ºC warmer than the pre-industrial era, using output from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Projects phases 1 and 2 and sensitivity climate model experiments. In the Mid-Pliocene simulations, the higher rates of warming in the northern hemisphere create an interhemispheric temperature gradient that enhances the southward cross-equatorial energy flux by up to 48%. This intensified energy flux reorganizes the atmospheric circulation leading to a northward shift of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone and a weakened and poleward displaced Southern Hemisphere Subtropical Convergences Zones. These changes result in drier-than-normal Southern Hemisphere tropics and subtropics. The evaluation of the mid-Pliocene adds a constraint to possible future warmer scenarios associated with differing rates of warming between hemispheres.

Description: Two decades into the 21st century there is growing evidence for global impacts of Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate change. Reliable estimates of how the Antarctic climate system would behave under a range of scenarios of future external climate forcing are thus a high priority. Output from new model simulations coordinated as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) provides an opportunity for a comprehensive analysis of the latest generation of state‐of‐the‐art climate models following a wider range of experiment types and scenarios than previous CMIP phases. Here the main broad‐scale 21st century Antarctic projections provided by the CMIP6 models are shown across four forcing scenarios: SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, SSP3‐7.0 and SSP5‐8.5. End‐of‐century Antarctic surface‐air temperature change across these scenarios (relative to 1995–2014) is 1.3, 2.5, 3.7 and 4.8°C. The corresponding proportional precipitation rate changes are 8, 16, 24 and 31%. In addition to these end‐of‐century changes, an assessment of scenario dependence of pathways of absolute and global‐relative 21st century projections is conducted. Potential differences in regional response are of particular relevance to coastal Antarctica, where, for example, ecosystems and ice shelves are highly sensitive to the timing of crossing of key thresholds in both atmospheric and oceanic conditions. Overall, it is found that the projected changes over coastal Antarctica do not scale linearly with global forcing. We identify two factors that appear to contribute: (a) a stronger global‐relative Southern Ocean warming in stabilisation (SSP2‐4.5) and aggressive mitigation (SSP1‐2.6) scenarios as the Southern Ocean continues to warm and (b) projected recovery of Southern Hemisphere stratospheric ozone and its effect on the mid‐latitude westerlies. The major implication is that over coastal Antarctica, the surface warming by 2100 is stronger relative to the global mean surface warming for the low forcing compared to high forcing future scenarios.

Description: The mid-Pliocene warm period (3.264–3.025 Ma) is the most recent geological period during which atmospheric CO2 levels were similar to recent historical values (∼400 ppm). Several proxy reconstructions for the mid-Pliocene show highly reduced zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradients in the tropical Pacific Ocean, indicating an El Niño-like mean state. However, past modelling studies do not show these highly reduced gradients. Efforts to understand mid-Pliocene climate dynamics have led to the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP). Results from the first phase (PlioMIP1) showed clear El Niño variability (albeit significantly reduced) and did not show the greatly reduced time-mean zonal SST gradient suggested by some of the proxies. In this work, we study El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability in the PlioMIP2 ensemble, which consists of additional global coupled climate models and updated boundary conditions compared to PlioMIP1. We quantify ENSO amplitude, period, spatial structure and “flavour”, as well as the tropical Pacific annual mean state in mid-Pliocene and pre-industrial simulations. Results show a reduced ENSO amplitude in the model-ensemble mean (−24 %) with respect to the pre-industrial, with 15 out of 17 individual models showing such a reduction. Furthermore, the spectral power of this variability considerably decreases in the 3–4-year band. The spatial structure of the dominant empirical orthogonal function shows no particular change in the patterns of tropical Pacific variability in the model-ensemble mean, compared to the pre-industrial. Although the time-mean zonal SST gradient in the equatorial Pacific decreases for 14 out of 17 models (0.2 ∘C reduction in the ensemble mean), there does not seem to be a correlation with the decrease in ENSO amplitude. The models showing the most “El Niño-like” mean state changes show a similar ENSO amplitude to that in the pre-industrial reference, while models showing more “La Niña-like” mean state changes generally show a large reduction in ENSO variability. The PlioMIP2 results show a reasonable agreement with both time-mean proxies indicating a reduced zonal SST gradient and reconstructions indicating a reduced, or similar, ENSO variability.

Description: The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the dominant driver of year-to-year climate variability in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, impacts climate pattern across the globe. However, the response of the ENSO system to past and potential future temperature increases is not fully understood. Here we investigate ENSO variability in the warmer climate of the mid-Pliocene (~3.0–3.3 Ma), when surface temperatures were ~2–3 °C above modern values, in a large ensemble of climate models—the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project. We show that the ensemble consistently suggests a weakening of ENSO variability, with a mean reduction of 25% (±16%). We further show that shifts in the equatorial Pacific mean state cannot fully explain these changes. Instead, ENSO was suppressed by a series of off-equatorial processes triggered by a northward displacement of the Pacific intertropical convergence zone: weakened convective feedback and intensified Southern Hemisphere circulation, which inhibit various processes that initiate ENSO. The connection between the climatological intertropical convergence zone position and ENSO we find in the past is expected to operate in our warming world with important ramifications for ENSO variability.

Description: In this study, we examine the simulation results from the paleoclimate version of the National Center of Atmospheric Research coupled Climate System Model (CSM 1.4) for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in order to understand changes in the South Atlantic (SA) circulation relative to the Present Day (PD). The LGM simulation is validated with the available proxy data in the region. The results show good agreement, except in the eastern equatorial and eastern SA region, where the model is not able to reproduce the correct cloud cover and the associated air–sea interactions. Ocean transport in the PD simulation is in good agreement with observational estimates. Results show that at subsurface levels there are two distinct patterns: (i) strengthening of the transport for the LGM in the southern SA (35°S to 25°S); and (ii) weakening of the mass transport in the northern SA (25°S to the Equator). In intermediate layers, there is an intensification of the subtropical gyre and a northward shift of the South Equatorial Current (SEC) bifurcation for the LGM. This leads to the intensification of the southward transport by the Brazil Current (BC) and the associated BC recirculation cell in the southern basin for the LGM. This shift in the position of the SEC bifurcation leads to a weakening in the northward transport and the western recirculation of the central SEC in the northern basin. This northward shift of the SEC (upper limit of the subtropical gyre) is consistent with the northward shift observed in the subtropical convergence zone and suggests a displacement of the sub-tropical gyre 3°–5° towards the Equator. In deeper layers, a shallower and weaker North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) circulation in the LGM contributes to the reduction of the southward transport in the northern part of the basin and is associated with a greater northward intrusion of Antarctic Bottom Water. This intrusion plus the increase of the Indian Water inflow is responsible for the northward transport intensification in the southern basin.

Description: Deep Chlorophyll Maximum (DCM) modifies the upper ocean heat capture distribution and thus impacts water column temperature and stratification, as well as biogeochemical processes. This energetical role of the DCM is assessed using a 1 m-resolution 1D physical-biogeochemical model of the upper ocean, using climatological forcing conditions of the Guinea Dome (GD). This zone has been chosen among others because a strong and shallow DCM is present all year round. The results show that the DCM warms the seasonal thermocline by +2°C in September/October and causes an increase of heat transfer from below into the mixed layer (ML) by vertical diffusion and entrainment, leading to a ML warming of about 0.3°C in October. In the permanent thermocline, temperature decreases by up to 2°C. The result is a stratification increase of the water column by 0.3°C m−1 which improves the thermocline realism when compared with observations. At the same time, the heating associated with the DCM is responsible for an increase of nitrate (+300%, 0.024 μM), chlorophyll (+50%, 0.02 μg l−1) and primary production (+45%: 10 mg C m−2 day−1) in the ML during the entrainment period of October. The considered concentrations are small but this mechanism could be potentially important to give a better explanation of why there is a significant amount of nitrate in the ML. The mechanisms associated with the DCM presence, no matter which temperature or biogeochemical tracers are concerned, are likely to occur in a wide range of tropical or subpolar regions; in these zones a pronounced DCM is present at least episodically at shallow or moderate depths. These results can be generalized to other thermal dome regions where relatively similar physical and biogeochemical structures are encountered. After testing different vertical resolutions (10 m, 5 m, 2.5 m, 1 m and 0.5 m), we show that using at least a 1 m vertical resolution model is mandatory to assess the energetical importance of the DCM.