Beschreibung: We reanalyze existing paleodata of global mean surface temperature ΔTg and radiative forcing ΔR of CO2 and land ice albedo for the last 800,000 years to show that a state‐dependency in paleoclimate sensitivity S, as previously suggested, is only found if ΔTg is based on reconstructions, and not when ΔTg is based on model simulations. Furthermore, during times of decreasing obliquity (periods of land‐ice sheet growth and sea level fall) the multi‐millennial component of reconstructed ΔTg diverges from CO2, while in simulations both variables vary more synchronously, suggesting that the differences during these times are due to relatively low rates of simulated land ice growth and associated cooling. To produce a reconstruction‐based extrapolation of S for the future we exclude intervals with strong ΔTg‐CO2 divergence and find that S is less state‐dependent, or even constant (state‐independent), yielding a mean equilibrium warming of 2–4 K for a doubling of CO2.

Beschreibung: Abstract Deglacial transitions of the middle to late Pleistocene (terminations) are linked to gradual changes in insolation accompanied by abrupt shifts in ocean circulation. However, the reason these deglacial abrupt events are so special compared with their sub-glacial-maximum analogues, in particular with respect to the exaggerated warming observed across Antarctica, remains unclear. Here we show that an increase in the relative importance of salt versus temperature stratification in the glacial deep South Atlantic decreases the potential cooling effect of waters that may be upwelled in response to abrupt perturbations in ocean circulation, as compared with sub-glacial-maximum conditions. Using a comprehensive coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model, we then demonstrate that an increase in deep-ocean salinity stratification stabilizes relatively warm waters in the glacial deep ocean, which amplifies the high southern latitude surface ocean temperature response to an abrupt weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during deglaciation. The mechanism can produce a doubling in the net rate of warming across Antarctica on a multicentennial timescale when starting from full glacial conditions (as compared with interglacial or subglacial conditions) and therefore helps to explain the large magnitude and rapidity of glacial terminations during the late Quaternary.

Beschreibung: Using transient climate forcing based on simulations from the Alfred Wegener Institute Earth System Model (AWI-ESM), we simulate the evolution of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) from the last interglacial (125 ka, kiloyear before present) to 2100 AD with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM). The impact of paleoclimate, especially Holocene climate, on the present and future evolution of the GrIS is explored. Our simulations of the past show close agreement with reconstructions with respect to the recent timing of the peaks in ice volume and the climate of Greenland. The maximum and minimum ice volume at around 18–17 ka and 6–5 ka lag the respective extremes in climate by several thousand years, implying that the ice volume response of the GrIS strongly lags climatic changes. Given that Greenland’s climate was getting colder from the Holocene Thermal Maximum (i.e., 8 ka) to the Pre-Industrial era, our simulation implies that the GrIS experienced growth from the mid-Holocene to the industrial era. Due to this background trend, the GrIS still gains mass until the second half of the 20th century, even though anthropogenic warming begins around 1850 AD. This is also in agreement with observational evidence showing mass loss of the GrIS does not begin earlier than the late 20th century. Our results highlight that the present evolution of the GrIS is not only controlled by the recent climate changes, but is also affected by paleoclimate, especially the relatively warm Holocene climate. We propose that the GrIS was not in equilibrium throughout the entire Holocene and that the slow response to Holocene climate needs to be represented in ice sheet simulations in order to predict ice mass loss, and therefore sea level rise, accurately.

Beschreibung: Model output of the intermediate complexity climate model CLIMBER-2 over the past 5 million years. The simulations were forced with insolation data (O), insolation and land ice data (OI), insolation and carbon dioxide data (OC) and with insolation, land ice and carbon dioxide data (OIC). Sheet 1 contains the main results: northern hemispheric (30-90 deg N), southern hemispheric (30-90 deg S) and global temperatures. Sheet 2 contains the land ice and carbon dioxide forcing in terms of globally averaged radiative forcing. Details are given in the publication. More information or data can be obtained by contacting L.B. Stap (lennert.stap@awi.de).

Beschreibung: We present ice thickness and bedrock height from simulations of the Miocene Antarctic ice sheet (AIS), using the 3D thermodynamical Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) version 0.7.3. The applied climate forcing consists of temperature and precipitation anomalies with respect to a preindustrial reference simulation, obtained from simulations using the atmosphere-ocean general circulation model COSMOS. These anomalies are added to an ERA-40/WOD-09 base climate. COSMOS was run using preindustrial settings, and Miocene settings with CO2 levels of 278 ppm (low), 450 ppm (medium), and 600 ppm (high). The steady state simulations using PISM are started with present-day bedrock conditions, with a present-day AIS (Bedmap2), and isostatically rebounded after removal of the ice. Additional simulations are started with the Wilson et al. (2012) late-Eocene bedrock topography reconstruction. The steady state simulations are conducted by applying the same climate forcing over 200 kyr. The transient simulations are performed by using an index method to interpolate between different forcing climate states. In these runs, the forcing climate state is gradually varied over quasi-orbital timescales of 400 kyr, 40 kyr, 1600 kyr, or 200 kyr. Details are given in the accompanying publication. For more information or data, please contact L.B. Stap mailto:lstap@awi.de. Dataset 2019_Stap_steadystate_startfrom_presentdayAIS.nc contains the data to plot Fig. 1. Dataset 2019_Stap_PISM_transient.xlsx contains the data to plot Fig. 2 and 3. Datasets 2019_Stap_steadystate_startfrom_noice.nc and 2019_Stap_steadystate_startfrom_Wilson_noice.nc contain additional data plotted in Fig. 2 and 3.

Beschreibung: It is still an open question how equilibrium warming in response to increasing radiative forcing – the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity S – depends on background climate. We here present palaeodata-based evidence on the state dependency of S, by using CO2 proxy data together with a 3-D ice-sheet-model-based reconstruction of land ice albedo over the last 5 million years (Myr). We find that the land ice albedo forcing depends non-linearly on the background climate, while any non-linearity of CO2 radiative forcing depends on the CO2 data set used. This non-linearity has not, so far, been accounted for in similar approaches due to previously more simplistic approximations, in which land ice albedo radiative forcing was a linear function of sea level change. The latitudinal dependency of ice-sheet area changes is important for the non-linearity between land ice albedo and sea level. In our set-up, in which the radiative forcing of CO2 and of the land ice albedo (LI) is combined, we find a state dependence in the calculated specific equilibrium climate sensitivity, S[CO2,LI], for most of the Pleistocene (last 2.1 Myr). During Pleistocene intermediate glaciated climates and interglacial periods, S[CO2,LI] is on average ~ 45 % larger than during Pleistocene full glacial conditions. In the Pliocene part of our analysis (2.6–5 Myr BP) the CO2 data uncertainties prevent a well-supported calculation for S[CO2,LI], but our analysis suggests that during times without a large land ice area in the Northern Hemisphere (e.g. before 2.82 Myr BP), the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity, S[CO2,LI], was smaller than during interglacials of the Pleistocene. We thus find support for a previously proposed state change in the climate system with the widespread appearance of northern hemispheric ice sheets. This study points for the first time to a so far overlooked non-linearity in the land ice albedo radiative forcing, which is important for similar palaeodata-based approaches to calculate climate sensitivity. However, the implications of this study for a suggested warming under CO2 doubling are not yet entirely clear since the details of necessary corrections for other slow feedbacks are not fully known and the uncertainties that exist in the ice-sheet simulations and global temperature reconstructions are large.

Beschreibung: We present results from ice volume simulations, performed using a conceptual model of transient ice volume variability. This model is based on the notion that at any level of a control parameter (C), in our case a CO2-index, an ice sheet will grow or shrink towards an equilibrium state (Veq). Details are given in the accompanying publication. For more information or data, please contact the authors. Dataset 2020_Stap_data_pism.xlsx contains the results from the simulations using the input C-Veq relation, and growth and decay rates, which mimic Miocene Antarctic ice sheet results obtained using the 3D thermodynamical ice sheet model PISM. Dataset 2020_Stap_data_linear.xlsx contains the results from the simulations using the simple linear C-Veq relation and growth and decay rates specified per experiment. Dataset 2020_Stap_data_hysteresis.xlsx contains the results from the simulations using the piecewise linear C-Veq relation with hysteresis, and growth and decay rates specified per experiment, which are discussed in the Appendix of the accompanying publication.

Beschreibung: Model output of a coupled ice sheet-climate model, inversely forced by benthic d18O over the past 38 million years. Sheet 1 contains the main results from the reference simulation: benthic d18O, CO2, ice-volume-equivalent sea level and global temperature. Sheet 2 contains global, Northern Hemisphere (40-80 deg N), and Antarctic (60-90 deg S) temperatures, from the reference run and the run with ice uncoupled, only albedo coupled, and only surface height coupled. Sheet 3 contains global temperature, from the reference run, and the runs with fixed PD ice, fixed LGM ice, and no ice. Details are given in the publication. More information or data can be obtained by contacting L.B. Stap (lennert.stap@awi.de).

Beschreibung: During the past five million yrs, benthic d18O records indicate a large range of climates, from warmer than today during the Pliocene Warm Period to considerably colder during glacials. Antarctic ice cores have revealed Pleistocene glacial-interglacial CO2 variability of 60-100 ppm, while sea level fluctuations of typically 125 m are documented by proxy data. However, in the pre-ice core period, CO2 and sea level proxy data are scarce and there is disagreement between different proxies and different records of the same proxy. This hampers comprehensive understanding of the long-term relations between CO2, sea level and climate. Here, we drive a coupled climate-ice sheet model over the past five million years, inversely forced by a stacked benthic d18O record. We obtain continuous simulations of benthic d18O, sea level and CO2 that are mutually consistent. Our model shows CO2 concentrations of 300 to 470 ppm during the Early Pliocene. Furthermore, we simulate strong CO2 variability during the Pliocene and Early Pleistocene. These features are broadly supported by existing and new d11B-based proxy CO2 data, but less by alkenone-based records. The simulated concentrations and variations therein are larger than expected from global mean temperature changes. Our findings thus suggest a smaller Earth System Sensitivity than previously thought. This is explained by a more restricted role of land ice variability in the Pliocene. The largest uncertainty in our simulation arises from the mass balance formulation of East Antarctica, which governs the variability in sea level, but only modestly affects the modeled CO2 concentrations.