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  • 1
    Book
    Book
    Meteorologische Interpretation von Depositionen in polaren Eisbohrkernen mit Hilfe von Paläosimulationen des Klimamodells ECHAM3 (1999)
    Köln : Inst. für Geophysik und Meteorologie der Univ. zu Köln
    Details Availability
    Keywords: Hochschulschrift ; Polargebiete ; Eis ; Bohrkern ; Deposition ; Paläoklimatologie ; Polargebiete ; Eis ; Bohrkern ; Deposition ; Paläoklimatologie
    Type of Medium: Book
    Pages: IV, 170 S. , Ill., graph. Darst.
    Series Statement: Mitteilungen aus dem Institut für Geophysik und Meteorologie der Universität zu Köln 125
    Language: German
    Note: Zugl.: Köln, Univ., Diss., 1998
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    GEOMAR CATALOGUE
    Link to Library Catalog
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  • 2
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    Meteorology and oceanography of the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean—a review of German achievements from the last decade (2016)
    In:  EPIC3Ocean Dynamics, 66 (11, pp. 1379-1413, ISSN: 1616-7341
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-12-03
    Description: In the early 1980s, Germany started a new era of modern Antarctic research. The Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI) was founded and important research platforms such as the German permanent station in Antarctica, today called Neumayer III, and the research icebreaker Polarstern were installed. The research primarily focused on the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean. In parallel, the German National Science Foundation (Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft DFG) started a Priority Program ‘Antarctic Research’ (since 2003 called SPP-1158) to foster and intensify the cooperation between scientists from different German universities and the AWI as well as other institutes involved in polar research. Here, we review the main findings in meteorology and oceanography of the last decade, funded by the priority program. The paper presents field observations and modelling efforts, extending from the stratosphere to the deep ocean. The research spans a large range of temporal and spatial scales, including the interaction of both climate components. In particular, radiative processes, the interaction of the changing ozone layer with large-scale atmospheric circulations, and changes in the sea ice cover are discussed. Climate and weather forecast models provide an insight into the water cycle and the climate change signals associated with synoptic cyclones. Investigations of the atmospheric boundary layer focus on the interaction between atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean in the vicinity of polynyas and leads. The chapters dedicated to polar oceanography review the interaction between the ocean and ice shelves with regard to the freshwater input and discuss the changes in water mass characteristics, ventilation and formation rates, crucial for the deepest limb of the global, climate relevant meridional overturning circulation. They also highlight the associated storage of anthropogenic carbon as well as the cycling of carbon, nutrients, and trace metals in the ocean with special emphasis on the Weddell Sea.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
    Format: application/pdf
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    PAPER (OA)
  • 3
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    Vb cyclones and associated rainfall extremes over Central Europe under present day and climate change conditions (2014)
    Schweizerbart
    Details
    Publication Date: 2014-03-14
    Print ISSN: 0941-2948
    Electronic ISSN: 1610-1227
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Published by Schweizerbart
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    PAPER CURRENT
  • 4
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    Quantifying the extremity of windstorms for regions featuring infrequent events (2017)
    Wiley
    In:  Atmospheric Science Letters, 18 (7). pp. 315-322.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-02-06
    Description: This paper introduces the Distribution-Independent Storm Severity Index (DI-SSI). The DI-SSI represents an approach to quantify the severity of exceptional surface wind speeds of large scale windstorms that is complementary to the SSI introduced by Leckebusch et al. While the SSI approaches the extremeness of a storm from a meteorological and potential loss (impact) perspective, the DI-SSI defines the severity in a more climatological perspective. The idea is to assign equal index values to wind speeds of the same singularity (e.g. the 99th percentile) under consideration of the shape of the tail of the local wind speed climatology. Especially in regions at the edge of the classical storm track, the DI-SSI shows more equitable severity estimates, e.g. for the extra-tropical cyclone Klaus. In order to compare the indices, their relation with the North Atlantic Oscillation is studied, which is one of the main large scale drivers for the intensity of European windstorms.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    DOI: 10.1002/asl.758
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 5
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    The central European floods of August 2002: Part 1 – Rainfall periods and flood development (2003)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    In:  Weather, 58 (10). pp. 371-377.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-04-28
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    DOI: 10.1256/wea.61.03A
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 6
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    The central European floods of August 2002: Part 2 - Synoptic causes and considerations with respect to climatic change (2003)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    In:  Weather, 58 (11). pp. 434-442.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-04-28
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    DOI: 10.1256/wea.61.03B
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 7
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    Evaluating decadal predictions of northern hemispheric cyclone frequencies (2014)
    Taylor & Francis
    In:  Tellus A: Dynamic meteorology and oceanography, 66 . p. 22830.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-11-25
    Description: Mid-latitudinal cyclones are a key factor for understanding regional anomalies in primary meteorological parameters such as temperature or precipitation. Extreme cyclones can produce notable impacts on human society and economy, for example, by causing enormous economic losses through wind damage. Based on 41 annually initialised (1961–2001) hindcast ensembles, this study evaluates the ability of a single-model decadal forecast system (MPI-ESM-LR) to provide skilful probabilistic three-category forecasts (enhanced, normal or decreased) of winter (ONDJFM) extra-tropical cyclone frequency over the Northern Hemisphere with lead times from 1 yr up to a decade. It is shown that these predictions exhibit some significant skill, mainly for lead times of 2–5 yr, especially over the North Atlantic and Pacific. Skill for intense cyclones is generally higher than for all detected systems. A comparison of decadal hindcasts from two different initialisation techniques indicates that initialising from reanalysis fields yields slightly better results for the first forecast winter (month 10–15), while initialisation based on an assimilation experiment provides better skill for lead times between 2 and 5 yr. The reasons and mechanisms behind this predictive skill are subject to future work. Preliminary analyses suggest a strong relationship of the model’s skill over the North Atlantic with the ability to predict upper ocean temperatures modulating lower troposphere baroclinicity for the respective area and time scales.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    DOI: 10.3402/tellusa.v66.22830
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 8
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    Probabilistic evaluation of decadal prediction skill regarding Northern Hemisphere winter storms (2016)
    Schweizerbart
    In:  Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 25 (6). pp. 721-738.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-02-01
    Description: Winter wind storms related to intense extra-tropical cyclones are meteorological extreme events, often with major impacts on economy and human life, especially for Europe and the mid-latitudes. Hence, skillful decadal predictions regarding the frequency of their occurrence would be of great socio-economic value. The present paper extends the study of Kruschke et al. (2014) in several aspects. First, this study is situated in a more impact oriented context by analyzing the frequency of potentially damaging wind storm events instead of targeting at cyclones as general meteorological features which was done by Kruschke et al. (2014). Second, this study incorporates more data sets by analyzing five decadal hindcast experiments – 41 annual (1961–2001) initializations integrated for ten years each – set up with different initialization strategies. However, all experiments are based on the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model in a low-resolution configuration (MPI-ESM-LR). Differing combinations of these five experiments allow for more robust estimates of predictive skill (due to considerably larger ensemble size) and systematic comparisons of the underlying initialization strategies. Third, the hindcast experiments are corrected for model bias and potential drifts over lead time by means of a novel parametric approach, accounting for non-stationary model drifts. We analyze whether skillful probabilistic three-category forecasts (enhanced, normal or decreased) can be provided regarding winter (ONDJFM) wind storm frequencies over the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Skill is assessed by using climatological probabilities and uninitialized transient simulations as reference forecasts. It is shown that forecasts of average winter wind storm frequencies for winters 2–5 and winters 2–9 are skillful over large parts of the NH. However, most of this skill is associated with external forcing from transient greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations, already included in the uninitialized simulations. Only over East Asia and the Northwest Pacific, the Northwest Atlantic as well as the Eastern Mediterranean the initialized hindcasts perform significantly better than the uninitialized simulations. While no significant differences are evident between anomaly- and full-field-initialization, initializing the model's ocean component from GECCO2-ocean-reanalysis yields slightly better results than from ORA-S4, especially over the Northeast Pacific. Additionally, it is shown that the novel parametric drift-correction approach – estimating potential cubic drifts with parameters linearly changing in time – is more appropriate than the standard procedure – estimating constant model drifts via the lead-time-dependent bias – and, hence, yields higher skill estimates.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    DOI: 10.1127/metz/2015/0641
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 9
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    Summer Floods in Central Europe – Climate Change Track? (2005)
    Springer
    In:  Natural Hazards, 36 (1-2). pp. 165-189.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-06-25
    Description: In Central Europe, river flooding has been recently recognized as a major hazard, in particular after the 1997 Odra /Oder flood, the 2001 Vistula flood, and the most destructive 2002 deluge on the Labe/Elbe. Major recent floods in central Europe are put in perspective and their common elements are identified. Having observed that flood risk and vulnerability are likely to have grown in many areas, one is curious to understand the reasons for growth. These can be sought in socio-economic domain (humans encroaching into floodplain areas), terrestrial systems (land-cover changes – urbanization, deforestation, reduction of wetlands, river regulation), and climate system. The atmospheric capacity to absorb moisture, its potential water content, and thus potential for intense precipitation, are likely to increase in a warmer climate. The changes in intense precipitation and high flows are examined, based on observations and projections. Study of projected changes in intense precipitation, using climate models, for several areas of central Europe, and in particular, for drainage basins of the upper Labe/Elbe, Odra/Oder, and Vistula is reported. Significant changes have been identified between future projections and the reference period, of relevance to flood hazard in areas, which have experienced severe recent floodings
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-004-4547-6
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 10
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    The 2003 European summer heatwaves and drought - synoptic diagnosis and impacts (2004)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    In:  Weather, 59 (8). pp. 209-216.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-04-28
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    DOI: 10.1256/wea.73.04
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
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